Investors are counting down to the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 17 monetary policy decision; markets expect a quarter-point rate cut that could trigger short-term volatility but potentially fuel longer-term gains across risk assets.

The economic backdrop highlights the Fed’s delicate balancing act.

According to the latest CPI report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday, consumer prices rose 0.4% in August, lifting the annual CPI rate to 2.9% from 2.7% in July, as shelter, food, and gasoline pushed costs higher. Core CPI also climbed 0.3%, extending its steady pace of recent months.

Producer prices told a similar story: per the latest PPI report released on Wednesday, the headline PPI index slipped 0.1% in August but remained 2.6% higher than a year earlier, while core PPI advanced 2.8%, the largest yearly increase since March. Together, the reports underscore stubborn inflationary pressure even as growth slows.

The labor market has softened further.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000 in August, with federal government and energy sector job losses offsetting modest gains in health care. Unemployment held at 4.3%, while labor force participation remained stuck at 62.3%.

Revisions showed June and July job growth was weaker than initially reported, reinforcing signs of cooling momentum. Average hourly earnings still rose 3.7% year over year, keeping wage pressures alive.

Bond markets have adjusted accordingly. Per data from MarketWatch, 2-year Treasury yield sits at 3.56%, while the 10-year is at 4.07%, leaving the curve modestly inverted. Futures traders see a 93% chance of a 25 basis point cut, according to CME FedWatch.

If the Fed limits its move to just 25 bps, investors may react with a “buy the rumor, sell the news” response, since markets have already priced in relief.

Equities are testing record levels.

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,584 after rising 1.6% for the week, its best since early August. The index’s one-month chart shows a strong rebound from its late-August pullback, underscoring bullish sentiment heading into Fed week.

The Nasdaq Composite also notched five straight record highs, ending at 22,141, powered by gains in megacap tech stocks, while the Dow slipped below 46,000 but still booked a weekly advance.

Crypto and commodities have rallied alongside.

Bitcoin is trading at $115,234, below its Aug. 14 all-time high near $124,000 but still firmly higher in 2025, with the global crypto market cap now $4.14 trillion.

Gold has surged to $3,643 per ounce, near record highs, with its one-month chart showing a steady upward trajectory as investors price in lower real yields and seek inflation hedges.

Historical precedent supports the cautious optimism.

Analysis from the Kobeissi Letter — reported in an X thread posted Saturday — citing Carson Research, shows that in 20 of 20 prior cases since 1980 where the Fed cut rates within 2% of S&P 500 all-time highs, the index was higher one year later, averaging gains of nearly 14%.

The shorter term is less predictable: in 11 of those 22 instances, stocks fell in the month following the cut. Kobeissi argues this time could follow a similar pattern — initial turbulence followed by longer-term gains as rate relief amplifies the momentum behind assets like equities, bitcoin and gold.

The broader setup explains why traders are watching the Sept. 17 announcement closely.

Cutting rates while inflation edges higher and stocks hover at records risks denting credibility, yet staying on hold could spook markets that have already priced in easing. Either way, the Fed’s message on growth, inflation, and its policy outlook will likely shape the trajectory of markets for months to come.

Bitcoin has been moving sideways, and traders are starting to lose patience. The world’s largest cryptocurrency couldn’t hold recent highs, sparking talk about whether the market is bracing for a sharper swing. Some analysts say the pause is normal, others warn it could be the calm before the storm.

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Traders Watch Price Levels Closely

Popular market watcher Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that Bitcoin’s struggle to pick a direction isn’t unusual. He noted the coin has been locked between support and resistance zones, with neither bulls nor bears taking control. It’s the kind of setup that often leads to big moves once one side gives in.

$BTC August has been pretty uneventful for Bitcoin so far. We’ve seen some movement but no clear direction as price consolidates in this current range.

Never in history, has BTC seen both a green August and September. We tend to see a quick flush followed by an explosive Q4 in… pic.twitter.com/cClxJUG6Vh

— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) August 17, 2025 

Meanwhile, technical evidence sends mixed signals. By September 16, 2025, Bitcoin will reportedly hit at least $130,266, which is a 13.07% increase compared to the previous prediction.

The Fear & Greed Index is currently at 60, indicating that greed is on the menu, while sentiment indicators are neutral.

In the last 30 days, Bitcoin had 14 green sessions out of 30, and the average performance remained on the positive at 1.63%. That isn’t extreme, but it does indicate that traders are being cautious.

Analysts Split On What’s Next

There are a few investors who believe the current lull is nothing but a breather before another rally. They say that buying interest remains high, particularly with long-term demand coming from institutions.

Skeptics, however, believe the latest rejection at higher levels is a sign of weakness and that another pullback opportunity has opened up.

Jitters in the marketplace always invite disorientation, and this moment is no exception. A 13% gain sounds exciting, but sentiment may change in a heartbeat if the Bitcoin price loses the entire support level.

Traders are keen to see if momentum will pick up or if the sideways chop will continue.

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Is It A Good Time To Buy?

Based on technical indicators, reports suggest it may still be a decent entry point. But timing is tricky. With price forecasts pointing toward $130K and resistance overhead, the next few weeks could decide the short-term trend.

Some see this as a chance to accumulate, while others would rather wait for a clearer breakout.

For now, Bitcoin sits in limbo. Traders are scanning the charts, looking for clues on whether the path to $135K is still alive — or if the market is setting up for another surprise.

Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to its lowest price this month on June 20, triggering $464 million in liquidations across cryptocurrency markets as geopolitical jitters and heavy selling pressure rattled traders.

Bitcoin dropped to a low of $102,225, reversing the gains recorded earlier in the day after failing to break through resistance above $106,000.

Data from Coinglass shows that more than $466 million in leveraged positions were wiped out in the past 24 hours. Of this, $392.9 million came from long positions while about $73.4 million came from shorts.

Ethereum (ETH) liquidations stood at $157.8 million, outpacing Bitcoin’s $124.1 million over the past 24 hours. Over 130,736 traders were liquidated in the latest wipeout, with the largest single liquidation order occurring on Bybit’s BTCUSD pair valued at $8 million.

As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $103,122 as bulls attempted to hold above the $102,000 support established earlier this month. Meanwhile, Ethereum was trading at $2,412 after falling to a low of $2,363.

The wider altcoin market mirrored Ethereum’s performance and fell to new monthly lows despite Bitcoin holding above $102,000.

The latest decline coincided with renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with reports of military strikes reigniting risk aversion across global markets. Equities also traded lower and lingering uncertainty could keep digital assets under pressure in the short term.

Technical analysts warned that if Bitcoin closes below the key $102,000 threshold, it could open the door to deeper losses toward $100,000 or even the mid-$90,000 range. However, the spike in liquidations and extreme negative sentiment might signal a possible short-term bottom if buyers step in to absorb the sell-off.

Bitcoin has been volatile for much of June, repeatedly testing resistance and support between $100,000 and all-time highs. Despite the recent drop, the flagship crypto remains up about 40% year-to-date, supported by strong institutional demand and new exchange-traded fund flows earlier this year.

Markets will be watching closely for signs of stabilization over the weekend, with attention focused on whether Bitcoin can hold above psychological support at $100,000, a level traders view as critical for keeping bullish momentum intact.

Mentioned in this article

The crypto market is slightly bouncing back from early Friday’s jitters on escalating conflict between Israel and Iran.

After slumping to the $102,600 mark, bitcoin

rebounded to around $106,000 before fading lower in the U.S. afternoon hours with reports about a fresh wave of airstrikes targeting Iran. The top cryptocurrency was down 1.6% in the last 24 hours, changing hands at $105,200 and still less than 6% shy of its all-time high price.

Meanwhile, the CoinDesk 20 — an index of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, excluding memecoins, stablecoins and exchange coins — has lost 4.4% in the same period of time. Tokens such as ether

, avalanche and toncoin were the hardest hit, slumping between 6% and 8%.

Crypto stocks, however, aren’t doing too hot. Most equities are in the red, especially bitcoin miners MARA Holdings (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT), down 5% and 4% respectively. A notable exception is stablecoin issuer Circle (CIRCL), which is still benefiting from the windfall of its recent IPO; the stock is up 13% today, with news of retail giants Amazon and Walmart reportedly exploring stablecoins adding to the momentum.

Traditional markets don’t seem overwhelmingly concerned by the war. While gold is up 1.3%, potentially gearing up for new all-time highs, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are only down 0.4% each.

What’s next for bitcoin?

“Nice bounce thus far and lack of follow-through lower,” well-followed crypto trader Skew said in a Friday X post. Market participants will likely remain cautious through the weekend with BTC tightly correlated with traditional markets amid heightened geopolitical risks, Skew added.

On the longer timeframe, some analysts see risks of a deeper pullback.

10x Research founder Markus Thielen noted that BTC’s drop below $106,000 translates to a failed breakout, and traders should wait for more favorable setups before rushing to buy the dip.

He highlighted the $100,000-$101,000 zone as key support, warning that a break below could mark a return to the broader consolidation phase similar to last summer.

John Glover, chief investment officer at bitcoin lender Ledn, argued that bitcoin entered a corrective phase from its record highs that could see the largest digital asset drop to $88,000-$93,000.

He said the $90,000 level could offer a favorable entry for opportunistic investors before BTC resumes its uptrend.

“Once this pattern has played out, the next move higher to the $130,000 area is expected to begin,” he said.