Ethereum price started a fresh recovery wave above the $4,450 zone but failed. ETH is still struggling and might slide below the $4,220 zone.

• Ethereum is still struggling to recover above the $4,400 zone.
• The price is trading below $4,400 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
• There is a short-term declining channel forming with resistance at $4,310 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
• The pair could start a decent increase if there is a close above the $4,350 level in the near term.

Ethereum Price Remains At Risk

Ethereum price started a recovery wave after it formed a base above the $4,200 zone, like Bitcoin. ETH price was able to climb above the $4,350 and $4,400 resistance levels before the bears appeared.

The recent low was formed at $4,233 and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a minor increase above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,491 swing high to the $4,233 low. However, the bulls face an uphill task near $4,320.

Besides, there is a short-term declining channel forming with resistance at $4,310 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. Ethereum price is now trading below $4,320 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $4,300 level.

The next key resistance is near the $4,320 level. The first major resistance is near the $4,360 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,491 swing high to the $4,233 low. A clear move above the $4,360 resistance might send the price toward the $4,420 resistance. An upside break above the $4,420 resistance might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,500 resistance zone or even $4,550 in the near term.

More Downside In ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $4,360 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $4,260 level. The first major support sits near the $4,220 zone.

A clear move below the $4,220 support might push the price toward the $4,200 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $4,160 support level in the near term. The next key support sits at $4,120.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 zone.

Major Support Level – $4,220

Major Resistance Level – $4,360

For weeks, Shiba Inu’s sideways movement provides nothing but unclear direction. However, a surprise rally might be closer than most people think, according to the current chart setup.

SHIB has been consolidating within a symmetrical triangle formation, a technical pattern frequently linked to strong breakout potential, which explains why SHIB has been trading between support and resistance levels that are progressively convergent since July. Right now, the price is firmly contained within the triangle, indicating a decrease in volatility and increasing pressure. Usually, a decisive action is taken when SHIB enters such compressionary periods. Importantly, SHIB is still adhering to both trendlines and hasn’t broken out of the formation. By itself, this maintains the potential for an upside breakout.

SHIB is still below important moving averages, such as the 200-day SMA, from a technical standpoint, indicating that the overall trend is still bearish. On the other hand, unexpected rallies frequently happen when traders least expect them and sentiment is low. Stop orders and short-term bullish momentum could be triggered by a clear break above the triangle’s upper boundary, which would push SHIB back toward resistance levels close to $0.0000130, and possibly higher if volume supports the move.

On the downside, SHIB runs the risk of retesting the $0.0000115 region if the triangle support is lost. The pattern’s price compression, however, indicates that the market is currently waiting for a trigger.

The main conclusion is that SHIB is still in its symmetrical triangle. The potential for an unexpected rally cannot be disregarded as long as it stays inside. Because the pattern is likely to move quickly once the breakout occurs, traders should closely monitor volume spikes and daily closes around its boundaries.

Bitcoin becoming bearish

Recent price movements for Bitcoin have rekindled concerns that the current bull market may be nearing its end. After testing resistance levels above $120,000 and continuing to rise for months, Bitcoin has now fallen below a crucial technical level: the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA). It is possible that the market is transitioning from a bullish phase to a longer bearish one as a result of this breakdown.

As a short- to midterm trend indicator, the 50 EMA has been used historically. Whenever the price gets close to the line, Bitcoin tends to bounce back and stay above it during strong uptrends. But the most recent move below this support, along with the low buying volume, indicates that the bullish momentum is waning.

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The 200-day EMA, at about $104,000, which frequently serves as the boundary between bull and bear cycles, is the next key area to keep an eye on. Traders may perceive the beginning of a more significant correction if Bitcoin closes several sessions below the 50 EMA and is unable to swiftly recover it. Increased selling pressure would probably result from such a situation, with downside targets extending toward the $106,000-$104,000 range. A bear market would be even more strongly confirmed if the 200-day EMA were to break below.

The bull market isn’t quite over. In comparable configurations, Bitcoin has previously demonstrated resilience by regaining the 50 EMA and starting to rise again. The market is currently at a turning point: Either Bitcoin maintains its current levels and rises above the $113,000 resistance, or it runs the risk of plummeting as sentiment wanes.

XRP’s summer rally ends?

The strong uptrend that propelled XRP earlier this summer may be coming to an end, as the token has formally broken down from its symmetrical triangle pattern. Bulls should be concerned about this technical breakdown, because triangles are frequently used as continuation or reversal setups. XRP’s failure to maintain support within the formation, in this instance, is bearish and may pave the way for further losses.

Not only has XRP fallen out of the triangle, but it is also perilously close to its 100-day moving average, at the moment trading around $2.81. The next important area, the 200-day moving average, is located at about $2.50 if this support fails. In the past, bullish and bearish market structures have been distinguished by this level. If there was a clear break below, more aggressive selling would probably follow.

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There is a greater chance that XRP will fall closer to the psychological $2 mark if momentum keeps waning and it is unable to swiftly recover lost ground. Losing $2 would be a significant change in attitude and might undo a lot of the gains made in the previous few months. The most recent move was accompanied by declining volume, so there isn’t much proof that buyers are acting quickly to purchase at the current prices.

This breakdown, viewed more broadly, puts XRP in a vulnerable position. What was formerly a robust upward trend driven by bullish momentum may now turn into a longer-term downward trend. The outlook remains dominated by downside risks until XRP can rise back above $3.00 and invalidate this bearish move.

XRP’s technical structure has weakened, and a decline toward $2 or even lower is very likely unless there is a swift recovery. The market now awaits the conclusion of the rally, or the ability of bulls to hold onto key support areas.

Bitcoin’s recent rally pushed the cryptocurrency to retest the $122,000 level before facing a pullback. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at approximately $119,053, marking a short-term correction after reclaiming significant highs earlier in the week.

The move comes as traders and analysts watch closely for signs of market strength or weakness at current price levels. One metric drawing attention is Binance’s share of global trading volume.

According to CryptoQuant analyst BorisVest, the exchange’s dominance in trading activity provides valuable context for interpreting Bitcoin’s performance at all-time highs (ATHs).

By comparing volume distribution across exchanges during previous ATH periods, the analysis seeks to determine whether the broader market is participating in the rally or if activity is concentrated on a single platform.

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Bitcoin Exchange Volume Concentration and Market Signals

BorisVest’s review found that during the first ATH in 2024, global market volumes were elevated, and Binance’s trading activity was more than double that of all other exchanges combined.

When Bitcoin retested its ATH later that year, overall market volumes increased across multiple platforms, yet Binance maintained its lead in total trading share.

In contrast, when Bitcoin set a new record in mid-2025, total market volume did not show a significant increase compared to previous rallies. While Binance still recorded nearly twice the trading volume of other exchanges combined, the absence of a wider market volume expansion raised concerns.

The analyst noted that historically, ATHs supported by broad volume growth tend to indicate stronger market conviction. A lack of participation from other exchanges could signal potential challenges in sustaining higher prices over the coming months.

On-Chain Patterns Suggest Gradual Market Progress

In a separate assessment, CryptoQuant analyst Avocado onchain examined Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), a metric tracking the movement of long-dormant coins. The indicator recently turned lower after a brief rise, with Bitcoin’s price trading within a sideways range.

Historically, increases in Binary CDD have been linked to selling pressure from long-term holders, often leading to corrections. However, current market conditions, shaped by changes in custody solutions, over-the-counter trading activity, and institutional investment strategies, make interpreting CDD spikes more complex.

Avocado onchain highlighted that in recent cycles, Binary CDD rises have been followed by either prolonged sideways trading or moderate corrections.

The current data supports what the analyst describes as a “stair-step” rally, where the market advances gradually while cooling short-term speculative activity. This pattern, if sustained, could prevent rapid depletion of buying momentum and allow for more stable long-term growth.

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Other on-chain data suggests that selling from long-term holders remains subdued, indicating limited pressure to exit positions at current price levels.

This aligns with the view that while near-term movements may be range-bound, the broader trend still holds the potential for future upside, contingent on broader participation and sustained investor demand.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a steady price decline over the past week, falling by approximately 3.7% as trading activity shows signs of a possible sell-off or profit-taking phase.

After peaking above $123,000 earlier last month, the leading cryptocurrency has been trading within the $113,000 to $114,000 range in the past day. At the time of writing, BTC is valued at $114,420, reflecting uncertainty in market momentum.

Market analysts point to weakening liquidity and inconsistent institutional demand as key factors contributing to the price drop. A recent analysis shared by Arab Chain, a contributor to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, highlights several on-chain dynamics that have limited Bitcoin’s ability to maintain price stability despite reduced available supply.

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Liquidity Constraints and Market Fragility

According to Arab Chain’s analysis, a sharp collapse in the liquidity inventory ratio began in mid-July, falling to levels representing just over three months of available supply on major trading platforms.

This metric tracks how much Bitcoin is accessible for sale relative to the pace of market activity. Normally, reduced supply would lead to upward price pressure. However, Arab Chain notes that insufficient new demand left the market vulnerable, resulting in the opposite effect.

“When liquidity is thin and there is no consistent buying activity from large investors or ETFs, even small sell orders can lead to significant price drops,” Arab Chain explained. This behavior mirrors “thin market” conditions, where limited order book depth magnifies volatility and makes prices more susceptible to sudden downward moves.

The analysis suggests that market fragility could persist unless fresh demand enters the market. Historically, periods of constrained liquidity combined with a lack of large-scale buyers have led to prolonged corrections in Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

ETF Demand Volatility and Weak Accumulation

Another factor influencing the recent decline has been the erratic demand for Bitcoin-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Arab Chain observed sharp fluctuations in ETF inflows, with rapid surges followed by strong outflows, leaving no consistent institutional support to stabilize prices.

This inconsistent participation from ETFs, which have become a major driver of Bitcoin demand since their approval, contributed to weaker price resilience during sell-offs.

Additionally, on-chain data showed that “smart portfolios,” or high-value addresses typically associated with strategic accumulation, exhibited only modest buying activity during the recent downturn.

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Although accumulation signals long-term confidence, its slow and limited pace failed to counterbalance selling pressure in real time. This lack of immediate demand further weakened market support.

Additionally, while investors closely monitor liquidity conditions, ETF flows, and long-term holder activity for signs of a potential rebound. Analysts suggest that sustained institutional buying or an uptick in accumulation from large addresses could help restore stability.

Until then, Bitcoin may remain in a vulnerable position, with its price movement largely dependent on shifts in demand and available liquidity.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Key takeaways:

• A hidden bearish divergence on the RSI hints at weakening bullish momentum for Bitcoin.

• A CME gap between $114,000–$115,000 could act as a magnet. 

• Market cyclicality and an assortment of indicators show Bitcoin in a distribution zone.

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of potential weakness, with three critical charts suggesting the possibility of new weekly lows in July. While the long-term trend remains intact, traders should brace for short-term volatility.

Bitcoin currently exhibits a hidden bearish divergence between its price and the relative strength index (RSI), a momentum indicator that measures the strength of price movements.

A hidden bearish divergence occurs when the price makes higher highs, but the RSI forms equal or lower highs. This divergence hints at weakening momentum behind the rally, often leading to downside corrections.

This same pattern appeared in March 2024, after which Bitcoin saw a 20% price drop in the following days. Likewise, the ongoing divergence may lead to another corrective move, potentially pushing Bitcoin to fresh short-term lows. 

BTC CME gap looms as a downside magnet

A CME gap exists between $114,380 and $115,635 on the daily chart. CME gaps form when Bitcoin trades outside regular hours on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), leaving price voids that are often filled in active trading sessions.

These gaps matter because historical data show that Bitcoin tends to “fill” them, i.e., the price retraces to cover the untraded range. In 2025, seven out of nine CME gaps have already been filled, with only this one and a smaller gap between $91,970 and $92,450 still open.

The high fill rate underscores Bitcoin’s chances to revisit these levels, leading to a short-term dip to close the $114,000 bracket.

Related: Traditional companies enter the crypto treasury game with BTC, XRP and SOL buys

Bitcoin is in a distribution zone

Anonymous crypto analyst Gaah noted the Index Bitcoin Cycle Indicators (IBCI) has entered the distribution zone, a region historically linked with market euphoria and interim tops. This is the third such entry in the current bull cycle.

The analyst explained that while the index touched only the lower base of the zone (80%), not the peak (100%) seen in past cycle tops, the reading still serves as a warning signal. Key indicators like the Puell Multiple and STH-SOPR (Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio) remain below mid-levels, suggesting that retail speculation and aggressive profit-taking from miners haven’t peaked yet. Gaah added, 

“The behavior of the IBCI therefore offers an important warning sign: we are in a zone of high corrective risk in the short term, but not necessarily at a major end-of-cycle top.”

Related: Bitcoin due ‘massive short squeeze’ as BTC dominance bounces to 62%

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-is-losing-its-bullish-momentum-is-a-drop-to-115k-next/feed/ 0 49475 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/is-pumpfun-losing-its-crown/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/is-pumpfun-losing-its-crown/#respond Tue, 08 Jul 2025 19:26:35 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/is-pumpfun-losing-its-crown/

Crypto is rebellion.

It’s a vision of tearing down the walls built by the financial elite and giving power back to the billions who’ve been told, “you don’t belong.” It’s about markets that never sleep, that no one owns – borderless, permissionless, incorruptible…

… and so, here we are, trading tokens like ASSDAQ and ASS&P500.

These kinds of tokens wouldn’t exist without Pump(.)fun, the memecoin launchpad that ran the memecoin show this cycle.

Or, should I say… used to run it.

Back in April, the BONK community, together with Solana’s DEX Raydium, launched a competing memecoin platform called LetsBONK.

The big difference between the two is how they handle the fees:

Pump(.)fun barely gives back to the Solana ecosystem → a profit first approach;

LetsBonk, on the other hand, reinvests part of its fees into BONK and Solana ecosystems → a community-first approach.

And LetsBONK is now beating Pump(.)fun:

• It deployed 2.2x more tokens than Pump(.)fun in the past 24 hours;

• Graduated 75% of yesterday’s memecoins, compared to Pump(.)fun’s 22% (FYI: “graduated” means the token moved off the launchpad and onto a DEX);

• Collected 2.5x more fees;

• Of the top 25 tokens launched this week, 19 were from LetsBonk, and just 4 from Pump(.)fun.

Now, that’s bad news for Pump(.)fun – especially since their $4B token sale is on the horizon (we talked more about it here btw.)

Here’s why it’s bad:

1/ The narrative is moving away

In crypto – and especially memecoins – vibes matter.

Pump(.)fun made its name as the go-to place for stupid tokens and hype. But LetsBonk is stealing that thunder.

→ Asking investors to value you at $4B when you’re already losing your crown? Not a great look.

2/ Sustainability questions

Pump(.)fun’s profit-first model worked when no one knew better.

But now LetsBonk is showing you can grow while actually supporting the community and the chain.

→ Investors and users may now doubt the long-term sustainability of Pump(.)fun’s model. Why would they support a platform that bleeds the ecosystem when another is giving back and growing faster?

3/ $4B looks insane

A $4B valuation implies confidence in future growth and market leadership.

→ If they’re already being outperformed, that confidence gets shaky – and investors might call BS on the valuation.

Sooo… is Pump(.)fun completely cooked?

Not yet. But it is starting to fall behind… We’ll know when we know.

Bitcoin (BTC) whipsawed below $100,000 at about 4 p.m. UTC on June 23 and reclaimed nearly $104,000 three hours later as traders processed news of an Iranian missile strike on a US air base in Qatar that caused no casualties.

As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $103,801.74, up 4.5% over the past 24 hours after hitting an intraday low of around $99,500.

Iran fired a limited salvo at Al Udeid Air Base after Washington bombed three Iranian nuclear sites two days earlier. US officials said Tehran alerted Washington through back channels, allowing personnel to take cover. 

President Donald Trump confirmed the warning and called the response “very weak,” adding that the measured strike signaled an opening for de-escalation.

The absence of injuries blunted initial market anxiety. Bitcoin’s one-hour candle pierced $100,000 on high volume, then reversed as liquidity providers restored bid depth. By 7 p.m. UTC, the pair traded just below $104,000 on Binance order books, according to TradingView.

Range, leverage, and what to watch

Despite the recent volatility caused by escalating tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin has shown resilience, trading above the six-figure level for the vast majority of it.

Bitfinex Alpha’s June 23 note called exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows “remarkably stable,” arguing that spot funds now act as a programmatic floor. 

The report pegged the zone between $94,000 and $95,000 as critical support, and the range between $105,000 and $110,000 as near-term resistance. Until weekly inflows re-accelerate past $1.5 billion or a fresh macro catalyst emerges, analysts expect prices to oscillate inside that corridor.

Derivatives data support the view of contained volatility. Futures open interest stands near $52.8 billion and options near $43.4 billion. Combined interest remains elevated at roughly $96 billion but has retreated from the $114 billion peak after a $14 billion deleveraging flush last week. 

Funding rates now sit in a “healthier zone,” suggesting capital is rotating into longer-horizon positions instead of short-term punts. The report warned that a renewed build-up of crowded leverage could trigger sharp liquidations, yet current metrics imply a firmer base.

ETF flows remain the fulcrum. Steady or rising allocations, especially during US hours when most spot-driven discovery occurs, would favor retests of the $110,000 cap. Conversely, a sustained week of net outflows would mark the first serious sign of rotational risk and could drag BTC back toward the mid-$90,000s, particularly if accompanied by fresh geopolitical stress.

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