Hands – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Sat, 06 Sep 2025 06:14:38 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.7 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Hands – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 Cardano’s Bearish Retail Crowd Hands Whales a Buying Opportunity https://earlybirdsinvest.com/cardanos-bearish-retail-crowd-hands-whales-a-buying-opportunity/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/cardanos-bearish-retail-crowd-hands-whales-a-buying-opportunity/#respond Sat, 06 Sep 2025 06:14:37 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/cardanos-bearish-retail-crowd-hands-whales-a-buying-opportunity/

Cardano’s retail base has flipped bearish after weeks of drawdowns, setting up conditions where whales could step in.

Data from Santiment shows ADA’s bullish-to-bearish commentary ratio slumped to 1.5:1 this week — the lowest in five months. The sentiment dip coincided with a 5% rebound, suggesting traders who sold into frustration may have helped mark a local bottom.

Historically, ADA rallies have tended to begin when retail sentiment is weakest. Santiment flagged a similar setup in mid-August, when a 2:1 ratio aligned with a surge. Conversely, euphoric spikes — like the 12.8:1 ratio earlier this summer — have preceded sharp pullbacks.

(Santiment)

(Santiment)

Sentiment extremes matter because crypto markets are unusually sensitive to retail psychology. When optimism peaks, the crowd often buys into tops. When pessimism sets in, larger players use the selling pressure to accumulate. That pattern has been visible across multiple assets this year, including bitcoin and XRP.

For Cardano, the shift suggests whales could use current weakness to build positions, especially if retail continues to capitulate.

The crowd-versus-price divergence remains one of crypto’s more reliable short-term trading signals. For now, ADA’s impatient traders may have just handed longer-term investors their entry point.

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The Supreme Court hands down incomprehensible gobbledygook about federal grants https://earlybirdsinvest.com/the-supreme-court-hands-down-incomprehensible-gobbledygook-about-federal-grants/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/the-supreme-court-hands-down-incomprehensible-gobbledygook-about-federal-grants/#respond Fri, 22 Aug 2025 05:36:00 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/the-supreme-court-hands-down-incomprehensible-gobbledygook-about-federal-grants/

Late Thursday afternoon, the Supreme Court handed down an incomprehensible order concerning the Trump administration’s decision to cancel numerous public health grants. The array of six opinions in National Institutes of Health v. American Public Health Association is so labyrinthine that any judge who attempts to parse it risks being devoured by a minotaur.

As Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson writes in a partial dissent, the decision is “Calvinball jurisprudence,” which appears to be designed to ensure that “this Administration always wins.”

The case involves thousands of NIH grants that the Trump administration abruptly canceled which, according to Jackson, involve “research into suicide risk and prevention, HIV transmission, Alzheimer’s, and cardiovascular disease,” among other things. The grants were canceled in response to executive orders prohibiting grants relating to DEI, gender identity, or Covid-19.

A federal district court ruled that this policy was unlawful — “arbitrary and capricious” in the language of federal administrative law — in part because the executive orders gave NIH officials no precise guidance on which grants should be canceled. As Jackson summarized the district court’s reasoning, “‘DEI’—the central concept the executive orders aimed to extirpate—was nowhere defined,” leaving NIH officials “to arrive at whatever conclusion [they] wishe[d]” regarding which grants should be terminated.

According to Jackson, “the court found, as a factual matter, ‘an unmistakable pattern of discrimination against women’s health issues’ and ‘pervasive racial discrimination’—indeed, ‘palpable’ racial discrimination of a sort the judge had ‘never seen’ in 40 years on the bench.”

The question of whether this judge was correct to deem the Trump administration’s policy arbitrary and capricious, however, was not before the Supreme Court. Instead, the case hinged on a jurisdictional dispute.

Which court is supposed to hear this case?

As a general rule, lawsuits alleging that a federal policy is illegal are heard by federal district courts, while suits alleging that the federal government breached a contract are heard by the Court of Federal Claims.

In NIH, the plaintiffs alleged that the broader policy that led to their grants being canceled was illegal, so that suggests that this case should have been brought in a district court (which is where it was actually brought). But the case also bears some superficial similarity to a breach of contract suit, because it involved the government’s decision not to pay money that it had previously agreed to pay.

Four justices — the three Democrats plus Chief Justice John Roberts — concluded that these plaintiffs were right to bring their suit in the district court. Four other justices — Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, and Brett Kavanaugh — concluded that the case must be brought in the Court of Claims. That would mean that these plaintiffs would have to start over again in the claims court, and possibly that they would have to bring individual suits seeking to reinstate individual grants, rather than seeking a broad order attacking the entire grant cancellation policy.

Justice Amy Coney Barrett, meanwhile, cast the deciding vote. She claims that this suit must be split between the two courts. In her view, the district court was the proper venue for the plaintiffs to argue that the overall policy is illegal, but the claims court is the proper venue for them to actually seek the money they would have received if the grants are not canceled.

If that sounds confusing, it gets worse. Barrett’s opinion states that federal law bars the claims court from hearing “claims pending in other courts when those claims arise from ‘substantially the same operative facts.’” So these plaintiffs likely must wait until after they have fully litigated the question of whether the Trump administration’s broad policy is illegal in district court, before they can actually try to get any money in the claims court.

That could take years, especially if the first question is heard by the justices again. Moreover, as Jackson warns in her opinion, by the time the first round of litigation is finished, the plaintiffs may be unable to seek relief in the claims court because the statute of limitations for doing so will have expired.

The bottom line is that, because there are five votes for the proposition that some parts of this case go to the district court, and also five votes for the proposition that other parts of it go to the claims court, Barrett’s opinion controls the case. By the time this mess gets sorted out, it is likely that most — if not all — of the research at issue in NIH will be lost, even if the plaintiffs do prevail.

As Jackson writes, without any money to fund their operations, the grant recipients will need to “euthanize animal subjects, terminate life-saving trials, and close community health clinics.”

There are actually even more complexities in this case, but rather than engage in the Sysiphean task of trying to list all of them, I will simply repeat Jackson’s summary of what appears to be going on here:

In a broader sense, however, today’s ruling is of a piece with this Court’s recent tendencies. “[R]ight when the Judiciary should be hunkering down to do all it can to preserve the law’s constraints,” the Court opts instead to make vindicating the rule of law and preventing manifestly injurious Government action as difficult as possible. This is Calvinball jurisprudence with a twist. Calvinball has only one rule: There are no fixed rules. We seem to have two: that one, and this Administration always wins.

Godspeed to the poor lawyers and judges who now have to untangle the mess this Court just created.

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Bitcoin Price Prediction: 67% of BTC Still in Individual Hands – What Does This Say About Price Potential? https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-price-prediction-67-of-btc-still-in-individual-hands-what-does-this-say-about-price-potential/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-price-prediction-67-of-btc-still-in-individual-hands-what-does-this-say-about-price-potential/#respond Sat, 26 Jul 2025 14:33:35 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-price-prediction-67-of-btc-still-in-individual-hands-what-does-this-say-about-price-potential/

Crypto Journalist

Anas Hassan

Crypto Journalist

Anas Hassan

About Author

Anas is a crypto native journalist and SEO writer with over five years of writing experience covering blockchain, crypto, DeFi, and emerging tech.

Last updated: 


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Bitcoin’s price has demonstrated resilience, climbing above $118,000 after weathering significant selling pressure from whale activity.

This recovery has sparked discussions among market participants about the extent to which large holders and long-dormant wallets influence Bitcoin’s price movements.

Contrary to widespread assumptions about whale dominance, recent insight from River, a Bitcoin-focused financial institution, shows that more than 67% of all BTC remains under individual ownership rather than institutional control.

Individual Ownership Powers Bitcoin as Indicator Flashes GREEN

The distribution of Bitcoin ownership aligns with Satoshi Nakamoto’s original vision of decentralization, ensuring that ordinary people, rather than a concentrated group of institutions, maintain influence over the financial systems that affect their economic well-being.

Bitcoin’s ability to maintain strength above $117,000 during the recent whale selling episode demonstrates such a belief.

The cryptocurrency has now successfully closed above critical bullish territory, completing the CME gap fill at $115,000.

Market momentum is now in the bulls’ control, with Bitcoin’s price trajectory pointing toward a potential rally to $140,000 as the next significant milestone.

Nevertheless, the inherent volatility of cryptocurrency markets demands careful risk management.

The Index Bitcoin Cycle Indicators (IBCI) has entered the Distribution zone after five months, a range historically linked to market euphoria and potential peaks.

Importantly, the index has only reached the lower boundary of this zone at the 80% level, remaining well below the 100% threshold that previously signaled major cycle tops.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: 67% of BTC Still in Individual Hands – What Does This Say About Price Potential?

This suggests that Bitcoin’s targets of $140,000-$150,000 remain achievable, as aggressive profit-taking typically seen at cycle peaks has not yet materialized.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Elliott Wave Points to $131K

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s (BTC/USD) daily chart reveals a developing Elliott Wave pattern, with the asset currently positioned in the early phases of Wave (V).

The preceding waves (i) through (iv) have been completed according to established wave principles.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: 67% of BTC Still in Individual Hands – What Does This Say About Price Potential?

Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating just beneath the 9-day EMA at $118,016.64, which serves as immediate resistance.

The emergence of a bull pennant or flag formation below this resistance level indicates potential for continued bullish momentum toward the projected Wave (V) target around $131,757.

The RSI reading of 66.42 remains below overbought conditions, providing room for additional upward movement.

This New Bitcoin Token Could 10X: $5M Raised

While Bitcoin moves up and down between key price levels, a new project called Bitcoin Hyper is getting a lot of attention.

This project is still in its early funding stage and has already raised over $5 million, showing that many investors believe in it.

So what is Bitcoin Hyper? Think of it as an upgrade to regular Bitcoin.

It’s built on what’s called a “Layer 2” system, basically a newer technology that sits on top of Bitcoin to make it work better.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: 67% of BTC Still in Individual Hands – What Does This Say About Price Potential?

This is the first project of its kind, which is why so many people are interested in buying in early.

Several crypto experts think the $HYPER token could go up 10 times in value from the current price.

Right now, early investors can buy $HYPER tokens for $0.0124 each.

The price will increase as the project progresses through various funding stages, so purchasing early may result in a better deal.


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Crypto Investor’s Wife Kidnapped for Ransom: Court Hands Down 12-Year Sentences https://earlybirdsinvest.com/crypto-investors-wife-kidnapped-for-ransom-court-hands-down-12-year-sentences/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/crypto-investors-wife-kidnapped-for-ransom-court-hands-down-12-year-sentences/#respond Sat, 05 Jul 2025 08:42:13 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/crypto-investors-wife-kidnapped-for-ransom-court-hands-down-12-year-sentences/

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

A court in Belgium has issued 12-year prison sentences to three individuals involved in the December 2024 kidnapping of the wife of a local cryptocurrency entrepreneur.

The case, which has drawn attention within both legal and crypto communities, centers on a ransom demand made in digital assets, highlighting the growing concerns about the intersection of financial technology and physical security.

Court Ruling and Ongoing Investigations

The Brussels Criminal Court found the trio guilty of hostage-taking after abducting the victim outside her residence and forcing her into a van. The kidnappers reportedly demanded a crypto ransom in exchange for her release.

Authorities acted swiftly after the woman’s husband, Stéphane Winkel, a known figure in the local crypto education scene, alerted law enforcement. Police intercepted the vehicle and executed a high-risk maneuver to halt it, freeing the victim and apprehending the suspects.

In addition to the prison terms, the court ordered the convicted individuals to pay a civil compensation of at least €1 million (approximately $1.2 million) to the victim. While the sentences mark the legal conclusion for the three kidnappers, the case remains open in some respects.

The court acknowledged that the principal figures behind the orchestration of the crime are still unknown. The defendants’ claims that they were acting under duress, allegedly threatened with death if they did not carry out the kidnapping, were dismissed by the court.

The case also involves a minor, whose role is being addressed separately through Belgium’s juvenile justice system. According to reports from La Dernière Heure, the court emphasized the seriousness of the offense and the need to maintain deterrence, particularly in criminal activities intersecting with emerging financial sectors like crypto.

The victim and her family have not been named in detail in court documents to protect their privacy, but the psychological toll has reportedly been substantial.

The Effect on Winkel Family and Crypto Community

Stéphane Winkel is known for his educational efforts within the cryptocurrency space. He runs platforms such as Crypto Académie and Crypto Sun, which aim to make digital asset investing more accessible to the public.

His YouTube channel, which has roughly over 39,000 subscribers, typically featured tutorials, giveaways, and wallet walkthroughs. However, the traumatic incident has prompted a shift in both his personal and public life.

In a post on X  published shortly after the incident, Winkel stated, “I consider myself a defender of freedom, but I now realize that safety must become an absolute priority for me and those around me.”

He also pledged to avoid public wallet demonstrations or promotional giveaways going forward, instead focusing his content on market analysis and education.

After several months of silence, Winkel returned to YouTube in June 2025, opting for voice-only narration in his videos rather than appearing on camera, a move that aligns with his new emphasis on privacy and security.

The global crypto market cap valuation on TradingView
The global digital currency market cap valuation. | Source: TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.

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Diamond Hands NFT from TRUMP Event Nets $16,000 Sale https://earlybirdsinvest.com/diamond-hands-nft-from-trump-event-nets-16000-sale/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/diamond-hands-nft-from-trump-event-nets-16000-sale/#respond Wed, 04 Jun 2025 02:22:17 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/diamond-hands-nft-from-trump-event-nets-16000-sale/

One of the non-fungible tokens (NFTs) given out at the TRUMP meme coin dinner has already been resold for about $16,000.

The NFTs were distributed after the event and included a mix of rarities based on the level of involvement each person had with the TRUMP token.

The most common, called “Power to the Holders”, was sent to 1,049 wallets. This included everyone who registered for the dinner, not just those who showed up.

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The “Gold Gala Dinner” version was limited to 219 people who attended the event. The rarest of the group, “Diamond Hands,” went to 118 wallets belonging to people who kept their tokens throughout the entire event.

The official TRUMP meme coin account on X described these NFTs as items meant to mark the moment and recognize those involved.

Morten Christensen, founder of AirdropAlert, was one of the people who qualified for the dinner.

He bought a large amount of TRUMP tokens on the spot market but also shorted the same amount elsewhere to avoid price swings. He later sold his tokens before the dinner, which made him ineligible for the Diamond Hands NFT.

That decision might have cost him. A Diamond Hands NFT sold on June 2 for 99.9 SOL
SOL


$156.57

, equivalent to about $16,000.

Meanwhile, Nicholas Pinto, a TikTok user who spent around $300,000 on the meme coin, recently shared his experience at the dinner. What did he say? Read the full story.

Having completed a Master’s degree in Economics, Politics, and Cultures of the East Asia region, Aaron has written scientific papers analyzing the differences between Western and Collective forms of capitalism in the post-World War II era.
With close to a decade of experience in the FinTech industry, Aaron understands all of the biggest issues and struggles that crypto enthusiasts face. He’s a passionate analyst who is concerned with data-driven and fact-based content, as well as that which speaks to both Web3 natives and industry newcomers.
Aaron is the go-to person for everything and anything related to digital currencies. With a huge passion for blockchain & Web3 education, Aaron strives to transform the space as we know it, and make it more approachable to complete beginners.
Aaron has been quoted by multiple established outlets, and is a published author himself. Even during his free time, he enjoys researching the market trends, and looking for the next supernova.


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Ethereum Poised For A 5-Figure Breakout – Volatility Is Shaking ‘Weak Hands’ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ethereum-poised-for-a-5-figure-breakout-volatility-is-shaking-weak-hands/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ethereum-poised-for-a-5-figure-breakout-volatility-is-shaking-weak-hands/#respond Mon, 02 Jun 2025 16:01:30 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ethereum-poised-for-a-5-figure-breakout-volatility-is-shaking-weak-hands/

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Este artículo también está disponible en español.

Ethereum is trading just below the $2,500 mark, struggling to reclaim higher ground as bearish momentum picks up across the broader crypto market. After repeated failed attempts to break past resistance, ETH now sits under heavy selling pressure, raising concerns about a deeper correction. Bulls appear to be losing control as overall market sentiment weakens amid global economic uncertainty and the persistent weight of rising US Treasury yields. Some market participants are now bracing for a significant downturn if Ethereum fails to hold above key demand zones.

Related Reading

However, not everyone is turning bearish. Some prominent analysts maintain a highly bullish long-term view, arguing that Ethereum still has significant upside this cycle. According to Ted Pillows, Ethereum could reach $10,000 before the cycle ends. From his perspective, current price action represents a temporary dip rather than a trend reversal, and accumulating during weakness is the smarter move for long-term investors.

While short-term uncertainty dominates headlines, long-term conviction remains strong among Ethereum supporters who point to rising institutional interest, declining exchange supply, and the overall maturing of the Ethereum ecosystem as reasons to stay optimistic. For now, ETH’s position just under $2,500 sets the stage for a critical test in the days ahead.

Ethereum Analysts Eye Breakout Potential

Ethereum is currently testing a crucial support level at $2,500 after repeatedly reaching the $2,700 resistance over the past few weeks. This zone has proven difficult to break, but bulls are still holding the line. If ETH manages to reclaim the upper range and close above it, analysts believe it could ignite the altseason the market has been waiting for.

Despite Ethereum’s underperformance over the past year, marked by a lack of sustained momentum and significant selling pressure, the recent price action suggests a shift. Over the past few weeks, ETH has entered a more bullish phase, supported by increasing on-chain activity and stronger demand.

Some analysts remain firmly bullish. Ted Pillows, for example, has projected that Ethereum is headed above $10,000 this cycle. While short-term volatility may cause concern, long-term conviction remains strong. For many investors, the message is clear: embrace the dips, accumulate strategically, and avoid panic selling.

Ethereum prepares for a massive run | Source: Ted Pillows on X
Ethereum prepares for a massive run | Source: Ted Pillows on X

Technical sentiment across the board is turning cautiously optimistic. Market watchers point to Ethereum’s resilience at the $2,500 level as a sign of building strength. If this support holds and bulls step in with volume, the breakout above $2,700 could be swift and aggressive.

Related Reading

ETH Tests Key Support As Bulls Defend $2,500

Ethereum is currently trading around $2,488 after a 2% daily drop, showing continued weakness below the crucial $2,700 resistance zone. The chart highlights a clear consolidation range forming since early May, with ETH repeatedly failing to close above the 200-day SMA, currently around $2,680. This long-term moving average is acting as a significant barrier, preventing any breakout momentum from gaining traction.

ETH testing demand in tight range | Source: ETHUSDT chart on TradingView
ETH testing demand in a tight range | Source: ETHUSDT chart on TradingView

Support remains at the lower boundary of the range near $2,470–$2,500, where buyers have consistently stepped in to absorb selling pressure. This area coincides with the 34-day EMA at $2,386 and the 100-day SMA just below current levels, forming a dense cluster of technical support.

However, volume has been declining, suggesting that neither bulls nor bears have clear control. If Ethereum loses the $2,470 level decisively, the next key area to watch lies near $2,300, where the 50-day SMA could act as a cushion.

Related Reading

Conversely, reclaiming $2,700 with strength could signal the beginning of a larger move to the upside. Until then, ETH remains stuck in a range, and traders will be watching closely for a decisive break—up or down to define Ethereum’s next major trend.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin Diamond Hands Are Buying Again, Here’s Why It’s Bullish For The Market https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-diamond-hands-are-buying-again-heres-why-its-bullish-for-the-market/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-diamond-hands-are-buying-again-heres-why-its-bullish-for-the-market/#respond Thu, 29 May 2025 02:09:50 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-diamond-hands-are-buying-again-heres-why-its-bullish-for-the-market/

Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed

The highest standards in reporting and publishing

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

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Este artículo también está disponible en español.

Bitcoin has spent the last five days trading within a relatively narrow range between $106,229 and $111,807, following its recent all-time high of $111,814. Despite the increase in selling pressure from miners after the all-time high, the price of Bitcoin has managed to hold above $108,000, with on-chain data showing Bitcoin diamond hands absorbing all the selling pressure.

Long-Term Holders Accumulating With Minimal Spending

According to data from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Spending Binary Indicator has fallen to its lowest level since September 2024. This interesting trend was initially noted on the social media platform X by crypto analyst Alex Adler Jr.

Related Reading

The 15-day moving average of this metric, as shown in the chart by CryptoQuant, has dropped to the minimal spending zone. Notably, this zone has consistently preceded a more bullish move in the Bitcoin price. 

Bitcoin
Source: Axel Adler Jr on X

In parallel, long-term holder supply has risen by approximately 300,000 BTC over the past 20 days. This marks a deviation from the trend of declines in the long-term holder supply since 2024. At the time of writing, 14.6 million BTC, representing about 74% of the total current circulating supply of BTC, is in addresses classified as long-term holders. 

This pattern suggests that so-called “diamond hands”, i.e., investors with a strong conviction who hold through volatility, are not only refraining from selling with Bitcoin’s recent new peak, but are actively accumulating. The chart below shows the correlation between minimal LTH spending and rising price action, a behavior that also aligned with phases of Bitcoin’s uptrend in 2019, late 2020, and late 2024.

Why It’s Bullish For The Market

The significant uptick in long-term holder supply, combined with minimal selling activity, reveals a hidden strength in the market. The current behavior of long-term investors also indicates their confidence in Bitcoin’s valuation at current levels, despite the recent price surge. Many of these long-term holders are in substantial profit, yet still choose to hold. This is unlike short-term holders, who have collectively realized over $11.6 billion in profits over the past month alone.

Related Reading

Drawing a parallel with historical data, the current decline in long-term holder (LTH) spending mirrors a similar pattern observed in September 2024. At that time, the LTH Indicator was in the minimal zone, and the long-term holder supply was also increasing steadily.

What followed was a remarkable 96% surge in Bitcoin’s price, rising from approximately $54,000 to peaks around $106,000 in December and January. If the market were to follow a similar trajectory from the current price level, a comparable 96% rally would see Bitcoin rise to a new peak near $212,000.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $109,000.

Bitcoin
BTC trading at $108,723 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

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Is Bitcoin's future in Strategy’s hands? https://earlybirdsinvest.com/is-bitcoins-future-in-strategys-hands/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/is-bitcoins-future-in-strategys-hands/#respond Tue, 29 Apr 2025 18:13:21 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/is-bitcoins-future-in-strategys-hands/

Plus: Your next favorite radio host is actually AI

Welcome

GM. We juiced the news, sliced the charts, and garnished it with just enough sarcasm to keep it digestible. Sip responsibly.

🟠 Is Strategy gonna control Bitcoin?

🍋 News drops: the reason celebrities avoid Bitcoin, AI radio host + more

Divider

🍍 Market flavor today

Not much has changed since we last caught up on Friday – the Fear and Greed Index has been switching between Neutral and Greed, and Bitcoin’s been hanging out in the $92K-$96K range.

Basically, things remain pretty chill.

There are a few reasons for the chill vibes:

  • US-China trade tensions cooled off a little after Donald Trump said tariffs on Chinese goods – currently at 145% – could be reduced if a trade deal is reached;

  • It was a big week for BTC ETFs – they had over $3B in inflows;

  • Also helping: the Fed eased up on strict crypto rules, making it easier for Wall Street firms to invest in crypto;

  • And let’s not forget – public companies keep buying (Strategy bought $1.42B worth of BTC just yesterday).

Cat thumbs up

But – and there’s always a but – this week’s loaded with US macroeconomic reports, and they could mess with the market’s chill mood. Here’s what’s on the menu:

Today: CB Consumer Confidence numbers (basically asking, “Hey, how’s everyone feeling about life right now?”) and March JOLTs Job data (aka, “Were there actually jobs to be had in March?”).

Tomorrow: Q1 2025 GDP numbers (did the economy grow in the first months of 2025?) and March PCE Inflation data (how much more painful it got to buy everyday stuff – a stat the Fed loves).

Friday: April Jobs Report (tracking how many jobs got added, unemployment rates, how much people are getting paid, and how many hours they’re working).

Whenever we get a week stuffed with data like this, traders usually freak out a little – either they reduce risk or make bigger bets, depending on how the numbers turn out.

And since markets have already been a bit of a hot mess this April, it’s looking way more likely that everyone will play it safe.

In other words: expect Bitcoin to stay in the same ole chill range for a while.

Divider

🥝 Memecoin harvest

Their community? Two Discord mods and a dream. Their gains? Disrespectful.

Data as of 06:00 AM EST.

Check out these memecoins and plenty more here.

Divider

Most people see Bitcoin’s supply as untouchable – 21 million coins, predictable halvings every four years. No one can mess with that.

… Well, about that….

Adam Livingston, author of The Bitcoin Age and The Great Harvest, says that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is rewriting Bitcoin’s scarcity.

Michael Saylor and BTC

After the 2024 halving, Bitcoin miners are producing about 450 new BTC every day – around 13.5K BTC each month.

But Strategy has been soaking up more and more of that monthly supply.

(Like we mentioned in today’s market update, they bought over 15K just yesterday – more than a whole month’s worth of mining output.)

If they keep buying 30%, 40%, or even 50%+ of all newly mined Bitcoin, they’re artificially squeezing the available supply – basically, making it feel like it already got cut in half without waiting for the next real halving.

Livingston calls this a “synthetic halving” – not triggered by the Bitcoin protocol, but by relentless corporate buying.

And he says this changes a lot:

  • Bitcoin could get way more expensive, faster than anyone expects;

  • Lending Bitcoin would cost more;

  • Borrowing Bitcoin becomes something only sovereign wealth funds, mega-corporations, or serious institutions can afford.

Livingston argues that Strategy could control the bottleneck and set the global cost of Bitcoin capital – meaning everyone could be paying higher rates simply because Saylor owns the float. Instead of Bitcoin’s natural market dynamics setting prices, a single corporate superpower would influence it through strategic hoarding.

Looking at phone shocked

Now, to be fair: he’s definitely right that Strategy is eating up supply like crazy, and it does feel a lot like a halving.

But saying they’ll fully control the price of Bitcoin feels like a bit of a reach.

They aren’t changing the Bitcoin code. Miners are still adding new coins at the same pace. Plus, Strategy’s spending spree depends on cheap debt, good markets, and no major competitors stepping in – none of which are guaranteed forever.

Also, they’re funding a lot of this buying with debt and equity dilution, which isn’t something you can do endlessly, especially if Bitcoin’s price ever tanks.

Long-term, it’s unlikely that one company ends up completely dominating Bitcoin.

ETFs, countries, miners, DeFi apps, and corporate treasuries are all buying BTC too. Even if Strategy is a whale now, their influence could get diluted over time as Bitcoin adoption grows globally.

That said, Livingston’s main point still hits hard: Bitcoin scarcity isn’t just about the blockchain anymore. It’s about who has the balance sheet to control the float.

And right now, no one’s swinging a bigger hammer than Michael Saylor.

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🍋 News drops

🤔 Why aren’t celebs getting into Bitcoin? TJ Miller says they’re just too lazy to learn about it.

🤝 Loopscale, a DeFi platform, is in talks with the hackers who stole from them. The hackers took about 5.7M USDC and 1.2K SOL from two of their vaults – and now they want 20% of it as a bounty to return the rest.

✉ Coinbase is asking the US Office of Government Ethics to scrap a rule that blocks SEC staff from owning or using crypto. Coinbase CLO Paul Grewal said, “To regulate technology, you need to understand it. To understand technology, you need to use it.”

🗣 Custodia Bank CEO Caitlin Long is calling out the Fed. She said that while they canceled four old guidelines, they left one big one: banks still can’t work directly with crypto or create stablecoins on open blockchains. Instead, the Fed favors stablecoins made by big banks in private systems.

🎙 Your fave radio host might actually be AI… and if you listen to Thy from CADA radio in Sydney, it’s not a “maybe” – she is AI.

🎉 Changelly is throwing a 10-year anniversary party with a $100K+ prize pool! Open the Changelly app, sign up or log in, get a free spin (plus another if you make a transaction), and see what you won.*

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🍌 Juicy memes

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Bitcoin under $60 says Cryptohedge Fund Manager for Hot Hands https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-under-60-says-cryptohedge-fund-manager-for-hot-hands/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-under-60-says-cryptohedge-fund-manager-for-hot-hands/#respond Tue, 01 Apr 2025 04:12:29 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-under-60-says-cryptohedge-fund-manager-for-hot-hands/

Bitcoin fixes may have begun. In fact, the entire crypto sector may be facing a serious downtrend reminiscent of 2022.

“We were able to see them return to five handles by the end of the year,” Quinn Thompson, founder of Crypto Hedge Fund Lekker Capital, told Coindesk in an interview. The “five handles,” or priced at $50,000 to $59,999, is down significantly from the already volatile current $83,000, which has dropped by about 50% from Bitcoin peak just over $109,000 more than two months ago.

“I don’t think that’s going to happen anytime soon, so it’s very unstable about the current market situation and it’s a very painful and shocking reason for people because there’s a big liquidation and crash,” Thompson added. “This kind of different market environment, and slow grinddowns are like, “Is it finished? Is there a bottom?”

Bearish from a much higher level, Thompson repeatedly called out the White House crypto announcements — whether it’s a sovereign wealth fund or a strategic Bitcoin reserve, or in between, or a “Nothingburgers” and “Sell the News” event. He also argues that Strategic (MSTR)’s constant Bitcoin purchases are not necessarily bullish for cryptocurrencies as they appear to be the only important bid.

Four economic headwinds

At the heart of Thompson’s paper is the idea that various Trump administration policies are likely to hurt the economy for the next six to nine months.

First, in efforts to reduce the US deficit, government efficiency (DOGE) depends on reducing government spending, one of the biggest drivers of job growth in recent years. The labor market has already wobbled when the Biden team handed over the reins to Trump, Thompson said, and the new government’s fiscal forces are no longer interested in supporting things.

“People get caught up in that politics,” Thompson said. “We can oppose whether we need the Ministry of Education or not, but those dollars were printed and in people’s pockets, and those people spent them, going to the holidays and grocery stores.

Doge’s main force, Elon Musk, said last week it aims to cut government spending by the end of May. He also said he wants to cut 15% of government annual spending, meaning nearly $7 trillion.

Even if Doge fails to a designated target and can cut 10 billion over four years, for example, in four years, Thompson argued that there is a high chance that major cuts will occur at the beginning of Trump’s term. This means that Doge’s impact on the economy and consumer sentiment will likely be felt in the coming months, regardless of whether the institution has actually succeeded or not.

Second, the crackdown on illegal immigration at the tropical border and the new focus on deportation is expected to affect the labor market, Thompson said. Immigrants are putting pressure on wages, which means they are positive for growth. If that labor pool is dry, workers will demand a higher salary, but some companies cannot afford it.

Thompson’s third issue is customs. The Trump administration continues to change tariff threats on a daily basis, sometimes promises new ones, sometimes abort them, and raises doubts about whether a majority of the proposed tariffs will actually come into effect. However, the key to tariffs is that they create uncertainty for businesses and may choose to delay investment and employment decisions until the tariff situation is resolved.

Finally, the Federal Reserve does not seem to be in a hurry to relax its financial position due to the lack of inflation data. The US Central Bank rose to 4.25%-4.5% at the end of 2024, and even that wasn’t enough to push Bitcoin over $110,000. Thompson says he hopes the Fed will cut 25-75 basis points in 2025, but that those cuts will spread later this year.

“I think there’s a lot more adjustments going on than people want to believe,” Thompson said. “People thought Trump and (Fed Chairman) Powell were having an argument, but it’s actually like they’re on the same team right now.

When is the bottom?

Thompson said the crypto sector is unlikely to have a good year as these headwinds oppose risk-on assets such as stocks and Bitcoin. He said the fact that the White House does not seem to be overly concerned about a potential recession is also a strong signal.

“Best has come saying, ‘We need to straighten the ship.’ And correcting the ship means shutting off the juice that works these crazy asset prices.

But how long is Trump likely to keep the course? It got so painful that even Trump’s political foundation told him to cut it off, or until the beginning of 2026 – you can’t push the country into a recession with a medium-term election coming.

“I identify with this with a controlled burn. They’re intentionally trying to clear the brush so that it doesn’t become a bigger problem, but sometimes a controlled burn becomes a bushfire,” Thompson said. “I think it’s going to be a long kind of throw throughout the year as we’re trying to put these policies into place.”

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WLFI’s $550 Million Surge Hands Donald Trump a $390 Million Payday https://earlybirdsinvest.com/wlfis-550-million-surge-hands-donald-trump-a-390-million-payday/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/wlfis-550-million-surge-hands-donald-trump-a-390-million-payday/#respond Wed, 19 Mar 2025 02:44:45 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/wlfis-550-million-surge-hands-donald-trump-a-390-million-payday/

US President Donald Trump and his business partners at DT Marks DEFI LLC have earned about $390 million from their involvement in the Ethereum
ETH


$1,922.53

-based project, World Liberty Financial (WLFI).

Initially, the project struggled to attract buyers. When WLFI launched token sales in October 2024, only $15 million worth of WLFI tokens had been sold—far short of its $300 million goal. However, interest grew over time, which allowed the project to surpass half a billion in sales.

The company completed its second round of token sales on March 17, which brought total revenue from WLFI, its governance token, to $550 million.

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According to the project’s financial documents, President Trump and his partners receive 75% of net revenue after expenses, which includes earnings from token sales.

Out of the total raised, $30 million has been set aside for operational costs and other obligations. The remaining amount is then divided, with President Trump’s group receiving the majority share. The project’s documents specify that his compensation is for occasional promotions and the use of his name and image.

It is unclear who else benefits from these payments. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings show that DT Marks DEFI LLC, the entity tied to President Trump in this agreement, operates from the same address as his company’s offices in Florida.

Meanwhile, buyers of President Trump’s official merchandise or digital collectibles can claim the Official Trump (TRUMP) token giveaway. What did the team behind the project say about it? Read the full story.

Having completed a Master’s degree in Economics, Politics, and Cultures of the East Asia region, Aaron has written scientific papers analyzing the differences between Western and Collective forms of capitalism in the post-World War II era.
With close to a decade of experience in the FinTech industry, Aaron understands all of the biggest issues and struggles that crypto enthusiasts face. He’s a passionate analyst who is concerned with data-driven and fact-based content, as well as that which speaks to both Web3 natives and industry newcomers.
Aaron is the go-to person for everything and anything related to digital currencies. With a huge passion for blockchain & Web3 education, Aaron strives to transform the space as we know it, and make it more approachable to complete beginners.
Aaron has been quoted by multiple established outlets, and is a published author himself. Even during his free time, he enjoys researching the market trends, and looking for the next supernova.


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