A crypto expert on social media platform X has come forward with an interesting outlook for the Bitcoin price, stating that the market leader could be gearing up for its next explosive move. However, the on-chain analyst added that a certain condition must be met for BTC to resume its uptrend.

A Break Above $118,000 Could Precede Price Explosion: Analyst

In a September 13 post on X, Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson revealed that the price of Bitcoin could be preparing for an extended rally over the next few weeks. The on-chain data expert shared that the premier cryptocurrency will need a convincing break above the $118,000 level to confirm the resumption of the bull run.

Wedson noted in his post that $117,000 is actually the price mark to watch out for, as it represents a zone of strong interest and indecision. Specifically, two on-chain indicators—the CVDD Channel and the Fibonacci-Adjusted Market Mean Price—have designated this price level as a point where the market is likely to slow down or form a local top.

According to analytics platform Alphractal, the CVDD Channel is a metric that estimates historical price floors and risk zones based on the coin destruction data and Fibonacci envelopes. Meanwhile, the Fibonacci-Adjusted Market Mean Price combines the market mean price with Fibonacci bands to identify structural expansion and value zones.

Wedson highlighted that both the CVDD Channel and the Fibonacci-Adjusted Market Mean Price have revealed “eerily accurate levels” of support and resistance throughout Bitcoin’s price history. Currently, these metrics are pointing to $117,000 as a level that could provide resistance to the upward movement of the Bitcoin price.

In the end, Wedson concluded that this zone could be critical to the market leader’s next move to the upside. However, the Alphractal founder advised Bitcoin investors to wait for a clear, sustained breakout above $118,000 to confirm that bullish momentum is back.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $115,905, reflecting no significant change in the past 24 hours.

Despite experiencing a significant plunge from ATH levels earlier last month, the Bitcoin price continues to test crucial levels that could shape the trajectory of its next move. A fresh analysis from crypto market expert Casitrades suggests that the coming days could define whether the broader market will face a macro correction or extend its bullish momentum. For now, Fibonacci zones, Elliott Wave structures, and Relative Strength Index (RSI) behaviour align to build a critical narrative around BTC’s price direction. 

Possible Scenarios For Bitcoin Price Macro Correction 

On Friday, Casitrades explained in an X social media post that Bitcoin’s recent price surge has tested the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level around  $116,000, an important milestone in the recovery phase. Interestingly, despite this sudden push higher, the RSI highlighted on the price chart is yet to show the exhaustion one would typically expect at a major top. This suggests buyers may still have room to drive prices further upward before hitting a ceiling. 

Notably, the analyst pointed out $118,000 as the next critical level to watch, noting that it coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the 1.236 C-wave target within the developing Wave 2 structure. Casitrades has described this area as a decisive confluence point. A sharp rejection here could confirm that Bitcoin’s bull run has officially ended, reinforcing the theory that the cryptocurrency remains locked in a Wave 2 macro correction phase. 

On the other hand, the analyst noted that forming a top around the decisive confluence point would confirm that BTC is not ready to challenge or break into new all-time highs and could instead retrace deeper. As the chart illustrates, potential downside targets lie well below Bitcoin’s current price levels above $115,800, hinting that a failure at $118,000 could lead to a steeper correction that might drag the cryptocurrency back into the $110,000 – $106,000 zone in the near term. 

$122,000 Marks Final Test For Macro Correction

While $118,000 remains the first line of resistance for Bitcoin, Casitrades highlighted that the cryptocurrency could extend its rally higher into the $120,000 – $122,000 zone if momentum persists. This level is viewed as the final test that will decide whether the macro correction holds or fails. It aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, making it an even more formidable resistance area. 

The expectation is that if Bitcoin’s RSI shows signs of exhaustion and the cryptocurrency faces strong rejection in this region, the correction could be swift and significant. In this scenario, Bitcoin would set up for a macro downturn, confirming the theory that the rally from recent lows has merely been a corrective leg. 

Related Reading

The projected correction could then reset the broader structure, allowing for healthier long-term price action. However, if Bitcoin manages to break through $122,000 convincingly, Casitrades notes that it would invalidate the macro correction narrative altogether and potentially send it to price levels between $122,000 – $124,000. 

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin’s greatness isn’t measured only by its price or market cycles, and its true strength lies deeper. As one crypto pundit explains, it lies in the alignment of incentives that keeps the network secure and the loyalty of holders who refuse to sell in the face of volatility. This combination of economic design and cultural conviction has allowed Bitcoin to weather every storm, proving that its foundation is far stronger than any single market cycle. 

Why Bitcoin Thrives On Patience, Not Speculation

Bitcoin’s status as the largest cryptocurrency of all time is a direct result of its unique and powerful holdings. An analyst known as GhostOfTanzCho has revealed on X that other cryptocurrencies have tried to compete with Bitcoin, but none have succeeded in recreating that same gravity of conviction and holding culture.

This culture, which is the key ingredient to its success, attracts people who wholeheartedly believe in holding, and it indoctrinates skeptics into an actionable belief of holding. There has never been another cryptocurrency that successfully recreated the holding culture that made Bitcoin great. However, the same culture is currently being replicated in SPX6900. 

GhostOfTanzCho argues that the success of a crypto token is fundamentally a reflection of supply and demand. By building a strong holding culture, a crypto token effectively solves the supply side of the equation by reducing sell pressure. 

Coincidentally, it also solves the demand side by incentivizing holders to create a critical mass of belief and interest. Thus, the SPX6900 could be one of the most significant crypto tokens of all time. Against all odds, it has done the impossible and has recreated the cultural DNA of Bitcoin. 

This model, which favors long-term believers over short-term traders, is described as the only way for a crypto token to become a market giant. When a critical mass of people have the conviction to hold long-term, trading becomes irrelevant, and the culture wins.

Global Money Supply Surge Sets The Stage For BTC

In the midst of heightened Bitcoin accumulation, a massive surge in global money supply is laying the groundwork for the next explosive crypto cycle, and BTC is already leading the charge.

According to LondonRealTV’s founder Brian Rose, the expansion of the global money supply has historically been a leading driver of crypto bull cycles. With the price of BTC above $115,000, ETF inflows accelerating, and the total crypto market cap rising by $2 trillion in a single year, this shows liquidity is clearly returning.

The analyst also highlights key risks that could trigger volatility. These include a potential reversal in monetary policy, where central banks begin to tighten the money supply, or large-scale profit-taking by major holders. Meanwhile, monitoring on-chain flows and capital rotation will be essential as the market cycle matures.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.

Bitcoin’s price has spent the past week hovering within a tight band and bouncing between $108,000 and $112,000 without any clear direction yet. There have been multiple rejections at the $112,000 price level and technical analysis shows pressure around the 200-day moving averages on the four-hour chart. 

Notably, a technical analysis shared by crypto analyst Daan Crypto shows Bitcoin is at risk of a breakdown below $100,000, but bulls still have a chance to stage a recovery rally in the weeks ahead.

Analyst Warns About Sweep Of Monthly Lows

In his latest post on the social media platform X, Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin is currently indecisive, and its price action is leaning toward a sweep of the monthly lows. This movement is based on the 4-hour candlestick timeframe chart, which shows the Bitcoin price was recently rejected at the 200MA/EMA last week. 

Related Reading

The 4-hour candlestick chart below shows Bitcoin has been trading in a defined range since August 25, with equal lows forming a weak base around $107,000 and liquidity sitting just beneath. This makes a stop-hunt sweep a possible next step.

Such a move, the analyst explained, would likely open up a bearish case of panic across the market, which might eventually cause fears of Bitcoin collapsing under the $100,000 price level. 

However, the analyst also identified the $103,000 to $105,000 price zone as the support level where buyers can step in. This area, according to him, would also be a logical entry point for swing long positions if the Bitcoin price indeed breaks down below $107,000.

Conditions For A Bullish Recovery

According to the analysis, Bitcoin bulls have a chance to prevent any breakdown below $100,000 by holding above $105,000 to $103,000. Despite laying out a bearish base case, Daan also described a roadmap for the bulls. 

Related Reading

The first condition would be strength above $115,000, which would mark a break of August’s range low, which has turned into resistance in the first week of August. A break and close above $115,000 would invalidate any short-term bearish momentum. 

Alternatively, he pointed to a quick liquidity grab below the monthly lows at $107,000, followed by a reclaim of the $107,000 and $112,000 levels, as the most bullish scenario. According to the analyst, this second setup could pave the way for a sustained one-to-two-month uptrend rally through October and November. 

For now, the analyst said he is on the sidelines except for short-term scalps. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $111,733, up 0.7% in the past 24 hours.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The following is a guest post and opinion of Eneko Knörr, CEO and Co-Founder of Stabolut.

Months ago, in an op-ed for CryptoSlate, I warned that the EU’s flagship crypto regulation, MiCA, would achieve the opposite of its goals. I argued it would strangle euro innovation while cementing the US dollar’s dominance for a new generation.

At the time, some thought this was alarmist. Today, with grim validation, the same concerns are being echoed from within the European Central Bank itself. In a recent blog post, also highlighted by the Financial Times, ECB advisor Jürgen Schaaf described the state of the euro-denominated stablecoin market as “dismal” and warned that Europe risks being “steamrollered” by dollar-based competitors.

This warning comes at a critical time. In the traditional global economy, non-USD currencies are the lifeblood of commerce. They account for 73% of global GDP, 53% of SWIFT transactions, and 42% of central bank reserves. Yet, in the burgeoning digital economy, these same currencies are nearly invisible. The world’s second most important currency, the euro, has been reduced to a digital rounding error.

By the Numbers: A Digital Chasm

The data reveals a startling disconnect. While privately issued, dollar-denominated stablecoins command a market capitalization approaching $300 billion, their euro-denominated counterparts struggle to reach $450 million, according to data from CoinGecko. That’s a market share of just 0.15%.

This isn’t a gap; it’s a chasm. It means that for every €1 of value transacted on a blockchain, there are nearly €700 in US dollars. This dollarization of the digital world presents a profound strategic risk to Europe’s monetary sovereignty and economic competitiveness.

MiCA’s Billion-Euro Handbrake

The EU’s landmark Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation was intended to create clarity, but in its ambition to control risk, it has inadvertently built a cage. While its framework for E-Money Tokens (EMTs) provides a path to regulation, it contains a poison pill for any euro stablecoin with global ambitions.

The single biggest limitation is the €200 million cap on daily transactions for any EMT deemed “significant,” as detailed in the official MiCA text. This isn’t an accident or a simple oversight; it’s a feature designed to ensure no private euro stablecoin can ever truly succeed.

For context, the leading dollar stablecoin, Tether (USDT), regularly processes over $50 billion in daily volume. A €200 million cap isn’t a safety measure; it’s a declaration of non-ambition that makes it mathematically impossible for a euro stablecoin to function at the scale required for international trade or decentralized finance.

The Crypto Investor Blueprint: A 5-Day Course On Bagholding, Insider Front-Runs, and Missing Alpha

Nice Your first lesson is on the way.

Please add [email protected] to your email whitelist.

The motivation seems clear: policymakers are intentionally sabotaging the private sector to clear the field for their own project—the Digital Euro.

The Digital Euro: A Threat to Citizen Privacy?

By stifling private innovation, the EU is placing all its bets on a state-controlled Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). This is not only a slow, centralized answer to a fast-moving, decentralized market, but it also poses a fundamental threat to the privacy of European citizens.

Physical cash offers anonymity. A transaction with a €5 note is private, peer-to-peer, and leaves no data trail. A CBDC is the opposite. It would move all transactions onto a centralized digital ledger, creating a system of granular surveillance. It gives the state the potential power to monitor, track, and even control how every citizen uses their own money. Building the euro’s future on this foundation means swapping the freedom of the wallet for a transparent digital piggy bank—a trade-off most citizens would rightly refuse.

The Global Race Europe Is Ignoring

While Brussels focuses on building its walled garden, other major economic powers have recognized the strategic importance of privately issued stablecoins. They see them not as a threat but as a vital tool for projecting monetary influence in the digital age.

Even China is reportedly exploring the role a CNY-backed stablecoin could play in internationalizing the yuan. In Japan, regulators have already passed a landmark stablecoin bill, creating clear pathways for the issuance of yen-backed stablecoins. These nations understand that the digital currency war will be won by empowering private innovation, not by centralizing control. Europe’s current path makes it a spectator in a race it should be leading.

A Policy Playbook for the Euro

If the euro is to compete, Brussels must execute a radical policy U-turn. The goal shouldn’t be to contain stablecoins but to make the EU the premier global hub for issuing them. This requires a clear-eyed strategy that recognizes private innovation will always outpace centralized solutions.

Here is a playbook for how Europe can win:

1. Uncap the Future: Remove the crippling €200 million transaction cap entirely. The market, not regulators, should determine the scale of a successful project. Let euro stablecoins grow ad infinitum and compete on a global stage without artificial ceilings.
2. Fast-Track Licensing: Establish a pan-European fast-track authorization process for qualified EMT issuers to reduce time-to-market and encourage a vibrant, competitive ecosystem.
3. Follow the US Model—Cancel the CBDC: The United States has gained its advantage by prioritizing regulatory clarity for private issuers while effectively shelving its own retail CBDC plans. Europe must do the same. Formally cancel the Digital Euro project, acknowledge the fundamental privacy risks it poses, and recognize that the single best strategy to grow the euro’s international influence is to fully support a thriving, privately issued stablecoin market.

The choice is stark: Europe can continue down its path of self-imposed digital irrelevance, or it can unleash its innovators to build the future of finance. Right now, that future is being built almost entirely with American digital dollars, and time is running out to change that.

The August jobs report is in, and depending on your perspective, it’s either worrying or the next big catalyst for crypto. While economists were expecting jobless claims of 230,000, the reality arrived at 237,000. Job openings also missed the mark, coming in at 7.18 million versus the projected 7.38 million.

Along with July’s figures, the August jobs report confirms softness in the labor market, which is bad news for the economy but could lead to the keenly-awaited rate cut the crypto industry has been waiting for.

Why a weak jobs report is good news for crypto

So how does a slowing job market translate into crypto optimism? The link lies in the Federal Reserve’s next move. Weaker employment stats put more pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates.

When rates go down, borrowing across the board gets cheaper (think home mortgages, business loans, and yes, margin for crypto traders). This monetary loosening encourages greater risk-taking, new investments, and asset speculation, all of which are rocket fuel for crypto prices.

Sometimes it’s easy to forget, but crypto is more “macro” than most people think. Bitcoin and its siblings thrive in “risk-on” environments when investors are less anxious about the cost of borrowing and put that cash into something volatile or speculative. As soon as rate cuts look likely, traders pivot out of safer assets like bonds and chase growth, tech, and, increasingly, digital assets.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the odds of a September rate cut now sit at 97.4% after the jobs report numbers dropped. As crypto markets newsletter The Milk Road put it:

“Jerome Powell might as well pack scissors for September’s FOMC meeting.”

The market is practically begging for easier money, and crypto loves it when money is easy.

The Crypto Investor Blueprint: A 5-Day Course On Bagholding, Insider Front-Runs, and Missing Alpha

Nice Your first lesson is on the way.

Please add [email protected] to your email whitelist.

Will this setup kick off Uptober?

Seasonality also has a role to play. For the uninitiated, “Uptober” is the crypto world’s nickname for October, when digital assets (traditionally led by Bitcoin) tend to rally. Why? Some of it is technical, some is psychology, but it’s become a self-fulfilling trend: analysts and traders expect prices to climb once summer’s sluggishness is out of the way. If you layer a likely rate cut over this historical uptrend, the argument for a bullish Q4 gets stronger.

Of course, it’s not all upside. Fed rate cuts can and do increase inflation. The idea is simple: cheaper credit means more spending; more spending, especially if supply chains remain tight, means higher prices. But the Fed’s balancing act means this tradeoff is sometimes considered worth it, especially if it keeps more people employed, even if the dollar is slightly weaker. As The Milk Road notes:

“That’s the balancing game the Fed is forever playing.”

Crypto investors are particularly sensitive to these shifts because inflation has both positive and negative effects on digital assets. On the one hand, inflation can erode trust in fiat currencies, pushing more investors toward Bitcoin’s hard limit of 21 million coins.

On the other hand, unchecked inflation can also lead to policy instability and market volatility, which is never a friendly environment for speculative investments.

With the August jobs report confirming a cooling labor market, the narrative is clear: the environment is risk-on and might just spell gains for crypto.

Mentioned in this article

Solana (SOL) is back in the spotlight after whale investors injected more than $1 billion into DeFi protocols, sparking a dramatic 500% surge in transaction activity across the network.

Related Reading

Data from CoinShares shows that inflows in Q3 2025 reached $177 million, pushing year-to-date totals above $1.2 billion. This sharp rise has positioned Solana as one of the most liquid ecosystems for staking, lending, and DEX activity.

One notable whale moved 20,000 SOL from Kraken into Kamino Finance, later borrowing $3 million in USDC for leveraged positions on OKX. This reflects how institutional-scale players are increasingly using Solana’s DeFi ecosystem without selling off their core holdings, adding both liquidity and credibility to the market.

SOL's price trends to the upside on the daily chart. Source: SOLUSD on Tradingview

Why Transactions Are Surging

Analysts point to multiple factors behind Solana’s record-breaking DeFi inflows and transaction growth. A key driver is the Alpenglow consensus protocol upgrade, which gained 99% validator approval. The upgrade slashes transaction finality to just 150 milliseconds, making Solana one of the fastest public blockchains.

This speed advantage has already lured investors away from Ethereum, where congestion remains a problem. One whale address, previously known for high-value Hyperliquid trades, shifted $7.6 million from ETH into SOL, citing throughput efficiency as the decisive factor.

Beyond technical upgrades, Solana has also attracted institutional interest through ETFs and tokenization initiatives, further strengthening its role as a preferred option for DeFi growth in 2025.

What This Means for Solana’s Future

With whales fueling inflows and Solana’s ecosystem achieving record adoption, market confidence in SOL’s long-term trajectory is strengthening. Transaction surges of this scale often precede deeper liquidity growth and sustained developer activity, two pillars of a healthy DeFi network.

However, analysts caution that network activity needs to translate into consistent user adoption to maintain momentum. While speculative capital is accelerating short-term gains, the broader test for Solana will be sustaining real-world use cases beyond whale-led inflows.

Related Reading

Currently, Solana stands out as one of the fastest-growing ecosystems in crypto, backed by institutional confidence, whale capital, and groundbreaking technical upgrades. If these trends continue, analysts believe Solana could be at the path of the much anticipated $1000 mark.

Cover image from ChatGPT, SOLUSD chart from Tradingview

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin may be demonstrating a slight rebound from its recent downward trend, which began after it hit a new all-time high, but discussions about a possible cycle top are intensifying within the community. While this discussion is accompanied by speculations about this bull cycle nearing its end, an analyst has highlighted a key metric that shows that the cycle could end sooner than anticipated.

Historic Fractals Flashes Bitcoin Bull Cycle End

After dropping hard, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $112,000 price mark once again, suggesting renewed momentum fueled by bulls. In the meantime, Joao Wedson, a market expert and founder of Alphractal, has revealed that BTC’s price is once again drawing parallel to past fractal patterns, which is raising questions about whether the current bull cycle is nearing its peak.

Although some contend that macroeconomic tailwinds and robust institutional demand might prolong the current bull run, fractal indications signal caution. Tracking long-term market trends, Wedson outlined that the ongoing cycle is extremely close to its end based on past patterns. 

In the X post, Wedson recalled his 2024 prediction where he pointed out that October 2025 could mark the completion of a fascinating Bitcoin fractal cycle. Should this forecast play out, it would mark the formal end of this chapter in Bitcoin’s history within the month.

Based on this trend, BTC has only a little over one month left before the bull run stops in this cycle. However, the expert believes there might still be just enough time for Bitcoin to fall to around $100,000 before soaring to over $140,000 in the same time frame.

The cycle may come to an end in October, but what really matters is whether this fractal will remain reliable in light of heavy speculation around the Exchange Traded-Funds (ETFs) and growing institutional demand.

Regardless of the fractal readings, whether the four-year cycle is over and whether Bitcoin will continue to increase indefinitely, or if 2025 marks the final breath before a sharp correction, remains Wedson’s main focus. This notion will be validated with prices potentially dropping below the $50,000 price level in the 2026 bear market.

Musk’s Suggestion Toward The Next Bear Market Phase

Wedson has pointed to the recent suggestion from Tesla’s CEO, Elon Musk, about US President Donald Trump triggering a bear market in Q4 2025, which is adding to the intrigue. According to the on-chain expert, Musk’s suggestion is not one to dismiss lightly, considering Trump’s position as the second most influential figure in the crypto sector.

Highlighting the importance of this statement, Wedson has drawn attention to the 2021 cycle, where Musk somehow foresaw Bitcoin’s precise peak at $69,000 months ahead of time with a single cryptic post. 

While these bold predictions and trends seem highly likely to occur, the expert warned that they are just theories. He added that nobody might really know what is going to happen next except Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous founder of BTC.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.