Kalshi – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Mon, 25 Aug 2025 18:08:51 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.7 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Kalshi – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 Kalshi taps influencer to head crypto arm https://earlybirdsinvest.com/kalshi-taps-influencer-to-head-crypto-arm/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/kalshi-taps-influencer-to-head-crypto-arm/#respond Mon, 25 Aug 2025 18:08:50 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/kalshi-taps-influencer-to-head-crypto-arm/

Prediction market platform Kalshi has hired digital assets influencer John Wang as its head of crypto in a move the CEO called “betting on slope.”

In a Monday notice, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said the company had hired the 23-year-old New York-based influencer, who dropped out of the University of Pennsylvania “to pursue crypto” in 2024. According to his LinkedIn, Wang worked as a fellow at Paradigm and an intern at Immutable before co-founding blockchain security company Armor Labs in 2022. 

“Slope is about high quality thinking, dreaming big, and working mercilessly hard,” said Mansour. “The more time I spent with John, the deeper my conviction grew. I can’t wait for us to tackle the roadmap we are putting together.”

Wang’s position comes while Kalshi is under scrutiny as US lawmakers consider Brian Quintenz’s nomination to chair the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), an agency with regulatory authority over the company.

The CFTC filed an enforcement action against Kalshi in September 2024 while under the Biden administration, but filed a motion in May to drop the case while under President Donald Trump.

Related: CFTC pressured to probe nominee Brian Quintenz over ties to Kalshi

Political motivation for platform offering election betting?

Wang, as the new head of crypto, suggested that prediction markets could make people more engaged “politically, financially, culturally,” citing his experience monitoring bets over the 2024 US presidential election:

“As an Australian, I can’t vote in the US elections. But prediction markets changed the way I experienced them. In that moment it clicked: this is how society will process truth. Not through punditry or biased takes, but through markets that transform belief into something tangible.”

Though launched in 2021, activity on Kalshi surged ahead of the 2024 US elections, for which the platform offered many options for users to bet. Though the CFTC filed for a temporary injunction to block Kalshi from listing political event contracts, a court ruled in October — one month before the federal elections — that the platform could offer such bets.

Kalshi closed a $185 million funding round in June, making the company’s valuation about $2 billion. The funding round and Wang’s hiring followed the platform announcing it would accept Bitcoin (BTC) deposits in April as part of efforts to onboard more crypto-native users.

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]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/kalshi-taps-influencer-to-head-crypto-arm/feed/ 0 55074 Crypto Prediction Platform Kalshi Valued at $2B After Latest Funding Round https://earlybirdsinvest.com/crypto-prediction-platform-kalshi-valued-at-2b-after-latest-funding-round/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/crypto-prediction-platform-kalshi-valued-at-2b-after-latest-funding-round/#respond Thu, 26 Jun 2025 06:45:08 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/crypto-prediction-platform-kalshi-valued-at-2b-after-latest-funding-round/

Crypto prediction market platform Kalshi has raised $185 million in a Series C round led by Paradigm, reaching a $2 billion post-money valuation.

“People choose to work at Kalshi not because of the money we’ve raised, but because of our ambition: build the most important financial market on the planet,” said CEO Tarek Mansour, celebrating the news on X.

The round was led by crypto venture firm Paradigm with participation from Sequoia, Multicoin, Neo and Bond Capital, and Citadel Securities.

Early Days for Prediction Markets

Paradigm’s Matt Huang compared the sector to crypto’s early days and predicted that it could become a trillion-dollar asset class.

“Prediction markets remind me a lot of what crypto felt like a decade ago: a nascent asset class on a path to trillions.”

Mansour stated that the funding would go towards scaling up the firm’s technology team so it can integrate with more brokers. It has already partnered with Robinhood Markets and Webull, which offer their customers access to Kalshi’s contracts, reported the Wall Street Journal.

The timing is notable as Kalshi’s main rival, Polymarket, is simultaneously raising $200 million at around a $1 billion pre-money valuation from Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund.

Kalshi has an edge for the premium valuation. It operates legally in the United States under CFTC regulation, while Polymarket has been banned from the US since 2022 and faces restrictions in multiple other countries, including the UK, France, Singapore, and Thailand.

Nevertheless, Nevada and New Jersey state gambling regulators are actively trying to block Kalshi’s sports betting operations, arguing that sports betting should be regulated at the state level, not federally.

In February, the CFTC probed Crypto.com and Kalshi’s Super Bowl event contracts seeking clarity on derivatives compliance.

Prediction Market Volumes Fall

Prediction market platforms such a Polymarket surged in popularity during the US presidential elections in November; however, post-election trading volumes have declined significantly.

Polymarket’s monthly trading volume for May was around $1.1 billion, down 56% from its November peak of around $2.5 billion, according to Dune Analytics.

Kalshi pivoted heavily into sports betting, with almost 80% of daily trading volume in March and April being sports-related.

Both companies are capitalizing on growing interest in prediction markets, though they’re taking vastly different approaches to regulation and market access.

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]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/crypto-prediction-platform-kalshi-valued-at-2b-after-latest-funding-round/feed/ 0 44180 Kalshi traders place the odds of US recession in 2025 at over 61% https://earlybirdsinvest.com/kalshi-traders-place-the-odds-of-us-recession-in-2025-at-over-61/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/kalshi-traders-place-the-odds-of-us-recession-in-2025-at-over-61/#respond Sun, 06 Apr 2025 02:35:12 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/kalshi-traders-place-the-odds-of-us-recession-in-2025-at-over-61/

Traders on the Kalshi prediction market place the odds of a US recession in 2025 at 61%, following the sweeping tariff order signed by President Donald Trump on April 2.

Kalshi uses the standard criteria of a recession, two business quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth, as reported by the United States Department of Commerce.

Odds of a US recession on the prediction platform have nearly doubled since March 20 and mirror the current 2025 US recession odds on Polymarket, which traders on the platform currently place at 60%.

The macroeconomic outlook for 2025 deteriorated rapidly following US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff order and the ensuing sell-off in capital markets, sparking fears of a prolonged bear market.

Economy, United States

Odds of US recession in 2025 top 60% on the Kalshi prediction market. Source: kalshi

Related: Bitcoin bulls defend $80K support as ‘World War 3 of trade wars’ crushes US stocks

Trump’s executive order throws markets in disarray

The US President’s executive order established a 10% baseline tariff rate for all countries and different “reciprocal” tariff rates on trading partners with existing tariffs on US import goods.

Trump’s announcement triggered an immediate stock market sell-off, wiping away over $5 trillion in shareholder value in a matter of days.

Fears of a recession continue to grow as market analysts warn of a potentially protracted trade war that negatively impacts global markets and suppresses risk asset prices, including cryptocurrencies.

Meanwhile, President Trump has expressed confidence that the tariffs will strengthen the US economy long-term and correct any trade imbalances.

“The markets are going to boom,” the President said on April 3, describing the current market sell-off as an expected part of the process.

Economy, United States

The stock market sell-off continues as stocks shed trillions in shareholder value. Source: TradingView

Asset manager Anthony Pompliano recently speculated that President Trump deliberately crashed markets to bring down interest rates.

Pompliano cited the reduction in 10-year US Treasury bonds as evidence that the President’s strategy of forcing a recession to impact rates is working.

Interest rates on 10-year US Treasury bonds declined from approximately 4.66% in January 2025 to just 4.00% on April 5. President Trump is also pressuring Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell to lower short-term interest rates.

“This would be a perfect time for Fed chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates,” Trump wrote in an April 4 Truth Social post.

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]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/kalshi-traders-place-the-odds-of-us-recession-in-2025-at-over-61/feed/ 0 29249 Robinhood leverages Kalshi to expand trading offerings adding prediction markets https://earlybirdsinvest.com/robinhood-leverages-kalshi-to-expand-trading-offerings-adding-prediction-markets/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/robinhood-leverages-kalshi-to-expand-trading-offerings-adding-prediction-markets/#respond Mon, 17 Mar 2025 15:44:51 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/robinhood-leverages-kalshi-to-expand-trading-offerings-adding-prediction-markets/

Robinhood has launched a dedicated prediction market hub that will allow users to trade contracts based on the outcomes of key global events.

According to a March 17 statement, the platform’s initial offerings include contracts tied to the Federal Reserve’s target interest rate for May and the men’s and women’s College Basketball Tournaments.

The firm explained:

“Each contract represents an approximate probability between 1% and 99%, with each cent effectively representing a 1% probability that the event will occur. For example, if a contract is priced at 53 cents, this can be interpreted as a 53% probability that it will occur according to that market.”

The service will be available to eligible customers across the US through KalshiEX LLC, a regulated exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Over time, Robinhood plans to introduce contracts covering various topics, including financial markets, politics, and sports.

J.B. Mackenzie, Robinhood’s VP and GM of Futures and International emphasized the company’s commitment to innovation and highlighted the importance of prediction markets in capturing insights across finance, news, and culture.

The firm further explained that building a standalone prediction markets hub allows it to better serve its customers looking to engage with events that align with their interests.

Robinhood’s prediction marketplace efforts

Prediction markets allow traders to place financial bets on future events, incentivizing accurate forecasting. While these markets faced regulatory hurdles in the US, interest has grown recently.

During the 2024 US presidential election, event-based betting platforms like Polymarkets saw increased participation and correctly predicted Donald Trump’s victory.

Robinhood briefly entered this space during that period, offering election-related contracts. The company later tested a Super Bowl betting market but withdrew it due to compliance challenges.

Robinhood asserts that its latest initiative follows all necessary regulatory guidelines this time. The company said it has engaged with the CFTC to ensure compliance, with Mackenzie stating:

“We’re excited to offer our customers a new way to participate in prediction markets and look forward to doing so in compliance with existing regulations.”

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