Crypto markets ended last week on a high note with total capitalization topping $4 trillion again, but momentum waned over the weekend.

Stock markets in the US reached record highs last week as markets fully priced in a 0.25% rate cut this week. However, the job market continued to signal weakness with a sharp jump in weekly unemployment claims.

On Wednesday, the Fed will cut rates for the first time in 2025 and ‘blame’ a weak labor market, said the Kobeissi Letter.

Economic Events September 15 to 19

The August retail sales report is due on Tuesday, which is a gauge of consumption and broader economic sentiment.

The main event of the week is the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, which is likely to see the central bank cut rates for the first time since December 2024. CME futures markets project a 96.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 3.6% chance of a larger 50 basis point cut.

The Fed has been clear recently that it is more focused on the weakening labor market than on any persistent inflation risks.

“Amid US macro uncertainty and gold’s record rally, crypto assets are demonstrating resilience and long-term hedging properties against inflation,” said Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research.

“With aggressive fiscal policies and expected Fed easing likely to extend the crypto cycle into 2026, both assets stand to benefit from sustained macroeconomic pressures. Mounting stagflation concerns may further support this dynamic, reinforcing the case for alternative stores of value as the Fed weighs this week’s interest rate decision.”

Key Events This Week:

1. August Retail Sales data – Tuesday

2. Fed Interest Rate Decision – Wednesday

3. FOMC Press Conference – Wednesday

4. Fed Dot-Plot Projections – Wednesday

5. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index – Thursday

6. Initial Jobless Claims data – Thursday…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 14, 2025

“We have concerns that the September 17 Fed meeting, which delivers a 25bp cut, could turn into a ‘Sell the News’ event as investors pull back to consider macro data,” wrote JPMorgan Global Head of Market Intelligence Andrew Tyler in a note.

Thursday will see the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and initial jobless claims data, but neither is likely to impact markets.

Crypto Market Outlook

With the Fed rate cut largely priced in, markets are already starting to react with the typical Monday decline as total capitalization shrinks by 1% to $4.13 trillion.

Bitcoin topped $116,000 twice over the past 24 hours but faced resistance there before sliding back to $115,000. The asset recovered in early trading on Monday morning in Asia to return to $116,000.

Ethereum topped $4,700 before pulling back slightly over the weekend to trade at $4,630 at the time of writing as it remains rangebound.

The altcoins were mostly red with larger losses for XRP, Solana, Cardano, and Chainlink.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Crypto Exchange Bitmex, offloaded more than $13 million in Crypto Holdings, including Ether (eth)Dan

and Pepe.

Data from Arkham Intelligence shows that Hayes has sold millions of these cryptocurrencies and moved to accumulate USDC, with Stablecoin accounting for more than 80% of the $27.9 million address associated with him.

The address sold for 2,373 ETH, worth $832 million, with 7.76 million ENAs for $462 million, and 38.8 billion Pepe for $414,700. In X’s post, he confirmed he was behind the address, pointing to a bearish scenario in the crypto space.

Hayes suggested that the market will be hit by the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Combined with a weaker than expected US employment report, he argued that no major economy is expanding credit quickly enough to boost nominal GDP. Against this background, he predicted that Bitcoin could “test $100k” and that Ether would revisit $3,000.

The crypto market, measured by the Coindesk 20 (CD20) index, has lost more than 7.5% of its value in the past week as hopes for interest rate reductions have faded. Bitcoin surpasses the wider market by a 3.9% drop, and is currently at $113,500.

Similarly, ether fell 6.5% over the same period and is currently trading at $3,500. Hopes for rate cuts blew on Friday, but they spiked later in the session after the labour market showed signs of weakness. Polymarket Traders is currently heavier with a 70% chance of interest rate reductions in September.

And the market is falling as tensions between the US and Russia escalate. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Trump ordered two nuclear submarines to move to “the right area” after threatening the US to agree to the ultimate ceasefire in Moscow.

Despite the sale, Hayes may remain bullish. In a post last month, he said the year-end target for Bitcoin prices was $250,000 and the ether rose to $10,000.

US stock markets surged last week, with major indexes approaching all-time highs on the easing of tensions in the Middle East and rising hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut later this year.

Crypto markets were a little slower to react, remaining mostly flat over the past week and into the weekend.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, showed that price increases accelerated in May, raising inflation concerns. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that he expects to see a pickup in inflation this summer, but reiterated his “wait and see” approach.

On Sunday, President Trump commented on the July 9 deadline for the 90-day tariff pause, stating, “I don’t think I need to extend it, but could.”

Economic Events June 30 to July 4

June’s ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) is due on Tuesday. This report shows business conditions in the manufacturing sector and serves as a significant leading indicator of overall economic conditions.

There are also job openings data due on Tuesday, which could reflect conditions in the labor market.

Wednesday and Thursday will see more labor market reports, with nonfarm payrolls and unemployment figures released. These reports represent the number of new jobs created during the previous month, along with the percentage of people actively seeking employment.

They are significant economic indicators, as the shift in the number of jobs is strongly associated with overall economic health.

June’s ISM Services PMI, due on Thursday, will reflect business conditions in the services sector and is another leading economic indicator.

Traditional markets are closed on Friday for the July 4 celebrations as we enter the second half of the year.

Crypto Market Outlook

Digital asset markets remained flat over the weekend but gained during early Asian trading on Monday morning to reach $3.46 trillion in total capitalization.

Bitcoin has reached a two-week high, tapping $108,750 in early trading on Monday, but it faced resistance there yet again and fell back to $108,500 at the time of writing. The assed has struggled at this level at least five times over the past week where it has been rejected.

Ethereum is doing a little better, having reached its support-turned-resistance level of $2,500 on Monday morning after a 2.8% gain.

The altcoins were mostly in the green with minor gains, but Hyperliquid (HYPE) was leading the pack, adding 7.5% on the day to top $40.

In recent years, Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) have completely transformed how we think about ownership in the digital world. These tokens have become a groundbreaking force in digital assets, reshaping our understanding of owning something in this digital age.

Utilizing blockchain technology, NFTs offer a secure, transparent, and unchangeable method for authenticating and trading digital items like art, music, videos, and collectibles. This exciting development is closely tied to the larger cryptocurrency landscape, where Bitcoin to US Dollar (BTC/USD) exchange rates play a crucial role in defining the value and liquidity of digital assets. Each NFT is a unique digital identifier certifying ownership and authenticity, making it irreplaceable and distinct from other tokens. This uniqueness and the blockchain’s decentralized ledger ensure verifiable ownership protected against unauthorized duplication or theft.

Understanding NFTs

NFTs, or non-fungible tokens, are one-of-a-kind cryptographic tokens that signify ownership of a particular digital asset or collectible. Unlike cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ether, which can be exchanged for one another, NFTs are unique and can’t be divided or swapped on a one-to-one basis. This unique quality creates a sense of scarcity, enhancing the value of the assets represented as NFTs.

NFTs in Art

The rise of NFTs has significantly transformed the traditional art market, giving artists the power to tokenize their creations and connect directly with a global audience. By minting their work as NFTs, artists enable collectors to buy and own digital versions of their art. This shift towards decentralization has opened exciting new avenues for artists to earn money and expand their reach. Moreover, NFTs have redefined what it means to own art, as blockchain technology offers a secure and unchangeable ownership record, which helps minimize the chances of art fraud and forgery. This level of transparency and traceability has fostered trust and authenticity in the NFT art scene, drawing in both seasoned collectors and newcomers eager to explore this dynamic landscape.

NFTs in Collectibles

Beyond the art world, NFTs have also made significant waves in the collectibles market by digitizing a wide range of assets such as sports memorabilia, trading cards, virtual items, and rare in-game assets. This digital transformation allows collectors to purchase and trade NFT collectibles on numerous online platforms, creating a vibrant and accessible marketplace for rare and one-of-a-kind items that were previously difficult to verify or exchange securely. The scarcity and verifiable ownership provided by NFTs add a crucial layer of authenticity and trust to the collectibles market, ensuring that each item is unique and cannot be duplicated or counterfeited.

Moreover, integrating NFTs with blockchain technology has enabled new forms of engagement and monetization for collectors and creators alike. For example, some platforms allow collectors to earn royalties or participate in exclusive events tied to their NFT ownership. This has expanded the appeal of collectibles beyond traditional enthusiasts to a broader audience interested in digital assets and investment opportunities.

In parallel with the rise of NFTs, the cryptocurrency market continues to grow, making it easier than ever to buy bitcoin instantly and use it as a gateway to participate in the digital economy. Many platforms now offer seamless options to buy bitcoin instantly, providing users with quick access to the funds needed to invest in NFTs and other blockchain-based assets. This ease of access helps fuel the expanding ecosystem of digital collectibles and cryptocurrencies, further bridging the gap between traditional collectors and the emerging world of digital ownership.

Benefits and Challenges

While NFTs offer numerous benefits for artists, collectors, and the market, they also come with their fair share of challenges. One of the main criticisms of NFTs is their environmental impact, as the minting and trading of NFTs consume significant amounts of energy. Additionally, the volatility of the NFT market can pose risks for creators and investors.

Future Outlook of NFTs

Looking ahead, the future of NFTs in the art and collectibles markets appears highly promising. According to recent industry reports, the global NFT market size was valued at approximately $41 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 35% through 2030. With continued innovation and adoption, NFTs have the potential to democratize access to art and collectibles by breaking down traditional barriers such as geographic location, high entry costs, and gatekeeping by established institutions.

This expanding market empowers artists to monetize their work more effectively, with data showing that over 70% of NFT artists have reported increased earnings and wider exposure since entering the space. Additionally, NFTs create new avenues for collectors to discover, purchase, and own unique digital and physical assets securely. Active NFT wallets worldwide have surged to over 35 million since mid-2025, reflecting growing enthusiasm and participation from seasoned collectors and newcomers.

In conclusion, the impact of NFTs on art and collectibles markets cannot be understated. By introducing a new form of digital ownership, NFTs have transformed how we buy, sell, and appreciate art and collectibles. While challenges remain, the opportunities presented by NFTs are vast and exciting, signalling a new era of innovation and creativity in the digital economy.

The FTX Recovery Trust will begin distributing over $5 billion in cash and stablecoins to creditors starting on Friday, with funds expected to land in accounts within the next three business days via BitGo and Kraken.

And there’s a chance this wave of repayments will help lift the crypto market, analysts at Coinbase wrote in a report on Friday.

It’s the second major round of repayments following the exchange’s collapse. The first, which began on Feb. 18, returned roughly $7 billion to creditors with claims under $50,000. That did little to lift broader crypto markets at the time, which remained under pressure from macro headwinds.

This latest wave of distributions comes as investor sentiment has shifted, the analysts said. Payments will arrive in stablecoins, offering recipients immediate on-chain liquidity, instead of cash and crypto. That could influence whether the funds are reinvested.

There’s also a broader sense of optimism in crypto markets, thanks in part to a rally in major assets and increased political clarity around regulation. Institutional players, in particular, may feel more comfortable acting on incoming funds, especially as Congress moves closer to passing legislation that would define the roles of U.S. regulators overseeing digital assets.

Stock markets notched solid gains last week while crypto markets lost a bit of ground and cooled slightly.

The weaker-than-expected readings on CPI and inflation expectations keep markets buoyed, while the Trump administration’s Middle East deals were a boon for the AI sector.

Additionally, US Treasury yields are surging again. “Trade deals, recession worries, lower inflation, and slowing GDP all can’t get lower yields,” said the Kobeissi Letter, which added, “Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell remains adamant on not cutting rates.”

Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating on Friday was also good news for store-of-value assets such as Bitcoin and gold.

Economic Events May 19 to 23

There may be some market reaction to the Moody’s downgrade on Monday, which could set the stage for further volatility this week.

May’s S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI (purchasing manager’s index) preliminary readings are due on Thursday. These leading economic indicators gauge activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, which reflect business and consumer sentiment.

Most official economic data has suggested that the US economy is holding up reasonably well. However, they have been more backward-looking and don’t yet properly capture the aftermath of President Trump’s announcement of widespread tariffs in early April. PMIs may provide a more accurate picture of the real impact.

There are also some home sales reports coming this week, which shed light on the US housing market but have virtually no impact on crypto asset markets.

Key Events This Week:

1. Markets React to Moody’s Downgrade – Monday

2. US Crude Oil Inventory data – Wednesday

3. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data – Thursday

4. April Existing Home Sales data – Thursday

5. April New Home Sales data – Friday

6. Total of 14 Fed speaker…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 18, 2025

‘Soft data’, such as activity and confidence surveys, “paint a potentially grimmer picture, particularly in the US where consumer and business confidence are still deteriorating,” said Citigroup analysts, according to the WSJ.

In Asia, markets will watch for progress in trade talks between the US and regional players in addition to key data from China and a central bank rate announcement.

Crypto Market Outlook

Crypto markets started the new week solidly with Bitcoin closing its highest-ever daily and weekly candles at just below $106,500.

However, the asset has started to cool during Monday morning trading in Asia, dropping back below $103,000 following its multi-month high.

“As the US Dollar weakens and uncertainty rises, Bitcoin and Gold are thriving,” said Kobeissi.

Ethereum has weakened significantly, falling almost 3% on the day back beneath the $2,400 level following a solid week.

The altcoins were a mixed bag, with gains for Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and Litecoin, while Tron, Leo, and wrapped ETH derivatives lost ground.