Bitcoin’s (BTC) slide into September comes with an uncomfortable reminder for traders that history is not on their side.

The largest token by market capitalization has declined in nine of the last 14 September months, with an average monthly loss of around 12%.

This seasonality looms large again in 2025. Bitcoin opened the week near $110,000, its weakest level in nearly two months, and total crypto market capitalization has slipped to $3.74 trillion, reaching a three-week low.

BTC prices have been flat over the past 24 hours, with Solana’s SOL (SOL) leading gains at 4%, XRP XRP$2.8309 posting 1% and Cardano’s ADA (ADA) rising 1.5%.

Traders say the combination of macro uncertainty, fragile sentiment, and thinning volumes leaves little room for error heading into what has historically been the toughest month on the calendar.

The technicals don’t inspire much confidence either. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, noted that the broader capitalization chart “continues to record a series of lower lows, signaling a downward trend.”

He pointed to Bitcoin’s failure to hold $112,000 and warned of “further decline toward the $105,000 area,” a level that has long acted as support before the psychological $100,000 barrier.

The crypto fear index has slipped back toward 40, its lowest since April, suggesting nerves are rising before they’ve fully broken.

In 2017, bitcoin dropped nearly 8% in September despite the euphoric rally that carried it to $20,000 later that year. In 2019, the token lost almost 14% in September, foreshadowing months of sideways action.

Even in the latest cycle, September 2021 and 2022 both saw steep drawdowns, reminding traders that liquidity drains and macro jitters often coincide with the end of summer.

This year, those headwinds are visible in ETF flows. After steady accumulation through much of August, spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. recorded net outflows of $440 million last week.

Ether ETFs, which launched just last year, posted more than $1 billion in inflows, marking a rare bright spot but also a sign that capital may be rotating rather than growing overall.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data shows spot ETFs have now absorbed more than 1.3 million BTC, nearly 6% of total supply, putting them on par with the largest exchanges for market share.

The risk is that support levels break before macro relief arrives. Non-farm payrolls due Friday are expected to show just 45,000 new jobs, confirming a slowing U.S. labor market.

A soft print would strengthen the case for a September rate cut from the Fed, a catalyst that could flip sentiment back to risk-on. Until then, traders are paying up for downside hedges.

Options data shows the strongest demand for puts in weeks, with skew leaning firmly bearish, FxPro’s Kuptsikevich noted, calling for caution among intra-day traders.

A fog of uncertainty continues to hang over global markets as crypto assets trade sideways, ahead of this week’s U.S. Federal Reserve meeting.

While equities briefly found their footing on Monday, crypto markets remained defensive after Friday’s $1.2 billion futures liquidation, which shook out overleveraged longs and sent altcoins sharply lower over the weekend.

Bitcoin rose above $108,000 in the U.S. morning session on Monday, then slid to as low as $106,500 due to profit-taking. However, buying activity later moved prices above $107,000 in the Asian morning hours on Tuesday.

BTC ETFs saw $1.4 billion in net inflows over the past week, reaffirming the role of spot products as price shock absorbers even during broader pullbacks.

Meanwhile, ether (ETH) rose 1.5% over 24 hours to $2,609, still trailing Bitcoin’s ETF-led strength. Solana’s SOL and Tron’s TRX remained firm, up 1.5% and 2.1% respectively, though the broader tone remains cautious among traders.

Gold and oil, both traditional safe-havens during geopolitical crises, surged in early trading after U.S. President Donald Trump unexpectedly called for the evacuation of Tehran in a statement from the G7 summit. That sparked a mini-rush into defensive assets.

Bitcoin, however, lagged the move in a familiar pattern, according to analysts.

“Bitcoin often shows a delayed reaction to macro trends, so while gold and oil are surging on geopolitical and inflationary pressures, BTC may take time to catch up,” said Eugene Cheung, Chief Commercial Officer at OSL, in a note to CoinDesk.

“However, if risk sentiment shifts and investors look for alternative stores of value, Bitcoin could see renewed momentum in the coming weeks if this week’s Fed meeting comes in as expected for investors.”

That expectation is now center stage. Markets are overwhelmingly pricing in a hold from the Fed, but attention will be focused on the tone and language of Chair Powell’s comments, particularly regarding inflation and tariffs.

“We’re expecting the Fed to hold rates steady this week as they wait to see how tariffs will affect the economy,” said Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE, in a Telegram message. “Inflation is easing and jobs are holding strong, so there’s no rush to cut or raise just yet. They’ll likely wait for more data before making any big moves later this year.”

Others see a subtle shift emerging, opining that a dovish pivot may not be announced outright, but the seeds could be planted.

“The Fed will likely see some dovish risk on the margin,” said Augustine Fan, Head of Insights at SignalPlus.

“The market will see whether the committee will use the recent string in downside inflation misses and weaker jobless claims to justify a more pronounced dovish pivot. We don’t expect a whole lot out of the meeting, and the near-term focus will remain on the Iran-Israel situation,” Fan said.