Despite experiencing a significant plunge from ATH levels earlier last month, the Bitcoin price continues to test crucial levels that could shape the trajectory of its next move. A fresh analysis from crypto market expert Casitrades suggests that the coming days could define whether the broader market will face a macro correction or extend its bullish momentum. For now, Fibonacci zones, Elliott Wave structures, and Relative Strength Index (RSI) behaviour align to build a critical narrative around BTC’s price direction. 

Possible Scenarios For Bitcoin Price Macro Correction 

On Friday, Casitrades explained in an X social media post that Bitcoin’s recent price surge has tested the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level around  $116,000, an important milestone in the recovery phase. Interestingly, despite this sudden push higher, the RSI highlighted on the price chart is yet to show the exhaustion one would typically expect at a major top. This suggests buyers may still have room to drive prices further upward before hitting a ceiling. 

Notably, the analyst pointed out $118,000 as the next critical level to watch, noting that it coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the 1.236 C-wave target within the developing Wave 2 structure. Casitrades has described this area as a decisive confluence point. A sharp rejection here could confirm that Bitcoin’s bull run has officially ended, reinforcing the theory that the cryptocurrency remains locked in a Wave 2 macro correction phase. 

On the other hand, the analyst noted that forming a top around the decisive confluence point would confirm that BTC is not ready to challenge or break into new all-time highs and could instead retrace deeper. As the chart illustrates, potential downside targets lie well below Bitcoin’s current price levels above $115,800, hinting that a failure at $118,000 could lead to a steeper correction that might drag the cryptocurrency back into the $110,000 – $106,000 zone in the near term. 

$122,000 Marks Final Test For Macro Correction

While $118,000 remains the first line of resistance for Bitcoin, Casitrades highlighted that the cryptocurrency could extend its rally higher into the $120,000 – $122,000 zone if momentum persists. This level is viewed as the final test that will decide whether the macro correction holds or fails. It aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, making it an even more formidable resistance area. 

The expectation is that if Bitcoin’s RSI shows signs of exhaustion and the cryptocurrency faces strong rejection in this region, the correction could be swift and significant. In this scenario, Bitcoin would set up for a macro downturn, confirming the theory that the rally from recent lows has merely been a corrective leg. 

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The projected correction could then reset the broader structure, allowing for healthier long-term price action. However, if Bitcoin manages to break through $122,000 convincingly, Casitrades notes that it would invalidate the macro correction narrative altogether and potentially send it to price levels between $122,000 – $124,000. 

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s price rally has hit turbulence over the past 48 hours, and this has opened the door for bearish voices to resurface. After reaching a fresh high of $124,128 just three days ago, the leading cryptocurrency has since declined by about 4.8%, sliding back to the $117,000 to $118,000 price zone at the time of writing. This pullback has opened up a possibility that the much-anticipated macro top may already be in, and further downside may be possible if there is a lack of bullish momentum.

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Analyst Maps Out Bearish Bitcoin Wave Structure

Bitcoin showed signs of building on in early August after bouncing off a low around $112,000. However, after its latest high at $124,128, sellers quickly stepped in, pulling the price down. The decline has been accompanied by fading short-term momentum. Although it might be too early to conclude, relative strength index (RSI) readings are starting to point to a bearish divergence on the 4-hour candlestick timeframe chart.

Taking to the social media platform X, crypto analyst CasiTrades outlined what they believe could be the start of a larger ABC corrective structure for Bitcoin. According to the projection, Bitcoin may be entering Wave A, which consists of a five-wave corrective structure that could send the price to as low as $77,000 at the macro 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. 

The roadmap of this price crash envisions an initial Wave 1 drop to $112,000, a brief Wave 2 recovery back to $120,000, and then another Wave 3 decline into the $89,000 range. After this, the next step is a Wave 4 retest break of $100,000 before reversing into Wave 5, which brings the ultimate Wave A bottom at $77,000.

Chart Image From X: CasiTrades

The accompanying chart posted by the analyst shows the wave counts with subwave precision. Interestingly, the analyst also pointed out that the ultimate macro target for the end of this correction is at $60,000, right at the golden 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. This is at the macro level and can only come to fruition if the ABC corrective waves play out to completion.

A Bearish Tone Amidst Bullish Predictions

This analysis introduces a sobering counterpoint at a time when many forecasts continue to paint Bitcoin as being on track for $150,000 and beyond. Even though strong institutional inflows and technical milestones, such as the realized price flipping above the 200-day moving average are bullish indicators, the bearish scenario from CasiTrades could still be valid. 

If Bitcoin fails to reclaim bullish momentum, the current correction could change into something deeper, making the $124,000 high not just a pause but the macro top of this cycle.

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Although many cryptocurrencies have largely followed Bitcoin’s movements this cycle, CasiTrade’s analysis isn’t a bearish case for the entire crypto market. According to the analyst, if this bearish case plays out, it could cause the long-discussed capital rotation out of Bitcoin and into large-cap altcoins, some of which may surge to new all-time price highs even as Bitcoin retraces. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $118,203.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

August 11th Bitfinex alpha | Macro to determine BTC price

Bitcoin rebounded from its $112,000 low and regained a range floor of $115,800. This recovery has restored short-term confidence along with a steady accumulation of Crypto Treasury Firms currently holding nearly $90 billion in digital assets, breaking past highs in the range of nearly $119,500, but is still unclear if this breakout via resistance is maintained. The price is waving around a short-term holder cost-based standard of $106,709, with conditions still in place to maintain “warm but not overheated” conditions, consistent with the bull phase during the cycle.

The market is balanced, but highly sensitive to macrocatalysts, as 70% of the short-term holder supply still cools down profit and profitable activity to 45%. So, this week’s key US inflation data can determine whether BTC will push a new all-time high or return it to $110,000.

After months of mildness in the financial markets, the confluence of changes in trade policy, evolving bond market dynamics and soft economic data sets the stage on a more unstable setting near the year. Pending US tariffs threaten to raise costs, disrupt supply chains and threaten pressure jobs, but the rising premium in the bond market (now 0.65%) has increased uncertainty about future Fed policies, especially if inflation accelerates after dependency. Manufacturing orders fell 4.8% in June, highlighting uneven demand and the challenges companies face when securing goods ahead of the holiday season turmoil.

The labour market is also cooling, slowing employment growth, significant downward revisions to previous employment data, and service sector activity stagnates just above the contraction level. While rising input costs in the services sector increase inflationary pressures, it increases workers’ productivity – a 2.4% increase in the second quarter – provides a critical buffer, suggesting that technology-driven efficiency improvements may help sustain growth in soft employment environments.

In the crypto space, Bitmine Immersion Technologies has rapidly built the world’s largest Ethereum Treasury Department, accumulating over 833,000 ETH, worth $29 billion in just five weeks, and has established itself as a leading institutional player as a backer for ARK, Pantera, Galaxy Digital and more. Changes in policy under President Trump are also reshaping the industry’s landscape. Recent executive orders could open the doors of 401(k) and other retirement plans and drive mainstream adoption, including alternative assets, including digital assets. Another order will prohibit politicized decubiting, explicitly protecting crypto companies’ access to banking services and dismantling barriers set up under previous regulatory regimes.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-macro-to-determine-btc-price/feed/ 0 52708 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoins-macro-mirror-global-liquidity-trends-hint-at-bullish-continuation/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoins-macro-mirror-global-liquidity-trends-hint-at-bullish-continuation/#respond Mon, 11 Aug 2025 19:23:41 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoins-macro-mirror-global-liquidity-trends-hint-at-bullish-continuation/ Bitcoin’s price movements often reflect broader macroeconomic trends. Analysts have uncovered a consistent pattern where BTC’s price follows these shifts with a roughly 12-week delay. With global liquidity now picking up steam, the macro-level signal now points toward a potential bullish phase ahead for BTC.

How Liquidity Trends Fit Into Bitcoin’s Long-Term Cycle

In an X post, Crypto expert MartyParty pointed out a compelling pattern in Bitcoin’s price behavior, stating that its high-timeframe follows global liquidity, indicated on the chart as the blue line following the red line lagged 12 weeks. 

Currently, the global liquidity curve is on the rise, and the US has not started issuing new liquidity, meaning the current surge is being fueled externally. MartyParty argues that this global liquidity wave is primed to push BTC toward the $125,000 mark on foreign liquidity issuance.

The current macro thesis suggests that BTC could reach $140,000, driven purely by the influx of foreign liquidity. In the meantime, the upcoming US liquidity issuance is expected to begin within the next quarter and will last up to a year to eighteen months. 

Once the US liquidity kicks in, combined with expected rate cuts that will lower borrowing costs, it will create a compelling setup for the BTC price to potentially rally to $250,000 in the medium to long term. 

Daan Crypto Trades has revealed that Bitcoin’s impressive resilience and steady upward trend relative to the US stock market have been trending since its bottom in 2022. Over this period, BTC has experienced only four moderate corrections ranging between 20% and 30%, while delivering a 420% gain from bottom to top. This steady outperformance suggests that BTC has carved out a strong position as a growth asset, especially in risk-on market environments.

How Bitcoin’s Current Energy Value Growth Differs From Past Cycles

Another notable development is the Bitcoin Energy Value, which just reached a new all-time high of $135,000 per BTC. According to StarPlatinum, in previous market cycles, reaching such peaks in Energy Value has been associated with sharp price moves or big drops.

Currently, the rise in Energy Value is gradual and steady, reflecting a more natural market progression. This data reveals several key points about BTC’s current state. First, BTC is stronger and more mature than ever, with demand steadily increasing over time.

Despite hitting a new all-time high on Energy Value, the current price still sits about 15% below this metric, indicating there’s still room to run. Historically, the BTC cycle top occurred when its price surged 40% to 60% above its Energy Value. Meanwhile, many in the crypto community have spent three years saying BTC is close to the top, only to see those calls followed by waves of FOMO.

Macro guru Luke Gromen says the rise of Bitcoin (BTC) treasury companies is a logical response to the US government’s continued debasement of the dollar.

In a new video update on YouTube, Gromen says investors are currently reacting to a large-scale financial bubble that has been “kicked upstairs” through the stock, banking, and housing markets before finally being pushed into the Treasury market.

Gromen notes that the only way for the US government to maintain the bubble – rather than face a default or a severe depression to get its fiscal situation back in order – is to devalue its debt via inflation.

Now that such a reality is becoming clear to market participants, Gromen says it makes perfect sense that many corporate entities are creating shareholder value by taking advantage of BTC’s strict supply cap.

“In my opinion, it’s critical to remember how we got here. We had an equity bubble, it popped, we kicked the problem upstairs to the banking sector and the housing sector, it created a housing bubble, it popped, we kicked the problem upstairs to the Treasury market by backstopping virtually everything… 

Now the credit risk is at the Treasury market level, except, Treasuries have no credit risk. The government can always just print the money to make interest payments and avoid default. So there’s no credit risk in Treasuries, only inflation risk. 

So in my opinion, what we’re seeing in Bitcoin treasury companies in particular is logical, in light of this primrose path we’ve followed over the past 25 years. As more and more people begin to realize the only way out of this is severe devaluation of US debt, of US sovereign debt, of Western sovereign debt.

In that case, I would expect credit spreads to remain relatively low, because all else equal, I’d rather own an Apple bond or a Microsoft bond than a US Treasury bond.”

At time of writing, the US government’s national debt is about $37 trillion.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Bitcoin remains trapped in a tight consolidation range that began over two weeks ago, fueling expectations of an imminent breakout or breakdown. The lack of decisive movement has created a state of market indecision, with neither bulls nor bears taking full control. Price continues to hover between key support and resistance levels, showing no strong signs of accumulation or distribution.

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According to new data from CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase—a metric that reflects the overall temperature of the market—currently sits at a neutral level. This indicates that market conditions are balanced, with no clear dominance from buyers or sellers. Profit-taking remains moderate, ETF inflows have slowed, and long-term holder activity is stable, all of which support the view that the market is in a wait-and-see mode.

The current structure suggests that a major move is likely approaching. With volatility compressed and the market treading water, traders and investors are closely watching for a signal that will define the next leg. Whether Bitcoin breaks out toward new highs or rolls over into a correction, the coming days will be crucial in shaping the short-term trend and broader sentiment across the crypto landscape.

Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Signals Neutral Market

Top analyst Axel Adler recently shared insights into the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase—a metric that condenses several key market indicators into a single scalar value, offering a simplified yet powerful view of where Bitcoin stands in its broader macro cycle. The metric combines data points such as overvaluation assessments, profit-taking activity, long-term holder (LTH) selling pressure, and ETF inflows to gauge whether the market is overheated or entering a favorable accumulation zone.

When the Heat Macro Phase reaches high values near 50%, it typically signals that these components are at their upper historical bounds—suggesting an overheated market that may be nearing a distribution phase or a correction. Conversely, readings closer to 30% reflect cooler market conditions: lower profit-taking, modest ETF activity, and minimal LTH selling. These scenarios often indicate that the market is undervalued and ripe for accumulation.

Currently, the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase sits at 44%, putting it squarely in the neutral zone. Adler explains that this level reflects a balanced market environment—neither overbought nor undervalued. There’s no clear dominance by bulls or bears. Profit-taking is beginning to accelerate, but it hasn’t reached a level that would suggest a broader exit is underway.

This mid-range reading aligns with Bitcoin’s recent price action, which has remained in a tight consolidation for over two weeks. As the metric hovers in neutral territory, it reinforces the idea that the next significant move—whether upward toward new highs or downward in a correction—will depend entirely on upcoming price behavior. For now, the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase acts as a market barometer, signaling patience as investors wait for the next breakout or breakdown to confirm direction.

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BTC Price Action Details: Tight Consolidation

Bitcoin continues to consolidate between well-defined support and resistance levels, currently trading at $118,269.81 on the 12-hour chart. The price action has remained confined within a horizontal range, with upper resistance at $122,077 and strong support at $115,724. This range has persisted for over two weeks, reflecting a phase of indecision where neither bulls nor bears have asserted dominance.

The 50, 100, and 200 SMAs—located at $116,342, $111,334, and $106,668, respectively—are all trending upward, suggesting that the broader structure remains bullish. BTC is currently trading above all key moving averages, which are acting as dynamic support. However, volume has decreased significantly, indicating a lack of conviction from both sides of the market.

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The tightening structure suggests that a breakout is approaching. If buyers manage to push BTC above $122K with strong volume, the next leg higher toward new all-time highs could follow. On the other hand, a breakdown below $115K would invalidate the current setup and open the door to a deeper correction.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Macro strategist Luke Gromen warns that the US dollar will keep losing value amid a ballooning $36.60 trillion national debt.

In a new YouTube update, Gromen says the US, with its record-level national debt, is now forced to choose between sacrificing the bond market or letting the dollar fall to maintain financial and economic stability.

According to the macro expert, the US government will ultimately resort to debasing the dollar by printing more money to manage its debt, rather than allowing Treasury yields to soar in an effort to attract investors.

“What we’re seeing in these bond markets, US and more importantly for the moment Japan and the UK, is a choice. You got to sacrifice your currency or you to sacrifice your bond market. And our view, really the base underpinning of our view why gold and Bitcoin are trading where they are trading, is they always choose to sacrifice the currency…

Because if they sacrifice the bond market and let rates just go up and up and up, given their debt levels, they ultimately end up sacrificing both: the currency and the bond market because higher rates drive receipts down and interest up and that means interest quickly goes above your receipts.

And when that happens, that drives essentially hyperinflation of the currency. Either they can’t pay the bonds and the bonds back the currency or more likely, they print the money just to pay the interest and drive a version of hyperinflation.

So they always choose to sacrifice the currency over sacrificing the bond market when debt levels are high as they are and that’s why, because sacrificing the bond market only buys them a little bit of time, and they ultimately end up sacrificing both.”
 

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Popular macroeconomics expert Lyn Alden isn’t sold on Bitcoin’s (BTC) functionality as a medium of exchange yet.

Alden explains in a new analysis that people with specific payment issues like capital controls and payment de-platforming find BTC useful, but they can often also use less-volatile stablecoins as short-term solutions to those same problems.

“There are some very well-meaning Bitcoin proponents trying to convince Bitcoin holders to spend it more. I don’t particularly view that as a sustainable practice. Bitcoin is not going to catch on as a charity. In order for spending it to catch on persistently at scale (i.e. not just billions of dollar-equivalents in annual global medium-of-exchange volume, but trillions), it has to solve problems for spenders and/or recipients that other solutions are not doing. And at this stage of adoption, that’s not necessarily the case, especially with capital gains taxes applicable to every single transaction and with options like stablecoins for near-term spending needs where volatility needs to be low.”

Alden says Bitcoin instead has value due to its “optionality.”

“Owning a sound, liquid, fungible, portable store of value that is going through its adoption phase gives the owner some perks, or options, that other assets do not. Mainly, they can bring their store of value wherever they want in the world without relying on central counterparties and credit. It also allows them to make crossborder payments, including to deplatformed recipients, through substantial friction even if they are staying put where they are. They might not be able to ubiquitously pay with it, but if need be they can find ways to convert it to local currency in most environments that they find themselves in, and in some cases can indeed pay with it directly.”

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Bitcoin (BTC) is in a “waiting game,” trading between $100,000 and $110,000, with analysts highlighting the need for a macro catalyst to break the top of the channel.

The latest “Bitfinex Alpha” report noted lighter spot activity, softer taker-buy flow, and profit-taking by wallets that had bought below $80,000 in April as the reasons behind the consolidation period.

The report cited spot volume declines and a weaker appetite for futures as signs that the rally from April 9’s $74,634 low has stalled. Exchange data showed $58.6 million in long liquidations and $65.2 million in short liquidations within 24 hours, flushing out leverage on both sides. 

Open interest in perp and dated contracts dropped 7.2% to 334,000 BTC, indicating forced position cuts and a cleaner derivatives landscape. 

The report noted that June corresponds with the close of a historically strong second quarter, with the average return in this period since 2013 standing at nearly 27%. Meanwhile, the third quarter averages only 6%, often with tighter ranges.

Support between $94,000 and $99,000 is still attracting bids, bolstered by the short-term holder’s realized price, which is now nearing $98,779. 

Traders stepped in when the spot price dipped to $98,579 on June 22, lifting the pair to $108,250 after geopolitical tensions eased. 

The report framed the current structure as a “waiting game” in which bulls and bears balance out until fresh demand arrives, most likely from exchange-traded fund flows during US trading hours.

Macro drivers under watch

Nicolai Søndergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, flagged Federal Reserve policy as the primary variable. He noted that the market will likely react positively once the Fed announces rate cuts, adding that risk assets need cheaper funding and better liquidity to attract new capital. 

Søndergaard tracks liquidation heat maps and institutional wallet signals to gauge whether large buyers accumulate or stand aside.

Bitfinex Alpha echoed that view, stating that exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows must accelerate and global liquidity must expand before Bitcoin can clear the upper band of its two-month range. 

Without deeper cash allocations, spot bids fade near $110,000, and sellers cap the price by trimming their positions. 

Still, the report saw no imminent breakdown as long as key support levels hold and structural positioning remains constructive.

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Macro strategist Luke Gromen unpacks how developments in the energy market could directly impact Bitcoin (BTC).

In a new thread on the social media platform X, Gromen tells his 340,800 followers that he thinks gold and Bitcoin are poised to surge if energy prices spike.

“1. Whenever physical [gold] is revalued to a big multiple of oil, energy prices in fiat will skyrocket, sending gold far higher on fiat.

2. When energy prices in fiat skyrocket, the price of BTC will also skyrocket in fiat.

And the stock-to-flow ratio of BTC is way higher than gold.” 

When asked about the connection between oil and BTC, the macro expert explains that surging energy prices fuel inflation, which in turn puts pressure on the bond market.

“Because the bond market will need to be capped with printed money to prevent the inflation driven by a rise in energy prices from collapsing it…

Rising energy prices beyond a point will break bonds.

Once that happens, either money will have to be printed to cap yields to maintain government solvency, or sovereign debt will nominally get restructured.

Assets with no counterparties should outperform (gold, BTC).”

When inflation is on the up and up, bond investors demand higher yields (returns) to make up for the loss in purchasing power. Bonds locked into lower yields typically witness a drop in value as investors rush out of assets that offer little to no real returns, triggering a bond market collapse. Gromen thinks that the Fed will be forced to buy bonds with printed money to prevent a collapse, creating favorable conditions for Bitcoin and gold.

Gromen also notes that at the most fundamental level, Bitcoin is a product of the energy market as miners rely on massive amounts of electricity to mine BTC.

“Electricity used to support BTC and its price is very real, enough to power much of the US continent.”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is worth $106,401.

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