Bitcoin’s next major leg higher may depend less on halving lore and more on personnel politics in Washington. In an August 18 market note on X, economist and crypto analyst Alex Krüger argued that the cycle’s duration will be set by the Federal Reserve’s leadership change—specifically, who President Trump nominates to replace Jerome Powell—rather than by any fixed four-year pattern. “I have a high degree of confidence this cycle is not over because I am expecting changes in the Fed to bring on considerably more dovish monetary policy, which is not priced in at the moment; this would start to get priced in once Trump announces his nominee to replace Powell,” Krüger wrote.

Bitcoin Bull Run Depends On New Fed Chair

Krüger dismissed worries that a pullback from record highs marks the top, calling it “remarkable how every time you get a correction from new highs so many people start to fret about the cycle top. Over and over again.” He reiterated his longstanding critique of the halving-cycle orthodoxy: “The concept of a 4 year cycle in 2025 is misplaced; [it] died two cycles ago, and 2021 was a coincidence, as it was macro driven.” In his view, the last cycle ended because the Fed turned “ultra-hawkish in January 2022,” not because of any endogenous Bitcoin dynamic.

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The nomination clock is visible. Powell’s current four-year term as chair ends on May 15, 2026, and reporting over the past two weeks indicates the White House has narrowed a shortlist to “three or four” names, with an announcement potentially coming sooner than expected. Candidates floated in mainstream coverage include former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and NEC Director Kevin Hassett among others, underscoring the market’s focus on how dovish—or not—the next chair might be.

In the nearer term, the policy calendar still drives the tape. Powell’s final Jackson Hole appearance, scheduled during the Aug. 21–23 symposium, is widely framed as a tone-setting moment before the September FOMC. Consensus coverage flags the risk that Powell leans hawkish to preserve optionality, even as rates markets handicap a cut next month; Krüger leans “slightly bearish into it as a hawkish speech (to reduce the odds of a September cut) makes sense, for the Fed to retain optionality and not let the market push itself into a corner.”

Technically, Bitcoin has cooled after printing fresh all-time highs in mid-July and again last week. Traders are watching the previous $112,000 high as initial downside cushion, with the psychologically critical $100,000 level, the overhead reference remains the $122,000–$124,000 zone of recent peaks. Krüger also highlights that “BTC is having a very hard time going up sans leverage without triggers,” a point echoed by derivatives signals showing compressed risk appetite.

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Derivatives and volatility gauges corroborate the “low-vol, slow ascent” regime he describes. Implied volatility on BTC options (DVOL/BVIV) has sat near two-year lows, and open interest on institutional venues remains off July highs, signaling a more measured stance from levered players into Jackson Hole. Krüger also observed that futures basis had eased alongside the pullback—a classic sign of froth leaking out—while options markets show a renewed bid for downside protection on dips.

The macro through-line is straightforward: if the Fed chair nomination tilts dovish, markets will begin discounting a looser stance well before the first policy move, extending the cycle; if the candidate (and subsequent guidance) skews restrictive, the liquidity impulse that powered Bitcoin’s post-ETF advance will fade at the margin.

For now, the immediate catalysts are stacked—Powell at Jackson Hole, followed by PCE, NFP, CPI and PPI into September’s FOMC—while price trades between well-defined levels with volatility suppressed. As Krüger put it, bull markets “don’t end because of valuations or over-extension; the end needs a major trigger.” In 2025, that trigger may well be a name.

At press time, BTC traded at $115,683.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The current bearish phase of the crypto market has continued, with Bitcoin, the largest digital asset struggling to reclaim key levels such as the pivotal $100,000 mark. While the community anticipates another rally for BTC, analysts point to areas that are crucial and may spur an upsurge for the asset to new highs.

Key Level Stands Between Bitcoin’s Next Rally

After reaching a new all-time high last month, Bitcoin has been faced with bearish pressure, which has hindered the asset from revisiting the level. However, market expert and investor Mags highlights that a crucial barrier point that traders are keeping a careful eye on will determine whether BTC will reclaim its current peak or rise to fresh all-time highs.

Specifically, the critical resistance level pointed out by the market expert is the $99,500 range. Even with the recent slight bullish momentum, Bitcoin needs to recover and stay above the key level to confirm a breakthrough and sustain an upward movement.

Delving into BTC’s recent price action, Mags stated that its price has been maintaining sideways movements for the past few days. It is also trading below a mid-range as seen in the chart shared by the analyst.

According to Mags, BTC has already been tested with a fast wick at the low range. On the other hand, the expert anticipates a proper retest prior to the next top move for Bitcoin. As a result, he believes that a price flip of $99,500 is vital for BTC upswing to a higher level.

While Mags looks forward to a BTC rally, he noted that sideways movements are likely to last a little longer before the subsequent move up, which should be the last push for the asset. With the current bearish pressure, BTC’s failure to break through and hold this level could lead to an extended consolidation or notable pullbacks in the short term.

Looking at Mags’ chart, the anticipated breakout is capable of triggering a massive bullish wave to as high as nearly the $130,000 mark. A move to the range will confirm its potential to target higher price levels before the ongoing bull market cycle comes to an end.

BTC’s Market Top Could Be Happening Anytime Soon

Mags hints at this ongoing cycle coming to an end soon and BTC achieving its market park in the upcoming months. Bitcoin’s peak has historically occurred about 233 to 330 days after surpassing its previous all-time high.

Considering past cycles, BTC seems capable of experiencing growth despite waning conditions. Furthermore, the expert has pinpointed Bitcoin’s market top between the third and fourth quarters of this year.

His chart shows that BTC’s may peak at around $350,000 in the coming months. The asset recently underwent a price breakout, which may have set the stage for a path to a new all-time high and market top.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com