JPMorgan remains bullish on U.S. stocks even as some observers warn that the economy is beginning to pay the price for President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The investment banking giant forecasts that the S&P 500, Wall Street’s benchmark index, will yield a “high single-digit return over the next 12 months,” driven by three key factors.

One of the main reasons for optimism is that markets don’t care about signs of an economic slowdown. Instead, traders are focused on resilient corporate earnings and the subsequent economic recovery.

Since President Trump fired the first tariff salvo on April 2, economists have downgraded full-year U.S. growth forecasts from 2.3% to 1.5%. Still, the S&P 500 has gained over 28% in the four months. The index has held steady despite recent economic data revealing softness in the labour market and consumption, as well as stickiness in manufacturing and service sector inflation.

While the macro analysts’ warning is concerning and likely playing out in the background, corporate earnings in the U.S. are ignoring the slowdown risks, at least in the short term, making it the second catalyst for JPMorgan’s bullish thesis.

Over 80% of S&P 500 companies have recently reported their Q2 earnings, with 82% surpassing earnings expectations and 79% beating revenue forecasts—the strongest performance since the second quarter of 2021.

The winners and losers

According to JPMorgan, while Wall Street analysts initially projected earnings growth below 5%, the index is now on pace for an impressive 11% growth rate. This robust showing supports the ongoing bullish trend in the stock market.

“The full-year earnings expectations for both this year and next have already started to turn higher,” analysts at JPMorgan’s wealth management said in a market note on Friday, adding that the market is increasingly differentiating between the winners and losers of the Trump trade war.

Additionally, the market is now figuring out and pricing in which companies are getting hit most by U.S. tariffs. So far, it looks like mega corporations will be just fine. This could bolster the case for further positive sentiment in the markets.

JPMorgan analysts explained that consumer-facing and smaller companies with restrained bargaining power against their trading partners and rigid supply chains are facing a stagnant earnings outlook.

This ties to JPMorgan’s last catalyst: Trump’s tariff bark is proving worse than its bite for large firms, which are managing to secure exemptions and even turn the tariff policies, aimed at sparking a manufacturing boom, into a tailwind.

“The latest example is President Donald Trump’s suggestion that imported semiconductors would be taxed at a 100% rate unless the companies commit to relocating production to the United States. Another sign? Apple products are exempted from the latest tariff rates on Indian goods. Indeed, the company also announced an additional $100 billion investment in U.S. manufacturing facilities. The stock gained almost 9% this week. Tariffs are not happening in a vacuum,” analysts explained.

Big firms gain an additional advantage from the One Big Beautiful Act (OBBA), under which firms can claim 100% bonus depreciation for purchases of qualified business property and immediate expense of domestic research and development costs. According to some analysts, the depreciation policy could increase free cash flow for some by over 30%, which could incentivize more investment.

The bank added that its investment strategy remains focused on large-cap equities, particularly in the technology, financials, and utilities sectors, which it believes are best positioned to navigate this new economic environment.

The crypto angle

JPMorgan’s positive outlook for stocks could bode well for cryptocurrencies, as both tend to move in tandem. The digital assets market has plenty going on for itself, with the Trump administration appointing pro-crypto officials to key regulatory positions.

Recently, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ruled that liquid staking, under certain conditions, falls outside the purview of Securities Law. The ruling has raised hopes for staking spot ether ETFs winning regulatory approval.

Ether has rallied over 13% to over $4,200, reaching levels last seen in 2021. Prices surged nearly 50% last month, CoinDesk data show.

An Arizona couple is reportedly out $20,000 after a Chase Bank employee accidentally unfroze funds taken by a scammer.

In March, the couple received a text asking if they authorized a $399 Zelle payment to “Susan Smith,” according to a new report from 12 News.

They replied “No” and were given a number to call. After calling the number, someone on the other line who was claiming to be a bank employee said the couple’s account had been flagged for fraud. The scammer on the phone also told the couple that it looked like it was  an “inside job.”

Following instructions, the couple went to a Chase Bank and withdrew $20,000 and then opened a new account through Apple Wallet, depositing the money there.

The scammer then stole the money, but employees at Chase Bank managed to freeze the funds later that day. A few days later, however, someone at the bank unfroze the account, allowing the con artist to make off with the money.

Chase has contacted the couple and told them that their case is still open. Peoria police tell 12 News that they’ve identified a suspect in Florida.

A similar incident in Arizona occurred last month when a scammer reportedly drained $27,000 in life savings from a man in Arizona by pretending to be his bank representative.

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As the crypto industry is experiencing a bullish revival supported by a more favorable regulatory environment in the United States, major financial institutions want to reassess previous skepticism about digital currencies and explore opportunities now within the sector.

Collaboration with JPMorgan and Coinbase

Recent Passes of Key Laws – Genius Law, the Clear Act of Digital Asset Markets, and the Anti-Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) bill, through Congress, encourages more banks and businesses to consider integrating digital assets into their businesses.

This new interest comes when the cryptocurrency market reaches an impressive valuation of around $4 trillion, with regulatory clarity hoping for continued growth in major markets as well.

Starting in 2026, JPMorgan customers can use Chase Credit Cards to fund their Coinbase wallets, making it easier to access cryptocurrency purchases.

The partnership allows Chase customers to redeem Circle’s USDC Stablecoin credit card reward points. This feature reflects the increased integration of digital assets into everyday financial transactions, along with the ability to directly link bank accounts to Coinbase to fund cryptocurrency purchases.

The financial giant step into the crypto market

Designed to minimize price volatility, Stablecoins are positioned as an essential tool for driving seamless transactions in both transactions and payments. They are now under a new regulatory framework established by the Genius Act, signed by President Donald Trump.

Market analysts note that cryptocurrency adoption is set to accelerate in light of recent legislative changes. BCA Research highlights that businesses within the crypto ecosystem are well suited to benefit from this growth, suggesting that an increase in adoption will lead to rising prices for digital assets.

Coinbase’s stock, Coin has been actively responding to partnership news, climbing 6% in Wednesday’s trading session, closing the day at $377, reflecting a broader trend in the company’s performance.

This year, an increase of around 50%, Coinbase achieved a market capitalization of around $95 billion, further strengthening its role as a leader in the cryptocurrency space.

Reuters highlighted that Crypto Exchange’s recent inclusion in the S&P 500 index highlights its growing importance and acceptance in the mainstream financial world.

Other financial institutions are also taking steps to get involved in the crypto market. Earlier this month, PNC Bank announced a collaboration with Coinbase, offering cryptocurrency transactions to its customers, indicating that interest in digital assets is not limited to JPMorgan alone.

Citibank, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are one of the biggest US banks to participate in this growth trend, and cryptocurrencies are expected to make a huge profit.

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Financial technology middlemen reportedly sent investment banking giant JPMorgan Chase 1.89 billion data requests in the month of June.

In an internal company memo reviewed by CNBC, a JPMorgan systems employee noted that only 13% of those requests were initiated by a customer for transactions.

“Aggregators are accessing customer data multiple times daily, even when the customer is not actively using the app. These access requests are massively taxing our systems.”

An anonymous source with knowledge of the memo tells CNBC that the requests often involve helping fintech companies bolster their products or stop fraud.

Earlier this month, JPMorgan informed fintech companies such as PayPal, Venmo and Coinbase that they will need to begin paying to access their customers’ bank account information, a move that sparked controversy in the digital asset sector.

Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss claims the investment bank is attempting to sabotage fintech and crypto firms, accusing JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon of trying to wreck President Donald Trump’s attempts to embrace digital assets.

“This will bankrupt fintechs that help you link your bank accounts to crypto companies like Gemini, Coinbase, and Kraken so you can easily fund your account with fiat to buy Bitcoin and crypto…

Jamie Dimon and his cronies are trying to undercut President Trump’s mandate to make America the pro-innovation and the crypto capital of the world. We must fight back!”

Dimon, however, defended the fee proposal during the bank’s second-quarter earnings call.

“So, this is very important. So forget pricing for a second, we are in favor of the customer, but we think the customer has the right to if they want to share their information. What we ask people to do is, what do they – do they actually know what’s being shared? What is actually being shared? It shouldn’t be everything. It should be what their customer wants. It should have a time limit because some of these things went on for years. It should not be re-marketed or resold to third parties. And so, we’re kind of in favor of all that, done properly.

And then the payment, it just costs a lot of money to set up the APIs (application programming interfaces) and stuff like that to run the system’s protection. So, we just think it should be done and done right. And that’s the main part. It’s not like you can’t do it.”

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Analysts at the financial giant JPMorgan Chase think Goldman Sachs’ new partnership with BNY is a “significant leap forward” for tokenized money market funds, according to a new Bloomberg report.

Goldman and BNY recently announced a joint venture to launch tokenized money market fund services using a blockchain developed by Goldman.

BlackRock, BNY Investments Dreyfus, Federated Hermes, Fidelity Investments and Goldman Sachs Asset Management all plan to participate in the launch of the new service.

Teresa Ho, a managing director at JPMorgan, tells Bloomberg the partnership could expand the use cases for money market funds.

“The true takeaway from this is beyond the typical way we see money funds being used as a cash management asset class — they can now use it as collateral. Instead of posting cash, or posting Treasuries, you can post money-market shares and not lose interest along the way. It speaks to the versatility of money funds.”

Ho also notes that numerous other financial firms see the potential benefit of tokenization amid blossoming regulatory clarity.

“This is true across banks, asset managers, and payment processors. We wouldn’t be surprised to continue to see more developments with respect to stablecoins being more integrated with the traditional financial system, as well as more tokenization of real-world assets.”

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Tyler Winklevos says Jpmorgan has paused Gemini After publicly criticizing the bank, they attempt to restore access to the bank. According to him, the decision came shortly after he posted the tweet. Call out Major Banks fight Open banking reform. He believes in timing It wasn’t By chance.

My tweets from last week have been a nervous one. This week, JPMorgan said it was pausing their playboards for that reason. @gemini Operations as a customer after turning off us during 2.0. They want us to remain silent while we quietly try to steal you… https://t.co/c9ls7qpamt

– Tyler Winclevos (@tyler) July 25th, 2025

Tweets that changed everything

On July 19, Winklevoss accused the banking industry of trying to block consumer financial protections Bureau Open banking rules. He claimed that the banks were trying to stop consumers from sharing them. My own Data via platforms such as Plaid. Immediately after he aired his opinion, Gemini Re-editing with JPMorgan reportedly has stagnated. Winklevoss saw it as a punishment for speaking up.

what At risk for users and fintech

The open banking rules in question fall under Section 1033 of the Consumer Financial Protection Act. They aim to control their financial data to consumers; Allow They share it with apps and services They choose. Winklevoss claims that the banks are try out In turn around This will be the payment model of by addition Fees, it would It hurts Smaller Fintech and Cryptographic Platforms Depend Above Smooth Transfer from Fiat to Crypto.

Is this about money and power?

Winklevoss I didn’t do it Keep it down. He framed bank Resistance as a way to protect the role of gatekeepers in the financial system. In his view, the Less about cost coverage and more about controlling data. He warned that banks were pushing back not only through lobbying but through legal measures aimed at delaying or undermining rules completely.

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Others in the industry will back him up

He is It’s not the only one that’s making the alarm sound. Arjun Seti, Kraken’s The CO-CEO weighed himself with him. My own Criticism. He said the banks handle access to user data like products. It’s on saleyou can lock people in a walled garden. Nic Carter also rang, tying the whole situation. what It is often referred to as Operation Choke Point 2.0. Clear explanation.

Gemini Bank History and Workarounds

Gemini had a connection with JP Morgan before regulators began pushing banks to distance themselves from crypto companies in 2023 and early 2024. Since then, the company has been seeking alternative bank partners. this I wouldn’t do that This is the first time Winclevos twins have had to pivot. They are We dealt with issues that have previously been removed, expanded internationally and addressed by building a variety of payment rails.

Discovery: Next 1000x Ciphers: 10+ Ciphers tokens that could hit 1000X in 2025

jpmorgan’s Silence says a lot

bank it’s not I’ve commented publicly Winklevoss’s Claim. In the past, JPMorgan has defended billing fees for access to data infrastructure, and CEO Jamie Dimon it’s not He was truly shy about his distrust of code. Whether the debate suspends are personal, political or procedural, JP Morgan is quiet for now.

this teeth Part of the broader battle for who Get it To control financial data. If rates become standard, it can be difficult for new players to compete and make it difficult for users to freely connect to the services they wish to make in a bank account. The outcome of this conflict could shape the future of open banking in the United States for years to come.

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Gemini co‑founder Tyler Winklevoss said JPMorgan froze the crypto exchange’s effort to regain banking services after he accused “banksters” of trying to strangle fintech and crypto firms.

In a thread on July 25, Winklevoss claimed the bank told Gemini that his earlier tweet had prompted a pause in re‑onboarding, an effort underway since JPMorgan off‑boarded the company during what he calls “Operation Choke Point 2.0.” 

He added:

“They want us to stay silent while they quietly try to take away your right to access your banking data for free […] We will continue to call out this anti‑competitive, rent‑seeking behavior.”

The cause

The July 19 post that he said “struck a nerve” accused large banks of fighting the US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s (CFPB) open‑banking rule under Section 1033 of the Consumer Financial Protection Act. 

That rule, still being implemented, would guarantee consumers free third-party access to their account data through aggregators such as Plaid.

Plaid is a conduit many Americans use to connect their checking accounts with crypto platforms, including Gemini, Coinbase, and Kraken.

Winklevoss alleged that JPMorgan and other institutions want to replace free data feeds with “exorbitant fees,” a shift he warned would “bankrupt fintechs” and stifle the on‑ramp that lets retail customers fund crypto purchases with dollars.

Strangling the crypto industry

He framed the banks’ lawsuit against the CFPB as an example of “egregious regulatory capture” and cast the fight as a direct challenge to President Donald Trump’s stated goal of making the US “the crypto capital of the world.”

JPMorgan has not publicly addressed Winklevoss’s allegations.

Several exchanges lost long-standing accounts in 2023 and early 2024 amid heightened regulatory scrutiny, forcing them to seek new partners or international workarounds.

Gemini, which previously used JPMorgan for corporate banking, has been courting new and former providers as it expands its international derivatives venue and bids for broader US offerings.

Some crypto voices, such as CoinMetrics co-founder Nic Carter, link these actions to a series of enforcement actions by banking authorities under the former President Joe Biden administration, known as Operation Chokepoint 2.0.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Acting Chairman Travis Hill acknowledged a targeted effort from the agency towards “debanking” crypto firms. 

During a speech in January, he deemed such actions “unacceptable.”

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