Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

BTC is pinned near $111,000 with volatility compressed to multi-month lows, the kind of calm that tends to precede decisive moves. Traders know what could break the lull: September’s U.S. inflation data and the Fed’s rate decision a week later.

Prediction markets are leaning heavily toward easing. Polymarket bettors are assigning an 82% chance of a 25-basis-point cut on Sept. 17, leaving only slim odds for a deeper move or no change. Beyond that, October expectations are fractured, with nearly even probabilities for another cut or a pause. That divergence explains why volatility, though absent now, is unlikely to stay that way.

“Markets often look calm just before they move. Bitcoin is trading in one of its tightest ranges in months, and volatility across crypto has compressed to multi-month lows,” said Gracie Lin, OKX Singapore CEO. “With U.S. inflation data like Core CPI out on Sept. 11 and the Fed’s much-anticipated rate decision just ahead, this quiet period is setting the stage for the next decisive move. Whether the catalyst is an upside inflation surprise or a dovish signal from the Fed, what’s clear is that the absence of volatility is rarely permanent in digital assets; history shows the market will find its next direction soon enough.”

If a cut pulls money-market returns lower, the opportunity cost of sitting in cash rises, which is the pivot market maker Enflux says could send flows toward crypto.

“The real debate now is not if cuts come, but whether liquidity deployment shifts into BTC, ETH, and even riskier assets,” the firm told CoinDesk.

In other words, the Fed’s cut may grab headlines, but the real trade is whether sidelined cash rotates into digital assets — a shift that could fuel the return of volatility.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin has dipped slightly intraday, trading between approximately $110,812 and $113,237, reflecting short-term volatility amid shifting investor sentiment and broader crypto market dynamics.

ETH: ETH is modestly up intraday, with a range between roughly $4,279 and $4,379, signaling steady demand and some renewed investor interest. Range, however, is limited with modest ETF flows and traders awaiting the Fed’s next move.

Gold: Gold is rallying to record highs, fueled by mounting expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a weakening U.S. dollar, and renewed safe-haven demand.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific stocks opened mostly higher Wednesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.2%, as investors awaited China’s August inflation data showing an expected 0.2% CPI drop and a smaller 2.9% PPI decline.

S&P 500: U.S. stocks closed at record highs Tuesday, with the S&P 500 up 0.27% to 6,512.61, as investors looked past a record payroll revision that cut 911,000 jobs from prior figures.

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Bad news has just been bad news over the past 24 hours. Friday’s weak U.S. jobs report bolstered bets on deeper Fed cuts, but bitcoin BTC$110,542.77 hasn’t played along.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value remains heavy below $112,000, instead of rallying on the prospect of easier monetary policy as many had anticipated. The inability to find upside suggests potential for a deeper sell-off ahead.

NFP shock

Job seekers had a tough time in August as the nonfarm payrolls revealed just 22,000 job additions, significantly less than the Dow Jones’ projection of 75,000. The report also revised lower the combined job creation over June and July by 21,000. Notably, the revised June figure showed a net loss of 13,000.

Nine sectors, including manufacturing, construction, wholesale trade, and professional services, registered job losses, while health services and leisure and hospitality were bright spots.

The Kobeissi Letter called the jobs report “absolutely insane.” The newsletter service described the downward revisions in prior months as a sign of a broken system and the labour market entering recession territory.

Following the jobs data, the probability of a Fed rate cut at the Sept. 17 meeting surged to 100%, and the odds of a 50-basis-point cut jumped to 12%. The likelihood of additional rate cuts in November and December also increased, sending Treasury yields lower.

The upcoming revisions to earlier jobs reports are expected to add fuel to the rate cut bets. “The BLS will announce annual benchmark revisions on Tuesday, and they are expected to point to even weaker job growth earlier. Some surveys suggest between 500k and 1 mln jobs could be revised away,” Bannockburn Global Forex’s Managing Director and Chief Market Strategist, Marc Chandler said in a market update.

BTC’s double top is intact; volatility in Treasury yields may rise

Bitcoin briefly rallied on hopes of a Fed rate cut and softer yields, reaching a high of over $113,300. But the bounce quickly faded, with prices slipping back under $111,982 — the double‑top neckline.

Failing to retake that level underscored the late August double top breakdown and validates the bearish setup, keeping downside risks in focus. Prices crossing below the Ichimoku cloud further validates the bearish outlook, as Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets, noted in a market update.

The first line of support is located around $101,700, which corresponds to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The latest double top breakdown in bitcoin closely mirrors the one from February this year, which led to a significant multi-week sell-off that pushed prices down to around $75,000.

The double top is a bearish reversal chart formation that occurs after an asset has experienced an uptrend. It forms when the price reaches a high point (the first peak), then pulls back to a support level called the neckline. The price then rises again but fails to surpass the first peak, creating a second peak at roughly the same level. The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks below the neckline, signaling that the previous uptrend has lost momentum and a downtrend may follow.

Treasury yields may turn volatile

The bearish technical outlook, presented by the latest double top breakdown, is reinforced by the possibility of a pickup in volatility in Treasury yields, which often leads to financial tightening.

The volatility could pick up in the coming days, as the impending Fed rate cuts could initially send the 10-year yield lower in a positive development for BTC and risk assets. That said, the downside looks limited and could be quickly reversed, much like what happened in late 2024.

Last year, from September through December, the 10-year yield actually rose, even as the Fed began cutting rates, reversing earlier declines that had occurred in the lead-up to September. The 10-year yield bottomed out at 3.6% in mid-September 2024 and then rose to 4.80% by mid-January.

While the labour market today appears significantly weaker than last year, inflation is relatively higher, and fiscal spending continues unabated, both of which mean that the yield could surge following the September rate cut.

“Why the 10yr yield rose from September through December 2024 is open to interpretation, but there was an underpinning of macro resilience, sticky-ish inflation and lots of talk on fiscal largesse as a medium-term risk. This time around, granted, worries on the economy are more intense. But offsetting this are ongoing fiscal concerns, and quite a different inflation dynamic,” analysts at ING said in a note to clients.

August CPI data due next week

When the Fed cut rates last September, the U.S. consumer price index was well below 3%. Since then, it has edged back up to 3%. More importantly, the August CPI data, due next week, is likely to provide further evidence of inflation stickiness.

According to Wells Fargo, the core CPI is likely to have risen by 0.3%, keeping the year-over-year rate at 3.1%. Meanwhile, the headline CPI is forecast to have risen 0.3% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year.

Expectations surrounding possible rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September are nearing peak levels, especially among crypto investors. Historically, Fed rate cuts have often meant the start of a bull run since it signals to investors to take more positions in risk assets such as Bitcoin and crypto. Thus, with only two weeks left to the next FOMC meeting, votes are already coming in for what the Fed will do and how the crypto market will react.

Probability Climbs Above 97%

The CME Watch Tool from the CME Group website is now showing the highest probability so far for a Fed rate cut in September. The percentage had fluctuated over the month of August, rising above 92% and then falling back to 75% again as different developments popped up. However, as the market entered the month of September, sentiment has skewed completely toward the positive, and the probabilities have risen drastically.

Related Reading

Bitcoinist had reported that the probability had fallen to 75% toward the end of August. But now the figure is back again, reaching the highest level so far, ahead of the FOMC announcement. The Fed Watch Tool now reads a 97.6% chance that the Fed will cut rates this September and trigger another bull run.

This figure means that there is now only a 2.4% probability that the Fed would choose to keep rates at the same level as they did the last time. In contrast, there is still a 0% chance that there will be a rate hike this September. In fact, there have not been talks of a Fed rate hike for months now, suggesting that all focus remains on the rate cuts.

How The Crypto Market Could React

Naturally, a Fed rate cut is bullish for both the stock and crypto markets as it allows investors to take on more risks. This triggers a flow of liquidity into the market, driving up prices rapidly, while also increasing the volatility of the market at the same time.

The expectation is that the crypto market could rally off the news, especially as US President Donald Trump has been in support of rate cuts for months now. However, there is also the need to be cautious due to high expectations often leading to dashed hopes.

Related Reading

In a report, the on-chain data analytics platform Santiment revealed that social conversations with the words “Fed”, “rate”, and “cut” had risen to the highest level in almost one year. This suggests a lot of bullishness already surrounding the FOMC meeting. But periods like these have often marked the top, leading to a possible “buy the rumor, sell the news” event.

If the latter is the case, then it would mean that prices could rise leading up to the FOMC meeting and then crash if the announcement is different from expectations. Thus, it would be wise to be cautious around this period, especially with the expectation of high volatility.

Featured image from Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

The Federal Reserve Board announced on Sept. 3 that it will host a payments innovation conference on Oct. 21, where it will discuss stablecoins, DeFi, and tokenization.

The conference will feature panel discussions on the convergence of traditional and decentralized finance, emerging stablecoin use cases and business models, artificial intelligence applications in payments, and tokenization of financial products and services.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller emphasized the conference’s focus on technological advancement, stating that innovation has been a constant in payments to meet the changing needs of consumers and businesses.

Waller noted his anticipation for examining opportunities and challenges presented by new technologies while gathering ideas to improve payment system safety and efficiency.

Building on recent stablecoin focus

The conference follows extensive Federal Open Market Committee discussions on stablecoins during the July 29-30 meeting, where officials analyzed potential financial system impacts following passage of the GENIUS Act.

The comprehensive federal stablecoin framework, signed into law on July 18, established regulatory clarity that FOMC members cited as a driver for projected growth in stablecoin usage.

Fed minutes revealed officials’ recognition of stablecoins’ potential benefits, particularly for payment system efficiency and increased demand for Treasury securities used as collateral.

However, participants expressed concerns about broader banking system implications and emphasized the need for close monitoring of stablecoin backing assets.

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The central bank’s proactive approach reflects a growing acknowledgment of the relevance of digital payment systems to its monetary policy and financial stability responsibilities.

Supportive stance

Governor Waller has consistently supported blockchain-based payment innovation, recently declaring “there is nothing scary” about DeFi operations at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium.

He compared DeFi transactions to conventional debit card purchases, framing smart contracts and distributed ledgers as natural technological evolution rather than disruptive threats.

Waller credited stablecoin development with extending dollar accessibility globally, particularly benefiting high-inflation countries lacking affordable banking services.

He highlighted their potential to “maintain and extend the role of the dollar internationally” through 24/7 availability and rapid transferability.

The October conference represents the Fed’s commitment to understanding how emerging payment technologies might integrate with existing monetary infrastructure while addressing regulatory challenges and opportunities in the evolving digital payments landscape.

..aaaand, we’re back again – malfunctioning the price of bitcoin. Sunday evening Bitcoin Flash Crash soaked a red candle the size of Jupiter. Even more eerie, it continued to fall on Monday morning, falling below $111,000.

Well, in this area, we say no one knows why prices move. but sometimesalthough we… not as much as we would like. Today I will explain two things. Late last week, the last 24 hours of Shenangan and Fed Jerome Powell said.

Unruly Bitcoin Price

The end of Sunday (European time) was pretty disgusting:

When a chart looks like that, it’s hard to say “no one knows.” someone I know I slammed the price of Bitcoin at around 3,000 in just a few minutes. If it’s not a specific macro event like last week, then eating through such an order form is a) Large scale Orders, and – equivalent to the same – b) mass Liquidation.

Yesterday there were both signs.

or…

This is an undeveloped market, and how small we are and how illegal the Bitcoin market is is ridiculous. still You can be upset by individual market actors. (As always, at Bitcoinland, there are Schmacks who are willing to turn the verification into bad Things to do good thing. )

The immediate 2.5% drop in Bitcoin prices last night could be one-time due to whale sales and liquidation, but the progressive oblique movement between the night and Monday morning (Bitcoin prices fall below $111,000) is far more worrying. Ignore the big, noisy whales… Is wth happening? Why are we dying slowly? When we should win, son!

All the macro arrows in the world are heading in the right direction: Why there is a Bitcoin price trading underin this What if the range and sanity ratings are doubled or tripled from here…? (No, we I didn’t do it Below $111,000 As or because Or, in relation to Metaplanet, we announce the purchase).

The price does whatever it wants. Shit will do anything.

Bitcoin Price Therapy absolutely Necessary: ​​Bitcoin prices do whatever you want without considering sane or reasonable valuation. Don’t care in the world for the most bullish situation. The biggest pain, I heard it said. Even Saylor’s million dollar averaging produced many dents:

One of these magical tea leaf reading techniques (128-day moving average) is that today’s Bitcoin Magazine Pro team is $108,500. Saylor et al already sells kidneys and chairs, so what remains?

What’s more interesting/terrifying is that it keeps falling afterwards and hits a new low. Our most scoop-like explanation is that all these shits (BTC Inc owner Bailey recently incinerated $41 million) are doing one. Some of the liquidated red candles have slow, crumbled, time-weighted prices.

Certain Cypherpunk OGs seem to know the structure.

Bitcoin Price and Powell’s Intestines

Sometimes we actually (some kind) do We know what happened in the market – Eastern August 22nd, 10am East: Released on the Fed’s website was a statement/upgrade to the Fed’s monetary policy framework. It was widely interpreted as a future easing of card monetary policy. how Do we know this? All (hard) asset jump moments and dollar index It’s fallen:

• 9:59:49…Bitcoin price = $112,393, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro charts.
• 10:00:49, 1 minute later, it’s 113459…
• A few minutes later, we reached 115,000 and Bitcoin prices rose 2.3% on the news.

This is the kind of shit that drives the market, and instantI am sure this is the cause due to the massive movement.

(Reference: 9.59, DXY = 98.7; 2 minutes later, 98.15; 1 minute, 97.8; That’s 1%.

Now we found the source – the release of Powell’s speeches and statements. Which of What shocked market was his statement a little?

What happens with such releases, or inflation or unemployment due to BLS – means that simple trading algorithms can be updated immediately, valuing seconds and often followed by a second-second trading effect. After 10, 20, 30 minutes involving human and intellectual evaluation, the movement itself often reverses. After all, it was all nothing. This time, it wasn’t because Bitcoin was trading high over the weekend (until someone ruined the fun on Sunday).

Powell’s statement last week revealed that

• Inflation is rising a little, but it is under control and comes down
• GDP growth has slowed significantly
• The unemployment rate was stable and balanced (though a “curiosity balance” in which both supply and demand fall together).
• …and they discard this whole erroneous idea average Inflation targets (over periods that no one has specified).

“In the near future, the risk to inflation will be leaning upside down, lowering the risk to employment — a challenging situation.”

However, Powell concluded that these risks “may ensure that we adjust our policy stance.”

Within minutes and hours of the speech and statement release, Bitcoin price peaked at $117,000, then returned to $116,000. This is a market participants organically analysing and assessing what this new state means.

This is what I meant to say, “No one knows why.” still Hold: No one knows Which part The statement in Powell’s statement was important. New information is always mixed, Expectations Market participants were in, but rarely communicated what they were. What we do when we play these catch-up, ad-hoc, case descriptions is playing games after streamlining. It’s not that impressive.

It’s totally pathetic. Bitcoiner needs to be rich and prosperous, but not poor and distraught.

Bitcoin price therapy. Meet Bitcoin in Hong Kong, Asia.

Bitcoin surged by 5% (approximately $5,000) following Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium, sparking fresh momentum in a bull market that has been quietly crushed since early 2024.

For most of this cycle, Bitcoin rise has been countering the headwinds of financial tightening. The Bull Run story began in June 2023 when BlackRock submitted a Spot Bitcoin ETF application. Since then, despite persistent inflation concerns, hiking rates and constant talk of “longer and higher,” Bitcoin has been shaking macro resistance and marching higher.

You could potentially mark a turning point today. Powell’s speech hinted at what the market was waiting for. After nearly two years of restrictive policy aimed at cooling inflation, the Fed chair acknowledged that conditions had changed. Inflation has cooled from its peak, slowing economic growth, and the strain of stricter monetary policy shows a crack in the system (see Recent Jobs).

For the first time in this cycle, Powell’s tone suggested that the Fed was ready to ease the grip.

The market response was immediate. Bitcoin ripped higher because traders were aware of what this meant (~$117,000 at this time of writing). Risk assets thrive when the central bank flashes, and Bitcoin, the most difficult money in existence, tends to be the fastest horse when the Fed runs through the cave into its own new reality.

This is more than just a short-term meeting. It could be an inflection point that turns into a stable, resilient bull market. The Fed’s attitude was a damper that remains in the advantages of Bitcoin. If Powell and FOMC signal a shift to accommodation, Bitcoin is standing to disproportionately benefit.

We’re still early. This bull market was born in the shadow of BlackRock’s ETF filing and matured by merciless skepticism and macrodrugs. Now, as policy winds begin to blow, the path forward may be similar to the previous parabolic stage of the Bitcoin cycle.

The message from Jackson Hole is clear: The Fed is forgiving. Bitcoin has already responded. And if history is a guide, real fireworks may be on the way.

This article is a take. The opinions expressed are entirely the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Bitcoin (BTC) grew to account for about 1.7% of global money, a figure that includes aggregate M2 money supply data for all major fiat currencies, the largest minor currencies, and gold’s market cap, according to River, a Bitcoin financial services company.

“In 16 years, Bitcoin went up to 1.7% of global money,” River said. The company weighed Bitcoin’s market cap against a $112.9 trillion basket of fiat currencies and $25.1 trillion in hard money, which excluded silver, platinum, and exotic metals like palladium.

The data assumes Bitcoin has a market capitalization of $2.4 trillion, which it topped earlier in August. However, BTC’s current market cap is approximately $2.29 trillion, which brings its total share of global money down to around 1.66% at the time of this writing.

Bitcoin and gold continue to claim a greater share of the global money pie as central banks around the world inflate their fiat currencies through excessive money printing, destroying purchasing power and driving investors to hard money alternatives.

Related: Crypto sentiment returns to Greed as Bitcoin and Ether spike on Fed speech

US Federal Reserve chair signals coming rate cuts and continued monetary expansion

United States Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell delivered a keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming on Friday, signaling impending interest rate cuts and continued monetary expansion. Powell said:

“Our policy rate is now 100 basis points (BPS) closer to neutral than it was a year ago, and the stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance.”

The price of Bitcoin surged by over 2% in response to Powell’s speech, hitting a price of about $116,000 per BTC on Friday.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies tend to appreciate during periods of monetary expansion, as the price of digital assets continues to correlate with global liquidity levels.

75% of investors now anticipate an interest rate cut of 25 basis points in September, according to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group.

Magazine: Baby boomers worth $79T are finally getting on board with Bitcoin

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