Macro guru Luke Gromen says the rise of Bitcoin (BTC) treasury companies is a logical response to the US government’s continued debasement of the dollar.

In a new video update on YouTube, Gromen says investors are currently reacting to a large-scale financial bubble that has been “kicked upstairs” through the stock, banking, and housing markets before finally being pushed into the Treasury market.

Gromen notes that the only way for the US government to maintain the bubble – rather than face a default or a severe depression to get its fiscal situation back in order – is to devalue its debt via inflation.

Now that such a reality is becoming clear to market participants, Gromen says it makes perfect sense that many corporate entities are creating shareholder value by taking advantage of BTC’s strict supply cap.

“In my opinion, it’s critical to remember how we got here. We had an equity bubble, it popped, we kicked the problem upstairs to the banking sector and the housing sector, it created a housing bubble, it popped, we kicked the problem upstairs to the Treasury market by backstopping virtually everything… 

Now the credit risk is at the Treasury market level, except, Treasuries have no credit risk. The government can always just print the money to make interest payments and avoid default. So there’s no credit risk in Treasuries, only inflation risk. 

So in my opinion, what we’re seeing in Bitcoin treasury companies in particular is logical, in light of this primrose path we’ve followed over the past 25 years. As more and more people begin to realize the only way out of this is severe devaluation of US debt, of US sovereign debt, of Western sovereign debt.

In that case, I would expect credit spreads to remain relatively low, because all else equal, I’d rather own an Apple bond or a Microsoft bond than a US Treasury bond.”

At time of writing, the US government’s national debt is about $37 trillion.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Macro strategist Luke Gromen warns that the US dollar will keep losing value amid a ballooning $36.60 trillion national debt.

In a new YouTube update, Gromen says the US, with its record-level national debt, is now forced to choose between sacrificing the bond market or letting the dollar fall to maintain financial and economic stability.

According to the macro expert, the US government will ultimately resort to debasing the dollar by printing more money to manage its debt, rather than allowing Treasury yields to soar in an effort to attract investors.

“What we’re seeing in these bond markets, US and more importantly for the moment Japan and the UK, is a choice. You got to sacrifice your currency or you to sacrifice your bond market. And our view, really the base underpinning of our view why gold and Bitcoin are trading where they are trading, is they always choose to sacrifice the currency…

Because if they sacrifice the bond market and let rates just go up and up and up, given their debt levels, they ultimately end up sacrificing both: the currency and the bond market because higher rates drive receipts down and interest up and that means interest quickly goes above your receipts.

And when that happens, that drives essentially hyperinflation of the currency. Either they can’t pay the bonds and the bonds back the currency or more likely, they print the money just to pay the interest and drive a version of hyperinflation.

So they always choose to sacrifice the currency over sacrificing the bond market when debt levels are high as they are and that’s why, because sacrificing the bond market only buys them a little bit of time, and they ultimately end up sacrificing both.”
 

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Popular macroeconomics expert Lyn Alden isn’t sold on Bitcoin’s (BTC) functionality as a medium of exchange yet.

Alden explains in a new analysis that people with specific payment issues like capital controls and payment de-platforming find BTC useful, but they can often also use less-volatile stablecoins as short-term solutions to those same problems.

“There are some very well-meaning Bitcoin proponents trying to convince Bitcoin holders to spend it more. I don’t particularly view that as a sustainable practice. Bitcoin is not going to catch on as a charity. In order for spending it to catch on persistently at scale (i.e. not just billions of dollar-equivalents in annual global medium-of-exchange volume, but trillions), it has to solve problems for spenders and/or recipients that other solutions are not doing. And at this stage of adoption, that’s not necessarily the case, especially with capital gains taxes applicable to every single transaction and with options like stablecoins for near-term spending needs where volatility needs to be low.”

Alden says Bitcoin instead has value due to its “optionality.”

“Owning a sound, liquid, fungible, portable store of value that is going through its adoption phase gives the owner some perks, or options, that other assets do not. Mainly, they can bring their store of value wherever they want in the world without relying on central counterparties and credit. It also allows them to make crossborder payments, including to deplatformed recipients, through substantial friction even if they are staying put where they are. They might not be able to ubiquitously pay with it, but if need be they can find ways to convert it to local currency in most environments that they find themselves in, and in some cases can indeed pay with it directly.”

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Macro guru Lyn Alden says that one traditional asset class is looking more promising than most are giving it credit for.

In a new interview with Jimmy Conor, Alden says she’s expecting more or less “stagnant” markets in the near future.

However, Alden says there will be “pockets of opportunity” – one of which is US financials, which she says she’s bullish on.

“I think that’s kind of the phase we’re entering, so that’s why I expect a generally more stagnant market with pockets of opportunity. I’m public that I’m actually bullish on US financials at the current time.

Ironically, as the US enters a slow-motion fiscal crisis, one of the winning sides is the private sector financials because everybody is fighting the last battle of what banks are going to be in trouble, or are we going to have a big credit event… 

I think that the biggest one is on the sovereign level, and that tends to be pretty decent for the private entities in the ecosystem…

Basically, this gets taken out in terms of fiscal dominance, running things hot for a long period of time, taking it out on the currency rather than through major private sector deleveraging. So I think right now US banks on average are pretty cheap and they’re pretty well capitalized, so outside of certain rare pockets, I’m pretty bullish on US financials and US banks in particular.

No one’s really interested in buying them right now, but I find them interesting. It’s not the only asset I’d own, but I’m a lot less bearish on them than the market seems to think.”

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Former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal believes that Bitcoin (BTC) will rally in the coming months on the back of a weakening US dollar.

Pal tells his 1.1 million followers on the social media platform X that he thinks policymakers will methodically debase the US dollar to manage debt payments.

According to Pal, the dollar debasement will trigger a surge in global money supply and benefit risk assets like Bitcoin and crypto.

“Everyone needs and wants a weaker dollar to service their dollar debts. No one wants it to move too fast (it blows up value at risk), but they need it lower over the next 12 months. This is the purest form of global liquidity and is the largest driver of global M2 currently. The US knows this too and is a key part of trade negotiations, especially with China.”

To support his bullish stance on Bitcoin, the macro guru says that total global liquidity has an 87% correlation with BTC. He also points out that Bitcoin rallied hard five years ago due to currency debasement.

“See 2020 for details. Recession and rising liquidity = stronger BTC.”

Pal shares a chart showing that Bitcoin tends to follow the rise and fall of global liquidity, with the latter having a 12-week lead.

“Maybe, just maybe, it was this easy all along.

IF this works, it will definitively prove that liquidity is THE dominant factor still in markets. Not tariffs. Not politics, Not rates. Not (insert your narrative).”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $93,570. Meanwhile, the US national debt stands at $36.214 trillion.

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Former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal believes that one Solana (SOL) competitor looks to be in a position for a massive breakout.

Pal tells his 1.1 million followers on the social media platform X that the Tom DeMark (TD) Sequential Indicator is flashing bullish for the layer-1 platform Sui (SUI).

Traders use the TD Sequential Indicator to predict potential trend reversals for tokens based on the closing prices of their previous nine or 13 bars or candles.

He also suggests that SUI is on the verge of breaking out of a downward channel, a bearish pattern indicating that the asset is forming lower highs and lower lows.

“Sui: knock, knocking, knocking on heaven’s door.”

Other analysts are also suggesting SUI may be gearing up for an explosive move.

Pseudonymous trader Cheds says if SUI can break through its immediate resistance, it may start printing significant rallies.

“$2.50 overhead is a long trigger.”

Meanwhile, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe tells his 783,900 followers on the social media platform X that Sui is gaining adoption as a decentralized finance (DeFi) network, including for Bitcoin (BTC) staking and lending, referred to as Bitcoin DeFi (BTCfi). He also suggests SUI is bouncing off a key support level on the three-day chart.

“Once the markets are turning back into an uptrend, the money will flow back into the ones that have shown strength. SUI is one of them. It’s a great spot to investigate SUI:

• BTCFi is quickly growing fast as 10% of TVL (Total Value Locked) going through SUI.
• DeFi on SUI is in the top six of all chains.
• Nearly $6 billion in trading volume on DeFi in the past month.

I think it can do really well in the upcoming cycle.”

Lastly, the financial giant VanEck predicted SUI will soar more than 358% from its current value.

“We believe the crypto bull market will persist through 2025, reaching its first peak in the first quarter. At the cycle’s apex, we project Bitcoin to be valued at around $180,000, with Ethereum (ETH) trading above $6,000. Other prominent projects, such as Solana and Sui, could exceed $500 and $10, respectively.”

SUI is trading for $2.18 at time of writing, up 4% in the last 24 hours.

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Investor Luke Gromen says that Bitcoin (BTC) may catch a boost from gold if the precious metal usurps US Treasuries to become the preferred settlement asset.

In a new video update, Gromen says that if the White House truly wants to reshore American manufacturing as stated, the US will have to learn to stop or at least slow down the exporting of the dollar and Treasuries.

To achieve the current administration’s goal, the macro guru says the White House could allow gold to become the primary settlement asset instead of the dollar or Treasuries.

A settlement asset is a financial instrument used by central banks and governments to settle a trade or monetary obligation.

Gromen also says that if gold becomes the new settlement asset, investors might start to see Bitcoin as a reliable alternative.

Explains Gromen,

“We can export Treasuries and financial assets, or we can make stuff, but if we want to make stuff, that’s the end of the post-1971 US dollar reserve status structure. And it’s an underappreciated point.

The way you get around it is you shift the settlement asset away from Treasuries to a neutral reserve asset like gold. I think that process has been started.

I thought it was extraordinarily interesting and potentially important that Trump did not put tariffs on gold. He put tariffs on everything else in the world, including an island full of penguins, apparently, but not gold, which tells me that’s where we want capital to go, and that’ll weaken the dollar which, guess what, if gold goes up a bunch, it’ll strengthen the dollar system because it’l be more gold-backed and you’re going to weaken the dollar. That’s how you split the baby around Triffin’s Dilemma and a neutral reserve asset.

I think Bitcoin probably benefits over time from that, too.”

The Triffin’s Dilemma is a concept established by economist Robert Triffin that notes a paradox between the need of the United States to run trade deficits to supply the world with enough USD, while keeping inflation and confidence in the currency at reasonable levels.

At time if writing, Bitcoin is trading for $84,603.

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Macro investor Luke Gromen says that the White House may have caused a massive change in the way that Bitcoin (BTC) trades.

In a new interview with Natalie Brunell on the Coin Stories podcast, Gromen calls attention to the America First Investment Policy, a memo released by the Trump Administration in February that aims to make the US foreign investment policies more cautious and conscious of national security.

Gromen, the founder of the macroeconomic research firm Forest for the Trees (FFTT), says that the memo essentially directs China to “take your money and go home, we don’t want it here anymore.”

With all of the foreign capital invested in US markets, Gromen says the Nasdaq index will likely suffer capital outflows while Bitcoin – as a neutral global asset essentially exempt from tariffs or political agendas – will shine, breaking the correlation between the two assets.

“That, I think will ultimately be a catalyst to the separation of Bitcoin and Nasdaq, and that, I think, is starting to drive Nasdaq down – it has a long way to go because multiples are high – and in the short run, traders control the flows…

Bitcoin is levered Nasdaq, I get it; it’s a high-beta Nasdaq, in the short run. If you back up to a five-year or ten-year chart, you can see very clearly these periods where Bitcoin has massively outperformed Nasdaq, but they still tend to go directionally similarly, when Bitcoin’s up Nasdaq’s up and vice versa…

The America First Investment Policy memo, I think, will start to break that correlation because I think right now in the short run, that correlation is holding, [but] at some point I think capital flow is going to see Bitcoin for what it is which is a neutral reserve asset linked to energy, uncontrollable by any govenment and I think it’ll start siphoning some flows off from Nasdaq as America continues to say, ‘Listen, you want to invest in some factories here? Great, otherwise, get out.’ 

And that’s a lot of capital that’s got to get out, and we’re seeing gold benefit already. I think what we’re seeing in gold is a precursor to what we’ll see in Bitcoin.”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is worth $83,233.

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Popular macroeconomics expert Lyn Alden believes that the current Bitcoin (BTC) correction is similar to the one witnessed in March 2024 based on one key on-chain metric.

In a new interview on The Your Life! Your Terms! YouTube channel, Alden says she’s keeping a close watch on Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) metric, an on-chain indicator that helps assess whether BTC is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its market cap (market value) to the average price at which all coins were last moved (realized value).

The macro guru explains that during the initial stages of a bull market, Bitcoin’s market cap tends to soar, while its average cost basis lags as early investors hold on to their coins in anticipation of more rallies, resulting in a higher MVRV value.

Alden says that when the MVRV soars to extreme levels, it drives more long-term investors to unload their holdings, which can signal the start of a multi-year bear market.

For now, the macro expert says the metric is still within its usual bull market range, leading her to believe that BTC can still soar to greater heights.

“When you see more and more coins at those higher price levels, it helps lower that ratio because basically the average cost basis is catching up to some extent with that wild explosion in market cap.

So what I generally point out is that we’ve not really seen extremes yet this year. Back in March 2024, when we broke out to new all-time highs for the first time in a couple of years, Bitcoin hit $73,000. That metric got a little bit euphoric, but nothing like a multi-year top historically has been. And so we saw a seven-month consolidation, but nothing really worse than that. 

Similarly, when Bitcoin hit $108,000 more recently, that metric got a little bit overdone, but again, it wasn’t those multi-year dislocations that we normally see. 

For me, I’m more on the lookout for probabilities of breaking out versus breaking down. And so my view is that there’s still a higher probability of breaking up and to say that, I don’t think we’re set for a multi-year bear market until we probably reach higher prices.”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $81,357.

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