Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, argued that the bull run remains in its early stages based on comprehensive economic indicators.

In a Sept. 8 analysis shared via X, Bittel counters widespread “peak cycle” sentiment in crypto markets, challenging late-cycle narratives by examining traditional economic markers.

Peak sentiment

Classic late-cycle economies typically feature extreme manufacturing sentiment with ISM readings around 60, elevated services sentiment, high homebuilder confidence, strong consumer and worker confidence, bullish investor sentiment, and accelerating wage growth.

Bittel said current data paints a different picture. When scoring inputs from ISM, NAHB, NFIB, BLS, AAII, and The Conference Board into a composite sentiment measure, US economic sentiment remains “very subdued” and far from euphoric late-cycle extremes.

He stated:

“This does not look like an above-trend late-cycle economy. It looks much more like an early-cycle economy trying to build momentum.”

Central bank policy provides additional support for this thesis. Nearly 90% of central banks globally are cutting rates, creating what Bittel describes as “extraordinary” conditions and “a massive tailwind for the business cycle” on a forward-looking basis.

Oil prices reinforce the early-cycle argument, trading nearly 20% below trend and continuing to fall. This represents easing financial conditions rather than the tightening typically associated with late-cycle dynamics.

Historically, oil prices running 50% above trend have signaled recession since the early 1970s.

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Bull cycle in early stages

Temporary Help Services data shows “early-cycle vibes” with rising growth from profoundly negative levels, indicating economic recovery rather than rollover.

According to Bittel, late-cycle periods typically feature positive year-on-year growth that’s slowing, reflecting an overheated economy losing steam.

He attributes rising unemployment to the lagging nature of jobs data, calling it “a six-month look in the rear-view mirror.”

Businesses first increase overtime hours and temporary workers before committing to expensive full-time hires with benefits and pensions.

Bittel also frames current conditions as “early-cycle” transitioning to “mid-cycle,” describing the progression as “Macro Spring” (growth up, inflation down), moving toward “Macro Summer” (growth up, inflation up).

He concluded that this macro perspective challenges the prevailing crypto market sentiment, which suggests that the bull cycle has peaked. Instead, he assessed that the current economic conditions support continued expansion rather than contraction.

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Bitcoin’s price remains in a zone where it is seeing little upward momentum as it continues to hover below its recent all-time high. After reaching above $123,000 earlier this month, the asset has pulled back slightly, trading at $119,343 at the time of writing.

This represents a 2% gain over the past week but still leaves BTC roughly 3% below its recent peak. The muted price action reflects a market that appears to be consolidating amid diverging signals from on-chain indicators and regional demand metrics.

Recent analysis from CryptoQuant contributors points to a weakening appetite for Bitcoin in both the US and South Korea, two markets that have historically contributed significant trading volume.

A closer look at exchange activity and regional pricing premiums suggests a potential shift in investor behavior, as profit-taking becomes more prominent and traders appear hesitant to buy at current levels.

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Regional Premiums Point to Lower Demand from US and South Korea

According to a post by CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain, the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and other global exchanges, has failed to climb significantly despite BTC reaching record highs in July.

The index remained around levels seen in June, suggesting that US investors using Coinbase have not been aggressively buying Bitcoin during the rally.

Arab Chain noted that the index’s movement toward negative territory alongside Bitcoin’s price increase may indicate profit-taking among American investors. This implies that some may be anticipating a correction before re-entering the market.

Similarly, the Korea Premium Index has declined, signaling reduced demand from retail investors in South Korea. This index reflects the spread between Bitcoin’s price on Korean exchanges and global averages.

The negative trend suggests Korean traders have been selling below the global average, with weak buying interest on local platforms. Arab Chain interprets this as retail traders possibly waiting for a discount to reenter the market, indicating caution among individual investors in Asia’s key crypto hub.

Exchange Inflows Suggest Rising Sell Pressure

Adding to the picture, another CryptoQuant contributor, ShayanMarkets, highlighted a notable development in BTC’s on-chain activity. The latest data reveals Bitcoin has experienced its largest net inflow to exchanges since July 2024.

Typically, large inflows signal that holders are preparing to sell, increasing supply on trading platforms and contributing to potential downward price pressure. ShayanMarkets explained that this behavior, especially when occurring near all-time highs, may indicate institutional or fund-driven profit-taking.

Such moves often align with efforts to reduce risk exposure during overextended market rallies. Historically, spikes in exchange inflows have been followed by price corrections, making this a trend to monitor closely.

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However, the redistribution of capital from Bitcoin into other assets may benefit the broader crypto market. The analyst noted that altcoins could see renewed interest as funds rotate out of BTC. If the trend continues, traders may observe increased volatility and speculative movement across alternative tokens in the short term.

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Solana shows strong bullish signs supported by moving average, volume, and momentum indicators. Rally.

What the Bulls need to see to maintain the rally

with x postGEMXBT said the Solana 1-hour chart shows a bullish market structure, with price trading above the 5, 10 and 20-day moving averages. The signs of a short-term moving average indicate that the buyer is in control. Recent price action is supported by notable volume spikes, which checks the strength behind the upward movement and adds reliability to the rally.

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key resistance It’s around $154, when Sol had previously faced sales pressure. This zone determines whether bullish momentum can increase the price. On the downside, support sits near $150. This acts as a cushion to absorb immediate sales pressure and prevent deeper pullbacks.

The relative strength index (RSI) is approaching the territory that was acquired. This may indicate that the asset is due to the period of consolidated or sideways movement before continuing the climb. Meanwhile, moving average convergence divergence (MACD) has recently shown bullish crossovers, suggesting that upward trends could continue when buying interest.

Crypto Investor and Trader Theodor Coin It was revealed The Solana 1 hour chart shows a clear recovery after the DIP seen in early July. Open profits are on the rise, currently exceeding $3.62 billion.

The increase here usually indicates a growing trader market Engagement is a precursor to increased volatility and significant price movements. From here, A breakout that exceeds the $154 resistance could unleash a strong rally supported by growing market interest and positive momentum.

The uptrend line remains the same. It’s a positive sign

Also known as Day on X. update Solana holds it for longer than long term support The level was a lary launchpad with an area of ​​about $120 on the weekly chart.

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Long-term uptrend line It’s still Undamaged, each one gets higher, and the case with large cup and handle patterns becomes stronger. However, this pattern will not be seen until Sol surpasses its $250 important resistance zone. This is the level that limits price action during the previous rally.

If Sol breaks out beyond the $250 zone, you can unlock the $500 measured transport price target. milestone Solana recovers and expands. Analysts also noted that Sol is not there yet, and that the Bulls’ first step is regaining a $185 resistance level.

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Bitcoin (BTC) is beginning to show signs of a trend reversal after several weeks of downward movement, according to a recent encrypted Quicktake post by contributor Burakkemeci. In particular, BTC surged yesterday, for the first time since February 3rd, exceeding $100,000.

Is Bitcoin on the market on the verge of trends?

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has traded just over $100,000. That’s about 5.2% below the all-time high (ATH) $108,786 set earlier this year on January 20th.

Related readings

In their analysis, Crypto analyst Burakkemeci mentioned the encrypted Bullbear Market Cycle Indicator, saying it was flashing Early signs A potential bullish trend of reversal. Analysts pointed out:

As Bitcoin surged beyond $10,000, the indicator began flashing bull signals again for the first time in weeks. The signal is still weak (coefficient: 0.029), but the mere appearance of a positive shift is encouraging.

To explain, the encrypted Bullbear Market Cycle Indicator is a chain-on-chain tool that tracks long-term and short-term market sentiment by comparing price momentum with investor behavior trends. Identify bull and bear cycle shifts using two key components: the 30-day and 365-day moving average (MA).

Importantly, analysts pointed out that the 30-day Bullbear MA began to rise. If this metric exceeds the 365-day MA, the historical trend suggests that Bitcoin can enter a phase of parabolic price growth.

Recent macroeconomic developments could further support Bitcoin’s bullish narrative. Julien Bittel, head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor, recently highlighted the relationship between Global M2 Money Supply and BTC prices.

Bittel shared a chart that overlays the price of the M2 money supply and BTC, adjusted with a 12-week delay. The data reveals a sharp increase in global liquidity since early 2025, meaning that BTC can follow this trend and continue to increase in the coming months.

There are still warning signs in BTC

Despite recent strength, not all signals are bullish. Analysts should note that the current gathering was Along By making positive profits, you increase the chances of local top-forming.

Related readings

Furthermore, recent analysis show The momentum of that demand for BTC has not yet emerged from negative territory. Analysts noted that such market behavior is largely prevalent during the distribution phase of the cycle or the macro-level integration period.

However, Bitcoin’s Probabilistic Relative Strength Index (RSI) has begun Reflect A new bullish momentum. At the time of press, BTC traded at $103,444, an increase of 4% over the past 24 hours.

Featured images created with cryptoquant, x and tradingview.com charts, ofplash, ofsprash, and charts

A widely followed crypto analyst says several indicators are suddenly flashing bullish for Bitcoin (BTC).

In a new video update, crypto strategist Jason Pizzino tells his 350,000 YouTube subscribers that Bitcoin may be gearing up for an explosive move to the upside after breaking out into the mid-$90,000 range.

“Bitcoin broke March’s monthly high, which canceled the macro bearish signal from the top, the signal which essentially called the top in December and January, the signal that called the top from March 2024 that led to a 30%-plus correction. Same sort of deal here, and this time on the macro it has hit a higher price, now canceling those three red signals down.”

Next up, he says the weakness of the US dollar as measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY) indicates Bitcoin may trend higher based on historic precedent.

The US Dollar Index is a benchmark of the value of the US dollar compared to a basket of other widely traded global currencies. A DXY on an uptrend indicates a strengthening US dollar, while a downtrending DXY indicates a weakening US dollar.

“On top of this, the US dollar has closed at its lowest price in around 37 months. This is on the weekly chart, and the monthly is coming up in just three days time. Typically, when this happens, we see another big move to the upside from BTC. So this, on top of what we’ve already seen with the Bitcoin price and the signals getting canceled on the bearish charts, is looking likely that we’ve got further upside to go here for BTC.”

Lastly, he says that another factor that suggests Bitcoin’s price will rise is the fall in Tether (USDT) dominance – the ratio of USDT’s market cap relative to the rest of the crypto assets.

“In addition to that, the USDT dominance is also breaking down, breaking past key levels that we’ve been following, however, still holding above the elusive 50% level.”

Bitcoin is trading for $95,252 at time of writing, up 2.5% in the last 24 hours.

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Crypto Analyst Cuntonese Cat (@cantonmeow) describes the weekly Dogecoin/USD chart as technical beauty, as multiple metrics lined up at once. The latest chart shared by X stands out for several key features, including long-term diagonal trendlines, simple moving averages (SMA) convergence for 100 and 200 weeks, and a notable, rapid cloud setup. “I’ve never seen anything more beautiful in a while,” the analyst points out.

Why Dogecoin looks “beautiful” and powerful

The dominant downward diagonal trend line drawn from the peak of approximately $0.70 from the Dogecoin’s historic 2021 peak sets the tone of the chart’s structure. Since Dogecoin’s meteor rise and subsequent decline in 2021, weekly candles have consistently reacted to this diagonal, which served as a barrier to bullish progress and sometimes as a place for price consolidation.

Related readings

Last November, Doge surpassed the trend line. However, over the past four weeks, Dogecoin has once again drifted downwards, close to the line defining this trend. Dogecoin’s current revisit to the trendline represents a retest of a previous breakout. Successful defense at this level confirms retest, a scenario considered very bullish from a testing standpoint.

Another focus is the relationship between the 100-week simple moving average (SMA) and the 200-week SMA. The chart shared by Cantonese Cats shows 100-week SMAs in blue and 200-week SMAs in black. The 100-week SMA is currently hovering at $0.1456, while the 200-week SMA is $0.1412.

In particular, the recent crossing of 100-week SMAs on 200-week SMAs has formed a bullish “golden cross” that is generally interpreted as a strong positive signal of price momentum from a technical analysis perspective.

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The chart also incorporates a one-joint cloud, further enhancing convergence. A weekly one-sided setup (using parameters 9, 26, 52, 26) shows the weekly convergence with SMA at around $0.14. Now, Dogecoin’s prices are nearing its cloud cap and remained above its cloud limit.

If the price keeps close to above the cloud, it strengthens the case for bullish continuance. In particular, the future outlook for the cloud is also bullish. If the buyer maintains a conviction, a span (projection forward) of around $0.24 to $0.28 suggests around $0.24 to $0.28.

Cantonese cats call this fork “beautiful” because of the overlapping importance of these four indicators. If DogeCoin exceeds $0.145 above its key support level due to consecutive weekly closures, the chances of a sustained upward trend could rise considerably.

At the time of pressing, Doge traded for $0.17417.

Featured images created with dall.e, charts on tradingview.com

Analyst and trader Kevin Svenson is leaning bullish on Bitcoin (BTC) as the flagship crypto asset hovers below the $100,000 price.

In a new video, Svenson tells his 82,400 YouTube subscribers that the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, which he considers “one of the most reliable signals for bullish pivots in Bitcoin land,” is suggesting a move to the upside for the flagship crypto asset.

The RSI is a momentum indicator that oscillates between 0 to 100 and is used to determine overbought or oversold levels.

“And now we are seeing, if you look closely, the weekly RSI is starting to peak above the downtrend line…

If we do get a close above this resistance line, well it may indicate a huge leg up for Bitcoin is underway.

Every single major uptrend for Bitcoin that we’ve had since the beginning of 2023 was marked by a weekly RSI breakout every single time. If we do in fact close with a weekly RSI breakout, I’m going to become very bullish on Bitcoin in the short, medium and long term.”

Svenson says that if the RSI indicator successfully breaks out above the resistance line on Bitcoin’s weekly time frame, the flagship crypto could rally by up to 36% from the current level.

“So in between $124,000 – $134,000 is the target range for me on this parabolic trend…

I do expect that after we get this next major punch, this next major parabolic advance to $124,000 or maybe $134,000, there will be some sort of correction that comes alongside that where the market would then settle up and then punch up into the end of the year for a much higher target.”

Bitcoin is trading at $98,797 at time of writing.

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