Bitcoin is trading at a decisive point after recently setting new all-time highs, but momentum appears to be shifting. Despite briefly pushing past $120,000, BTC failed to sustain levels above its record, and the breakout above ATH remains unconfirmed. This lack of follow-through has fueled bearish speculation, with some analysts warning that the market could be facing increased downside risk in the short term.

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At the same time, on-chain data paints a more constructive picture for long-term stability. According to the latest insights, the Long-Term Holder (LTH) cohort—those holding Bitcoin between six months and two years—has significantly increased its supply. Since April, when BTC was trading at $83,000, their holdings have grown from 3.551 million BTC to 5.191 million BTC, a remarkable increase of 1.64 million BTC.

This accumulation suggests strong conviction among seasoned investors, even as short-term volatility challenges the market. While traders focus on whether Bitcoin can reclaim $120,000 and establish a firm breakout, the ongoing buildup by long-term holders reinforces the broader bullish structure. The clash between short-term weakness and long-term strength will likely define Bitcoin’s next major move.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Signal Strength

According to top analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s latest test of the all-time high at $118,000 showed a very different behavior compared to past cycles. During this move, long-term holders (LTHs) who have been holding coins between six months and two years engaged in some profit-taking. Data reveals their seven-day average spending climbed to 20,000 BTC. However, this level is far below the typical distribution spikes of previous cycles, where spending often surged to between 40,000 and 70,000 BTC.

This more moderate selling activity suggests that the conviction among long-term holders remains strong. Rather than aggressively taking profits, many are choosing to continue accumulating or simply holding their positions. Adler highlights that accumulation still outweighs distribution, reflecting confidence in the market’s future direction. Such behavior from experienced participants typically signals a healthier, more sustainable bull phase, where selling pressure is absorbed without disrupting the broader uptrend.

Despite this encouraging backdrop, Bitcoin faces a crucial technical test. To confirm the strength of the latest move, BTC needs to decisively push above the $125,000 level. A breakout beyond this resistance would likely validate the resilience shown by long-term holders and open the path toward further price discovery.

If bulls succeed, the combination of institutional demand, long-term accumulation, and reduced selling pressure could drive the next major rally. Conversely, failure to reclaim $125,000 in the near term might give bears room to test lower levels before the next leg up.

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Testing Support After ATH Rejection

Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart shows price retreating after a sharp rejection near $123,200, just below the recent all-time high at $124,000. Following this failed breakout attempt, BTC has slipped back toward $117,300, where it is currently holding above the key confluence of the 100 and 200 moving averages.

This zone between $116,900 and $117,600 is acting as immediate support. A decisive breakdown here could expose further downside toward $115,000. However, the moving averages continue to slope upward, reflecting an underlying bullish structure despite the short-term weakness.

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The repeated rejection at $123,000–$124,000 highlights the importance of this resistance. Bulls will need to reclaim this zone with conviction to confirm momentum and extend the uptrend toward higher levels. Until then, the market remains in a consolidation phase, with traders closely watching if support at the $117K region holds.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Nearly three-quarters of all daily deposits across major exchanges consisted of coins that had last moved less than 24 hours earlier, pointing to high-frequency repositioning activity rather than strategic distribution.

This type of churn, dominated by recent outputs and large-value transactions, suggests that the bulk of near-term sell-side pressure stems from professional entities cycling liquidity or managing inventory rather than from broader capitulation among long-term participants.

The dominance of ultra-fresh supply is consistent across the dataset. On average, coins younger than 24 hours comprised 75.3% of all daily inflows between April 6 and May 6. The highest single-day reading occurred on May 6, when this bracket represented 86.2% of all inflows.

Another spike in short-term coin movement appeared on May 3, when the 1–7 day age band surged to 44.3%. This was the only day in the sample when longer, though still recent, coin movement outpaced same-day turnover.

Despite these variations, the overarching pattern remains unchanged: the vast majority of inflows are driven by coins that were either newly minted or recently circulated rather than by older or untouched holdings.

Long-term holders, meanwhile, have shown almost no activity in this period. Coins older than one year comprised just 0.7% of all inflows on average, peaking at 7.6% on April 10 but otherwise remaining below 1%. This lack of participation from older supply indicates that deep-pocketed holders continue to exercise patience, opting to hold rather than take advantage of recent price strength. Their absence also limits the probability of an abrupt surge in exchange-based supply that could weigh on price action in the short term.

The nature of inflows is further clarified by examining the value distribution of these deposits. Transfers between 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC accounted for a dominant share of daily inflow value, averaging 47.8% over the past week and reaching as high as 67.8% on May 3. These block-sized transfers signal activity from institutional desks, custodians, or ETF market makers rather than retail participants.

Supporting this, the 1,000–10,000 BTC band grew from a 7.9% average share in mid-April to 10.7% in early May, with a notable 30.5% spike on April 29. Although infrequent, a single 10,000+ BTC transfer was recorded on April 25, contributing 2.1% of that day’s volume. Large-scale movements like this one are rare and likely represent internal rebalancing or cross-platform transfers rather than simple liquidation.

Retail activity appears minimal by contrast. Inflows below 1 BTC averaged just 3% across the entire period. This low figure reinforces the idea that current exchange activity is primarily driven by institutional actors rather than a groundswell of smaller traders or panic selling. It also highlights the ongoing detachment between retail sentiment and market structure, as price volatility continues to be shaped primarily by large-scale movements rather than grassroots engagement.

When age and value are combined, a clear pattern emerges. The overwhelming share of exchange deposits originates from coins moved within the same day, and those deposits are increasingly delivered in large batches. This convergence of freshness and scale points toward automated or desk-based activity such as arbitrage, liquidity provisioning, or ETF-related demand. This behavior differs from past market tops or panic-driven phases, where older supply resurfaces, and smaller holders dominate the outflow pattern.

The persistent absence of older coins suggests that long-term holders are not seizing recent price moves as an opportunity to exit. Instead, exchange deposits remain structurally tied to professional cycles. The dominance of block-sized transfers also implies that any sustained price swings will likely require confirmation through more profound shifts in coin age distribution or a rise in retail-sized flow.

Finally, the reappearance of larger whale-sized inflows in early May followed the changes in Bitcoin derivatives markets, including a jump in open interest and increased directional positioning. The expansion of the 1,000–10,000 BTC bracket could be an early indicator of strategic reallocation or upcoming large-volume trades, especially as ETF flows and institutional interest continue to dominate spot volumes.

The post Bitcoin exchange inflows show heavy institutional activity, virtually no LTH selling appeared first on CryptoSlate.

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Following an extensive price correction in the past three months, the Bitcoin bull market continues to hang in the balance. Despite a modest price rebound in April, the premier cryptocurrency is yet to display a strong intent to resume its bull rally amidst a lack of positive market factors. However, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. has highlighted a promising development that could signal major upside potential for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Looking To Halt Selling Pressure

In a recent post on X, Adler Jr. shared an important update in Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) activity, which could prove significantly positive for the broader BTC market.

Using on-chain data from CryptoQuant, the renowned analyst reports that selling pressure by long-term holders, i.e. amount of LTH holdings on exchanges, has now hit its lowest point at 1.1% over the past year. This development indicates that Bitcoin LTH are now opting to hold on to their assets rather than take profits.

Adler explains that a further decline in these LTH exchange holdings to 1.0% would signal the total absence of selling pressure. Notably, this development could encourage new market entry and sustained accumulation, creating a strong bullish momentum in the BTC market.

Importantly, Alder highlights that the majority of the Bitcoin LTH entered the market at an average price of $25,000, Since then, CryptoQuant has recorded the highest LTH selling pressure of 5.6% at $50,000 in early 2024 and 3.8% at $97,000 in early 2025. 

According to Adler, these two instances likely represent the primary profit-taking phases for long-term holders who intended to exit the market. Therefore, a resurgence in selling pressure from this cohort of BTC investors is unlikely in the short-term, which supports a building bullish case as long-term holders currently control 77.5% of Bitcoin in circulation.

BTC Price Overview

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $85,226 following a 0.36% gain in the past day and a 0.02% loss in the past week. Both metrics only reflect the ongoing market consolidation as BTC continues to struggle to achieve a convincing price breakout beyond $86,000.

Meanwhile, the asset’s performance on the monthly chat now reflects a 1.97% gain, indicating a potential trend reversal as the market correction ceases. Nevertheless, BTC remains in need of a strong market catalyst to ignite any sustainable price rally. With a market cap of $1.67 trillion, Bitcoin is ranked as the largest digital asset, controlling 62.9% of the crypto market.

Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview

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