Bitcoin Supply On Exchanges Has Been Trending Up Recently

In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Supply on Exchanges for Bitcoin. The “Supply on Exchanges” here is an on-chain indicator from the analytics firm Santiment that keeps track of the total amount of BTC that’s sitting on the wallets connected to centralized exchanges.

When the value of this metric rises, it means the holders are depositing a net number of tokens to these platforms. As one of the main reasons why investors transfer to exchanges is for selling-related purposes, this kind of trend can have a bearish effect on the coin’s value.

On the other hand, the indicator going down suggests investors are taking coins off to self-custodial wallets. Such a trend can be a sign that the network is witnessing accumulation, which can naturally be a bullish sign for the cryptocurrency.

Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Supply on Exchanges over the past few weeks:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Supply on Exchanges has been on the way up recently, implying that the investors have been making net inflows. In total, the holders have transferred 20,000 BTC into the wallets of these platforms over the last two weeks. At the current exchange rate, this amount is worth a whopping $2.2 billion.

The timing of these deposits has come alongside the cryptocurrency’s price decline, so it’s likely that a lot of these were made with the intention to sell.

In the same chart, Martinez has also attached the data of the Exchange Inflow, which shows all inflows going to these platforms, not just net inflows. This metric registered a huge spike during the weekend, after which BTC extended its decline.

Interestingly, the Supply on Exchanges didn’t see any increase with this large spike, indicating that there was enough demand for withdrawing the cryptocurrency that balanced out the deposits.

Speaking of exchange inflows, the Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs), buyers from the last 155 days, have made a notable amount of loss deposits recently.

The STHs are made up of the weak hands of the market, so it’s not surprising to see them capitulate during price declines. In fact, large loss-taking spikes from them help Bitcoin find bottoms as their coins transfer to more resolute entities.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $110,500, down over 2.5% in the last week.

Ethereum (ETH) reclaimed the $2,700 threshold one day after spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) listed in the US tracking the asset surpassed $4.5 billion in cumulative net inflows on July 8, according to Farside Investors’ data.

As of press time, Ethereum is priced at $2,723.98, up by 4.1% in the past 24 hours. ETH lost the $2,700 footing on June 12, spending almost a month below it.

Notably, the milestone of the ETFs came 25 US trading sessions after the products cleared $3 billion on May 30. 

Issuers attracted $303 million between July 1 and July 8. BlackRock’s ETHA led with $171,8 million in the period, followed by the $74.5 million in inflows from Fidelity’s FETH.

Shifting derivatives

Derivatives positioning shifted the next day. Coinank data show the Binance ETH/USDT perpetual long-to-short ratio slipped to 0.98 at 10:00 UTC on July 9, the first print below parity since April 16, 2023, when the same metric bottomed at 0.94. 

Rising open interest alongside a new net-short balance implies fresh money entering the market rather than positions closing. 

Classical futures theory holds that increasing open interest combined with decisive price action confirms trend strength, while a divergence often precedes reversals. 

Q3 catalysts

A recent report by CF Benchmarks cited four drivers that could tighten supply-demand dynamics in the coming quarter. 

The first is the expectation of $10 billion in incremental ETF inflows as second-wave platforms launch. At the same time, the second is the potential staking enablement inside US spot ETFs, projected to draw an additional $5 billion to $7 billion. 

The report identified a third catalyst as the corporate treasury’s adoption, which may increase the number of public ETH-holding firms from 5 to 50. Wrapping up the catalysts is the block space demand from tokenized assets that “should lift fee burn and bolster the L1 yield profile.” 

The report framed these flows as supportive after a first half marked by elevated but orderly leverage and record CME participation.

Price discovery enters tight window

With ETFs absorbing spot supply and Binance futures showing contrasting signs, traders face a confluence that tends to accelerate price discovery. 

Whether the next decisive move materializes through a long squeeze or a short cover will hinge on macro data and regulatory headlines. Still, the structural bid from regulated funds remains intact. 

The juxtaposition of persistent spot demand and a rare net-short bias in derivatives sets a measurable backdrop as the third quarter opens.

Mentioned in this article

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Ross Ulbricht has received a massive gift from the crypto world. He was pardoned earlier this year and, within hours, 300 Bitcoins—worth about $31.4 million—were sent to his donation wallet.

He’s already seen support from big players like Kraken, which gave $111,111 in Bitcoin, and grassroots efforts that raked in roughly $270,000. Now he has enough to start over, and many in the crypto community are watching closely.

Community Support Flows

According to blockchain analysis platform Lookonchain, the 300 BTC landed in Ulbricht’s wallet just hours after it was sent. This isn’t the first time generous backers have reached out.

Ross Ulbricht(@RealRossU), the founder of the #SilkRoad marketplace, received 300 $BTC($31.4M) to his donation wallet 8 hours ago.https://t.co/3DEsM9rpBq pic.twitter.com/JoUMNqM99p

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) June 1, 2025

Earlier in 2025, Kraken quietly wired over $111,111 to help him adjust to life outside prison. A group called Free Ross has claimed more than $270,000 in donations.

Another address tied to Ulbricht gathered $4,615 in Ethereum, USDC, Tether (USDT), and Binance Coin (BNB). All of this suggests that plenty of people still care deeply about his fate.

Presidential Pardon And Backlash

On January 21, 2025, US President Donald Trump signed a full and unconditional pardon for Ulbricht. He’d spent 11 years serving a double life sentence without parole after being convicted in New York in 2015 of narcotics and money-laundering conspiracy.

Based on reports, Ulbricht could have access to inactive Bitcoin wallets connected to Silk Road, and those wallets may hold roughly $47 million. That potential stash has only fueled more debate: some ask whether he really needs outside donations if he can tap into $47 million in dormant coins.

Auction Of Personal Items

Ulbricht has also turned to selling pieces of his past. Based on reports from Scarce City—the Bitcoin-powered collectibles platform—he’s raised about $1.8 million by auctioning personal items and art.

His prison ID card drew the highest bid: 11 BTC, now worth more than $1.1 million. An oil painting made with help from fellow inmate “Omega” sold for 1.01 BTC. Thirteen artifacts in all were up for grabs, including prison sneakers, a sweatsuit, a t-shirt, a prison notebook, and a locker lock.

Before his arrest, he’d owned things like a djembe drum, a backpack, and Vibram FiveFingers shoes. Bidders must complete payment by June 2, and Ulbricht has said he’s ready to move on from these physical reminders.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

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