Is the increase in OP_Return demand bias an estimate of Mempool-based fees for normal payments (e.g., different elasticity/arrival patterns and currency TXS)?

No, op_return transactions are not specifically treated (positive or negative) in terms of fees. All transactions are treated equally, and the only distinctive factor is how willing you to pay for the fee. Whether a transaction has an OP_RETURN, an inscription, or a payment, all transactions compete for the same resource, that is, space within the block. Rate estimates should take into account all demands of block space equally.

Can a maintained op_return request crowds to pay less monetary, reducing their viability in the chain, even if the total fees rise?

Certainly, we have seen similar behavior happen before in the inscription. It’s all about supply and demand. As the supply of block space is limited, when demand increases, the price of that block space will also rise, whether it be payments, op_returns, inscriptions, etc. Ultimately, it comes down to someone who is willing to pay a higher price. Maybe the person paying is willing to pay more than create Op_returns. Probably the opposite.

However, it should be noted that payment transactions are often small and there are many coin selection strategies that can be optimized to create small transactions. Given that, even if Feerate is higher, a transaction that is simply a payment could potentially pay less absolute fees than a transaction that includes OP_Return.

Is there an analysis or simulation that shows that the higher OP_Return usage does not reduce the reliability of the settlement or lead to volatile fee dynamics than it would damage adoption?

Past actions on the network show that even when there is significant demand for block space, where adoption is still increasing, it is still increasing. See if more people are using Bitcoin as something like an inscription is happening. In general, adoptions tended to rise regardless of what was happening in the chain.

We also know that it is difficult to predict how much we will pay to enter a block from previous instances of a high transaction volume. This is probably true whether that volume is from op_returns, inscription, payment, or something else. This could affect the “reliability of the settlement” if what it means is to guess how long it will take for the transaction to be mined.

However, there is no reason to assume that increasing the OP_RETURN limit will increase the amount of transactions. The main way of data insertion on blockchain over the past few years is through inscriptions. The method of inserting data is inexpensive and allows for more data than OP_RETURN. Increasing the OP_RETURN limit does not change it, so anyone trying to insert a lot of data will rarely switch to OP_RETURN. There are very small users whose bigger OP_returns are interesting, but they don’t have a high (or actually a significant amount of) transaction volume.

Bitcoin investors with long-term positions are realizing profits at levels not seen in nearly a decade, according to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode.

Data from the firm shows that long-term holders have realized roughly 2.37 million BTC in profit during the ongoing 2024–2025 cycle. At current prices, that equates to about $260.7 billion.

This is the highest realized profit since the 2016–2017 bull run, when long-term investors booked gains of approximately 3.93 million BTC.

Glassnode noted that the sharp increase in realized gains illustrates growing sell-side pressure. The firm suggested that investors appear to capitalize on Bitcoin’s recent rally by reducing their exposure to the top crypto after months of sustained upward momentum.

Over the past year, Bitcoin has steadily climbed to new highs, peaking at $124,167 on Aug. 14, according to CryptoSlate’s data. The asset was trading at $110,761 at press time, down nearly 11% from that record.

This pullback suggests that profit-taking has become widespread, consistent with prior cycles, in which strong rallies were often followed by quieter, less aggressive phases of market activity.

The retracement has drawn attention to on-chain activity and investor behavior, particularly among long-term holders (LTHs). A CryptoQuant analyst has been monitoring realized profit and loss metrics to gauge whether the current cycle is approaching its peak or if more upside potential remains.  Data released by the analyst sheds light on how seasoned holders are reacting to Bitcoin’s latest rally.

Long-Term Holder Trends Across Market Cycles

CryptoQuant contributor PelinayPA shared an assessment of Bitcoin’s long-term holder realized profit and loss (RPL) metric, which tracks when investors who have held coins for extended periods decide to sell. According to the analyst, this indicator has historically been reliable in signaling both cycle tops and bottoms.

The analysis highlights key phases across multiple market cycles. During the 2017 bull market, a surge in LTH realized profits coincided with Bitcoin’s peak. By contrast, in the 2018–2019 bear market, profit realization slowed dramatically, while losses surfaced, reflecting the market bottom.

A similar pattern was observed in 2021, though the profit realization was more gradual, suggesting that selling pressure was spread across the market rather than concentrated in short bursts.

When Bitcoin entered the 2022–2023 downturn, realized losses increased significantly as the asset fell into the $15,000–$20,000 range. That period was characterized by panic selling among longer-term holders.

In the current market, however, PelinayPA notes that while profit-taking is visible, it remains moderate compared with past peaks. This indicates that, although selling is occurring, it has not yet reached the levels typically associated with a cycle top.

What the Current Data Suggests for Bitcoin

The current phase of moderate profit realization suggests caution but does not confirm that Bitcoin has fully topped out. PelinayPA explained that:

Historically, sharp increases in LTH profit realization (large green spikes) align with bull market tops. Current selling (mid-2025) is measured and gradual, which implies BTC may still be in the late stages of a bull cycle. If LTH selling accelerates, it could mark the next peak.

This measured approach by long-term holders could mean that the market retains some room for additional upward movement, provided selling pressure does not intensify.

At the same time, the data highlights that a shift toward heavier profit-taking would be an important warning signal for traders and institutions watching the market closely.

On-chain analytics firms frequently point to these long-term holder behaviors as leading indicators. While Bitcoin’s price action continues to consolidate below its record high, how these investors act in the coming weeks could set the tone for the next stage of the cycle.

For now, the data suggests that the rally has not yet reached conditions historically associated with a definitive top, but market participants are advised to watch profit realization closely.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Cardano’s most loyal investors are bucking the usual profit-taking trend and are steadily adding to their ADA stacks even as prices and market heat indicators climb.

Data from Alpharactal showed that ADA long-term holders (LTH) have been steadily accumulating the digital asset since 2021 without showing signs of significant distribution.

This consistency signals confidence in Cardano’s long-term growth and a willingness to hold through potential volatility.

Meanwhile, part of this cohort’s resilience may stem from ADA’s price still sitting 74.76% below its all-time high of $3.09, reached in September 2021.

The incentive to sell may not be compelling for many investors who bought during that cycle until the asset returns to those record levels. On the other hand, ADA short-term holders (STH) are exhibiting a surprisingly more cautious behavior in the current bullish market conditions.

Notably, this cohort quickly sold during 2021’s market rally but now applies far less selling pressure despite ADA’s 150% year-on-year gain.

Instead, Alphractal noted that they have modestly increased their positions in the digital asset.

Overheated market

Outside of these traders’ behaviour, on-chain indicators suggest ADA market conditions are hot and could give the asset another significant price run.

The adjusted Sharpe Ratio, a gauge of risk-adjusted returns, stands at roughly 1, reflecting the strong market performance compared to previous cycles.

Historically, ADA has seen sharp, parabolic rallies when this ratio approaches 2, making the current reading potentially supportive of further gains.

Aside from this indicator, a major bullish catalyst may be forming on the regulatory front.

Data from the decentralized prediction marketplace Polymarket gives Cardano an 80% chance of seeing a US-approved ETF this year. This places it among a small circle of altcoins with such significant odds.

If confirmed, an ETF could draw significant new demand from institutional and retail investors alike,e which could increase ADA’s value.

Bitcoin slipped 0.11% in the past 24 hours to $116,702, according to CoinDesk Data, but remains up 25% year to date, second only to gold’s 29% gain among major asset classes, according to data shared by financial strategist Charlie Bilello on X.

2025 Performance so far

As of Aug. 8, bitcoin’s 25% year-to-date return ranked behind only gold’s 29.3% advance. Other major asset classes have posted more modest gains, with emerging market stocks (VWO) up 15.6%, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) up 12.7% and U.S. large caps (SPY) rising 9.4%. Meanwhile, U.S. mid caps (MDY) and small caps (IWM) 0.2% have only gained 0.8%, respectively. This marks the first time gold and bitcoin have occupied the top two positions in Bilello’s annual asset class rankings since records began.

2011–2025 Cumulative returns

Over the longer term, bitcoin has delivered an extraordinary 38,897,420% total return since 2011 — a figure that dwarfs all other asset classes in the dataset. Gold’s 126% cumulative return over the same period puts it in the middle of the pack, trailing equity benchmarks like the Nasdaq 100 (1101%) and U.S. large caps (559%), as well as mid caps (316%), small caps (244%) and emerging market stocks (57%). Based on Bilello’s figures, bitcoin’s total return has exceeded gold’s by more than 308,000 times over the past 14 years.

2011–2025 Annualized returns

When measured on an annualized basis, bitcoin’s dominance is equally clear. The flagship cryptocurrency has delivered a 141.7% average annual gain since 2011, compared with 5.7% for gold, 18.6% for the Nasdaq 100, 13.8% for U.S. large caps and 4.4% to 16.4% for other major equity and real estate indexes. Gold’s long-term stability has made it a valuable hedge in certain market cycles, but its pace of appreciation has been far slower than bitcoin’s exponential climb.

Gold vs. bitcoin, according to Peter Brandt

Renowned trader Peter Brandt weighed in on Aug. 8, contrasting gold’s merits as a store of value with bitcoin’s potential to surpass all fiat alternatives. “Some think gold is a great store of value — and it is. But the ultimate store of value will prove to be bitcoin,” he said on X, sharing a long-term chart of the U.S. dollar’s purchasing power. His comments echo the growing narrative that bitcoin’s scarcity and decentralization make it uniquely positioned to outperform traditional hedges over time.

Technical Analysis Highlights

• According to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis data model, between Aug. 8 at 21:00 UTC and Aug. 9 at 20:00 UTC, bitcoin traded within a $1,534.42 range (1.31%) from $116,352.52 to $117,886.44.
• Price opened near $116,900 and moved sideways before surging during Asian hours, climbing from $116,440 to $117,886 between 05:00 UTC and 10:00 UTC on Aug. 9, with 24-hour trading volume exceeding 9,000 BTC during these intervals.
• Strong buying emerged near $116,420 at 05:00 UTC, while selling pressure intensified around the $117,886 high.
• Bitcoin closed the session at $116,517, down 0.32% from the open, with defined support at $116,400–$116,500 and resistance at $117,400–$117,900
• In the final hour of the analysis period (Aug. 9, 19:06–20:05 UTC), bitcoin remained under downward pressure within a $195.11 band, sliding from $116,629.40 to $116,519.29 (-0.09%).
• The largest final-hour volume spike occurred at 19:27 UTC, when 296.43 BTC changed hands as price tested $116,547 support.
• Recovery attempts were repeatedly capped near $116,600–$116,713, in line with earlier intraday resistance.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

Commodity trader Peter Brandt claims that gold remains in a long-term bear trend against Bitcoin.

The weekly chart shared by Brandt shows that the XAU/BTC ratio has been in a persistent downtrend for over a decade. 

Gold resumes its rally 

Earlier today, gold, which is viewed as the most popular safe haven asset, surged to a two-week peak of $3,407. The yellow metal is attracting more buyers due to rising odds of rate cuts being implemented by the U.S. Federal Reserve this year. 

Growing trade tensions are also contributing to the ongoing gold rally, Reuters reports. 

On Apr. 22, gold reached a new all-time high of $3,500, which came after massive tariffs announced by the U.S. 

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Gold failed to sustain the rally after the U.S.-China tariff detente, but it is now catching a bid once again. 

Will Bitcoin catch up? 

The yellow metal is still up by 29% since the start of the year. It has outperformed Bitcoin, which is only up by a mere 24% this year despite a slew of bullish catalysts. 

Mike McGlone, who recently turned bearish on Bitcoin, recently noted that the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index barely managed to match the gains recorded by the S&P 500 this year, showing how dismal the performance of the nascent asset class is this year.

As reported by U.Today, Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer previously forecasted that Bitcoin would be able to race ahead of gold in the second half of the year. 

However, Bitcoin only managed to briefly surpass gold in terms of year-to-date returns in July when it hit its current all-time high of $122,838. 

Chainlink has introduced the Chainlink Reserve, a new onchain treasury designed to accumulate its native token LINK using revenue from both enterprise clients and blockchain services.

The initiative aims to support the long-term sustainability of the Chainlink Network by converting off-chain and on-chain payments into LINK through its recently expanded Payment Abstraction infrastructure.

In its early launch phase, the Reserve has already amassed over $1 million worth of LINK.

Chainlink said it expects the Reserve to continue growing with no withdrawals planned for several years, positioning it as a long-term asset base to fund future development and network incentives.

Growing the reserve

Chainlink’s Payment Abstraction allows users to pay for services in a variety of tokens, including gas tokens, stablecoins, or even fiat, with all payments programmatically converted into LINK.

This system now extends to large-scale enterprise integrations, enabling corporations to pay off-chain while still contributing to the LINK economy. The mechanism facilitates conversions using Chainlink’s own infrastructure, CCIP, Automation, and Price Feeds, alongside Uniswap V3.

As demand for Chainlink’s services rises, particularly among major banks and capital markets institutions building tokenized asset infrastructure, the volume of converted payments is expected to increase.

The Chainlink Reserve operates as an Ethereum smart contract and includes a multi-day timelock for added security. A public dashboard is available at reserve.chain.link, offering transparency into its holdings and activity.

Strengthening the economic model

The Chainlink Reserve complements the protocol’s broader economic framework, which includes usage-based fees, staking-secured revenue sharing, and a Build program that supports early-stage projects in exchange for token commitments.

Protocols like Aave and GMX already contribute to LINK demand through MEV-sharing and data stream fees.

On the cost side, Chainlink is rolling out the Chainlink Runtime Environment (CRE), which consolidates redundant infrastructure across blockchains and reduces operational overhead. These improvements are designed to increase capital efficiency while maintaining high service reliability.

With over $80 billion in value secured across over 60 blockchains and more than 2,000+ oracle feeds, Chainlink remains the dominant provider of decentralized data infrastructure.

The Chainlink Reserve is intended to ensure this position strengthens as the next wave of blockchain adoption, driven by tokenized real-world assets and stablecoins, unfolds.

A closely followed crypto strategist believes that the Bitcoin (BTC) bull market will endure another year or so based on historical precedent.

Pseudonymous analyst TechDev tells his 537,900 followers on the social media platform X that he thinks Bitcoin follows the business cycle, or the ebb and flow of macroeconomic activity, rather than the four-year halving cycle.

According to the analyst, Bitcoin tends to rally hard when the business cycle begins a new uptrend, while the copper-to-gold ratio – a risk-appetite indicator –bottoms out.

Taken together, TechDev says the signal marks an “inflection point” that has historically aligned with the timing of Bitcoin bull market tops.

“There is a Bitcoin cycle – just not what many think.

It mirrors the business cycle.

Bitcoin tops when it tops.

Bitcoin goes parabolic when it inflects.

Bitcoin’s ‘ramp’ length = time until inflection

Bitcoin has always topped 14 months after inflection.” 

As for his Bitcoin price targets, TechDev sees BTC hitting $170,000 in the short to mid term and about $380,000 in the long term. His predictions are based on BTC’s two-day and two-week charts, which show that Bitcoin broke out from massive cup-and-handle patterns on both time frames.

The cup-and-handle pattern suggests that a bullish asset will continue its uptrend after a period of consolidation.

“We literally just did this.” 

At time of writing, Bitcoin is worth $118,110.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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