holds – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Tue, 09 Sep 2025 03:07:59 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.7 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 holds – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 Bitcoin Stash Grows: Metaplanet Now Holds 20,136 BTC After $15M Buy https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-stash-grows-metaplanet-now-holds-20136-btc-after-15m-buy/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-stash-grows-metaplanet-now-holds-20136-btc-after-15m-buy/#respond Tue, 09 Sep 2025 03:07:58 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-stash-grows-metaplanet-now-holds-20136-btc-after-15m-buy/

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Metaplanet Inc. moved again into the Bitcoin zone as part of its treasury plan, buying 136 Bitcoin for about $15.2 million at an average price of $111,783 per coin.

According to the company, that brings its total holdings to 20,136 coins. The purchase keeps Metaplanet among the larger corporate holders of the crypto.

Metaplanet Expands Bitcoin Stack

The company reported the fresh buy on Monday. Based on reports, Metaplanet now sits as the sixth-largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.

At the time of the purchase, Bitcoin traded around $111,580, putting the new units close to current market levels. The move underscores how some firms are turning parts of their balance sheets into crypto exposure rather than sticking only to their core businesses.

Market Reaction Was Cool

Shares of Metaplanet did not climb after the disclosure. They fell 2.3% in Tokyo trade on Monday and were trading near a four-month low, extending nearly a 20% rout from the prior week.

Reports show the stock slide has tracked a drop in Bitcoin’s price after profit-taking followed August’s record highs. Investors appear skittish when a company’s share price is tied tightly to a volatile asset.

Investors Weigh ETFs Versus Direct Exposure

Part of the pushback comes from alternatives. Exchange-traded funds now give retail and institutional investors direct bitcoin exposure without owning a company whose core business may not reflect the crypto bet.

Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, remains the biggest corporate holder with 636,505 coins. Strategy logged nearly a 15% loss in August as Bitcoin pulled back, showing how a firm’s valuation can swing with crypto prices.

Questions have been raised about whether holding Bitcoin on a company balance sheet still offers the same appeal it once did.

BTCUSD now trading at $112,018. Chart: TradingView

Valuation And Volatility Concerns Persist

Metaplanet’s market value — around $5 billion, based on recent trading — has drawn scrutiny because it exceeds the current market value of the bitcoin on its books.

Critics warn that tying a company’s shares to Bitcoin can make the stock more vulnerable to crypto’s swings. New players, including Metaplanet and Gamestop, tried to copy the strategy and have met mixed results so far.

Market Crowding Could Limit Future Gains

Analysts also point to crowding: many companies chasing the same story could blunt future upside for treasury-play stocks if fresh buyers stop showing up.

Strategy achieved big gains after late-2023 purchases, funded in part through large share and debt issuances. That path may be harder to repeat now that more investment routes exist.

For now, Metaplanet keeps adding to its bitcoin pile while its shares remain under pressure. Reports suggest the next moves by both Bitcoin and markets will decide whether that bet looks smart or risky in hindsight.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

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BitMine Now Holds $9B in Crypto Treasury, Fuels 1,000% Surge in WLD-Linked Stock https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitmine-now-holds-9b-in-crypto-treasury-fuels-1000-surge-in-wld-linked-stock/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitmine-now-holds-9b-in-crypto-treasury-fuels-1000-surge-in-wld-linked-stock/#respond Mon, 08 Sep 2025 14:59:07 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitmine-now-holds-9b-in-crypto-treasury-fuels-1000-surge-in-wld-linked-stock/

BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) has announced its cryptocurrency holdings now near $9 billion, which the firm says makes it the second-largest crypto treasury firm in the world behind Strategy (MSTR), which holds 638,460 BTC worth over $71 billion.

It also fueled a 1,000% surge in a stock looking to accumulate WLD.

The company according to a press release, holds 2.069 million ETH worth about $8.9 billion at current prices, in addition to 192 BTC and $266 million in unencumbered cash.

That brings the company’s total crypto and cash holdings to more than $9.2 billion, it said.

BMNR pivoted to an ETH treasury strategy in June and aims to accumulate 5% of the total supply of ether. It’s currently the largest ether treasury firm, with SharpLink Gaming (SBET) coming in second with a $3.6 billion ETH treasury according to StrategicETHReserve.

BitMine also announced a $20 million investment in Eightco Holdings (OCTO), a move it calls the first in its “Moonshot” investment strategy to “back bold ideas that strengthen Ethereum’s vast ecosystem.”

Eightco plans to hold worldcoin as its primary treasury asset. The funding comes as part of its $270 million raise via a private investment in public equity (PIPE). OCTO shares are up more than 1,000% in pre-market trading.

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Bitcoin holds important support within Gravestone doji – balances $120,000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-holds-important-support-within-gravestone-doji-balances-120000/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-holds-important-support-within-gravestone-doji-balances-120000/#respond Sun, 07 Sep 2025 09:38:51 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-holds-important-support-within-gravestone-doji-balances-120000/

In him latest In a daily technical outlook, Cryptowzrd emphasized that Bitcoin has closed the day with its tombstone doji, and is above a critical level. Analysis shows that to maintain momentum and push prices up to $120,000, you need a more bullish candle resistanceespecially as the market is fighting against the underlying pressures that are underway.

Despite the weak NFP print, fundamentals support Bitcoin

Cryptowzrd emphasized that Bitcoin’s daily candles are closed for indecisiveness and show uncertainty as the market evaluates its next move. Despite this indecisiveness, BTC has surpassed the key level of $110,500, which continues to function as a strong support zone. This level remains important in determining whether you are bullish or not. Momentum It can be maintained in the short term.

Related readings

Analysts noted that Bitcoin remains at a bullish edge in the face of lower than expected NFP prints caused by the basic commentary. This development suggests a wider market Feelings It still supports BTC, and its technical strength is strengthened by macroeconomic factors.

From a weekly standpoint, traditional markets have been shut down with bullish memos, further supporting the potential benefits of Bitcoin. However, to solidify confidence in a rally heading towards a $120,000 resistance level, you need a series of consecutive bullish daily candles. Without this confirmation, the market remains a retention pattern, leaving room for volatility and short-term swings.

Bitcoin
Source: x cryptowrzd chart

On the downside, he warned that if Bitcoin falls below $110,500 by the middle of the week, it could open the door deeper Correctionpotentially testing a support zone of $100,000. Such movements will shift and increase market dynamics Sales pressure It creates strategic opportunities for traders to position for short-term downside plays.

Over the weekend, Cryptowzrd will ensure that your current position is above $110,500, while closely monitoring low frame charts to identify viable scalp opportunities.

Intrinsic volatility driven by NFP and market foundations

Conclusion of his analysis, analysts highlighted that BTC’s intraday charts are volatile and affected by recent basic commentary and lower NFP prints than expected. This volatility reflects market uncertainty as traders weigh both technical and macroeconomic factors.

Related readings

He said that a critical move above $113,200 shows stronger bullish momentum and potentially pushing. Bitcoin It will help you secure your current position higher. Such a breakout indicates that buyers are regaining control of the market.

Meanwhile, a drop below $110,400 can open the door to gain additional drawbacks. For now, Analyst We will be patiently waiting for the market to form a more mature trade setup before taking the next practical position.

Bitcoin
BTC trading for $110,823 on 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on tradingView.com

Getty Images Featured Images, Charts on tradingView.com

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Asia Morning Briefing: Bitcoin Holds Steady as Traders Turn to Ethereum for September Upside https://earlybirdsinvest.com/asia-morning-briefing-bitcoin-holds-steady-as-traders-turn-to-ethereum-for-september-upside/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/asia-morning-briefing-bitcoin-holds-steady-as-traders-turn-to-ethereum-for-september-upside/#respond Thu, 04 Sep 2025 01:54:41 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/asia-morning-briefing-bitcoin-holds-steady-as-traders-turn-to-ethereum-for-september-upside/

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin is stuck in a holding pattern near $112,000, according to CoinDesk market data, but the bigger story onchain might be the divide emerging between how investors treat BTC and ETH heading into September. BTC is acting more like a macro hedge, while ETH is being positioned as the real vehicle for upside.

That split reflects a mix of policy uncertainty and shifting trader flows. In a recent note, QCP Capital wrote that doubts about the Fed’s independence are keeping term premiums elevated, a setup that weakens the dollar and supports hedges like BTC and gold.

But options desks and prediction markets show momentum gathering in ETH instead, where traders see the most potential for a breakout.

Flowdesk reported muted implied volatility in BTC despite pullbacks, suggesting positioning rather than speculative bets. Skew remains negative, meaning puts are expensive, but that creates relative value in call structures. ETH risk reversals, meanwhile, have recovered from their recent selloff, indicating renewed demand for upside exposure.

SOL options also saw increased activity, with flows skewed to the upside on growing sentiment around its ecosystem and corporate Digital Asset Treasury initiatives. Spot activity rotated into ETH beta names like AAVE and AERO, as well as SOL betas like RAY and DRIFT, showing breadth widening beyond majors.

Prediction markets back this rotation theme. Polymarket sentiment reinforces the rotation. Traders expect BTC to stay capped near $120k, while ETH is given a strong chance of breaking $5,000 — a view consistent with its 20% monthly rally and recovering risk reversals.

Traders are increasingly treating BTC as a steady macro hedge, while ETH is emerging as the market’s high-conviction upside play into September.

Europe-based market maker Flowdesk wrote in a recent Telegram update that activity on the desk remains high, with clients broadly positioned for upside even as macro risks linger and seasonal volatility tends to pick up.

The macro backdrop sets the hedge case, trading flows show how positioning is shifting, and prediction markets validate it with real-money bets. Together, they sketch a market where BTC anchors as a governance and inflation hedge, ETH leads on performance, and SOL builds momentum as breadth improves.

Market Movements

BTC: Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase around the $110K–112K range, marked by waning short‑term volatility.

ETH: ETH is trading near $4400. Its rally is being fuelled by surging institutional interest, especially via ETF inflows, and anticipation surrounding the upcoming Fusaka network upgrade. Price action is supported by strong structural demand as ETH continues to solidify its role in DeFi and smart contracts.

Gold: Gold is trading around record highs propelled by expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut (markets now price in about a 92% chance), weakening confidence in Fed independence, and increased demand from ETFs and central banks acting as conviction buyers.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific stocks climbed Thursday, led by a 0.57% gain in Japan’s Nikkei 225, as Wall Street’s tech rally lifted sentiment despite lingering economic worries.

S&P 500: U.S. stocks rose Wednesday as Alphabet gained after avoiding a breakup in an antitrust ruling and investors boosted September Fed rate-cut bets despite fresh labor market concerns.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

  • U.S. CFTC Gives Go-Ahead For Polymarket’s New Exchange, QCX (CoinDesk)
  • Pump.fun’s New Fee Model Hands Out $2M to Creators in First 24 Hours (Decrypt)
  • AI Agents Will Become Biggest Stablecoin User, Says Novogratz (Bloomberg)

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Stellar Lumens Holds Firm as Network Growth Set Stage for Breakout https://earlybirdsinvest.com/stellar-lumens-holds-firm-as-network-growth-set-stage-for-breakout/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/stellar-lumens-holds-firm-as-network-growth-set-stage-for-breakout/#respond Sat, 16 Aug 2025 10:07:57 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/stellar-lumens-holds-firm-as-network-growth-set-stage-for-breakout/

Stellar lumens (XLM) traded in a tight range over the past 24 hours, holding between $0.42 and $0.43 from Aug. 14 at 15:00 UTC through Aug. 15 at 14:00 UTC.

The token saw measured gains before late-session profit-taking pushed prices 1% lower to $0.43 in the final hour of trade. CoinDesk Data’s technical analysis model suggests XLM is approaching a key resistance level at $0.50, with a breakout potentially targeting $0.60–$0.77, backed by strengthening network fundamentals and growing institutional participation.

On-chain metrics continue to paint a bullish picture. Stellar’s active enterprise wallets hit an all-time high of 9.69 million, with 5,000–6,000 new institutional addresses added daily.

Total value locked on the network jumped 80% to $150 million, reflecting a surge in corporate adoption. Traders are closely watching the $0.47–$0.50 zone, a potential trigger point for institutional short covering that could fuel the next leg higher.

Despite early pressure pushing XLM down to $0.42 in the first six hours of the session, buyers consistently emerged at that level, signaling strong institutional support.

Overnight, the token staged a steady recovery, retesting $0.43 before consolidating. In the final 60 minutes, heavy selling briefly drove prices back to $0.42, but a swift rebound and lighter volume suggest selling pressure may be easing, leaving room for renewed upside momentum.

XLM/USD (TradingView)

XLM/USD (TradingView)

Corporate Technical Indicators Signal Consolidation Phase
  • Stellar established robust institutional support at $0.42 zone with consistent corporate buyer emergence during early session decline.
  • Cryptocurrency tested resistance near $0.43 during overnight institutional trading before consolidating in upper price range.
  • Trading volume peaked at 71.43 million during initial six-hour decline, indicating significant institutional participation and interest.
  • Technical formation approaches critical resistance at $0.50 level, representing key institutional breakout threshold.
  • Corporate momentum indicators suggest potential advancement toward $0.60-$0.77 institutional price target zones.
  • Diminishing trading volume in final hour signals exhausted institutional selling pressure and market stabilization potential.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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Bitcoin Holds Near $120K, Ether Rallies Towards $4.7K on Trump's Comment, Fed Rate Cut Bets https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-holds-near-120k-ether-rallies-towards-4-7k-on-trumps-comment-fed-rate-cut-bets/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-holds-near-120k-ether-rallies-towards-4-7k-on-trumps-comment-fed-rate-cut-bets/#respond Wed, 13 Aug 2025 09:25:39 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-holds-near-120k-ether-rallies-towards-4-7k-on-trumps-comment-fed-rate-cut-bets/

Crypto markets extended gains on Wednesday as traders digested a mix of political tailwinds, dovish Fed expectations, and ongoing ETF inflows into ether (ETH).

Altcoins added to their rally during late Tuesday U.S. afternoon hours after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested the Federal Reserve should consider a 50 basis point rate cut at its upcoming September meeting.

Ether extended a strong week with gains of nearly 30%, nearing fresh highs that has historically preceded rotations and market frenzy in altcoins and microcap tokens. ETFs tied to the token registered $520 million in positive flows on Tuesday, data shows, on track to reach over $2 billion in weekly flows for the first time.

Bitcoin

remained steady just under $120,000. Solana’s SOL surged 12% to $198, BNB Chain’s BNB (BNB) added 5% to $837, and XRP gained 4% to $3.25. Dogecoin and Cardano rose over 8%, continuing a tendency of following ETH price action.

Traders say recent comments from U.S. President Donald Trump fueled sentiment after ordering regulators to “look into” the possibility of adding crypto — alongside private equity — to U.S. 401(k) retirement plans.

While this prospect is currently exploratory, the possibility of retirement accounts gaining direct exposure to crypto would represent a significant structural shift in demand.

“Ethereum has been the standout, with mainstream equity analysts now joining the FOMO trade,” said Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, in a Telegram message. “BTC implied volatility remains near all-time lows while ETH’s short-dated vol has jumped materially — that’s a sign traders see more upside and near-term action in ETH.”

Implied volatility (IV) is the market’s forecast of how much a crypto’s price might move in the future, based on options prices. If IV is low, traders aren’t expecting big swings and if it’s high, they’re bracing for bigger moves.

Short-dated volatility refers to the implied volatility of options that expire soon, typically within days or weeks. This reflects expectations for near-term price action rather than the long-term outlook.

In this case, BTC’s IV is near record lows, indicating that traders expect its price to remain relatively stable. ETH’s short-dated volatility is jumping, which suggests that traders expect larger near-term price swings — and probably more upside — in ETH compared to BTC.

Rate-cut bets added fuel to the move. Markets now price a high likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering rates before year-end, easing macro headwinds for risk assets.

“Ethereum’s breakout past $4,600 reflects growing confidence in its institutional adoption,” said Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, told CoinDesk.

“Bitcoin holding near $119,000 shows resilient demand. A dovish Fed pivot could further accelerate ETH’s outperformance, especially with ETF speculation and scaling upgrades ahead,” Ruck added.

Meanwhile, FxPro’s Alex Kuptsikevich noted the rally is unusual in that altcoin strength appears to be pulling BTC higher, not the other way around.

“Bitcoin is testing historical highs above $122,000 with the next major target at $135,000-$138,000. Ethereum is now in striking distance of its all-time high above $4,800,” he said.

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Metaplanet Adds 518 BTC, Now Holds $1.85 Billion Worth of Bitcoin https://earlybirdsinvest.com/metaplanet-adds-518-btc-now-holds-1-85-billion-worth-of-bitcoin/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/metaplanet-adds-518-btc-now-holds-1-85-billion-worth-of-bitcoin/#respond Tue, 12 Aug 2025 07:43:55 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/metaplanet-adds-518-btc-now-holds-1-85-billion-worth-of-bitcoin/

Japanese investment firm Metaplanet has acquired an additional 518 BTC for roughly $61.4 million.

This latest transaction brings the company’s total holdings to 18,113 BTC.

Details Of The New Transaction

Metaplanet’s CEO, Simon Gerovich, shared the news in an August 12 X post, revealing that the latest buy was made at an average price of $118,519 per coin. As of August 12, the company’s reserves amounted to 18,113 BTC, acquired for $1.85 billion at an average price of $101,911 per coin.

The outfit tracks a unique performance metric called BTC Yield, which measures Bitcoin holdings relative to fully diluted shares. From July 1 to August 12, it has achieved a Bitcoin yield of 26.5%. This has increased its year-to-date performance to 468.1%.

Since adopting the leading cryptocurrency as a Treasury reserve asset in 2024, Metaplanet has aggressively expanded both its holdings and ambitions. In July alone, it acquired a total of 4245 BTC across four major transactions. The first took place on July 7, when the company purchased 2,205 BTC for approximately $238.7 million, followed by a 797 BTC buy on July 14 worth $93.6 million. Two weeks later, it added another 780 BTC for $92.5 million, capping it with a final acquisition of 463 BTC valued at $54 million.

The firm’s goal is to accumulate 210,000 BTC, roughly 1% of Bitcoin’s total supply, by the end of 2027 under its “555 Million Plan.” Following the latest development, it still ranks 6th globally among corporate Bitcoin holders, trailing only giants like Strategy, MARA, XXI, Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company, and Riot.

Elsewhere, Strategy also revealed a modest purchase of 155 BTC for $18 million that brought its total reserves to $46.09 billion.

Market Reaction

According to Google Finance data, the Japanese Bitcoin Treasury’s stock has dipped by 2.1%. The stock has also fallen 37% over the past month but remains up 173% year-to-date.

To fund its aggressive accumulation, Metaplanet has adopted various unconventional financing tools designed to preserve shareholder equity while securing long-term capital. These include zero-interest convertible bonds, moving-strike warrants, and perpetual preferred stock issuances.

The latest buy followed an August 1 filing for a shelf registration to raise up to $3.74 billion through perpetual preferred shares. The outfit also said it plans to increase its authorized share count to 2.72 billion and introduce two classes of perpetual preferred shares. According to CEO Gerovich, the structure is meant to align financing flexibility with investor preferences while maintaining high per-share Bitcoin exposure.

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Bitcoin Holds Strong Near All-Time High – Market Not Overheated Yet, Data Shows https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-holds-strong-near-all-time-high-market-not-overheated-yet-data-shows/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-holds-strong-near-all-time-high-market-not-overheated-yet-data-shows/#respond Sun, 10 Aug 2025 08:47:49 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-holds-strong-near-all-time-high-market-not-overheated-yet-data-shows/

Bitcoin is holding firm above the $115,000 level after several days of trading below it, signaling renewed strength in the market. The bullish tone is building as Ethereum posts massive gains and altcoins begin to show strong moves over the past few days. For some analysts, this could be the start of the long-awaited altseason; for others, it’s simply the rest of the market catching up to Bitcoin’s earlier rally.

Related Reading

Top analyst Axel Adler noted that Bitcoin’s price is now trading close to its all-time high, with the BTC Z-Score (Price, 30/365) sitting around +1.5σ above its one-year norm. This reading is well below the +2.5σ level typically associated with overheating, suggesting that while momentum is strong, it is not yet at extreme levels. The current environment offers a favorable backdrop for potential upside, with room for the market to expand further before reaching overheated conditions.

With altcoins gaining traction and Ethereum’s rally adding fuel to the market’s optimism, the coming days could determine whether this is a sustainable breakout or just another phase of consolidation before the next major move.

On-Chain Activity Still Lags Behind Price

According to Adler, Bitcoin’s current market setup is showing a positive backdrop but with some important caveats. Adler points out that the Adjusted Price Divergence (APD) remains negative near −1.5 after rebounding from local lows around −2. This metric suggests that Bitcoin’s price is still outpacing on-chain activity, although the gap between the two is narrowing. In other words, while price momentum is firm, the network’s transactional activity and usage haven’t yet fully caught up.

Bitcoin Activity-Price Divergence | Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin Activity-Price Divergence | Source: CryptoQuant

This discrepancy creates an interesting dynamic for the market. Adler explains that the bias still favors price, meaning momentum is being driven more by investor positioning and sentiment than by on-chain fundamentals. For the rally to gain more structural support, a healthier setup would see APD move toward zero. This could happen in one of two ways: either network activity increases significantly while price moves sideways or posts modest gains, or Bitcoin’s price cools off to better align with current usage levels.

Importantly, Adler warns against interpreting APD moving toward zero as a direct buy or sell signal. Instead, it represents a sign of normalization — a point where market price and underlying network fundamentals are better aligned. For now, Bitcoin’s technical and macro backdrop remains bullish, but sustained long-term growth will likely require the network to catch up with price action.

Related Reading

Bitcoin Price Holds Key Support Near $115K

Bitcoin is consolidating above the $115,724 support level after a brief dip below it earlier this month. The daily chart shows price stabilizing just above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), currently near $113,324, which has acted as a strong dynamic support throughout the recent uptrend. The short-term structure remains bullish, with BTC trading inside a range between $115,724 support and the $122,077 resistance level.

BTC testing key liquidity level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
BTC testing key liquidity level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Volume has tapered off slightly since the early August rebound, suggesting the market is in a wait-and-see mode before a potential breakout. A decisive close above $118,000 could invite another test of the $122,077 resistance, a key level that has capped upside attempts multiple times. If broken, this could open the door toward new all-time highs.

Related Reading

On the downside, losing $115,724 would shift focus to the 100-day SMA at $108,983 as the next major support. Until then, the higher-lows pattern suggests buyers are defending the mid-$115K zone aggressively.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin Holds Steady At $115,000, But Realized Price Data Warns Of Fragility https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-holds-steady-at-115000-but-realized-price-data-warns-of-fragility/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-holds-steady-at-115000-but-realized-price-data-warns-of-fragility/#respond Wed, 06 Aug 2025 00:53:42 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-holds-steady-at-115000-but-realized-price-data-warns-of-fragility/

Following another rejection from the $120,000 region on July 21, Bitcoin (BTC) is now holding steady around the $115,000 level. However, realized price data suggests that BTC’s surface-level calm may be nearing its end.

Old Bitcoin Whales Stop Realizing Gains

According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Kripto Mevsimi, Bitcoin whale behavior indicates that the asset may be walking a tightrope. While “old whales” have stopped realizing profits, newer whales remain slightly in the green – though only marginally.

Related Reading

Here, old whales refer to large BTC holders who have held the digital asset for more than a year. New whales – including institutional players – are those who entered the market within the past year.

Kripto Mevsimi notes that the current balance between old capital and newly invested capital may not hold much longer. A decisive break in either direction could push BTC into a new price range.

The chart below illustrates the rising realized cap of old whales from 2022 to 2024, confirming that this cohort steadily realized profits during that period. Notably, this quiet distribution phase coincided with mid-cycle market conditions.

bitcoin
Source: CryptoQuant

However, since early 2025, the realized cap for old whales has flattened – signalling a pause in profit-taking. Their average cost basis of $39,400 puts them well in profit, suggesting they are likely waiting for higher prices before re-entering the market.

In contrast, the average cost basis for newer whales is approximately $105,300 – a level that now serves as their psychological breakeven. As long as BTC remains above this threshold, these newer investors are unlikely to sell in large numbers.

That said, a drop below this critical level could trigger risk-off behavior among new whales. Kripto Mevsimi suggests that such a move could escalate current conditions from moderate profit-taking to panic selling, potentially triggering a wave of leverage unwinds.

Keep An Eye On Realized Price

It’s worth noting that recent activity has been minimal across both BTC investor cohorts – old whales and new whales alike. As the CryptoQuant analyst puts it:

Old whales are idle. New whales are exposed. Neither is pressing the market – yet. But once the range breaks, the reaction could be sharp.

In short, Bitcoin holders should closely monitor realized price levels. If BTC maintains a price above $105,000, newer capital is likely to remain stable. However, a drop below that could weaken the floor and invite downside pressure.

Related Reading

Conversely, a breakout toward a new all-time high – possibly around the $130,000 mark – could bring old whales back into play, expanding their realized cap. That said, a few warning signs point to potential short-term weakness.

For instance, BTC deposits to Binance have been rising steadily after months of decline, indicating that selling pressure may increase in the near future. At press time, BTC trades at $113,500, down 0.3% over the past 24 hours.

bitcoin
Bitcoin trades at $113,500 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Demand Holds Strong Despite Price Drop: Accumulation Trend Remains Intact https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-demand-holds-strong-despite-price-drop-accumulation-trend-remains-intact/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-demand-holds-strong-despite-price-drop-accumulation-trend-remains-intact/#respond Mon, 04 Aug 2025 17:40:48 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-demand-holds-strong-despite-price-drop-accumulation-trend-remains-intact/

Bitcoin is trading just above the $112,000 level after breaking down from a consolidation range that held for over two weeks. The sharp decline sparked concerns among investors, particularly among Short-Term Holders (STH), who now face the difficult choice of realizing losses or holding underwater positions. However, top analyst Darkfost shared key insights suggesting that Bitcoin’s underlying demand remains robust, despite the price volatility.

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According to Darkfost, the Apparent Demand metric—comparing new BTC issuance to over one-year inactive supply—indicates that the market is still absorbing supply effectively. The ratio has stayed in positive territory, signaling that demand continues to outpace new issuance. Over the past 30 days, approximately 160,000 BTC have been accumulated, highlighting strong buying behavior even as prices corrected.

While sentiment among STH has weakened due to the recent drawdown, long-term accumulation trends suggest the broader market structure remains healthy. Investors with longer time horizons are continuing to add to their positions, reflecting confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. As BTC stabilizes around $112K, market participants are closely watching for a potential reversal or a deeper correction, with demand-side indicators offering a more optimistic outlook for the weeks ahead.

Demand from Accumulator Addresses and OTC Desks Signals Strong Conviction

Darkfost also highlighted critical insights regarding Demand from Accumulator Addresses, a metric that tracks wallets that have only acquired Bitcoin without any history of selling. This indicator provides a clear view into both the demand dynamics and the holding conviction of long-term investors.

Over the past month, the average BTC accumulated by these addresses has grown by approximately 50,000 BTC, showcasing a consistent and determined buying trend, despite recent price corrections. Such behavior underscores the confidence of long-term holders who are taking advantage of market dips to strengthen their positions.

Bitcoin Demand from Accumulator Addresses | Source: Darkfost on X
Bitcoin Demand from Accumulator Addresses | Source: Darkfost on X

On a broader horizon, BTC held on OTC Desks reflects a more strategic and long-term demand pattern. Unlike exchange-based activity, OTC transactions are less visible in immediate price action but offer a window into the intentions of institutional players.

Since September 2021, the supply of BTC on OTC desks has dropped sharply, from around 550,000 BTC to just 145,000 BTC today. This significant decline indicates that large-scale buyers are consistently removing Bitcoin from OTC circulation, reducing the available supply for future institutional entrants.

Whether examining short-term accumulation or long-term OTC trends, the overall demand-side picture remains notably positive. Despite recent volatility and a wave of short-term profit-taking, there are no major signs of structural weakness from demand-side indicators.

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Bitcoin Faces Key Resistance After Rebounding from Local Lows

Bitcoin is currently trading at $114,476, showing signs of stabilization after a sharp drop to $111,971 earlier this week. The chart shows BTC still hovering below the crucial $115,724 resistance, which aligns with the lower boundary of the previous consolidation range. The 50-day SMA sits at $100,228, providing a solid technical base, while the 100-day SMA at $95,433 remains a key medium-term support zone. The 200-day SMA is rising steadily at $77,282, confirming the long-term bullish trend.

BTC loses key support level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
BTC loses key support level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Despite the recent volatility, Bitcoin’s price structure still suggests a bullish outlook as long as BTC maintains higher lows above the $110K level. However, the $122,077 resistance remains a critical barrier. Breaking above this level would signal a strong bullish continuation towards new highs.

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Volume activity has been decreasing during this retracement, which is a positive sign, indicating that selling pressure is not overwhelming. If BTC can reclaim the $115,724 zone in the coming sessions, it would increase the probability of another breakout attempt towards $122K.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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