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Dogecoin begins the new trading week in an unusually precarious spot on its higher‑time‑frame chart: technically triumphant, yet visibly stretched. A cluster of weekly studies shared by pseudonymous market technician Cantonese Cat shows the meme‑coin pressing into resistance after an abrupt two‑week rally that added roughly 80 percent from the June lows. The analyst cautions that the move, though structurally bullish, may require a brief pullback to consolidate before further gains.

Dogecoin Overextended?

On the logarithmic Fibonacci retracement drawn across the 2024–25 range, last week’s candle managed to close marginally above the 0.618 level at $0.262 — a zone that has capped every breakout attempt since January. The close was technically significant: in classical market geometry, recapturing the 61.8 percent retrace often signals a transition from recovery to trend expansion.

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“It broke above the 0.618 log fib which can use a bullish back‑test,” Cantonese Cat observed, adding that a return to that same area “would flush back down to back‑test” the double‑bottom that formed around $0.15 earlier in the quarter.

The Bollinger‑Band panel underscores the risk of near‑term mean‑reversion. Dogecoin’s weekly close at $0.267 is the first in eleven months to settle outside the upper band, which currently sits near $0.262. Such closes are rare on a high‑time‑frame chart and are typically followed by at least one candle that re‑enters the bands.

“It’s above the Bollinger band,” the analyst notes. Historically, Dogecoin has struggled to maintain altitude when that spread becomes extreme, often retreating to the middle band — now near $0.19 — or, in stronger cycles, to the upper band itself on the subsequent week.

The Ichimoku snapshot tells a similar story of progress meeting inertia. Price has vaulted both the conversion line (Tenkan‑sen) and the baseline (Kijun‑sen), confirming bullish momentum on those metrics, but remains pinned beneath the underside of the weekly cloud. The Senkō Span B that defines that lower cloud boundary sits around $0.28–$0.29, almost exactly where Dogecoin stalled on the final trading day of last week.

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Cantonese Cat labels that area “Ichimoku cloud resistance” and warns that until a decisive close pierces the cloud, the level should be treated as supply. A brief dip, therefore, would allow the Kijun‑sen (roughly $0.23) and the 0.618 Fibonacci level to compress into a confluence that could provide the next higher low.

Supporting that idea is the supply‑demand band highlighted in grey on the fourth chart. It spans approximately $0.24 to $0.25 and corresponds to the base of February’s breakdown range. In chart‑pattern terms, the area acts as the neckline of the double‑bottom Cantonese Cat references.

A retracement into that former resistance‑turned‑support could satisfy both the Fibonacci back‑test requirement and the Bollinger re‑entry, while leaving the broader reversal structure intact. The analyst sketches exactly that path on the chart: a pullback into the grey zone, followed by a renewed advance toward the mid‑$0.30s.

Importantly, none of these observations undermine the longer‑term shift in market structure. The double‑bottom around $0.15 resolved higher in July with a weekly candle that engulfed eleven weeks of prior supply, signalling a change of control from sellers to buyers. The most recent candles, though smaller, have held every gain from that breakout. As the analyst summarizes: “Overall, these are very bullish developments, even if it dips down early this week to reset some technicals.”

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.277.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Features writer

Olga Primakova

Features writer

Olga Primakova

About Author

Olga started writing about cryptocurrency and finance in 2021.

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Fact Checked by

Elena Bozhkova

Features Lead

Elena Bozhkova

About Author

Elena is the Features Lead at Cryptonews.com. With a Master’s degree in science journalism from City University, London, she is passionate about exploring complex topics in the world of technology.

Last updated: 

July 14, 2025

Key Takeaways:

• PENGU surged over 300% in June, pushing its market cap to $1.8 billion and entering the top 10 meme coins.
• Strong community backing and NFT roots are fueling its rise, with support from major platforms like Revolut and Binance US.
• An ETF application by Canary adds bullish momentum, but analysts warn that hype-driven rallies can lead to sharp corrections.

Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) surged by over 300% by the end of June, becoming one of the most talked-about meme coins in recent weeks.

Throughout most of June, PENGU traded in a tight range around $0.001. It then jumped to $0.014 in just a few days, followed by a short consolidation near $0.015. The token later climbed to over $0.020 and crossed the $0.030 mark on July 13.

Can PENGU Hit $1 This Summer?

Following the rally, PENGU climbed to the sixth spot among meme coins by market cap, reaching $1.8 billion as of July 14. It surpassed both SPX900 (SPX) and Fartcoin (FARTCOIN).

If PENGU reaches $2 billion, it could overtake Bonk (BONK) — currently the largest meme coin on Solana (SOL). That would also make Pudgy Penguins the first top meme coin directly tied to an NFT collection.

As some in the crypto community have pointed out, for Pudgy Penguins to reach a $1 price, its market cap would need to exceed $60 billion. With the current valuation at $1.8 billion, that’s still a long way off. Though some believe it’s not entirely out of reach.

Initial analyst targets included $0.026, followed by a correction to the $0.020 zone before a fresh leg up. Instead, the price broke through $0.030 without hesitation. Now, all eyes are on the $0.040 resistance.

Much depends on whether the token can hold above $0.025–$0.030. If buyers defend this level, some analysts see potential for a $5 billion market cap.

What’s Fueling the Bullish Momentum?

One key factor driving PENGU’s price is its chart structure. After a strong launch in December 2024, the token entered an accumulation phase between February and April. It tested the $0.015 level in May before pulling back slightly.

Of course, technical indicators alone aren’t enough. Without continued development from the team, the coin could’ve just kept falling. But instead, at the end of June, Pudgy Penguins became available for trading in the Revolut app — one of the largest fintech platforms in Europe.

Equally important is community strength. Meme coins thrive on engagement, and PENGU has plenty. Its NFT origins gave it a loyal base, visible on X (formerly Twitter) through penguin avatars used by numerous influencers.

The penguin hype has gone viral. Other major crypto projects like Coinbase, Polkadot, and Raydium have embraced the penguin theme in their own posts.

Even Binance US joined the fun, adding to the cultural momentum around PENGU.

ETF Hype Adds Fuel, but Risks Remain

One of the main catalysts behind PENGU’s recent price surge was the announcement of a spot ETF application filed by asset management firm Canary. The proposal was officially acknowledged by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and is now under review. While this doesn’t guarantee approval, the move significantly boosted sentiment around the token.

The news also positioned PENGU as more than just another meme coin — it hinted at potential institutional recognition. However, this kind of momentum often comes with risks. Some traders warn that the current rally could be driven more by speculation than fundamentals, especially given how meme coins tend to react strongly to headlines.

There’s also the risk of a “sell-the-news” dip if ETF-related expectations don’t materialize quickly. Still, many analysts see long-term growth potential for Pudgy Penguins, especially if the project continues to innovate and expand beyond its NFT roots.