Bitcoin (BTC) and the wider market experienced a minor pullback after President Donald Trump announced the finalization of a new tariff arrangement with China, pending a formal sign-off by him and President Xi Jinping.

Trump announced on Truth Social that the accord grants the US “55% tariffs” on Chinese goods, versus 10% levied on US exports, and secures Chinese supplies of rare-earth magnets. 

He also said Washington would preserve access for Chinese students at American universities and that the “relationship is excellent.” The total market value of crypto assets fell 2%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.7%.

Bitcoin fell to a daily low of $108,331 following the news and was trading at $108,654.87 as of press time, down 1.5% over the past 24 hours. Notably, it is holding above the realized price of $106,900 registered by investors who bought the flagship crypto in the past 24 hours. 

According to a recent report by Glassnode, the next realized price levels are $105,200 for investors holding BTC for more than one month and $104,900 for investors holding between one week and one month.

Market read-through

Bitcoin and equities reversed early gains within minutes of the post, reflecting concern that the higher US levy could weigh on global demand even if a formal truce reduces headline tension.

The framework “reduces global uncertainty marginally” if enacted, according to a note shared by Bitfinex head of derivatives Jag Kooner.

Yet, he noted that “much of the market uncertainty has already been priced in.” Kooner expects a short burst of volatility, followed by mean reversion unless the deal delivers a clear liquidity impulse.

Furthermore, he tied June 11 price action to the morning release of May consumer price (CPI) data, arguing that tariff-related inflation has appeared in headline figures since last month and will likely peak by August. 

Kooner believes that the CPI is the real volatility trigger, adding that the 0.1% rise in core prices consolidates expectations for Federal Reserve easing and “creates a vacuum above $111,000 for Bitcoin.”

Correlation with S&P 500

The analyst also noted a 30-day correlation of 0.63 between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, describing BTC as “a liquidity barometer rather than a volatility hedge.”

This relationship leaves Bitcoin’s upside capped while equities hold a narrow range but could allow BTC to lead if stocks break higher on softer inflation data.

Kooner wrote:

“Without a direct stimulus mechanism, crypto markets are unlikely to see sustained moves upward.” 

However, he views pullbacks as buying opportunities because many coins remain in profit, and exchange balances are light. He projected that any breakout above $111,000 would be “spot driven, with ETF demand accelerating as the macro regime shifts toward easing.”

With no White House or Chinese government statement corroborating Trump’s post, investors now look to any official transcript of the tariff agreement and the June 12 producer price report for additional macroeconomic direction.

Kooner cautioned that until a detailed document emerges, markets must balance the constructive tone against the risk that higher levies could tighten financial conditions during the third quarter. 

Lastly, he highlighted that traders should monitor Chinese policy responses, supply chain commentary from US retailers, and Capitol Hill’s reaction to the proposed duty split.

Mentioned in this article

Tether, the issuer behind the nearly $150 billion USDT stablecoin, has finalized the purchase of a 70% stake in the Latin American agricultural firm Adecoagro (AGRO), which has a market cap of nearly a billion dollars.

Tether initially invested $100 million in Adecoagro in September 2024 for a 9.8% stake, then offered to increase it to 51% in February, and finally raised it to control 70% in March.

Read more: Tether’s $100M Investment in LatAm Agriculture Firm May Be a Tokenization Play

This majority stake gives Tether control over one of the region’s most prominent food and bioenergy producers. Adecoagro owns sugar mills, rice farms, dairy operations, and renewable energy assets across Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay.

Tether said it aims to help scale Adecoagro’s output while aligning the company with its mission of fostering “economic freedom” through decentralized finance and investment in underserved markets.

The move might be part of Tether’s ambition to tokenize real-world assets, as it launched its asset tokenization service Hadron last year. The platform was designed to simplify the process of converting a wide range of real-world assets, including bonds, commodities, stocks, other stablecoins, and loyalty points into digital tokens on blockchain rails.

Read more: Tether Unveils New Platform to Simplify Asset Tokenization for Businesses, Nation-States

“By aligning with in Adecoagro’s proven expertise in agriculture and renewable energy, we are taking another concrete step toward bridging traditional industries with the future of decentralized finance and economic empowerment,” said Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether.

Following the deal, Adecoagro’s board was also reshuffled. Five members stepped down and were replaced by executives tied to Tether and its strategic goals. Juan Sartori, a Uruguayan businessman with political and agricultural interests, took over as chairman.

In the past year, Tether has launched ventures in bitcoin mining, AI, and encrypted communications. AGRO’s shares were up 2.6% on Wednesday.

Read more: Tether’s $100M Investment in LatAm Agriculture Firm May Be a Tokenization Play

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