Shares of Apple (AAPL -1.21%) fell 18.1% in the first half of 2025, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Apple came into 2025 after a 30% gain in 2024 while trading at a high P/E ratio of 40. So it would have taken some very good news for Apple’s stock to climb higher in the beginning of the year.

Instead, Apple suffered from the Trump Administration’s trade war, particularly regarding its negotiations with China. Furthermore, management announced there would be a delay in the new AI-powered Siri, with Apple potentially going to third-party models and spurring doubt about Cupertino’s AI capabilities.

Where’s Siri?

Of all the big technology companies, perhaps none have as much exposure to China as Apple. Despite CEO Tim Cook migrating some iPhone production to India in recent years, about nine in 10 iPhones are still manufactured in China and would therefore be subject to any tariff imposed on goods made in the Middle Kingdom.

Apple received an exemption on tariffs during Trump’s first term, but it’s unlikely that exemption will continue in the second. As of today, it’s very unclear exactly what will happen this time around. After Trump levied a 54% tariff on China on April 2, “Liberation Day,” a tit-for-tat mini-trade war erupted that saw that rate balloon to 145% before a temporary truce was announced on May 12, when tariffs were eased to 30% for 90 days as talks continue.

However, just two weeks later, President Trump said that any iPhone manufactured outside the U.S. would be subject to at least a 25% tariff. While this tariff would also of course apply to Apple’s smartphone and electronics competitors, Apple could potentially see a margin hit or reduced demand if it tries to pass through those extra costs.

The tariff situation is still unclear.

Image source: Getty Images.

The other big worry Apple endured was about artificial intelligence. Apple has never really been an innovator in new technologies, instead historically incorporating new technologies into customer-friendly devices that provide a great experience.

With AI, it’s still unclear how Apple will compete. About a year ago, management announced new AI-powered features to be introduced over the course of the next year. But one year later, the company has clearly disappointed.

In June, Apple announced the new AI-powered Siri would be delayed at least until 2026. Moreover, Bloomberg reported Apple may be giving up on building its own AI models and was in talks with both OpenAI and Anthropic to power the “new” Siri, which is now slated for next year…maybe.

That may be a smart and pragmatic move if these AI-first start-ups can make better large language models than Apple, and if LLMs become somewhat “commoditized.” Still, ceding that ground opens a dependence on these new AI companies, and the situation would become really complicated if one of these companies decided to become a hardware competitor.

And OpenAI is doing just that. A few days ago, OpenAI acquired former Apple design wizard Johnny Ive’s design start-up for $6.5 billion, with the aim of creating a new AI device. While we don’t yet know what kind of device these two are working on, it could potentially be a disruptor to Apple’s portfolio. So it’s probably not great that Apple may also be depending on OpenAI to power Siri in the future.

Could Apple be disrupted?

There’s no reason to panic as an Apple shareholder. After all, Apple has a massive user base that’s very loyal, and it certainly has the financial means to invest in or acquire the AI technologies it may need to serve its customers.

Still, with the tariff threat, the difficulty of executing new AI technologies, and a valuation that is by no means cheap, it’s no wonder Apple stock took a step back in the first half. Until these issues are resolved, I wouldn’t expect a bounce back or any significant upside in the stock.

Shares of C3.ai (AI -1.94%) pulled back through the first half of the year The software-as-a-service (SaaS) company bills itself as offering “AI for the Enterprise” as well as AI-based application software. It continued to post wide losses in its earnings report and fell sharply in February as business and consumer sentiment began to weaken on fears of a trade war.

While the stock recovered a bit in the second quarter of the year, it wasn’t enough to make up for its struggles earlier in the year. According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, the stock was down 29% through the first half of the year.

The chart below shows how the stock’s losses came during a brief period in February.

AI data by YCharts.

C3.ai’s troubles continue

The stock started to slide in February on signs of weakening business and consumer sentiment and as the broad market fell from its peak. C3.ai stock then fell 10% on Feb. 27 as the company posted another wide loss in its Q3 earnings report.

Revenue rose 26% to $98.8 million. On the bottom line, the company continued to be unprofitable as it reported an adjusted loss per share of $0.12. However, its generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) net loss of $80.2 million shows it’s still losing nearly as much money as it’s making in revenue, and its unit economics are barely improving as that loss rose from $72.6 million in the quarter a year ago.

C3.ai has spent heavily on share-based compensation historically, and that pattern continued with $174.4 million in share-based compensation through the first three quarters of the year, or nearly 75% of revenue for that period.

In its Q4 report in May, C3.ai posted similar numbers with revenue up 26% to $108.7 million and an adjusted loss of $0.16 per share. Its GAAP net loss came in at $79.7 million, up from $72.9 million.

While the company made progress with its partnerships and added new customers, the business doesn’t seem to be growing fast enough to offset the losses, and its gross margins remain low for a software company at 62% in Q4.

Image source: Getty Images.

What’s next for C3.ai

The company’s revenue growth has improved, but C3.ai still seems to have a long way to go to build the scale necessary to generate a profit and prove its viability.

Given its exposure to AI and its growth, the stock has potential over the long term, but the downside risks and the share dilution seem to outweigh those for now.

Shares of ExxonMobil (XOM -2.58%) were up as much as 2% earlier on Monday, before plunging to a 3.1% decline and then recovering slightly to a 2.5% decline to end the trading day.

There wasn’t any company-specific news today. However, the roller-coaster performance from the largest U.S.-based oil and gas giant came as investors initially feared a potential severe response from Iran to last weekend’s bombing of its nuclear facilities by the U.S.

But as news came in through the day, it appears the actual response was not as severe as feared. Thus, oil prices plunged, giving back not only the gains from earlier in the day, but also a portion of last week’s run-up in prices.

Buy the fears, sell the attack?

Since Israel struck Iranian military and nuclear targets beginning on June 13, oil and gas prices have been on the rise. The week’s conflict culminated on Saturday, with the U.S. bombing Iran’s nuclear sites at Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan.

Investors likely braced for possible worst-case scenarios coming into this week, which might include Iran blockading the Strait of Hormuz. About 21% of the world’s oil flows through that narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, so if that narrow waterway were blocked, it could lead to a fairly large oil price spike.

However, Iran wound up initially responding by sending missiles toward a U.S. base in Qatar. While that is a real military response to the U.S. strike, it appears the attack was fairly telegraphed and symbolic. The missiles were intercepted by Qatar seemingly without issue.

Investors took the sending of a few missiles as a symbolic gesture that meant Iran wasn’t going to counter the U.S. strikes in a severe way, or attempt to escalate the conflict. Thus, investors “sold the news” on the Iranian response, sending Brent Crude Oil prices down 6.8% on the day and natural gas prices down 4%.

Image source: Getty Images.

Oil and gas stocks should remain volatile

An oil and gas shock in the Middle East won’t have the same consequences that it did back in the 1970s, as the invention of hydraulic fracturing has made the U.S. a global energy superpower and net energy exporter, rather than the importer it used to be. Still, a severe shock in the Middle East could still cause a big jump in oil prices, as we saw when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

However, it appears the initial response from Iran to this past weekend’s attack was rather tame, sending a sigh of relief through markets on Monday.

Still, investors shouldn’t expect a quick end to this conflict. It’s possible more geopolitical events or shocks could come through the summer. Therefore, oil and gas stocks should remain part of one’s diversified portfolio, mainly as a hedge against worst-case geopolitical scenarios.

Shares of Starbucks (SBUX 2.35%) took a dive in April as the company got hit by President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement, and then again at the end of the month after it reported underwhelming results in its fiscal second-quarter earnings report.

Unlike the rest of the stock market, which drifted lower over the remainder of April after Trump put a 90-day pause on some tariffs, Starbucks stock held relatively flat, as investors seemed to believe it was at risk of a recession and a trade war with China. The U.S. and China are its No. 1 and No. 2 markets, respectively.

SBUX data by YCharts

As you can see from the chart, Starbucks followed the trajectory of the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.63%)
for much of the month, but it fell more sharply at the beginning and did not make the same recovery at the end of April. Additionally, Starbucks sold off on the last day of April, as its earnings results underwhelmed.

According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, the stock finished the month down 18%.

Starbucks’ struggles continue

Starbucks’ decline at the beginning of the month wasn’t a big surprise, as restaurant spending, especially at a place like Starbucks, is discretionary, making the company more vulnerable than most of the stock market to a slowdown.

Tariffs could also complicate Starbucks’ business, though the cost of importing coffee beans seems manageable. The company said on the earnings call that green coffee beans, meaning unroasted, are 10%-15% of its product and distribution costs, and it has hedges build in to its purchasing model.

On the news front, most of April was uneventful until the earnings report came out on April 29.

Starbucks missed estimates on both the top and bottom lines, though management said the turnaround strategy was driving a recovery in the business. Comparable sales in the quarter fell 1%, and revenue declined 2%. However, that stability came at a price, as the company invested in additional labor to drive the “Back to Starbucks” strategy. Adjusted operating margin fell 460 basis points to 8.2%, and adjusted earnings per share were down 40% to $0.41.

Image source: Getty Images.

What’s next for Starbucks?

CEO Brian Niccol brings a strong track record to the business, having come from Chipotle, and he deserves investor patience as the turnaround moves along.

The macro headwinds could pose an additional challenge to the recovery, but Niccol’s optimism about the recovery shouldn’t be overlooked.

Shares of the online housing brokerage Opendoor Technologies (OPEN -4.13%) plunged 23% this week, according to data compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence, after the latest data showed that housing sales slowed to their lowest pace since 2009.

Housing inventory climbed quickly, but sales slowed as potential homebuyers shunned high prices, elevated interest rates, and economic uncertainty. With an unpredictable macroeconomic climate, investors are concerned that more pain could be ahead for the housing market and Opendoor.

Image source: Getty Images.

A cooling climate

The housing market showed its first dramatic signs of slowing down in March, with existing-home sales dropping 5.9% during the month compared to February. The monthly drop also represented a 2.4% decline year over year, according to data from Realtor.com.

Mortgage rates have fluctuated over the past month since President Trump announced aggressive tariffs on U.S. trading partners. But despite some temporary dips, they’re still elevated, sitting at around 6.8% for a 30-year mortgage.

While not historically high, mortgage rates are much higher than they were a few years ago, and they’ve remained stubborn during a historic rise in housing prices. For example, the median home sales price has spiked nearly 27% over the past five years to $416,900.

These rapidly accelerating home prices were fine when buyers felt more confident in the economy and their jobs, but that’s changed recently. A recent survey found that consumer confidence in where the economy is headed is at a 12-year low.

All of this is bad news for Opendoor, whose platform connects buyers and sellers. Opendoor also buys, flips, and sells homes, so the slowdown in homebuying is likely to hurt the business. Opendoor’s revenue fell 26% in 2024 to $5.2 billion, and its net loss widened to $392 million. Those figures were reported before the latest housing data, meaning Opendoor could face further downward pressure.

Not a great trajectory

With sales falling in 2024 and losses widening, Opendoor was already struggling. However, the latest housing market data indicates that tougher times could come.

Even if Trump’s tariffs don’t spur a recession, it’s evident that with consumers worried about their jobs and about price increases on goods due to tariffs, they’re holding off on house purchases. And with no end in sight to the tariff uncertainty, Opendoor may continue to be affected by this negative homebuyer sentiment.

Rigetti Computing (RGTI -8.98%), one of a group of high-flying quantum computing stocks, took a dive last month as a combination of news items and macroeconomic concerns weighed on the stock.

Shares of Rigetti, which currently has negligible revenue, have soared in recent months on investor excitement over quantum computing, but the stock remains a speculative play. Because of that, the stock is highly volatile, so it wasn’t surprising that it didn’t take much for the stock to fall 36% last month, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

As you can see from the chart below, the stock fell over most of the month as investor hopes for Rigetti and its start-up quantum computing peers soured.

RGTI data by YCharts.

Rigetti faces doubts

There wasn’t any significant company-specific news out on Rigetti during the month, but the company did receive some bullish notes from Wall Street analysts. On Feb. 10, Alliance Global Partners raised its price target on the stock from $5.50 to $15 and maintained a buy rating on the stock. Alliance noted that the company was expected to be awarded a DARPA Quantum Benchmarking contract last month, which would validate the company’s position.

The biggest news from the quantum computing sector last month came on Feb. 19 when Microsoft unveiled its Majorana 1, a quantum chip that it says will lead to quantum computers capable of solving industrial-scale problems in years rather than decades, the timeline that other tech CEOs have estimated.

Quantum stocks like Rigetti briefly rallied on the news, even though it establishes another big tech giant as a formidable competitor in quantum computing. However, the stock rapidly declined at the end of the month as investor sentiment continued to decline around weak consumer-confidence readings, sticky inflation, and the threat of tariffs, which are set to go into effect on goods imported from Canada and Mexico on Tuesday.

Image source: Getty Images.

What’s next for Rigetti Computing

Rigetti will report fourth-quarter earnings on March 5 after the market closes. Analysts are expecting the company to report revenue of just $2.5 million, which is down 26% from a year ago. That shows that Rigetti is still in its infancy, and quantum computing has yet to have a meaningful impact in the business world.

The company continues to develop its technology, and it could have a meanignful business years from now, but high expectations are priced into the stock as its market cap is over $2 billion after last month’s sell-off. The company is also vulnerable to macroheadwinds as the stock is likely to fall if the economy weakens.

Keep an eye on Q4 earnings, but it will probably take more than that to give the stock a meaningful boost in the current macroenvironment.