hedge – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Sun, 20 Jul 2025 19:51:17 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.8 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 hedge – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 Ken Griffin’s Citadel and Other Hedge Fund Giants Win Big on $53,000,000,000 Takeover of US Energy Company: Report https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ken-griffins-citadel-and-other-hedge-fund-giants-win-big-on-53000000000-takeover-of-us-energy-company-report/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ken-griffins-citadel-and-other-hedge-fund-giants-win-big-on-53000000000-takeover-of-us-energy-company-report/#respond Sun, 20 Jul 2025 19:51:16 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ken-griffins-citadel-and-other-hedge-fund-giants-win-big-on-53000000000-takeover-of-us-energy-company-report/

Several hedge funds are profiting big after their bet that gas giant Chevron would successfully acquire competitor Hess Corporation in a $53 billion deal.

Firms that specialize in merger arbitrage are looking at billions of dollars in windfall after a 20-month court arbitration finally concluded on Friday, Bloomberg reports.

Merger arbitrage is a trading strategy that involves betting on the outcome of a merger or acquisition, typically by taking long and/or short positions in the stocks of the companies involved.

According to a Morgan Stanley calculation, shares of Hess were the most widely held position for merger arbitrages in the US, collectively amounting to $10 billion worth of positions.

Notably among those betting on the acquisition were Ken Griffin’s Citadel Advisors, Adage Capital and HBK Investments.

Roy Behren, co-chief investment officer at Westchester Capital, says the firm held roughly $350 million in Hess shares in anticipation of the acquisition

“I’ve been waiting forever for this to happen. It took a year and a half, but I think the right outcome was achieved… The Hess stake was the largest position we have had in the past 15 years. The arbitration panel ruled the way our consultants and analysts expected.”

Citadel and HBK each had the equivalent of $1 billion in shares, according to the firms’ latest filings, says Bloomberg.

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Ether Sees Record Short Build up as Hedge Funds Pile on Basis Trade https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ether-sees-record-short-build-up-as-hedge-funds-pile-on-basis-trade/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ether-sees-record-short-build-up-as-hedge-funds-pile-on-basis-trade/#respond Mon, 14 Jul 2025 12:33:01 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ether-sees-record-short-build-up-as-hedge-funds-pile-on-basis-trade/

Hedge funds have been aggressively shorting ether (ETH) during the recent uptick to $3,000 as they attempt to harvest a yield by carrying out a basis trade.

Hedge funds are shorting ether to the tune of $1.73 billion on the CME, a venue favored by institutional traders, according to data from the Block, which cites the CFTC. CME data also shows that ether leveraged net totals have skewed heavily to the short side, according to X account zerohedge.

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A basis trade involves shorting an asset on one venue whilst simultaneously buying on another, remaining delta neutral in terms of price action. In this case, traders can secure around 9.5% per year by shorting ETH on the CME while buying spot ETFs, of which there is around $12 billion in assets under management.

Data from Coinglass shows that on Thursday alone there was a record $421 million worth of inflows to ether ETFs, a trend that has been ongoing since early May.

Those shorting ETH could secure an additional yield if they buy spot ETH and stake it for a further 3.5% per year. It’s worth noting that this option isn’t possible for spot ETF purchasers as custody is handled by the ETF provider.

Bitcoin

was a popular asset for traders carrying out the basis trade in 2024 but that yield collapsed in March, which temporarily stalled inflows and muted price action.

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Hedge Fund CEOs are just beginning the Bitcoin liquidity supercycle https://earlybirdsinvest.com/hedge-fund-ceos-are-just-beginning-the-bitcoin-liquidity-supercycle/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/hedge-fund-ceos-are-just-beginning-the-bitcoin-liquidity-supercycle/#respond Mon, 14 Jul 2025 07:41:42 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/hedge-fund-ceos-are-just-beginning-the-bitcoin-liquidity-supercycle/

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Bitcoin punched a fresh record of over $122,000 on the morning of July 14th, extending its month-long rally to over 16%. Against this backdrop, Charles Edwards (founder and CEO of Capriol Investment, a digital asset hedge fund) acknowledges that it is only in the “early stage” of a much broader liquidity-driven boom that could control the rest of 2025 and beyond.

Bitcoin Liquidity Super Cycle

In the latest Capriol newsletter, Edwards argues that “money and liquidity provide a capital flow background, and Bitcoin finance companies are the funnels.” He dismisses the idea that the $20,000 advance over the past two weeks is a technical accident and instead refers to deep macro currents that have been built for months.

“The biggest bitcoin rallies occur when the market is net shortage of USD,” he writes, pointing to Capriol’s own “USD positioning” gauge, aggregating futures data across major currencies. The metric has been “deeply negative” since early summer, indicating that global investors are critically betting on the dollar and supporting hard assets.

Related readings

Another pillar is credits. The BBB rated corporate bond spread has been shattered more closely since 2020 since spring, a classic risk-on signal in the traditional market that has nearly mapped tics to major Bitcoin up maubes. “More evidence,” Edwards says, “Bitcoin is a Tradfi asset.”

Perhaps the strongest tail wind is the growth of raw money. Global M3 is enlarged with 9% clips per year. This is a historically extreme rate that Capriol has stated that it ultimately coincided with an average 12-month Bitcoin return of around 460%. Edwards warns that Bitcoin is unlikely to repeat its size as a trillion dollar asset today.

Capriole’s framework is also based on the historical lead rug relationship between gold and Bitcoin. Once bullion entered a meaningful breakout, Bitcoin tended to continue after 3-4 months. Gold’s early 2025 surge and its outperformance and global stocks therefore provided “a strong support for the decline in demand for fiat money in the current market and the favor of hard money,” Edwards argues. Bitcoin has risen 28% since Capriol flagged the gold move in April.

The stocks also offer green lights. The New York Stock Exchange Advance and Deklein lines lost to new highs last week, but Capriol’s “Equity Premium” indicator reset to zero in late May.

All of these data points are fed to the company’s flagship Bitcoin macro index, a combination of numerous public and proprietary variables that Capriol uses to form the fund’s trading exposure. Even after the latest vertical movement of the coin, the index is “still in a strong, positive growth area,” reported Edwards. It suggests that the underlying drivers – fluid, risk emotion, and chain activity “stays intact.”

Bitcoin Ministry of Finance – Company Flywheel

But perhaps the most striking piece of the puzzle is outside of pure macros. Edwards highlights the emergence of Bitcoin Finance Companies (TCS). It will organize vehicles raising fiat capital in the equity or debt market and roll out to Spot BTC as a new “major bubble dynamics of this cycle.”

Related readings

The quarterly inflow into TCS reached $15 billion in the second quarter, with Capriol having at least 145 such companies pursuing their strategy. In the market capitalization expanded on balance sheet coin paper, Edwards believes “is likely to help add more than $1 trillion to Bitcoin’s market capitalization next year,” they expand on balance sheet coin paper.

He rejects the notion that this corresponds to unhealthy centralization. “If Bitcoin is one day a basic money, we need to scale it to tens of trillions to flatten the volatility.

Edwards emphasizes that his analysis is on the horizon for months. “When Bitcoin sees a massive gathering, there’s always a strong pullback and local overheating,” he admits, adding that the newsletter intentionally sidelines short-term on-chain bubbles, focusing on “the big picture and driving factors for the next six months.”

Still, Capriol’s conclusions are clear as Central Bank’s liquidity is abundant, dollars are crowded, credit stress is calming, and a structurally new pool of corporate buyers intervening. The liquidity tap is wide open and only supplied with Bitcoin Supercycle.

“The early adopters today may be considered speculators, but that will become very obvious in hindsight. After the Treasury waves become the government’s financial waves (the next cycle).

At the time of pressing, BTC was traded for $122,438.

Bitcoin Price
BTC price is 1.414 FIB, turn to one day chart Source: BTCUSDT on tradingView.com

Featured images created with dall.e, charts on tradingview.com

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Billionaire Bill Ackman Has 51% of His Hedge Fund's $14.4 Billion Portfolio Invested in Just 3 Exceptional Stocks https://earlybirdsinvest.com/billionaire-bill-ackman-has-51-of-his-hedge-funds-14-4-billion-portfolio-invested-in-just-3-exceptional-stocks/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/billionaire-bill-ackman-has-51-of-his-hedge-funds-14-4-billion-portfolio-invested-in-just-3-exceptional-stocks/#respond Mon, 07 Jul 2025 00:07:00 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/billionaire-bill-ackman-has-51-of-his-hedge-funds-14-4-billion-portfolio-invested-in-just-3-exceptional-stocks/ Ackman’s best ideas still look attractive at today’s prices.

Bill Ackman likes to keep his hedge fund, Pershing Square Capital, invested in just a few high-conviction companies. Indeed, it’s hard to generate market-beating returns if your investments are spread so thin your portfolio looks pretty similar to the overall stock market. But Ackman and his team hold stock in just 10 publicly traded companies.

Ackman is willing to deploy billions of dollars at once to accumulate shares in his highest-conviction bets, and he likes to hold those stocks for a long time. As such, Pershing Square’s monthly investor updates and quarterly disclosures with the SEC can be a great source of investing ideas. And Ackman’s three best ideas right now account for more than half of Pershing Square’s publicly traded portfolio.

Here are Ackman’s top three holdings.

A pie chart printed on a piece of paper.

Image source: Getty Images.

1. Uber (19.7% of portfolio)

Ackman accumulated 30.3 million shares of Uber (UBER 1.65%) at the start of 2025 before announcing the new position on X in early February. Pershing Square’s first-quarter 13-F filing revealed it was, in fact, Pershing Square’s largest position.

That position has only gotten bigger as Uber stock has climbed about 55% since the start of the year, reaching a new all-time high. A large part of that rally came after Ackman announced Pershing Square’s position.

But the long-term prospects look good for Uber, too. While some see autonomous vehicles as a threat to Uber’s ride-sharing business, it could turn out to be an opportunity for the company. That’s because Uber has, by far, the largest customer base for taxi services. It counted 170 million total monthly active users as of the end of the first quarter. And its market share is growing thanks to the network effect and giving users more ways to use its service.

That’s an incredible asset that most companies building autonomous vehicles would love to tap into. Alphabet‘s Waymo, the leading self-driving car company, has already inked several deals with Uber to operate in multiple cities.

In the meantime, Uber is executing on its financial goals. Gross bookings increased 14% last quarter. With improved operating leverage, the company managed to grow earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) 35%. With limited cash expenditures, it managed to produce 66% growth in free cash flow (converting over 100% of EBITDA).

Despite the strong run-up in price, shares of Uber look fairly valued at an enterprise value less than 23 times forward EBITDA estimates as of this writing. Considering management expects EBITDA growth above 30% over the next couple of years, that’s a very attractive price.

2. Brookfield (18.4%)

Ackman has built a position in Canadian alternative asset manager Brookfield (BN 2.58%)over the last four quarters. On top of asset management, the company operates businesses across several segments, including real estate, renewable power facilities, and infrastructure. Those cash-flowing businesses give it capital to invest in additional operating businesses.

Brookfield Wealth Solutions, its insurance business, provides additional capital via float for management to invest. That’s a strategy Warren Buffett used to grow Berkshire Hathaway, and one Ackman has expressed interest in himself.

Overall, Brookfield has grown distributable earnings per share at an average rate of 19% per year over the past five years. There’s no reason to expect that rate to slow significantly over the next few years, as management uses its considerable cash flows from asset management, insurance, and its operating businesses to buy profitable assets while returning additional cash to shareholders through buybacks. Management is targeting $6.33 in earnings per share by 2029, a 16% compound annual growth rate. It grew 30% in the first quarter.

Despite the strong growth expectations, the stock trades for just 19 times trailing earnings per share. That’s well below comparable comparable companies and appears to undervalue the growth potential of the business.

3. Howard Hughes Holdings (13.3%)

After a deal to acquire an increased stake in Howard Hughes (HHH -0.12%) through Pershing Square in May, Ackman now serves (once again) as executive chairman for the company’s board. Ackman put up $900 million of Pershing Square’s cash in exchange for 9 million shares of the stock, giving it a 46.9% economic stake in the company and 40% control of the vote.

The bigger part of the deal is that Ackman is able to take Howard Hughes and transform its existing real estate operations into a diversified holding company a la Berkshire Hathaway. Ackman has said one of his first moves will be to buy or build an insurance business.

In the meantime, Howard Hughes’ core business looks undervalued. Management estimated the net asset value of its master planned communities, condos, and operating assets (minus its corporate debt) at about $5.8 billion per share at the end of last year. The $900 million cash infusion from Pershing Square’s investment will bring its net asset value even higher, but the company’s total market cap sits at just $4 billion as of this writing.

Howard Hughes generates strong operating cash flow through the sale of its plots to homebuilders and rental income from its commercial and multifamily buildings. Since it controls the entire acreage of its master planned communities, it’s able to build just enough to meet demand for office buildings and multifamily housing, ensuring strong returns on capital spending. The rest of its cash can go toward new investments, especially now as a diversified holding company.

The new structure does come with some drawbacks, though. Howard Hughes will have to pay Pershing Square $3.75 million every quarter on top of a 0.375% incentive fee for increasing the value of the business above inflation. That said, Howard Hughes opens the door for average investors to put their money to work directly with Ackman and gain access to private deals he might make instead of following along with Pershing Square’s public moves. And with the stock trading below management’s estimate for net asset value, it may be a good opportunity for investors.

Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Adam Levy has positions in Alphabet. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Berkshire Hathaway, Brookfield, Brookfield Corporation, Howard Hughes, and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Will Bitcoin Survive Without Trump? Hedge Funds Aren’t Convinced, Says Semler https://earlybirdsinvest.com/will-bitcoin-survive-without-trump-hedge-funds-arent-convinced-says-semler/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/will-bitcoin-survive-without-trump-hedge-funds-arent-convinced-says-semler/#respond Sun, 22 Jun 2025 02:10:10 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/will-bitcoin-survive-without-trump-hedge-funds-arent-convinced-says-semler/

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Amin Ayan

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Eric Semler, chairman of Semler Scientific Inc., believes many hedge funds remain unconvinced about Bitcoin’s long-term viability beyond the Trump administration.

Key Takeaways:

  • Eric Semler says many hedge funds doubt Bitcoin’s future beyond the Trump administration.
  • Despite skepticism, Semler’s firm is aggressively building a BTC treasury, targeting 105,000 coins.
  • Crypto exposure among hedge funds is rising, with nearly half now holding digital assets.

Speaking in an interview with Natalie Brunell on Coin Stories, Semler said traditional finance still views Bitcoin as a fleeting trend that may not survive political transition.

“I think that they think it is a fly-by-night concept and that it is probably going to, after the Trump administration, go back down a lot,” said Semler, who also founded TCS Capital Management.

Trump’s Crypto Push Faces Uncertainty Beyond His Term

His remarks come as debate grows over whether U.S. political support for crypto will endure past President Trump’s term.

While Trump recently endorsed a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, figures like JAN3 CEO Samson Mow have warned that such initiatives could quickly unravel under a different administration.

Despite broader skepticism, Semler has gone in the opposite direction. In May, Semler Scientific became only the second U.S. public company to adopt a Bitcoin treasury strategy.

The firm currently holds 4,449 BTC and plans to ramp that up to 105,000 BTC within two and a half years, targeting 10,000 BTC by year-end.

For Semler, institutional doubt is part of the opportunity. “When you’re making a bet on something that the majority doesn’t believe in, and you’re right, you make so much more money,” he said.

“I love the negativity; I’m a contrarian investor,” he added, noting that his most profitable investments came when others were dismissive. “Those are the types of investments that have the highest returns.”

While some hedge fund managers are still hesitant, the broader trend suggests rising crypto exposure.

A 2024 survey by the Alternative Investment Management Association and PwC showed that 47% of hedge fund managers now hold some level of crypto exposure, up from 29% in 2023 and 37% in 2022.

Looking further back, a 2021 Intertrust Global survey of hedge fund CFOs showed that nearly all expected to allocate 7.2% of their portfolios to crypto by 2026.

VanEck Warns BTC Treasury Strategy May Backfire

Just recently, VanEck’s head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, raised concerns about the Bitcoin treasury strategies used by certain public companies, suggesting that continued accumulation of BTC could soon harm shareholders more than help.

He specifically criticized the use of at-the-market (ATM) share issuance programs, warning that they can become dilutive when stock prices approach the company’s Bitcoin net asset value (NAV).

Sigel proposed several measures to prevent value erosion, including pausing ATM programs if a company’s stock trades below 0.95x NAV for over 10 days.

He drew comparisons to past failures in the crypto mining sector, where excessive dilution and executive pay led to major shareholder losses.

As an example, he cited Semler Scientific, a medical tech firm that entered the BTC space in 2024.

Despite acquiring 3,808 BTC, its stock has fallen over 45%, and its mNAV has dropped to 0.82x.


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RIAs surpass hedge funds in Bitcoin ETF holdings, manage over $10 billion in BTC https://earlybirdsinvest.com/rias-surpass-hedge-funds-in-bitcoin-etf-holdings-manage-over-10-billion-in-btc/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/rias-surpass-hedge-funds-in-bitcoin-etf-holdings-manage-over-10-billion-in-btc/#respond Wed, 04 Jun 2025 19:44:42 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/rias-surpass-hedge-funds-in-bitcoin-etf-holdings-manage-over-10-billion-in-btc/ New data from the latest 13F filings reveals a sharp increase in institutional interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs, with registered investment advisors (RIAs) emerging as the dominant players.

Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, highlighted that RIAs have now taken the lead among institutional holders of Bitcoin ETFs. Collectively, this group holds exposure to more than 124,000 BTC, which amounts to over $10.2 billion in assets.

Bitcoin ETF
Bitcoin ETF Institutional Investors (Source: X/Balchunas)

That figure places them well ahead of hedge funds, which account for roughly $7 billion in Bitcoin ETF exposure, and brokerages, which hold about $2.1 billion.

Industry insiders also point to a shift in how RIAs are marketing crypto to high-net-worth (HNW) clients.

William Poulin, former head of product at Fidelity, highlighted a trend where savvy advisors rebrand portfolio strategies as exclusive hedge funds.

These RIAs are placing Bitcoin and Ethereum into limited partnerships (LPs), then charging management fees in the structure of “1 and 15”—that is, 1% of assets under management (AUM) plus 15 basis points of gains.

The post RIAs surpass hedge funds in Bitcoin ETF holdings, manage over $10 billion in BTC appeared first on CryptoSlate.

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Secretive Hedge Fund Run by Ex-JPMorgan Chase Trader Bringing In 51% Average Returns: Report https://earlybirdsinvest.com/secretive-hedge-fund-run-by-ex-jpmorgan-chase-trader-bringing-in-51-average-returns-report/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/secretive-hedge-fund-run-by-ex-jpmorgan-chase-trader-bringing-in-51-average-returns-report/#respond Mon, 26 May 2025 12:55:38 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/secretive-hedge-fund-run-by-ex-jpmorgan-chase-trader-bringing-in-51-average-returns-report/

An ex-JPMorgan analyst has reportedly set up a mysterious hedge fund in Taiwan that has so far recorded massive return rates.

Former JPM Asset Management analyst Andre Liu has quietly created a proprietary trading firm powerhouse in Taipei that has far outshone the rest of the industry, reports Bloomberg.

According to the firm’s internal documents seen by Bloomberg, UC Capital has recorded an internal rate of return of 51% since it was launched in 2021.

A report from research and insights firm PivotalPath found that in 2024, hedge funds scored an average return of 10.7%.

Citing people familiar with the matter, Reuters reported that hedge fund giant Citadel’s flagship Wellington fund saw a 15.1% return that year while Millennium Management saw 15%. Bridgewater Associates, which is widely regarded as the largest hedge fund in the world, posted 11% in gains for its flagship Pure Alpha 18% volatility fund.

Bloomberg’s data also shows that UC Capital has routinely beaten the local market in Taiwan (TAIEX), even recording significant gains in 2022 despite the Taiwan stock market index ending the year in the negative.

Source: Bloomberg

UC Capital turned heads in Q4 of last year when it successfully purchased the ball that baseball star Shohei Ohtani hit his 50th home run on the same season he also stole 50 bases – a legendary feat in the MLB.

According to Bloomberg, Liu started UC with a colleague in 2013, and by 2021, the firm’s assets exploded 27,000% before the trader decided to start his own company.

Says Liu,

“Ever since I was a kid, I believed that the heart of trading lies in the changes in moods and sentiment.”

Consequently, UC’s engineers have built a model to measure public discourse by scraping and analyzing social media, online forums, news articles and comment sections, in what the firm describes as “sentiment thermometers” to track certain trending topics and behavior.

Leveraging its sentiment-driven approach, UC capitalized on a decline in TSMC’s share price earlier this year after its models detected a surge in public discourse involving President Trump and the company’s future. At the time, the chipmaker announced a $100 billion investment in its US plants.

UC also reportedly bought an earthquake detector on the eastern coast of Taiwan so that the firm would know about earthquakes before anyone else could in order to short markets in case of uncertainty.

The trading firm currently has about $497 million in liquid assets before leverage.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Bitcoin Transitioning From Risk To Hedge Asset As Institutions and Governments Adopt BTC, Says Bitwise CIO https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-transitioning-from-risk-to-hedge-asset-as-institutions-and-governments-adopt-btc-says-bitwise-cio/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-transitioning-from-risk-to-hedge-asset-as-institutions-and-governments-adopt-btc-says-bitwise-cio/#respond Tue, 06 May 2025 07:24:48 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-transitioning-from-risk-to-hedge-asset-as-institutions-and-governments-adopt-btc-says-bitwise-cio/

The CIO of the crypto asset management firm Bitwise says Bitcoin (BTC) is going through the next phase of its natural evolution.

In a new Crypto Prime interview, Matt Hougan points out a key difference between the current Bitcoin bull market and the one witnessed in 2020.

According to Hougan, the current market cycle is being driven by major institutions laying the groundwork for Bitcoin’s evolution into a trusted store of value.

“The Bitcoin of today really is different than the Bitcoin of five years ago. That was a Bitcoin driven by retail investors and crypto-native investors. This is increasingly a Bitcoin driven by institutions, corporations, governments and macro hedge funds. 

And you’re seeing it behave differently. You’re seeing it behave more like a hedge asset. I think it’s maturing before our eyes. Bitcoin’s a teenager. It’s 15 years old. It’s in a transition phase from a risk asset to a hedge asset. But I think that’s the direction of travel. I think you’re going to see it act like that more and more in the future.

And as it does, it’s going to bring more investors into it because it’s a really useful tool in the macro quiver.”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $94,703.

 

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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As “Triple Put” unfolds, Bitcoin will trade at a 40% discount: founder of hedge funds: https://earlybirdsinvest.com/as-triple-put-unfolds-bitcoin-will-trade-at-a-40-discount-founder-of-hedge-funds/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/as-triple-put-unfolds-bitcoin-will-trade-at-a-40-discount-founder-of-hedge-funds/#respond Fri, 25 Apr 2025 15:41:30 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/as-triple-put-unfolds-bitcoin-will-trade-at-a-40-discount-founder-of-hedge-funds/

Reasons to trust

Strict editing policy focusing on accuracy, relevance and fairness

Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed

The highest standard for reporting and publishing

Strict editing policy focusing on accuracy, relevance and fairness

The soccer price for the Lion and Player is soft. I hate each of my arcu lorem, ultricy kids, or ullamcorper football.

This article is also available in Spanish.

Bitcoin is changing its hands at a price that is nearly 40% below the modelled “energy value,” but the extraordinary confluence of technical, fundamental and policy signals suggests that markets may be changing. In his latest newsletter, Edwards argues that the newly formed “triple put” (a coincidence backstop from the White House, the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury) has altered the risk profiles of all risk assets and macro indicators to make the Bitcoin flip crucial.

Bitcoin turns bullish

Edwards starts with emotion and describes it as “in the pit.” The spread of the American Investor Bull Association is “as bearish as the lowest in 2009 and 2022, significantly worse than the 2020 Covid Crush.”

The CNN Fear & Greed Index has registered the darkest reading, “In Years,” while Capriole’s own active manager, Sentiment Gauge, shows an under-recorded equity manager. “Simply put, investors are in panic today,” he writes, warning that such extreme measurements “usually match at the central stage of major prices.” The combination leaves behind what Edwards calls “blood (and terror) on the streets,” repeating the Rothschild maxim that he fully cites.

Related readings

Technically, Bitcoin made a sharp reversal a few days ago. The $94,000 breakout candle has regained the entire $91,000-$100,000 range that closed the market from February. Edwards classifies the move as “a massive range of recovery,” adding that “for Bitcoin, such bullish ranges rarely look back at prices.”

Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Technical Analysis | Source: Capriole

Unless the market offers “daily closings under $91,000”, he writes, “it’s harder to get a more bullish tech chart than this.” The breakout coincides with his company’s basic machine learning model, Bitcoin Macro Index, and is positive in the neutral realm after a few months. The index fuses over 70 on-chain, macroeconomic and stock market variables. Prices are intentionally excluded to avoid feedback effects. Last week, the model “reset to ‘fair value’ and resumed its bullish trend,” ShiftEdwards calls it “a very promising basic data reading.”

“Triple Put”

Policy development provides a third game of the story. April 2 (the so-called “liberation date”) imposed global tariffs that the US cleaned, halving them, adding a 90-day suspension after the stock sold about 15%, VIX exceeding 30 and expanding credit spreads.

Edwards describes the rapid reversal of “Trump Put” as the first “Trump Put.” A day ago, on April 1st, the Federal Reserve began reducing the pace of quantitative tightening to 95% (“Fed Put”), effectively ending its four-year balance sheet contraction. CME FedWatch Tools’ derivative traders are now allocating base cases to three rate reductions by the end of the year.

Related readings

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bescent told reporters that the failures in the Treasury are driven by delaboration rather than foreign sales, and the department “has the tools to mitigate the situation, such as expanding buybacks if necessary” (“Treasury)).

“There are currently three major financial markets in place, and everyone is ready to sprint through the financial markets. The US President, the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury represent Triple Put,” Edwards said.

Is BTC underrated?

Capriol’s own “This Week’s Chart” highlights the review debate. Bitcoin’s energy value (an internal metric that the network prices using total minor power consumption) exceeds $130,000 for the first time this month.

So, with spot market trading close to $94,000, Edwards calls it “very rare” after a “nearly 40% discount” that is the depth of underestimation and Harving and “a very welcome sight.” Historically, energy value has acted as a subtraction of price gravity. This size gap narrowed with each previous cycle.

Capriol's Bitcoin Energy Value
Capriol’s Bitcoin Energy Value | Source: X @caprioleio

Edwards softens the bullish painting with warnings. “Political and volatility risk remains, and new policy changes are the biggest risks to derail the market right now,” he writes, adding that Capriol will monitor Bitcoin protecting $91,000 at the end of the week and keeping the macro index growing.

However, his overall tone is undoubtedly optimistic. “Today, the outlook for Bitcoin is very bullish and we’re joining together across technology, basics and emotions,” he concludes. If the week ends above its current level, Edwards said, “We’ll soon push the new all-time high with Bitcoin.”

At the time of pressing, BTC traded for $93,723.

Bitcoin Price
BTC integrates key support, one day chart Source: BTCUSDT on tradingView.com

Featured images created with dall.e, charts on tradingview.com

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Star Hedge Fund Manager On 9-Year Hot Streak Reaps Massive Profits On Trump Bets: Report https://earlybirdsinvest.com/star-hedge-fund-manager-on-9-year-hot-streak-reaps-massive-profits-on-trump-bets-report/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/star-hedge-fund-manager-on-9-year-hot-streak-reaps-massive-profits-on-trump-bets-report/#respond Sun, 13 Apr 2025 06:29:56 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/star-hedge-fund-manager-on-9-year-hot-streak-reaps-massive-profits-on-trump-bets-report/

British-American investment management firm BlueCrest Capital is reportedly sitting on massive gains after its owner – billionaire Michael Platt – took a bet on the new White House administration.

Citing “people with knowledge on the matter” who asked not to be identified, Bloomberg reports that BlueCrest is up 20% on the year already, while taking into account fees and expenses.

Platt reportedly used aggressive amounts of leverage to exploit the extreme volatility triggered by President Trump’s trade war, with BlueCrest now on track to complete a decade of consecutive returns.

BlueCrest returned capital to outside investors, turning the firm into a privately owned and managed family office, so its exact assets under management (AUM) is unclear – though court documents show that BlueCrest held $3.9 billion in 2022.

According to Forbes, Michael Platt is Britain’s richest hedge fund manager, worth about $18.8 billion as of December 2024, and currently stands with only a select few who have managed to profit in 2025 despite the global market sell-off induced by President Trump.

Billionaire Warren Buffett also recorded billions of dollars in gains this year, upping his net worth over $11.5 billion this year alone, and his gains come despite this month’s sell off, which reduced Buffett’s 2025 winnings by $14.5 billion.

Buffett, who is now ranked fourth among global billionaires, is one of only two in the top 20 that grew richer this year.

He’s alongside L’Oreal heiress Francoise Bettencourt Meyers, who has added $1.8 billion.

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