Fund039s – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Mon, 07 Jul 2025 00:07:01 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.11 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Fund039s – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 Billionaire Bill Ackman Has 51% of His Hedge Fund's $14.4 Billion Portfolio Invested in Just 3 Exceptional Stocks https://earlybirdsinvest.com/billionaire-bill-ackman-has-51-of-his-hedge-funds-14-4-billion-portfolio-invested-in-just-3-exceptional-stocks/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/billionaire-bill-ackman-has-51-of-his-hedge-funds-14-4-billion-portfolio-invested-in-just-3-exceptional-stocks/#respond Mon, 07 Jul 2025 00:07:00 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/billionaire-bill-ackman-has-51-of-his-hedge-funds-14-4-billion-portfolio-invested-in-just-3-exceptional-stocks/ Ackman’s best ideas still look attractive at today’s prices.

Bill Ackman likes to keep his hedge fund, Pershing Square Capital, invested in just a few high-conviction companies. Indeed, it’s hard to generate market-beating returns if your investments are spread so thin your portfolio looks pretty similar to the overall stock market. But Ackman and his team hold stock in just 10 publicly traded companies.

Ackman is willing to deploy billions of dollars at once to accumulate shares in his highest-conviction bets, and he likes to hold those stocks for a long time. As such, Pershing Square’s monthly investor updates and quarterly disclosures with the SEC can be a great source of investing ideas. And Ackman’s three best ideas right now account for more than half of Pershing Square’s publicly traded portfolio.

Here are Ackman’s top three holdings.

A pie chart printed on a piece of paper.

Image source: Getty Images.

1. Uber (19.7% of portfolio)

Ackman accumulated 30.3 million shares of Uber (UBER 1.65%) at the start of 2025 before announcing the new position on X in early February. Pershing Square’s first-quarter 13-F filing revealed it was, in fact, Pershing Square’s largest position.

That position has only gotten bigger as Uber stock has climbed about 55% since the start of the year, reaching a new all-time high. A large part of that rally came after Ackman announced Pershing Square’s position.

But the long-term prospects look good for Uber, too. While some see autonomous vehicles as a threat to Uber’s ride-sharing business, it could turn out to be an opportunity for the company. That’s because Uber has, by far, the largest customer base for taxi services. It counted 170 million total monthly active users as of the end of the first quarter. And its market share is growing thanks to the network effect and giving users more ways to use its service.

That’s an incredible asset that most companies building autonomous vehicles would love to tap into. Alphabet‘s Waymo, the leading self-driving car company, has already inked several deals with Uber to operate in multiple cities.

In the meantime, Uber is executing on its financial goals. Gross bookings increased 14% last quarter. With improved operating leverage, the company managed to grow earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) 35%. With limited cash expenditures, it managed to produce 66% growth in free cash flow (converting over 100% of EBITDA).

Despite the strong run-up in price, shares of Uber look fairly valued at an enterprise value less than 23 times forward EBITDA estimates as of this writing. Considering management expects EBITDA growth above 30% over the next couple of years, that’s a very attractive price.

2. Brookfield (18.4%)

Ackman has built a position in Canadian alternative asset manager Brookfield (BN 2.58%)over the last four quarters. On top of asset management, the company operates businesses across several segments, including real estate, renewable power facilities, and infrastructure. Those cash-flowing businesses give it capital to invest in additional operating businesses.

Brookfield Wealth Solutions, its insurance business, provides additional capital via float for management to invest. That’s a strategy Warren Buffett used to grow Berkshire Hathaway, and one Ackman has expressed interest in himself.

Overall, Brookfield has grown distributable earnings per share at an average rate of 19% per year over the past five years. There’s no reason to expect that rate to slow significantly over the next few years, as management uses its considerable cash flows from asset management, insurance, and its operating businesses to buy profitable assets while returning additional cash to shareholders through buybacks. Management is targeting $6.33 in earnings per share by 2029, a 16% compound annual growth rate. It grew 30% in the first quarter.

Despite the strong growth expectations, the stock trades for just 19 times trailing earnings per share. That’s well below comparable comparable companies and appears to undervalue the growth potential of the business.

3. Howard Hughes Holdings (13.3%)

After a deal to acquire an increased stake in Howard Hughes (HHH -0.12%) through Pershing Square in May, Ackman now serves (once again) as executive chairman for the company’s board. Ackman put up $900 million of Pershing Square’s cash in exchange for 9 million shares of the stock, giving it a 46.9% economic stake in the company and 40% control of the vote.

The bigger part of the deal is that Ackman is able to take Howard Hughes and transform its existing real estate operations into a diversified holding company a la Berkshire Hathaway. Ackman has said one of his first moves will be to buy or build an insurance business.

In the meantime, Howard Hughes’ core business looks undervalued. Management estimated the net asset value of its master planned communities, condos, and operating assets (minus its corporate debt) at about $5.8 billion per share at the end of last year. The $900 million cash infusion from Pershing Square’s investment will bring its net asset value even higher, but the company’s total market cap sits at just $4 billion as of this writing.

Howard Hughes generates strong operating cash flow through the sale of its plots to homebuilders and rental income from its commercial and multifamily buildings. Since it controls the entire acreage of its master planned communities, it’s able to build just enough to meet demand for office buildings and multifamily housing, ensuring strong returns on capital spending. The rest of its cash can go toward new investments, especially now as a diversified holding company.

The new structure does come with some drawbacks, though. Howard Hughes will have to pay Pershing Square $3.75 million every quarter on top of a 0.375% incentive fee for increasing the value of the business above inflation. That said, Howard Hughes opens the door for average investors to put their money to work directly with Ackman and gain access to private deals he might make instead of following along with Pershing Square’s public moves. And with the stock trading below management’s estimate for net asset value, it may be a good opportunity for investors.

Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Adam Levy has positions in Alphabet. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Berkshire Hathaway, Brookfield, Brookfield Corporation, Howard Hughes, and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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After Saying Selling Nvidia Stock Was a "Big Mistake," Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller Just Increased His Fund's Stake by 457% in This Other Artificial Intelligence (AI) Semiconductor Stock https://earlybirdsinvest.com/after-saying-selling-nvidia-stock-was-a-big-mistake-billionaire-stanley-druckenmiller-just-increased-his-funds-stake-by-457-in-this-other-artificial-intelligence-ai-semiconductor/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/after-saying-selling-nvidia-stock-was-a-big-mistake-billionaire-stanley-druckenmiller-just-increased-his-funds-stake-by-457-in-this-other-artificial-intelligence-ai-semiconductor/#respond Thu, 29 May 2025 14:51:20 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/after-saying-selling-nvidia-stock-was-a-big-mistake-billionaire-stanley-druckenmiller-just-increased-his-funds-stake-by-457-in-this-other-artificial-intelligence-ai-semiconductor/ Stanley Druckenmiller of the Duquesne Family Office may have just found his next big opportunity in the artificial intelligence (AI) chip market.

It’s easy to think that institutional money managers somehow possess knowledge that’s superior to the rest of the investment community. After all, these billionaires are called “smart money” for a reason.

What I find helpful, though, is when portfolio managers admit that they may have made a mistake. To me, this sheds light into how these investors think, and what strategies they may hone in order to mitigate making the same oversight.

Stanley Druckenmiller of the Duquesne Family Office admitted that he sold Nvidia stock far too early — going as far as to say that he made a “big mistake” in doing so.

Since making these comments, Druckenmiller has definitely had multiple chances to get back on the Nvidia train. After all, Cathie Wood of Ark Invest did just that after she too sold the semiconductor darling prior to its epic rally a couple of years ago. Nevertheless, recent filings indicate that Druckenmiller may have accepted his decision with Nvidia and is seeking opportunity elsewhere.

Let’s dig into the new artificial intelligence (AI) chip stock that the Duquesne Family Office just increased its stake in by a whopping 457%. Now may be a lucrative time to follow Druckenmiller’s lead.

What AI stock did Druckenmiller just buy?

Per its most recent 13F filing, the Duquesne Family Office recently plowed into Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 0.72%) stock. In the table, I’ve summarized the fund’s position in TSMC over the last year:

Category Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q1 2025
Shares owned 0 0 57,355 107,515 598,780

Data source: Hedge Follow. Table by author.

Sometimes when a hedge fund increases its position in a particular stock, you can begin identifying a pattern by looking at prior filings. In this case, however, I don’t think these dynamics really hold up.

A year ago, Druckenmiller’s portfolio had zero exposure to Taiwan Semi. And while the firm did buy the stock during the previous two quarters, the position itself was relatively nominal. Looked at a different way, the most recent purchase of TSMC stock during Q1 is a clear outlier compared to the previous two quarters.

Why might Druckenmiller like Taiwan Semiconductor stock?

While Taiwan Semi might not receive nearly as much coverage as Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, or Broadcom, don’t be fooled by its quiet reputation.

Companies such as Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Amazon, Qualcomm, Apple, and many more all design or buy chips and integrated network equipment for AI data centers. Where TSMC comes into play is that they actually manufacture the equipment that is designed by these companies.

So while Nvidia and its cohorts get to sell the best shovels that money can buy during the AI gold rush, Taiwan Semi is in the background actually making the shovels. In other words, a good chunk of the AI chip opportunity hinges on TSMC’s ability to manufacture these products.

What’s even more encouraging is that Taiwan Semi is investing heavily into infrastructure in an effort to maintain its lead over the competition. The company has already built factories here in the U.S., and has plans to double down on this initiative over the next few years. These investments are strategic, as they should allow for more efficiencies and improved supply chain logistics with domestic chip partners — a strategy that I think will further cement TSMC’s market share lead.

TSM Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year Chart

TSM Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts

Wall Street seems to be bullish on Taiwan Semi, too. Per these estimates, analysts are forecasting impressive growth across both revenue and profits for TSMC over the next few years. I see these projections as a proxy for continued robust demand for AI chips, and Taiwan Semi’s ability to win business over the competition such as Intel or Samsung.

A person working on the assembly line of a chip manufacturing facility.

Image source: Getty Images.

Is Taiwan Semi stock a buy right now?

Right now, Taiwan Semiconductor’s shares trade at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 20.8 — essentially identical to its five-year average. Given how influential TSMC’s foundry services are to the broader chip narrative, it’s a little perplexing to see the company’s forward valuation ratios trading in line with levels prior to the AI revolution.

I think the recent valuation compression in TSMC can be attributed to two primary factors: uncertainty around tariff policies and geopolitical tensions with China.

TSM PE Ratio (Forward) Chart

TSM PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts

While I’ll acknowledge both as potential risk factors, I think the bearish narrative surrounding each of them is overblown. Despite ongoing trade negotiations, demand for AI infrastructure remains incredibly high. These dynamics bode well for TSMC. Moreover, if management were questioning the long-term growth trajectory of the company, I’d be suspicious that it would be looking to expand its footprint beyond Asia.

To me, Taiwan Semiconductor is humming along just fine — and I don’t see its tailwinds slowing down anytime soon. For these reasons, investors may want to follow Druckenmiller’s lead and take advantage of Taiwan Semi’s attractive price levels right now.

More importantly, unlike what Druckenmiller did with Nvidia, TSMC looks primed for years to come, and growth investors may want to hold on tight for the long haul.

John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Adam Spatacco has positions in Amazon, Apple, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Amazon, Apple, Intel, Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom and recommends the following options: short August 2025 $24 calls on Intel. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Billionaire Investor David Tepper Sold 56% of His Fund's Stake in Nvidia and Loaded Up on This Market-Beating Transportation Stock Instead https://earlybirdsinvest.com/billionaire-investor-david-tepper-sold-56-of-his-funds-stake-in-nvidia-and-loaded-up-on-this-market-beating-transportation-stock-instead/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/billionaire-investor-david-tepper-sold-56-of-his-funds-stake-in-nvidia-and-loaded-up-on-this-market-beating-transportation-stock-instead/#respond Tue, 27 May 2025 10:28:57 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/billionaire-investor-david-tepper-sold-56-of-his-funds-stake-in-nvidia-and-loaded-up-on-this-market-beating-transportation-stock-instead/

Many sports fans may know David Tepper as the owner of the NFL’s Carolina Panthers. But in the investing world, Tepper is considered a legend. Between 1993 and 2019, Tepper’s fund, Appaloosa Management, generated compound annual returns of more than 25% per year, net of all fees, according to Institutional Investor. Today, Tepper still runs Appaloosa but as a family office, and he’s still arguably one of the most influential investors in the market. In the first quarter of 2025, filings show that Appaloosa more than halved its position in the artificial intelligence (AI) chip giant Nvidia (NVDA -1.02%), while loading up on a market-beating transportation stock instead.

Reading the tea leaves on Nvidia

Like many stocks in 2025, Nvidia has had an up-and-down year. It sold off intensely but then rebounded and is currently down only 2% for the year. Earlier in 2025, there were many concerning events that could have caused investors to press the sell button.

A person working on a laptop.

Image source: Getty Images.

The first occurred after China’s DeepSeek created an artificial intelligence chatbot rivaling OpenAI’s ChatGPT, supposedly at a fraction of the cost and with older Nvidia chips. Now, there’s much dispute about the level of resources that went into DeepSeek but it caused investors to worry about demand for Nvidia’s chips and whether or not more in the AI world could be done with less.

Then there were concerns about export restrictions and how that might impact Nvidia’s business in China. Former President Joe Biden’s administration began to limit the types of chips Nvidia could sell to China, in an effort to prevent China from obtaining semiconductors it could use to build a super computer. Those restrictions ramped up and the Biden administration also tried to close loopholes by preventing Nvidia from selling certain chips to other countries that could then sell them to China. The Trump administration plans to remove some of the Biden-era policies but also implemented its own restrictions that caused Nvidia to take a $5.5 billion charge in the first quarter of the year.

While there is still broader market uncertainty, particularly as U.S. Treasury yields surged, investors seem to have renewed faith in AI demand and Nvidia currently trades at a cheaper forward earnings multiple than earlier this year, so it’s not a bad time for long-term oriented buyers to buy shares or start dollar-cost averaging again.

NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) Chart

NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts

A ride-sharing company with autonomous potential

While selling Nvidia, Tepper and Appaloosa more than doubled their position in the ride-sharing company Uber Technologies (UBER -0.16%). Uber was one of the most highly touted start-ups, but struggled to turn a profit for many years. In 2017, the company brought on Dara Khosrowshahi, who has focused less on growth and more on improving operations.

Through a mixture of cost-cutting, price increases, exiting difficult markets like China, and a focus on growing profitable businesses like Uber Eats, Uber managed to turn its first profit in 2023. Since then, profits and revenue continued to grow and the company has also been increasing free cash flow. The stock has crushed the broader market this year and over the last five years.

UBER Chart

UBER data by YCharts

Uber also has an opportunity to be a part of the autonomous vehicle wave. While the company will not build its own self-driving vehicles, it does plan to partner with companies in the autonomous space to help them reach commercialization and integrate autonomous vehicles into Uber’s fleet. In a presentation made in the fourth quarter of 2024, management presented the autonomous space as more than a $1 trillion opportunity.

The company said that the path to commercialization for companies developing self-driving vehicles faces several obstacles. These include navigating the regulatory landscape, ensuring safety, and having a scalable network and platform. Uber can help on all of these fronts and has already partnered with several large autonomous companies like Waymo and WeRide. Earlier this month, Uber and WeRide announce an expansion of their partnership to roll out autonomous vehicles in 15 cities across the world.

Trading at less than 25 times forward earnings, Uber has the opportunity to continue improving profitability and free cash flow, while also potentially tapping into the massive autonomous market over time, presenting a potential new stream of revenue.

Bram Berkowitz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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