Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Ethereum surged past $2,600 in early Asia hours, up 3.7%, breaking decisively above its previous resistance level of around $2,500 following a prolonged consolidation period, according to CoinDesk Research’s AI-assisted technical analysis model.

The rally is supported by robust trading volume and significant institutional confidence, underscored by $248 million in net inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs last week, led prominently by BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust. DeFi activity is also strengthening, with Ethereum’s total value locked (TVL) rising 3.59% over the last 24 hours to $64.37 billion, according to DeFi Llama.

However, the rally faces potential headwinds. Ethereum’s active addresses currently sit at 406,180, nearly flat compared to approximately 430,000 addresses one year ago, indicating muted user growth.

Additionally, stablecoin flows reveal mixed signals; traditional stalwarts USDT and USDC remain relatively flat, while emerging stablecoins such as Ethena’s USDe and BUIDL demonstrate stronger growth trends, signaling shifts within Ethereum’s broader stablecoin ecosystem. Despite bullish momentum and strong institutional backing, subdued retail investor participation and tepid user growth suggest this rally could face near-term constraints.

Bitcoin Soars While Luxury Watches Stall: A Pandemic-Era Correlation Breaks Down

Bitcoin (BTC) and luxury watches, once pandemic-era companions buoyed by stimulus and speculative exuberance, have sharply diverged over the past year, market data shows, with BTC surging 56.9%, according to CoinDesk market data, while WatchCharts.com luxury watch index fell by 4%.

As recently as mid-2023, prices for bitcoin and luxury watches moved closely in tandem, buoyed by central banks and governments injecting substantial liquidity into global markets. However, the two have since taken distinctly different paths.

OKX Global Chief Commercial Officer Lennix Lai attributes Bitcoin’s sustained upward trajectory to increased institutional adoption and maturation as a credible asset.

In contrast, the secondary market for luxury watches has cooled significantly from its pandemic peak. “The real collectors stayed in watches while speculators moved on, and bitcoin has matured to take its place in many investors’ portfolios,” Lai said. “Watches make great heirlooms, but I’ll take Bitcoin any day as a generational asset. You can’t lose it, scratch it during a move, or have it stolen, as long as you keep your seed phrase secure.”

Yet, in recent months, the luxury watch market has shown early signs of a modest recovery, posting a 0.3% gain over the last three months.

Jake Plonskier, founder of Watches.io, credits this rebound to external economic pressures rather than renewed crypto-driven speculation. He notes rising tariffs and surging gold prices as key catalysts.

“Gold and silver are decent proxies for the watch market,” Plonskier explained, highlighting Rolex’s January decision to raise MSRP by 14% for its gold models.

He added that crypto’s lasting impact on luxury watches is primarily demographic: “Crypto wealth introduced a whole new market that can afford watches. Now men under 30 can afford Pateks and APs, which traditionally never would have been purchased by this type of clientele.”

Circle Prepares for IPO Filing

Circle Internet Group, the issuer of stablecoin USDC, has filed for an initial public offering (IPO) on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker “CRCL,” aiming to sell 24 million class A shares priced between $24 and $26 each, CoinDesk previously reported.

The company itself will offer 9.6 million shares, potentially raising nearly $250 million, while selling stakeholders are providing an additional 14.4 million shares, possibly earning close to $375 million.

Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment has indicated interest in purchasing $150 million worth of shares during the IPO, which is being managed by joint lead active bookrunners J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs.

The IPO filing follows previous unsuccessful attempts, including a failed SPAC deal in 2021 and a brief consideration of a $5 billion sale to firms such as Coinbase or Ripple.

Marathon Digital CEO Says U.S. Government Should Mine BTC

Marathon Digital CEO Fred Thiel urged the U.S. government to start actively mining bitcoin to fulfill President Trump’s directive for a strategic bitcoin reserve, suggesting excess hydroelectricity could support domestic mining operations, CoinDesk previously reported.

Speaking at Bitcoin 2025, Thiel emphasized the necessity of tangible steps beyond the current plan of using approximately 200,000 seized bitcoins from government forfeitures. Senator Cynthia Lummis supports this broader vision through her proposed BITCOIN Act, advocating for converting underperforming government gold certificates into bitcoin to expand the reserve substantially.

However, Lummis acknowledges significant legislative hurdles remain, citing a general lack of congressional understanding about bitcoin and competing priorities such as stablecoin and market structure regulations.

Market Movements:

• BTC: Bitcoin bounced back strongly from a correction to $107,604, stabilizing just below key resistance at $110,000, supported by easing EU trade tensions and continued accumulation from long-term investors, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model.
• ETH: Ethereum broke decisively above $2,600 on strong institutional ETF inflows and rising DeFi activity, though flat active address growth could limit further upside.
• Gold: Gold currently trades at $3,315.30 per ounce, down 0.77%, as Citi upgrades its near-term forecast to between $3,100 and $3,500 due to ongoing trade uncertainties, while remaining cautious longer term amid expectations of economic improvement and Fed rate cuts.
• Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225, which opened at 38,003.67 on Wednesday, is forecasted to rise approximately 5% to 39,600 by year-end, according to a Reuters poll, as U.S. trade uncertainties eased, though near-term volatility remained likely, with analysts predicting further gains to 42,000 by the end of 2026.
• S&P 500: The benchmark S&P 500 closed about 2.1% higher Tuesday, boosted by optimism over a delayed implementation of U.S.-EU tariffs and improved prospects for a trade agreement.

Elsewhere in Crypto…

The global head of technology research at Wedbush Securities, Dan Ives, is leaning bullish on analytics software firm Palantir Technologies (PLTR).

In a new CNBC interview, Ives says the market cap of Palantir Technologies could skyrocket by around 290% from the current level in a few years.

“I believe this is going to $1 trillion market cap in the next two to three years. These numbers just show, I think, ‘Let’s get to popcorn out.’ It’s still in the early days of playing out.”

As of Monday’s market close, Palantir Technologies is trading at $108 and has a market cap of approximately $256 billion.

While likening Palantir Technologies to soccer superstar Lionel Messi, Ives defends the software analytics firm’s valuation, saying it is justified given the growth opportunities.

“If you go back the last few years, I mean they hated it at $10, despised it at $100 and that would be the continued argument of valuation.

If you look at what’s happened to the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution, $2 trillion of spend over the next three years. On the software side, it’s their world, everyone else is paying rent, income is to Palantir.

So my view is if you look at just on valuation, and if you went back, you’ve missed every transformational tech stock in the last 20 years. If you just focused on valuation, where is this in the next two, three, four or five years?

And I view what [CEO Alex] Karp’s doing at Palantir is generational. But again, the haters are going to hate, I get it. Valuation. Check the box. You look at these numbers, to me, I think this is just another sort of table-pounder moment, you know, for what I view as the Messi of AI, Palantir.”

Billionaire venture capitalist Peter Thiel owns about 4.5% of Palantir Technologies, according to financial data firm Fintel.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

Generated Image: Midjourney

A closely followed crypto strategist believes that one Ethereum (ETH) competitor may have reached a local bottom amid a broad market sell-off.

Pseudonymous analyst Inmortal tells his 231,100 followers on the social media platform X that Solana (SOL) may be presenting a rare buying opportunity after hitting the 24-hour low of $112.

“SOL: feels like a generational entry.”

Looking at his chart, the trader suggests SOL is printing a similar pattern from 2021, when SOL dipped more than 60% from its local top before putting up massive gains.

SOL is trading for $116 at time of writing, down 1.8% in the last 24 hours.

Next up, the analyst suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) is on the verge of breaking out and may reclaim the $100,000 level as support by next month.

“Maybe this dream [will] come true, just maybe.”

Bitcoin is trading for $82,719 at time of writing, flat on the day.

The analyst is also turning bullish on FLOKI (FLOKI) as the memecoin bounces off of lows not seen since more than a year ago.

“Floki at pre-bull market levels is crazy. Added some spot here, see you in a few months.”

FLOKI is trading for $0.00005453 at time of writing, down 1.8% in the last 24 hours.

Lastly, the analyst says that ETH may be on the verge of a bullish reversal based on historical precedence.

“Expansions lead to retraces. Retraces lead to bounces. Bounce soon.”

ETH is trading for $1,810 at time of writing, flat on the day.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

Generated Image: Midjourney

In a post on X published yesterday, Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise, stated that Bitcoin (BTC) currently presents a “generational opportunity” amid intensifying global macroeconomic turmoil. 

Park pointed to factors such as US President Donald Trump’s proposed trade tariffs, concerns over the US debt ceiling, and the growing sentiment of deglobalization as key contributors to the current economic uncertainty.

Bitcoin Reigns Supreme Amid Global Political And Economic Turmoil

The year 2025 has started on an unstable footing, marked by rising global economic and political instability due to trade tariffs, US debt ceiling issues, and the broader push toward deglobalization. These factors could significantly impact financial markets and geopolitical stability.

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Adding to the uncertainty is the impending expiration of the US Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) later this year, which could lead to unprecedented tax policy shifts and heightened economic unpredictability.

Park also underscored the “gold run tail risk,” referencing gold’s extreme price volatility during periods of financial distress. At the time of writing, gold is trading at $2,900 per ounce, up significantly from around $2,585 in December 2024.

Despite these mounting risks, Bitcoin has remained resilient, maintaining a price range between $90,000 and $100,000. Park highlighted BTC’s implied volatility (IV) percentile – a measure that reflects how its current volatility compares to historical levels.

He noted that BTC’s IV percentile is at its lowest level of the year, reinforcing his view that Bitcoin presents a “generational opportunity.” Echoing this sentiment, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley remarked that many are underestimating “the massive leaps Bitcoin is going to take into the mainstream this year.”

Indeed, Bitcoin continues to gain mainstream traction and demonstrate resilience amid rising global economic uncertainty. For example, BTC remained largely unaffected by the tech market sell-off triggered by the release of the Chinese AI model DeepSeek.

No Altseason Anytime Soon?

As Bitcoin strengthens its dominance, the altcoin market has struggled, weighed down by thin liquidity and waning retail interest. One key indicator supporting this trend is Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D), which measures BTC’s market cap relative to the total cryptocurrency market.

Related Reading

The weekly BTC.D chart shows a strong rebound from around 54% in December 2024. At the time of writing, BTC.D stands at 60.65%, a level not seen since March 2021.

That said, some analysts remain optimistic about a potential Ethereum-led (ETH) altseason later in 2025. Recent analysis by Titan of Crypto suggests that Ethereum is poised for a major upward move this year.

The analyst also pointed out similarities between ETH’s current price action and BTC’s behavior during its third market cycle, implying that Ethereum may soon enter what he calls its “most hated rally.” At press time, BTC trades at $95,362, down 0.4% in the past 24 hours.

Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from X.com and Tradingview.com