Liquidity – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Thu, 11 Sep 2025 19:49:49 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.7 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Liquidity – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 Bitcoin faces critical test at $114k as low liquidity threatens further upside action https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-faces-critical-test-at-114k-as-low-liquidity-threatens-further-upside-action/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-faces-critical-test-at-114k-as-low-liquidity-threatens-further-upside-action/#respond Thu, 11 Sep 2025 19:49:49 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-faces-critical-test-at-114k-as-low-liquidity-threatens-further-upside-action/

Bitcoin (BTC) must hold the $114,000 level to attract investors’ confidence and new liquidity to breach the narrow $110,000-$116,000 range.

According to a Sept. 11 report by Glassnode, BTC has been stuck in the “air gap” range following its mid-August peak. The trading range threatens to stall the current rally.

In the current landscape, Bitcoin faces mounting pressure from conflicting forces as recent buyers realize losses while earlier investors take profits.

The report noted three distinct investor cohorts shaping current price action. The first are top-buyers over the past three months holding positions near $113,800, while the second consists of dip-buyers clustering around $112,800.

The third cohort, comprising short-term holders from the past six months, is anchored near $108,300, creating defined support and resistance zones.

The rebound from $108,000 exposed underlying market stress. Seasoned short-term holders realized approximately $189 million in daily profits, representing 79% of all short-term holder gains. The investors who bought during the February-May dips used recent strength to exit positions profitably.

Loss realization weighs on recovery

Recent top buyers compounded selling pressure by realizing daily losses of up to $152 million during the same period. This behavior mirrors stress patterns observed in April 2024 and January 2025, when peak buyers capitulated under similar circumstances.

Net Realized Profit as a share of market cap peaked at 0.065% during August’s rally before trending lower. While current levels remain elevated, the metric suggests inflows provide diminishing support compared to earlier phases of the cycle.

US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) net flows dropped sharply since early August, hovering near 500 BTC daily, compared to the robust inflows that fueled previous rallies.

The slowdown removes a critical pillar of institutional demand that drove Bitcoin’s ascent through 2024.

Derivatives providing stability

With spot flows weakening, derivatives markets assumed greater importance in price formation. Volume Delta Bias recovered during the bounce from $108,000, indicating seller exhaustion across major futures venues, including Binance and Bybit.

The 3-month annualized futures basis remains below 10% despite higher prices, reflecting measured demand for leverage without speculative excess.

Perpetual futures volume stays muted, consistent with post-euphoric market phases rather than aggressive speculation.

Bitcoin options open interest reached record highs as institutions increasingly use derivatives for risk management through protective puts and covered calls. Meanwhile, implied volatility continues to decline, signaling market maturation and reduced speculative positioning.

With these metrics as a backdrop, reclaiming $114,000 decisively would restore top-buyer profitability and attract fresh institutional capital.

Failure to hold this level risks renewed pressure on short-term holders, with $108,300 and ultimately $93,000 serving as critical downside targets where major supply clusters await.

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$2.4 Million Vanishes from Bunni DEX in Targeted Liquidity Exploit https://earlybirdsinvest.com/2-4-million-vanishes-from-bunni-dex-in-targeted-liquidity-exploit/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/2-4-million-vanishes-from-bunni-dex-in-targeted-liquidity-exploit/#respond Tue, 02 Sep 2025 18:28:59 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/2-4-million-vanishes-from-bunni-dex-in-targeted-liquidity-exploit/

A recent exploit has forced decentralized exchange Bunni to pause its smart contracts after a vulnerability allowed an attacker to take around $2.4 million in stablecoins.

Security researchers reviewing blockchain records confirmed that the loss occurred due to a flaw in how Bunni calculates liquidity distribution.

The incident was confirmed by the Bunni team on X on September 2, where they announced the shutdown of all smart contract activity across supported blockchains while the situation is under review.

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Funds were drained from Bunni’s Ethereum
ETH


$4,289.92

contracts and moved into a single wallet. This wallet currently holds around $1.33 million in USDC
USDC


$0.9996

and another $1.04 million in USDT
USDT


$0.9992

.

Following the event, Bunni contributor @Psaul26ix urged users to exit the platform immediately and warned them to remove any remaining assets from its pools.

Bunni relies on Euler Finance to manage its lending and structured product offerings. Despite the connection, Euler’s CEO, Michael Bentley, made it clear that Euler’s own protocol was not impacted.

Instead of using the default Uniswap
UNI


$9.43

logic, Bunni uses its own Liquidity Distribution Function (LDF), designed to spread liquidity across different price levels to help providers earn better returns. However, this function appears to have been at the core of the issue.

Victor Tran, the co-founder of KyberNetwork, explained that the attacker had discovered a way to trick the system by making trades of exact sizes, which caused errors in the liquidity rebalancing process.

On September 1, attackers exploited a security flaw to steal WLFI tokens from Ethereum ETH wallets. How? Read the full story.


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Did Bitpanda snub the UK list on liquidity issues? https://earlybirdsinvest.com/did-bitpanda-snub-the-uk-list-on-liquidity-issues/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/did-bitpanda-snub-the-uk-list-on-liquidity-issues/#respond Tue, 26 Aug 2025 13:07:38 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/did-bitpanda-snub-the-uk-list-on-liquidity-issues/

Bitpanda raised collective brows in European fintech corridors by opting out of public UK listings. But why did Bitpanda snap the UK as a potential listing venue?

The Vienna-based fintech platform, backed by billionaire Peter Thiel, has found it cited low liquidity on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) as the main reason for opting out of its original plan.

According to a report published by the Financial Times on August 26, 2025, Bitpanda CEO Eric Demuth said the company will instead focus on the venue of choice when either Frankfurt or New York proceeds to hold the public offering.

The timeline is not official, but London is definitely off the list.

Dems confirmed that it wasn’t just the company that shelved its London plans. According to Demuth, many companies are moving away from LSE.

He pointed out British fintech Wise and recently moved his major list to New York after a shareholder vote. British Fintech has moved primarily due to deeper capital pools and requirements for increasing market liquidity.

In addition to this, he acknowledged the London Bulls’ ongoing struggle to attract adequate trading volume and investor depth.

Explore: Top 20 Cryptography to Buy in 2025

London’s trading scene looks dry: British IPO market plunges to the lowest point in 30 years

Given that London is struggling to maintain its position as a major IPO destination, the Bitpanda UK exit appears to be a fair business decision.

The UK IPO market plunged to the lowest point raised in the first half of 2025, from just £160 million to £162.8 million (2267.8m).

The funding environment remains weak even after considering secondary provision.

Demuth explained that while Bitpanda recently entered the UK market, it still draws its main source of revenue from the European continent.

At the beginning of June, Carie Osman, founder and CEO of Growth Consultancy company Cruxy, repeatedly fell in LSE.

According to OSMAN, there are several reasons why companies are delisting from LSE. There are structural ones, but the main issue is lack of fluidity.

Her remarks came after Qualcomm’s acquisition of UK-based semiconductor company Alphawave Semi.

She said the UK’s weaker investment culture is hindering LSE compared to the US, where people often invest through the 401(k) plan.

On GlobalData’s Instant Insights Podcast, she said: “I was looking at some facts. I thought it was very interesting in the UK, for example, that about 23% of adults have stocks and stakes. If you compare that to the US, it’s 62%.”

Explore: Buy Now 12+ Hottest Cipher Precels

Bitpanda UK’s departure reflects broader industry trends

Bitpanda SideSteping UK shows a wide range of industry trends where businesses are moving to greener pastures in search of greater liquidity, regulatory clarity and investor depth.

The US and continental Europe have emerged as public hotspots due to the receptive regulatory environment and institutional interest.

The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and NASDAQ have become magnets for native crypto companies due to friendly policies and institutional capital inflows under the Trump administration.

Earlier this year, USDC Stablecoin publisher Circle raised $1.05 billion in NYSE at a $8 billion valuation. Gemini and Bitgo follow suit to list them in the US. Meanwhile, this month is another Tiel support exchange that was released on the NYSE.

The contrast with the LSE is severe. The UK aims to lead fintechs, but the IPO market continues to struggle with thin trading volumes and low investor appetite, raising questions about the viability of high-growth tech companies.

Explore: 20+ Next Cryptocurrency to Explode in 2025

Key takeout

  • The UK IPO market has plummeted to its lowest point in 30 years, raising just £160 million to £162.8 million ($226 million to 247.8 m) in the first half of 2025.

  • Bitpanda canceled its UK listing plan due to low LSE liquidity

  • Bitpanda will be open to either Frankfurt or New York

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Bitcoin consolidates as liquidity flows shift to Ethereum and broader altcoin markets https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-consolidates-as-liquidity-flows-shift-to-ethereum-and-broader-altcoin-markets/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-consolidates-as-liquidity-flows-shift-to-ethereum-and-broader-altcoin-markets/#respond Tue, 26 Aug 2025 02:27:35 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-consolidates-as-liquidity-flows-shift-to-ethereum-and-broader-altcoin-markets/

Bitcoin (BTC) consolidates near current levels as capital inflows extend along the risk curve toward Ethereum and broader altcoins, according to Bitfinex Alpha’s Aug. 25 report.

The report noted that the shift represents a measured rotation of institutional liquidity following Bitcoin’s all-time high formation.

Bitcoin declined 4.5% from the weekly open on Aug. 18 until Aug. 22, sliding to local range lows as investors de-risked ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium.

The asset reached $111,990 amid renewed weakness in US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) flows, with Bitcoin ETFs recording $1.18 billion in net outflows over the week. As of press time, BTC lost the $110,000 threshold and is priced at $109,795.71.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks at Jackson Hole triggered a sharp rebound in risk assets, sparking a broad-based short squeeze across crypto.

Ethereum led the recovery, surging to a new all-time high of $4,958.70 on Aug. 24 and demonstrating its role as a liquidity driver for institutional markets.

Spot ETH ETFs registered $197 million in outflows on Aug. 18 alone, marking the third-largest daily exit on record. However, Ethereum treasury companies absorbed substantial selling pressure, with preliminary estimates suggesting meaningful institutional support.

Corporate treasuries, including SharpLink Gaming, Bitmine Immersion Technologies, and BTCS, accelerated accumulation, with on-chain treasury balances exceeding $10 billion. The report noted that the rotation reflects softer capital inflows into Bitcoin following its Aug. 14 all-time high of $123,640.

Bitcoin’s realized cap expanded at 6% per month during the current move, compared to 13% monthly growth during late-2024 breakouts above $100,000, indicating more cautious investor appetite.

Macro signals remain supportive

Global liquidity conditions remain supportive, with the combined M2 money supply from major central banks approaching $100 trillion. The structural upward trend in global liquidity reinforces the long-term bullish case for digital assets, though capital allocation has become more selective.

Solana climbed above $200 to reach $212.60 as the broader digital asset class pushed higher alongside equities, reflecting tightening correlations between crypto and traditional risk assets. Meanwhile, network development continues to advance, showcased by DBS Bank’s recent tokenized note issuance on Ethereum.

In this backdrop, Bitfinex expects Bitcoin to remain range-bound while Ethereum attracts heightened institutional demand, mirroring Bitcoin’s dynamic from early 2024.

The report anticipated more significant capital rotation into higher-risk altcoins later in the cycle, with broader market re-rating dependent on renewed Bitcoin ETF inflows and new altcoin investment vehicles.

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Coinbase Revives Stablecoin Funding Program to Bolster DeFi Liquidity https://earlybirdsinvest.com/coinbase-revives-stablecoin-funding-program-to-bolster-defi-liquidity/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/coinbase-revives-stablecoin-funding-program-to-bolster-defi-liquidity/#respond Tue, 12 Aug 2025 17:52:36 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/coinbase-revives-stablecoin-funding-program-to-bolster-defi-liquidity/

Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) said on Tuesday it is reviving its Stablecoin Bootstrap Fund, aiming to boost stablecoin liquidity on decentralized finance (DeFi) markets.

The initiative will be managed by Coinbase Asset Management and begins with deployments on Aave, Morpho, Kamino and Jupiter, according to a blog post.

jwp-player-placeholder

The exchange first launched the program in 2019 to help protocols seed early trading pools for USDC stablecoin. That effort supported early platforms like Uniswap

, Compound and dYdX and helped spearhead USDC in the DeFi ecosystem, which is still the most widely used stablecoin in the sector.

In its new iteration, the initiative will allocate capital across both established and emerging protocols, aiming to ensure users can access stable yields and efficient markets.

While Coinbase has not disclosed the size of the fund or specific amounts for each deployment, a company spokesperson told CoinDesk it will test placements across multiple networks before scaling further. Currently, the fund provides capital in USDC and EURC, Circle’s euro-pegged stablecoin, the company added.

Coinbase’s move comes as the DeFi sector’s growth is accelerating amid red-hot crypto markets and easing regulatory headwinds in the U.S. There are almost $200 billion of assets held across DeFi protocols collectively, nearly doubling since April but still below its 2021 peak, DefiLlama data shows.

Read more: Decentralized Finance and Tokenization Growth Still Disappoints: JPMorgan

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Bitcoin’s Macro Mirror: Global Liquidity Trends Hint At Bullish Continuation https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoins-macro-mirror-global-liquidity-trends-hint-at-bullish-continuation/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoins-macro-mirror-global-liquidity-trends-hint-at-bullish-continuation/#respond Mon, 11 Aug 2025 19:23:41 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoins-macro-mirror-global-liquidity-trends-hint-at-bullish-continuation/ Bitcoin’s price movements often reflect broader macroeconomic trends. Analysts have uncovered a consistent pattern where BTC’s price follows these shifts with a roughly 12-week delay. With global liquidity now picking up steam, the macro-level signal now points toward a potential bullish phase ahead for BTC.

How Liquidity Trends Fit Into Bitcoin’s Long-Term Cycle

In an X post, Crypto expert MartyParty pointed out a compelling pattern in Bitcoin’s price behavior, stating that its high-timeframe follows global liquidity, indicated on the chart as the blue line following the red line lagged 12 weeks. 

Currently, the global liquidity curve is on the rise, and the US has not started issuing new liquidity, meaning the current surge is being fueled externally. MartyParty argues that this global liquidity wave is primed to push BTC toward the $125,000 mark on foreign liquidity issuance.

The current macro thesis suggests that BTC could reach $140,000, driven purely by the influx of foreign liquidity. In the meantime, the upcoming US liquidity issuance is expected to begin within the next quarter and will last up to a year to eighteen months. 

Bitcoin

Once the US liquidity kicks in, combined with expected rate cuts that will lower borrowing costs, it will create a compelling setup for the BTC price to potentially rally to $250,000 in the medium to long term. 

Daan Crypto Trades has revealed that Bitcoin’s impressive resilience and steady upward trend relative to the US stock market have been trending since its bottom in 2022. Over this period, BTC has experienced only four moderate corrections ranging between 20% and 30%, while delivering a 420% gain from bottom to top. This steady outperformance suggests that BTC has carved out a strong position as a growth asset, especially in risk-on market environments.

How Bitcoin’s Current Energy Value Growth Differs From Past Cycles

Another notable development is the Bitcoin Energy Value, which just reached a new all-time high of $135,000 per BTC. According to StarPlatinum, in previous market cycles, reaching such peaks in Energy Value has been associated with sharp price moves or big drops.

Currently, the rise in Energy Value is gradual and steady, reflecting a more natural market progression. This data reveals several key points about BTC’s current state. First, BTC is stronger and more mature than ever, with demand steadily increasing over time.

Despite hitting a new all-time high on Energy Value, the current price still sits about 15% below this metric, indicating there’s still room to run. Historically, the BTC cycle top occurred when its price surged 40% to 60% above its Energy Value. Meanwhile, many in the crypto community have spent three years saying BTC is close to the top, only to see those calls followed by waves of FOMO.

Bitcoin

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Bank of Japan’s quiet dollar liquidity move: warning sign or just the beginning? https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bank-of-japans-quiet-dollar-liquidity-move-warning-sign-or-just-the-beginning/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bank-of-japans-quiet-dollar-liquidity-move-warning-sign-or-just-the-beginning/#respond Sat, 19 Jul 2025 16:35:22 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bank-of-japans-quiet-dollar-liquidity-move-warning-sign-or-just-the-beginning/

On July 15, 2025, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) quietly announced that it would begin supplying U.S. dollar funds against pooled collateral, starting on July 17, a move that might seem like standard liquidity management.

However, according to macro analyst EndGame Macro, this technical maneuver may signal the beginning of a far deeper shift, hinting at growing stress inside the global dollar funding ecosystem and the cumulative strain of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s persistent hawkishness.

The carry trade squeeze and systemic pressure

EndGame Macro explains that, for years, Japanese institutions profited from USD carry trades: borrowing cheaply in yen, investing in higher-yielding U.S. assets, and hedging the currency risk. This trade thrived on historically easy dollar liquidity and a strong yen. Now, with the dollar buoyed by high Fed rates and the yen slumping, the economics are breaking down.

As the cost and risk of rolling over these trades escalate, Japanese firms face mounting pressure. The BOJ’s action of supplying domestic USD liquidity is less about the current crisis and more about “preemptive firefighting.”

The maneuver also points to a broader global problem: dollar scarcity. When a major central bank intervenes to provide USD locally, it’s a clear message that private markets are slipping in their capacity to allocate dollars efficiently and cost-effectively. We’ve seen the early signs before, he states, most notably in 2008, 2011, 2019, and 2020, which led to repo market ruptures and emergency Fed interventions.

Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, commented on the implications of these central bank machinations, pointing out that such moves bolster global liquidity:

“This is huge… The BOJ is about to ramp up the fiat liquidity gusher and propel $BTC much higher.”

The BOJ rate hike and crypto assets

CryptoSlate recently reported that the BOJ’s recent rate hike to 0.5%, the highest since 2008, sent shockwaves through both Japanese and international markets, including a 22% drop in Metaplanet shares.

The move, prompted by persistent inflation above 3%, has put pressure on previously steady carry trades and heightened volatility across assets. Higher Japanese rates narrow the profitability of borrowing in yen to invest overseas. Unwinding these trades can cause rapid capital flight from risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, increasing global volatility.

When the dollar becomes more expensive and less available globally, riskier assets, like Bitcoin, often face pressure, with price surges or sudden downturns as liquidity dynamics shift. However, if central banks, including the Fed and BOJ, coordinate or expand liquidity (e.g., via swap lines or renewed QE), risk assets like crypto can rebound sharply, as Hayes anticipates.

The BOJ’s recent steps, both in lifting rates and preemptively adding USD liquidity, are more than routine tweaks. As EndGame Macro states:

“Quiet moves like this one are often the first signs.”

The post Bank of Japan’s quiet dollar liquidity move: warning sign or just the beginning? appeared first on CryptoSlate.

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Hedge Fund CEOs are just beginning the Bitcoin liquidity supercycle https://earlybirdsinvest.com/hedge-fund-ceos-are-just-beginning-the-bitcoin-liquidity-supercycle/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/hedge-fund-ceos-are-just-beginning-the-bitcoin-liquidity-supercycle/#respond Mon, 14 Jul 2025 07:41:42 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/hedge-fund-ceos-are-just-beginning-the-bitcoin-liquidity-supercycle/

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Bitcoin punched a fresh record of over $122,000 on the morning of July 14th, extending its month-long rally to over 16%. Against this backdrop, Charles Edwards (founder and CEO of Capriol Investment, a digital asset hedge fund) acknowledges that it is only in the “early stage” of a much broader liquidity-driven boom that could control the rest of 2025 and beyond.

Bitcoin Liquidity Super Cycle

In the latest Capriol newsletter, Edwards argues that “money and liquidity provide a capital flow background, and Bitcoin finance companies are the funnels.” He dismisses the idea that the $20,000 advance over the past two weeks is a technical accident and instead refers to deep macro currents that have been built for months.

“The biggest bitcoin rallies occur when the market is net shortage of USD,” he writes, pointing to Capriol’s own “USD positioning” gauge, aggregating futures data across major currencies. The metric has been “deeply negative” since early summer, indicating that global investors are critically betting on the dollar and supporting hard assets.

Related readings

Another pillar is credits. The BBB rated corporate bond spread has been shattered more closely since 2020 since spring, a classic risk-on signal in the traditional market that has nearly mapped tics to major Bitcoin up maubes. “More evidence,” Edwards says, “Bitcoin is a Tradfi asset.”

Perhaps the strongest tail wind is the growth of raw money. Global M3 is enlarged with 9% clips per year. This is a historically extreme rate that Capriol has stated that it ultimately coincided with an average 12-month Bitcoin return of around 460%. Edwards warns that Bitcoin is unlikely to repeat its size as a trillion dollar asset today.

Capriole’s framework is also based on the historical lead rug relationship between gold and Bitcoin. Once bullion entered a meaningful breakout, Bitcoin tended to continue after 3-4 months. Gold’s early 2025 surge and its outperformance and global stocks therefore provided “a strong support for the decline in demand for fiat money in the current market and the favor of hard money,” Edwards argues. Bitcoin has risen 28% since Capriol flagged the gold move in April.

The stocks also offer green lights. The New York Stock Exchange Advance and Deklein lines lost to new highs last week, but Capriol’s “Equity Premium” indicator reset to zero in late May.

All of these data points are fed to the company’s flagship Bitcoin macro index, a combination of numerous public and proprietary variables that Capriol uses to form the fund’s trading exposure. Even after the latest vertical movement of the coin, the index is “still in a strong, positive growth area,” reported Edwards. It suggests that the underlying drivers – fluid, risk emotion, and chain activity “stays intact.”

Bitcoin Ministry of Finance – Company Flywheel

But perhaps the most striking piece of the puzzle is outside of pure macros. Edwards highlights the emergence of Bitcoin Finance Companies (TCS). It will organize vehicles raising fiat capital in the equity or debt market and roll out to Spot BTC as a new “major bubble dynamics of this cycle.”

Related readings

The quarterly inflow into TCS reached $15 billion in the second quarter, with Capriol having at least 145 such companies pursuing their strategy. In the market capitalization expanded on balance sheet coin paper, Edwards believes “is likely to help add more than $1 trillion to Bitcoin’s market capitalization next year,” they expand on balance sheet coin paper.

He rejects the notion that this corresponds to unhealthy centralization. “If Bitcoin is one day a basic money, we need to scale it to tens of trillions to flatten the volatility.

Edwards emphasizes that his analysis is on the horizon for months. “When Bitcoin sees a massive gathering, there’s always a strong pullback and local overheating,” he admits, adding that the newsletter intentionally sidelines short-term on-chain bubbles, focusing on “the big picture and driving factors for the next six months.”

Still, Capriol’s conclusions are clear as Central Bank’s liquidity is abundant, dollars are crowded, credit stress is calming, and a structurally new pool of corporate buyers intervening. The liquidity tap is wide open and only supplied with Bitcoin Supercycle.

“The early adopters today may be considered speculators, but that will become very obvious in hindsight. After the Treasury waves become the government’s financial waves (the next cycle).

At the time of pressing, BTC was traded for $122,438.

Bitcoin Price
BTC price is 1.414 FIB, turn to one day chart Source: BTCUSDT on tradingView.com

Featured images created with dall.e, charts on tradingview.com

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Why liquidity is more important than ever for Bitcoin https://earlybirdsinvest.com/why-liquidity-is-more-important-than-ever-for-bitcoin/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/why-liquidity-is-more-important-than-ever-for-bitcoin/#respond Sat, 05 Jul 2025 16:05:17 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/why-liquidity-is-more-important-than-ever-for-bitcoin/

Global liquidity is one of the cornerstone indicators used to assess macroeconomic conditions, and has been used in particular when predicting the price trajectory of Bitcoin. As liquidity increases, so does capital flow into risk-on assets such as Bitcoin. However, in this evolving market situation, more responsive and perhaps even more accurate metrics are emerging.

Global M2

Let’s start with the Global M2 vs BTC chart. This is one of the most shared and analyzed charts in Bitcoin Magazine Pro throughout the current Bull Cycle, and for good reason. The M2 supply includes all the physical currencies and almost money assets in the economy. Globally consolidated across major economies, it draws a clear picture of fiscal stimulus and central bank actions.

Figure 1: Global M2 vs BTC charts establish themselves as key forecast metrics. View live charts

Historically, major expansions of the M2, particularly those driven by money printing and financial intervention, have coincided with the explosive Bitcoin rallies. The 2020 Bull Run was an example of a textbook. Trillions of stimuli have flooded the global economy, with Bitcoin exceeding thousands to $60,000. A similar pattern occurred between 2016 and 2017, and conversely, periods such as 2018-2019 and 2022 made M2 ​​contractions consistent along the BTC bare market.

Stronger correlation

However, while the RAW M2 chart is convincing, viewing the year-over-year global M2 vs BTC provides a more practical view. The basic M2 is almost always supplying upward trend, as the government tends to print money at all times. But the speed of acceleration or deceleration is another story. As the growth rate of M2 increases from the previous year, Bitcoin tends to collect. Bitcoin usually struggles when it drops or becomes negative. This trend underscores the deep connection between widening Fiat liquidity and Bitcoin bullishness, despite the short-term noise.

Figure 2: Switching to the global M2 and BTC Yoy chart reveals a stronger correlation between these two metrics. View live charts

But attention is being paid. M2 data is slow. It takes time to collect, update and reflect the entire economy. And the impact of increased liquidity will not immediately be on Bitcoin. Initially, new liquidity flows into safer assets such as bonds, gold, and then stocks, and then the height of speculative assets such as BTC. This delay is essential for timing strategies. You can add delays to this data, but the points remain.

stablecoins

To address this latency, pivot to the liquidity of Stablecoin, a more timely and encryption native metric: Comparing BTC with the supply of major stub coins (USDT, USDC, DAI, etc.) reveals even stronger correlations than M2.

Figure 3: Historically, changes in Stablecoin liquidity are consistent with the Bitcoin cycle.

Currently, just tracking the raw value of Stablecoin Supply is worth some degree, but to truly gain an advantage, we look at the rate of change on a rolling basis, especially on a 28-day (monthly) day. This change in supply is a very indication of short-term liquidity trends. When the rate is positive, it often marks the beginning of a new BTC accumulation phase. When it suddenly becomes negative, it coincides with the local top and retracement.

Figure 4: Plots of the rate of change in the supply rate of Stablecoin demonstrate how liquidity trends closely match BTC price action.

Looking back at the tail end in 2024, Stablecoin’s growth surged, causing BTC to surge from long-term integration to new highs. Similarly, a sudden negative turn of growth in Stablecoin supply took place prior to a major drawdown of 30% earlier this year. These movements were tracked through this metric until that day. More recent rebounds from Stablecoin Supply are beginning to show early signs of potential bounces in BTC prices, suggesting a new influx into the crypto market.

Figure 5: In the past, indicators triggered by liquidity rates above zero were reliable purchase signals.

The values ​​in this data are not new. Crypto veterans remember the Tether Printer account on Twitter dating back to 2017, looking at all USDT mint as a Bitcoin pump signal. The difference is that this can be measured more accurately, in real time, and by adding additional rate of change analysis. What makes this even more powerful is the intracicle and intraday tracking features. Unlike the rarely updated global M2 chart, Stablecoin liquidity data can be used live and in short time frames. Tracking positive changes in this change can provide a great accumulation opportunity.

Conclusion

Global M2 growth is consistent with the long-term Bitcoin trend, but the metrics of stable rate of change provide clarity in the cycle positioning. Deserves a spot in all analyst toolkits. Considering using simple strategies such as looking for crossovers above zero with a 28-day rate of change for accumulation and scaling when extreme spikes occur will work very well and may continue to do so.

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Crypto Strategist Unveils Bitcoin Path to New All-Time High Next Month, Says Plenty of Liquidity To Trigger Run for Altcoins https://earlybirdsinvest.com/crypto-strategist-unveils-bitcoin-path-to-new-all-time-high-next-month-says-plenty-of-liquidity-to-trigger-run-for-altcoins/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/crypto-strategist-unveils-bitcoin-path-to-new-all-time-high-next-month-says-plenty-of-liquidity-to-trigger-run-for-altcoins/#respond Sun, 29 Jun 2025 22:28:57 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/crypto-strategist-unveils-bitcoin-path-to-new-all-time-high-next-month-says-plenty-of-liquidity-to-trigger-run-for-altcoins/

A crypto analyst gaining traction for timely Bitcoin calls is outlining a scenario where BTC breaks free from sideways trading and surges to new all-time highs.

Pseudonymous analyst Credible tells his 468,700 followers on the social media platform X that Bitcoin appears to be following an Elliott Wave (EW) pattern where BTC consolidates in the next few weeks before igniting a breakout rally toward the end of July.

Elliott Wave theory is an advanced form of technical analysis that seeks to forecast future price movements by tracking crowd psychology, which often unfolds in recurring wave patterns.

Says Credible,

“BTC holding up very well over the last few days.

As stated in my last update, I think we will test the blue zone sooner or later, whether that be before or after taking our local range highs.

From an EW perspective, something like this would be ideal. Although there are, of course, a few different structures that we may see to complete this correction, structures that lead to a tighter compression before expansion are always preferred because a substantial decrease in volatility/compression usually leads to a stronger breakout after.

Focus should remain on key levels (blue zone and range highs) in terms of areas of interest.”

Image
Source: Credible/X

Based on the trader’s chart, he seems to suggest that Bitcoin will briefly rally above $110,000 before pulling back to the $100,000 level to gear up for a breakout surge.

As for the altcoin market, Credible thinks that alts will witness huge upside bursts despite concerns about liquidity sources. According to the analyst, crypto investors had the same liquidity worry about Bitcoin when it was trading below $30,000, and now BTC is worth $107,417.

“Stop worrying about ‘where the liquidity will come from’ for alts.

At this stage, crypto is like a teardrop in the ocean – there is plenty of liquidity out there.”

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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