The US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit issued a mandate on Aug. 22 approving the dismissal of the appeals in the case between Ripple and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The court order, shared by lawyer James Filan on X, officially ends one of crypto’s most consequential legal battles. 

Despite the news, XRP’s price increased less than 1% within one hour, trading at $3.0694 as of press time.

The dismissal follows a joint filing on Aug. 7, in which Ripple and the SEC agreed to end their appeals after a formal Commission vote. 

The agreement marks the conclusion of a dispute that began in December 2020 when the SEC sued Ripple Labs, CEO Brad Garlinghouse, and co-founder Chris Larsen for allegedly conducting an unregistered securities offering through XRP sales.

Legal battle concludes, ETF odds remain high

Under the settlement terms, XRP will not be classified as a security, representing a major victory for Ripple. Each side will cover its own legal costs, according to the court filing. 

Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty previously described the agreement as closing a chapter that has overshadowed the crypto industry for nearly four years. 

The outcome places Ripple alongside other crypto firms like Coinbase that have successfully resolved enforcement actions with the SEC. Further, it removes regulatory uncertainty around XRP’s status, keeping the odds of approval of XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) high.

In February, Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart predicted 65% odds of approval for spot XRP ETFs in the US. 

Polymarket bettors placed their odds of such an approval happening this year at 98% in early June, followed by a 10% slide after the SEC delayed decisions on multiple filings the same month.

Despite the sliding odds on the crypto-based prediction market, Balchunas and Seyffart raised their odds to “90% or higher” on June 20.

Polymarket traders continued to oppose the analysts, taking the odds to 62% in early August after the news that Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw opposed the approval.

However, Balchunas reiterated the high odds of approval of XRP ETFs:

“Interesting, trades reporting how Polymarket odds of XRP ETF approval went down to 62% after the votes were disclosed showing Crenshaw voting no, but a) she’s gonna vote no on EVERYTHING and b) it’s meaningless, she’s outnumbered = we haven’t changed our odds, still at 95%.”

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Hassan, a Cryptonews.com journalist with 6+ years of experience in Web3 journalism, brings deep knowledge across Crypto, Web3 Gaming, NFTs, and Play-to-Earn sectors. His work has appeared in…

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July 25, 2025

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan says the long-observed four-year crypto cycle may no longer apply to the current market.

In a recent discussion with Bitcoin advocate Kyle Chassé and Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, Hougan argued that the historical pattern is breaking down, and a longer, more sustained growth phase could be on the horizon.

Traditionally, crypto markets have followed a four-year rhythm driven by Bitcoin’s halving events, shifting interest rates, and the cyclical blow-ups that have rattled the industry. But Hougan believes these drivers are now losing influence.

Matt Hougan Predicts ‘Sustained Boom’ for Crypto as Traditional Cycles Fade

In a follow-up post on X, Hougan pointed to the diminishing impact of the Bitcoin halving, noting that each one has half the effect of the last. “The halving is half as important every four years,” he said.

The rationale is simple: as block rewards diminish in absolute terms, their effect on overall market supply shrinks relative to the growing scale of the crypto economy. As such, halvings no longer serve as the singular driving force behind bullish market cycles.

He also noted how interest rate cycles, once a severe headwind for crypto in downturns like 2018 and 2022, are now acting as tailwinds, buoyed by a more stable and accommodative macro environment.

Hougan further emphasized that the risk of blowups, which had once controlled cycles in the crypto space, has been greatly reduced due to the shift to improved regulation and growing institutional involvement.

In place of the old cycle, Hougan sees new forces taking hold, ones that move on longer timelines and aren’t tied to halving years.

At the top of the list is the growing inflow of capital into crypto-related ETFs. That wave, which started in 2024, is just beginning, he said, and could last five to ten years.

Institutional adoption is another key trend. Hougan said pensions, endowments, and national account platforms are only starting to embrace crypto exposure. He expects that trend to accelerate as more crypto ETFs win approval.

He also pointed to progress on the regulatory front. In his view, January 2025 marked the beginning of a new era of policymaking for the industry. Hougan cited the passage of the GENIUS Act earlier this month as a major shift.

The legislation has opened the door for Wall Street to begin building financial products around crypto, he said, predicting that banks will invest billions over the coming years.

In his post, Hougan added that new developments such as the rise of crypto treasury firms holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets are shaping a different kind of cycle. He believes these emerging patterns won’t follow the sharp booms and busts of the past.

“I think it’s more of a sustained steady boom than a supercycle,” Hougan wrote. “The long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic four-year cycle forces.”

Looking ahead, he believes 2026 will be a strong year for crypto, although he warned that volatility is still expected.

Bitwise CIO Sees Bitcoin on Path to $1M Amid Policy Shifts and Growing Institutional Support

This is not the first time Hougan has believed that Bitcoin has entered a new phase of institutional adoption, marked by major shifts in finance and policy.

On December 13, 2024, Hougan pointed to several key developments signaling this shift: BlackRock’s suggested 2% portfolio allocation to Bitcoin, the rapid uptake of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and growing public support from financial leaders like Ray Dalio.

He also noted the increasing political acceptance of crypto, noting President Donald Trump’s vocal backing of Bitcoin and his appearance at a major industry event.

Forward to this year, Hougan predicted Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by demand from sovereign wealth funds, public companies, and institutional investors.

“The final barrier fell when governments became holders,” he said. “Bitcoin’s survival was no longer in doubt; growth became the focus.”

Hougan maintains that Bitcoin is now in a new phase, less speculative and more institutional and structural.

In a wide range of conversations, Matt Crosby, lead analyst at Bitcoin Magazine Pro, sits alongside the reasonable routes of chain cycle experts to explore pressing questions about the minds of many investors.

The discussion is divided into over-chain metrics, ETF flows, market psychology, and corporate accumulation. This is central to understanding whether Bitcoin’s next big move is slowing down and attenuating, or moving forward.

On-Chain Market Location: Not Overheated yet

According to Rational Root, the Bitcoin market is far from cycle fatigue.

This important metric (average acquisition price for recent market participants – exists as a proxy for overheating conditions. Routes argue that this mild positioning suggests we are still in bullish territory.

Structured mountain climbing and parabolic hype

The route noted that the current cycle forms a much more stable structure compared to past cycles.

Matt Crosby points out that more orderly trends could be a byproduct of the institution, suggesting that this could be a new stage in Bitcoin that suppresses extreme volatility in both directions.

ETF Flow: New Whale

A reasonable route closely tracked the large demand from ETFs.

This influx is significantly higher than the current daily issue of 450 BTC. ETF demand is combined with the Finance Ministry and long-term holders of companies, and is fundamentally shifting the supply dynamics of Bitcoin.

Human psychology is still dominant

Despite the rise of institutional players, routes remain based on patterns of behavior.

He reiterated that the Bitcoin cycle remains induced by collective psychology: consolidation, fear, and FOMO. So far, data from the current cycle appears to rhyme closely with the 2017 and 2021 cycles.

Are you in the stage of happiness?

See what he is well known Bitcoin Spiral Chartthe route pointed out:

Historically, this phase precedes the market peak, but routes have been careful not to provide timing guarantees.

Bitcoin Finance Company: Cheat Codes or Risk?

With the rise of Bitcoin finance companies such as MicroStrategy, Metaplanet and The Blockchain Group, Root is shared.

He highlighted the strategic use of debt by these companies and harnessed the decline of Fiat to accumulate Bitcoin. He also tackles previous skepticism caused by obstacles in the 2022 cycle (such as celsius, blockfi), but he considers current players to be fundamentally sound.

Price prediction and cycle timing

Pushed by prediction, the reasonable route said:

He cited the potential for macro risk and extended integration, but has reiterated so far that the current cycle remains historically within normal boundaries.

Are we entering a new era?

Root and Crosby acknowledge the changing nature of Bitcoin’s market participants, but agree that the basic cycle mechanisms still apply.

Added routes:

The final words

The Bitcoin market structure has evolved, but not fundamental. Institutional demand, passive flows, and corporate accumulation are restructuring behavior, but the emotional core of the cycle remains familiar. Investors need to prepare for ongoing benefits, but should remain vigilant for signs of overextension.

For more in-depth research, technical metrics, real-time market alerts, and access to the growing community of analysts, visit bitcoinmagazinepro.com.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making an investment decision.