February – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Thu, 28 Aug 2025 12:18:38 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.7 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 February – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 Solana (SOL) Just Did Something It Hasn’t Done Since February https://earlybirdsinvest.com/solana-sol-just-did-something-it-hasnt-done-since-february/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/solana-sol-just-did-something-it-hasnt-done-since-february/#respond Thu, 28 Aug 2025 12:18:38 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/solana-sol-just-did-something-it-hasnt-done-since-february/

Solana’s (SOL) recent price action has demonstrated a classic technical breakout pattern. The popular cryptocurrency climbed above the $213 threshold after rising by over 6% in the past 24 hours and is testing resistance levels that have held since February of this year.

This breakthrough potentially points to the end of a months-long consolidation phase.

SOL Breakout

According to Santiment’s latest findings, the accompanying retail sentiment data reveals an extraordinary bullish tilt. In fact, a positive commentary was found to be dominating negative opinions at a 5.8:1 ratio. This is the strongest bullish sentiment reading in nearly three months.

While such technical breakouts often lead to steady upward momentum, the extreme nature of retail optimism in SOL, however, needs careful monitoring, as euphoric sentiment levels can sometimes precede market corrections.

Experts from B2BINPAY had recently stated that SOL’s jump back above $200 was “more than just a speculative pop,” which aligned with strong on-chain metrics. Blockchain throughput also witnessed significant growth since last month, alongside increased DeFi total value locked as well as expanding NFT activity and GameFi adoption.

Solana War-Chests

Momentum is not just limited to charts and on-chain metrics. For instance, Sharps Technology announced a $400 million treasury strategy centered on Solana’s native token. The medical device maker signed a letter of intent with the Solana Foundation to acquire $50 million worth of SOL tokens through a private investment in public equity (PIPE) deal. The purchase will be made at a 15% discount to SOL’s 30-day average price.

Additionally, Galaxy Digital, Multicoin Capital, and Jump Crypto are raising $1 billion to create a dedicated SOL treasury. Pantera Capital is also betting big on Solana. Reports claim that the crypto hedge fund is aiming to raise $1.25 billion by converting a Nasdaq-listed firm into “Solana Co.” The plan includes $500 million upfront and $750 million via warrants, which could potentially create the world’s largest SOL treasury, for now.

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The 1.x Files: February call digest https://earlybirdsinvest.com/the-1-x-files-february-call-digest/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/the-1-x-files-february-call-digest/#respond Thu, 07 Aug 2025 10:42:58 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/the-1-x-files-february-call-digest/

February 26th tl;dc (too long, didn’t call)

Disclaimer: This is a digest of the topics discussed in the recurring Eth1.x research call, and doesn’t represent finalized plans or commitments to network upgrades.

The main topics of this call were:

  • The rough plan for the 1.x research summit in Paris following EthCC
  • The Witness Format
  • The ‘data retrieval problem’

Logistics

The summit to discuss and collaborate on Stateless Ethereum is planned for the weekend following EthCC, which will be an indispensable time for working on the most important and unsolved problems for this effort.

The schedule is not fixed yet, but a rough outline is coming together:

Saturday – After an hour of breakfast and free discussion, we’ll come together to agree on goals and scope for the summit. Then there is about 4 hours reserved for organized presentations and ‘deep dives’ on particular topics of importance. In the later afternoon/evening there will be another hour+ of free time and informal discussion.

Sunday – The same as before, but with only 2 hours of structured presentations, to encourage attendees to break out into groups and work on the various research or implementation topics for the rest of the Summit. Finally, there will be a concluding discussion to map out next steps and revise the tech tree.

It should be stated that this research summit is not focused on public or general engagement, in favor of making meaningful progress on the work ahead. This is not meant to be a spectator’s event, and indeed there is some expectation that attendees will have ‘done their homework’ so that the short amount of time for discussion is efficiently spent.

Technical discussion

Witness Format

The first topic of technical discussion was centered around the recently submitted draft witness specification, which will help to define implementation for all client teams.

The witness specification is really comprised of two parts: Semantics and Format. This organization has the desirable property of cleanly separating two aspects of the witness that might have different goals.

Semantics are a bit harder to get to grips with, and are concerned merely with the abstract methods of taking one group of objects and transforming them into other objects. The witness semantics are in simple formal language describing how to get from inputs to outputs, leaving all implementation details abstracted away. For example, questions about data serialization or parsing are not relevant to the witness semantics, as they are more of an implementation detail. The high-level goal of defining the semantics of witnesses in a formal way is to have a completely un-ambiguous reference for client teams to implement without a lot of back-and-forth. Admittedly, starting with formal semantics and working towards implementation (rather than say, coding out a reference implementation) is experimental, but it’s hoped that it will save effort in the long run and lead to much more robust and diverse Stateless Ethereum implementations. Format is much more concrete, and specifies real details that affect interoperability between different implementations.

The witness format is where things like the size of code chunks will be defined, and a good witness format will help different implementations stay inter-operable, and in general terms describes encoding and decoding of data. The format is not specifically geared at reducing witness size, rather at keeping the client implementations memory-efficient, and maximizing the efficiency of generation and transmission. For example, the current format can be computed in real time while walking through the state trie without having to buffer or process whole chunks, allowing the witness to be split into small chunks and streamed.

As a first draft, there is expected to be some refactoring before and after Paris as other researchers give feedback, and already there is a request for a bit more content on design motivations and high-level explanation concerning the above content. It was also suggested in the call that the witness format be written in about in an upcoming “The 1x Files” post, which seems like a great idea (stay tuned for that in the coming weeks).

Transaction validation, an interlude

Moving towards less concrete topics of discussion, one fundamental issue was brought up in the chat that warrants discussion: A potential problem with validating transactions in a stateless paradigm.

Currently, a node performs two checks on all transactions it sees on the network. First, the transaction nonce is checked to be consistent with all transactions from that account, and discarded if it is not valid. Second the account balance is checked to ensure that the account has enough gas money. In a stateless paradigm, these checks cannot be performed by anyone who does not have the state, which opens up a potential vector for attack. It’s eminently possible that the format of witnesses could be made to include the minimum amount of state data required to validate transactions from witnesses only, but this needs to be looked into further.

The transaction validation problem is actually related to a more general problem that Stateless Ethereum must solve, which is tentatively being called “The data retrieval problem”. The solution for data retrieval will also solve the transaction validation problem, so we’ll turn to that now.

Data retrieval in Stateless Ethereum

The full scope of this challenge is outlined in an ethresearch forum post, but the idea relatively straightforward and built from a few assumptions:

It’s possible to, within the current eth protocol, build a stateless client using existing network primitives. This is sort of what beam sync is, with the important distinction that beam sync is meant to keep state data and ‘backfill’ it to eventually become a full node. A stateless client, by contrast, throws away state data and relies entirely on witnesses to participate in the network.

The current protocol and network primitives assume that there is a high probability that connected peers keep valid state, i.e. that connected peers are full nodes. This assumption holds now because most nodes are indeed full nodes with valid state. But this assumption cannot be relied upon if a high proportion of the network is stateless. The current protocol also does not specify a way for a new connected node to see if a connected peer has or does not have a needed piece of state data.

Stateless clients have better UX than full nodes. They will sync faster, and allow for near instantaneous connection to the network. It’s therefore reasonable to assume that over time more and more nodes will move towards the stateless end of the spectrum. If this is the case, then the assumption of data availability will become less and less sound with a higher proportion of stateless nodes on the network. There is a theoretical ‘tipping point’ where stateless nodes outnumber stateful nodes by far, and a random assortment of peers has a sufficiently low probability of at least one holding the desired piece of state. At that (theoretical) point, the network breaks.

The kicker here is that if the network allows state to be gotten on demand (as it does now), a stateless client can (and will) be made on the same protocol. Extending this reasoning to be more dramatic: Stateless clients are inevitable, and the data retrieval problem will come along with them. It follows then, that significant changes to the eth network protocol will need to be made in order to categorically prevent the network from reaching that tipping point, or at least push it further away through client optimizations.

There are a lot of open-ended topics to discuss here, and importantly there is disagreement amongst the 1x researchers about exactly how far the network is from that theoretical breaking point, or if the breaking point exists at all. This highlights the need for more sophisticated approaches to network simulation, as well as the need for defining the problem clearly at the research summit before working towards a solution.

À tout à l’heure !

Exciting things will undoubtedly be unfolding as a result of the in-person research to be conducted in Paris in the coming fortnight, and the next few installments of “The 1.x Files” will be devoted to documenting and clearly laying out that work.

The summit in Paris is very nearly at full capacity, so if you have not filled out the RSVP form to attend please get in touch with Piper to see if there is space.

As always, if you’re interested in participating in the Stateless Ethereum research effort, come join us on ethresear.ch, get invited to the telegram group, and reach out to @gichiba and/or @JHancock on twitter.

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“1 BTC Per Day” Is Over: IMF Reveals El Salvador Halted Bitcoin Buys Since February https://earlybirdsinvest.com/1-btc-per-day-is-over-imf-reveals-el-salvador-halted-bitcoin-buys-since-february/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/1-btc-per-day-is-over-imf-reveals-el-salvador-halted-bitcoin-buys-since-february/#respond Mon, 21 Jul 2025 12:36:25 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/1-btc-per-day-is-over-imf-reveals-el-salvador-halted-bitcoin-buys-since-february/

Journalist

Hassan Shittu

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About Author

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El Salvador has not made any new Bitcoin purchases since February 2025, according to a new report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on July 15.

The disclosure directly contradicts President Nayib Bukele’s long-standing public claim that his government has been buying one Bitcoin per day.

The IMF’s findings were included in the first formal review of the country’s Bitcoin program since El Salvador secured a $1.4 billion loan agreement in December 2024.

IMF Lauds El Salvador’s Bitcoin Reforms, Confirms Policy Shift

A letter signed by Central Bank President Douglas Pablo Rodríguez Fuentes and Finance Minister Jerson Rogelio Posada Molina confirmed that “the stock of Bitcoins held by the public sector remains unchanged.”

The IMF report also revealed that El Salvador is moving to scale back its public involvement in Bitcoin-related services. One of the key changes includes reducing the role of the Chivo wallet, the state-backed digital asset platform, and ultimately ending its operation by July 2025.

The Chivo wallet, once promoted as a centerpiece of the country’s Bitcoin adoption, will be shut down from public control, and the IMF clarified that while the wallet will remain operational, it must be fully privatized and no longer run on government funds.

The report noted that although on-chain activity shows BTC moving between wallets, these are not new acquisitions. Instead, the transactions reflect internal transfers between cold and hot wallets.

The IMF emphasized that these movements had led to a “misinterpretation” of El Salvador’s Bitcoin activity. Officials further argue that reallocated reserves or assets obtained through legal seizures do not qualify as state-backed Bitcoin buys.

According to the El Salvador Bitcoin Office, El Salvador currently holds about 6,244 BTC, worth roughly $742 million.

While some reports suggested an 8 BTC increase last week, the IMF attributes this to technical accounting, not fresh buys.

The IMF praised the updated Bitcoin policy for reducing fiscal risk and strengthening transparency. It said these steps were helping to stabilize inflation and restore macroeconomic stability in the country.

Official vs. On-Chain: The Bitcoin Mystery Behind El Salvador’s Treasury

Despite growing public interest in sovereign Bitcoin reserves, the IMF is pushing El Salvador to treat BTC as a financial asset with risk exposure, not as a currency.

As part of the agreement, Bitcoin is no longer considered mandatory legal tender.

While the Salvadoran government insists it is still “stacking sats,” the IMF’s statement indicates otherwise. The divergence in interpretation has added fuel to a broader debate around sovereign BTC holdings.

Some blockchain analysts, including firms like Arkham, have observed steady 1 BTC per day transfers from exchanges like Binance and Bitfinex to addresses reportedly linked to the Salvadoran government. Still, whether these are official purchases or private transactions remains unclear.

Other governments and companies continue to expand their Bitcoin treasuries. Japan’s Metaplanet recently acquired 797 Bitcoin for $93.6 million. On Tuesday, the firm announced plans to purchase a digital bank to expand its crypto services.

Meanwhile, The Blockchain Group in France and the UK’s Smarter Web Company added over 340 BTC combined. Strategy, the first Bitcoin treasury company, posted $14 billion in unrealized gains in Q2 2025.

Compared to this international trend, El Salvador’s quiet pause signals a shift. The IMF is scheduled to conduct further reviews in September and December 2025 to track compliance.

For now, El Salvador’s public BTC balance appears to be holding steady, with no new government-funded purchases. The IMF says the country is sticking to its agreement. The Bukele administration says otherwise.

With Bitcoin’s price nearing record highs, the divide between official reporting and on-chain speculation is likely to grow. The next few months may prove decisive in shaping the future of sovereign crypto strategy.


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Grantee Roundup: February 2021 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/grantee-roundup-february-2021/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/grantee-roundup-february-2021/#respond Thu, 03 Jul 2025 18:12:05 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/grantee-roundup-february-2021/

This month, we’ve got the latest on from two groups doing great work to grow the Ethereum ecosystem!

Couger for education and community building in Japan

Specializing in AI, Couger might seem like an unlikely champion of Ethereum education! However, Couger has not only explored the intersection of Ethereum and AI and piloted a zero knowledge voting protocol – they’ve also become avid educators and collaborators in their native Japan. Couger received a sponsorship in 2020 for their ETHTerakoya meetups as well as a series of workshops and working groups. Couger was recently awarded a second grant to continue and expand upon their previous work, including:

  • ID x Voting x Blockchain” working group bringing together corporate, technical and legal professionals to work on open standards and proofs of concept: meeting notes in Japanese and English
  • Public workshop presenting findings of the IDxVoting working group meetings: notes in Japanese and English and full video of the presentation (split into part 1 and part 2)
  • Working group on eth2 convened in November 2020: notes in Japanese and English
  • Planned commmunity building initiatives targeting students, enterprise and general public awareness

Watch ethereum-terakoya.org for upcoming events and meeting notes. We’re looking forward to seeing these initiatives develop, and continuing to expand our support for Japan’s growing Ethereum ecosystem!

MetaCartel for post-hackathon support

The MetaCartel DAO is a community of builders working to accelerate the growth of the Ethereum ecosystem, particularly at the application layer. In 2020 MetaCartel put special focus on helping hackathon participants to continue developing software and dapps after the hackathon is over. ESP grant funds were awarded in the form of a contribution to the MetaCartel DAO to be allocated toward post-hackathon support, particularly for projects emerging from the ETHOnline virtual hackathon.

In addition to providing mentorship as teams refine their products and build sustainable business models, MetaCartel DAO gave small grants to ETHOnline projects including:

  • Llama, a crypto community treasury hub
  • Mindful, a platform automating portfolio rebalancing and dollar cost averaging
  • Overlay, a derivatives protocol using on-chain oracles to enable trading on data streams

Keep track of MetaCartel’s many initiatives, not to mention their notorious memes, on Twitter @Meta_Cartel or via their Substack newsletter.

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U.S. Stocks Lose $11 Trillion Since February as Recession Fears Mount Over Trump Tariffs https://earlybirdsinvest.com/u-s-stocks-lose-11-trillion-since-february-as-recession-fears-mount-over-trump-tariffs/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/u-s-stocks-lose-11-trillion-since-february-as-recession-fears-mount-over-trump-tariffs/#respond Sun, 06 Apr 2025 11:04:28 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/u-s-stocks-lose-11-trillion-since-february-as-recession-fears-mount-over-trump-tariffs/

U.S. stock markets have experienced a staggering $11 trillion wipeout since February 19, with losses accelerating on April 4 following heightened concerns over President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff measures.

The single-day market loss amounted to $3.25 trillion—exceeding the total valuation of the global cryptocurrency market, which stood at $2.68 trillion at the time.

Among major tech players, dubbed the “Magnificent 7,” Tesla led the plunge, falling 10.42%. Nvidia and Apple also saw steep losses, dropping 7.36% and 7.29% respectively, according to TradingView data.

Nasdaq 100 Falls 6%, Slips Into Bear Market Amid Broad Sell-Off

The widespread sell-off sent the Nasdaq 100 tumbling 6% on the day, pushing the index officially into bear market territory.

The Kobeissi Letter, a financial insights platform, described April 4 as the worst day for U.S. equities since March 2020.

“U.S. stocks have now erased a massive $11 trillion since February 19,” Kobeissi said in an April 4 post on X, adding that the odds of a recession now exceed 60%.

The platform called Trump’s April 2 tariff policy announcement “historic” and warned that if such measures persist, a recession may become unavoidable.

The executive order signed by Trump imposes a 10% baseline tariff on all imported goods and introduces reciprocal tariffs aimed at leveling trade imbalances.

Trump said the move targets the disproportionate tariffs imposed on U.S. exports by other countries.

While traditional markets slump, Bitcoin has shown notable resilience. At the time of publication, BTC was trading around $83,749, down just 0.16% over the past week, according to CoinMarketCap.

Some traders have pointed to Bitcoin’s stability as a potential hedge against macroeconomic volatility.

“Bitcoin doesn’t appear to care one bit about tariff wars and markets tanking,” said technical analyst Urkel. Even longtime crypto skeptics are beginning to take notice.

“I’ve hated on Bitcoin in the past,” admitted stock market commentator Dividend Hero, “but seeing it hold steady while stocks collapse is very interesting to me.”

Trump Administration is Manipulating Stock Markets to Cut Rates: Anthony Pompliano

Last month, Bitcoin commentator Anthony Pompliano said that the Trump administration may be deliberately engineering market turmoil to pressure Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell into lowering interest rates.

He hypothesised that President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are attempting to crash asset prices, forcing the Fed’s hand to reduce rates.

Pompliano, the founder and CEO of Professional Capital Management and host of The Pomp Podcast, claims that lowering interest rates is crucial to avoid the need to refinance $7 trillion in upcoming U.S. debt obligations.

“Trump and his team are intentionally crashing the market,” he wrote. “Is this a master plan or are we watching uncontrolled destruction?”

The theory comes as Powell recently refused to cut rates despite Trump’s repeated calls for lower borrowing costs.

In January, the Fed held rates steady at 4.25% to 4.5%, maintaining its cautious stance amid inflation concerns.

The post U.S. Stocks Lose $11 Trillion Since February as Recession Fears Mount Over Trump Tariffs appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Ethereum Whale Activity Plummets as Large Transactions Drop 63.8% Since Late February https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ethereum-whale-activity-plummets-as-large-transactions-drop-63-8-since-late-february/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ethereum-whale-activity-plummets-as-large-transactions-drop-63-8-since-late-february/#respond Wed, 02 Apr 2025 17:52:25 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/ethereum-whale-activity-plummets-as-large-transactions-drop-63-8-since-late-february/

Ethereum has been facing a challenging period, with its price falling by nearly 10% over the past week. The cryptocurrency briefly surpassed the $1,900 mark but was unable to maintain momentum and is fighting to remain above it now.

This price drop follows a broader trend of market volatility, which has raised concerns about its price trajectory. This decline in price may be linked to shifting investor sentiment, as on-chain data suggests a notable reduction in large Ethereum transactions.

Ethereum Whales Are Pulling Back

According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez’s latest findings, there has been a significant decline in large Ethereum transactions since February 25, with a reported drop of 63.8%. This decrease was indicative of a notable reduction in whale activity on the network, which suggests that large-scale investors may be pulling back or reallocating their holdings. Interestingly, whales sold 760,000 ETH in the last two weeks alone.

This downturn in whale activity coincides with the actions of a long-term Ethereum holder who recently liquidated their remaining assets.

Lookonchain’s update revealed that an Ethereum OG sold their remaining 2,001 ETH, which is worth around $3.82 million, on April 2nd. The investor originally purchased 5,001 ETH for $1.38 million at $277 per coin back in 2017 and held through Ethereum’s bull run, even when prices soared to $4,878.

Over the past month, however, they began selling and realized a total profit of $8.66 million in the process. At its peak, the investor’s unrealized gains reached as high as $23 million.

All Eyes on Pectra’s Mainnet Launch

Despite the successful finalization of Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade on the Hoodi testnet, the network has struggled to maintain a meaningful rally. Now, all eyes are on the highly anticipated upgrade on mainnet, which combines improvements from the Prague and Electra proposals. It is set to go live on the Ethereum mainnet on April 30, with a tentative activation scheduled for slot 11,599,872.

There is still optimism that the mainnet launch could generate renewed investor interest and potentially trigger a more significant price movement. The timeline for the upgrade is still subject to final approval, with confirmation expected at the next All Core Developers Execution (ACDE) meeting.

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February 2025 Work Progress: Network Upgrades, Fixes & Security Enhancements https://earlybirdsinvest.com/february-2025-work-progress-network-upgrades-fixes-security-enhancements/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/february-2025-work-progress-network-upgrades-fixes-security-enhancements/#respond Thu, 27 Mar 2025 16:27:55 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/february-2025-work-progress-network-upgrades-fixes-security-enhancements/

february-work-progress-report

Horizen (ZEN) v5.0.6 Update

The latest update for Horizen, Zend v5.0.6, is now available. All nodes must upgrade before March 11, 2025, as the previous version (v5.0.5) will be deprecated at block #1730680.

happy_miner

Zend v5.0.6 will remain active until its scheduled deprecation at block #1783180, expected on June 11, 2025.

Key Changes:

  • Extended deprecation height for v5.0.5.
  • New tool introduced to dump address balances (available in Linux packages).

Aeternity (AE) v7.2.0 Update

Aeternity released version 7.2.0, bringing enhancements to security, performance, and network stability.

Key Updates:

  • Improved HC sync stability.
  • Fixed rollback and direct access issues.
  • MacOS builds now support M1/arm64 architecture.

These improvements contribute to a more efficient and stable Aeternity blockchain ecosystem.

Kaspa (KAS) Rusty-Kaspa v0.16.0 Update

The latest stable release of Rusty-Kaspa (v0.16.0) introduces a major database upgrade from v3 to v4. Node operators should be aware that this is a one-way upgrade, meaning downgrading to a previous database version will not be possible.

Database Upgrade Highlights:

  • New data stores for temporary Ghostdag stores.
  • Deprecated high-level Ghostdag data entries removed (now calculated on-the-fly).
  • Parallelized MuHash calculations for improved performance.
  • Support for new transaction introspection opcodes and arithmetic enhancements.

Kaspa (KAS) Block Reward Reduction

As part of the Kaspa Tokenomics and emission schedule, the block reward has been reduced:

  • Previous Block Reward: 69.29 KAS
  • New Block Reward: 65.40 KAS

To estimate profitability after this adjustment, use 2CryptoCalc.

Kaspa mining pools:

Flux (FLUX) v7.2.0 Update

The latest Flux release (v7.2.0) introduces a series of optimizations aimed at improving network efficiency and reducing storage requirements.

Key Changes:

  • Support for Flux OS Arcane image.
  • Database compaction and undo state pruning.
  • Approximately 9GB of data removed, reducing the chain size from 44GB to 35GB.
  • Deprecation capability disabled (Flux Daemon will no longer deprecate).
  • Fixes for displaying payment addresses for P2SH (multisig) Flux Nodes.

These updates enhance the efficiency of Flux nodes and reduce storage overhead, making the network more scalable.

Stay up to date with all the latest mining news and changes by following us on X (Twitter) and Telegram. Happy mining!

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Bitfinex alpha | Market quietly closed books in February. Good March yard! https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-market-quietly-closed-books-in-february-good-march-yard/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-market-quietly-closed-books-in-february-good-march-yard/#respond Wed, 05 Mar 2025 00:47:44 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-market-quietly-closed-books-in-february-good-march-yard/

Bitfinex alpha | Market quietly closed books in February. Good March yard!

Bitcoin was closed in February with a shock cut of 17.39%, ranking second in history, with its worst performance since 2014! Last week, BTC wobbled so strongly, it freely fell 18.4% to $78,617 before it turned on. The main reason for this decline is the record trend of Bitcoin ETFs, with weak capital flows exceeding $1.1 billion on February 25th.

Since the bottom of November 2022 after the collapse of FTX, Bitcoin’s price market adjustments are usually in the 18-22% range, but the February decline from the historic peak of $109,590 in January has expanded to 28.3%-1, the strongest decline since the price market closed.

BTC/USD weekly chart. (Source: Bitfinex)

But the tension hasn’t stopped! On March 2nd, Donald Trump unexpectedly announced plans to set up the Crypto Reserve Fund, growing 20% ​​from the local bottom and over 12% in just one day, creating a strong comeback. However, Sell -Off has pulled Bitcoin back to around $92,000. If information about the US Crypto Fund is still unknown, BTC trends over the coming weeks will depend heavily on the macro context, particularly the S&P 500. Without return cash flow, sustainable growth is extremely vulnerable.

The US economic situation continues to face many challenges. Long-term inflation, consumer beliefs have declined and growth slowed – everything is putting pressure on the Fed. PCE data for January shows that inflation rose 2.5% over the same period, exceeding the Fed’s 2% target. Household expenditures decreased after the holidays, but personal income increased by 0.9%, keeping inflationary pressures at a high level. Furthermore, the cost of service and new import taxes could make it difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates in the near future.

Monthly PCE price fluctuations (source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Consumer psychology is also at the bottom! The consumer confidence index for February fell to 98.3. This was the strongest decline in 3.5 years. The labor market is not particularly positive, and many people have difficulty finding jobs, and there is little hope of new employment opportunities. The escalation of food and housing and the prices of commercial policies are making people more concerned.

Meanwhile, the US economy grew only 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, but slowed compared to 3.1% in the last quarter. The main cause? Extreme winter weather, reduced retail sales, trade policy. Exports and government spending still support the economy, but consumption and business investment have weakened. The trade deficit reached a record $153.3 billion in January, indicating that the US economy still faces many challenges. Without significant policy adjustments, growth in early 2025 may continue to be pessimistic.

Changes in actual GDP and percentage compared to last quarter

Trump’s announcement of U.S. strategic cryptocurrency reserves will include major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, and then includes an enforcement order in January to clarify restrictions on cryptocurrencies and central bank digital currencies. The move confirmed a major shift in government’s approach to digital assets, and before the White House Script Summit on March 7th, it merged its US position as a global leader in cryptocurrency.

At the same time, MetaMask announced plans to integrate Bitcoin and Solana into their wallets. Users will soon be able to interact with these two networks without any other wallets. Solana – Appears thanks to Memecoin Fever – Supported in May, Bitcoin is expected to be available in the third quarter of 2024.

The SEC has confirmed that most Memecoins do not fall under federal securities laws, as they do not generate income or rely on centralized management. But if any project pretends to Memecoin to avoid the law or show signs of fraud, the SEC still handles it. This helps to clarify regulations, but also highlights the risks of the “chicken” project.

Meanwhile, the SEC will delay the decision to allow Cboe to list options agreements for Ethereum ETFs, and will advance a decision in May similar to the requirements for BlackRock’s Ishares Ethereum Trust’s Nasdaq ISE. Since mid-2024, it has collected over $11 billion in net worth.

Wishing you a lucrative trading week!

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]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-market-quietly-closed-books-in-february-good-march-yard/feed/ 0 23297 Why Rigetti Computing Stock Fell 36% in February https://earlybirdsinvest.com/why-rigetti-computing-stock-fell-36-in-february/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/why-rigetti-computing-stock-fell-36-in-february/#respond Tue, 04 Mar 2025 00:18:34 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/why-rigetti-computing-stock-fell-36-in-february/

Rigetti Computing (RGTI -8.98%), one of a group of high-flying quantum computing stocks, took a dive last month as a combination of news items and macroeconomic concerns weighed on the stock.

Shares of Rigetti, which currently has negligible revenue, have soared in recent months on investor excitement over quantum computing, but the stock remains a speculative play. Because of that, the stock is highly volatile, so it wasn’t surprising that it didn’t take much for the stock to fall 36% last month, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

As you can see from the chart below, the stock fell over most of the month as investor hopes for Rigetti and its start-up quantum computing peers soured.

RGTI Chart

RGTI data by YCharts.

Rigetti faces doubts

There wasn’t any significant company-specific news out on Rigetti during the month, but the company did receive some bullish notes from Wall Street analysts. On Feb. 10, Alliance Global Partners raised its price target on the stock from $5.50 to $15 and maintained a buy rating on the stock. Alliance noted that the company was expected to be awarded a DARPA Quantum Benchmarking contract last month, which would validate the company’s position.

The biggest news from the quantum computing sector last month came on Feb. 19 when Microsoft unveiled its Majorana 1, a quantum chip that it says will lead to quantum computers capable of solving industrial-scale problems in years rather than decades, the timeline that other tech CEOs have estimated.

Quantum stocks like Rigetti briefly rallied on the news, even though it establishes another big tech giant as a formidable competitor in quantum computing. However, the stock rapidly declined at the end of the month as investor sentiment continued to decline around weak consumer-confidence readings, sticky inflation, and the threat of tariffs, which are set to go into effect on goods imported from Canada and Mexico on Tuesday.

A round chip design inside electrons circling it.

Image source: Getty Images.

What’s next for Rigetti Computing

Rigetti will report fourth-quarter earnings on March 5 after the market closes. Analysts are expecting the company to report revenue of just $2.5 million, which is down 26% from a year ago. That shows that Rigetti is still in its infancy, and quantum computing has yet to have a meaningful impact in the business world.

The company continues to develop its technology, and it could have a meanignful business years from now, but high expectations are priced into the stock as its market cap is over $2 billion after last month’s sell-off. The company is also vulnerable to macroheadwinds as the stock is likely to fall if the economy weakens.

Keep an eye on Q4 earnings, but it will probably take more than that to give the stock a meaningful boost in the current macroenvironment.

Jeremy Bowman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Microsoft. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Bitfinex alpha | February ends with a whisper. March starts with a bang! https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-february-ends-with-a-whisper-march-starts-with-a-bang/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-february-ends-with-a-whisper-march-starts-with-a-bang/#respond Mon, 03 Mar 2025 21:43:11 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-february-ends-with-a-whisper-march-starts-with-a-bang/

Bitfinex alpha | February ends with a whisper. March starts with a bang!

Bitcoin closed in February, falling at a steep 17.39%, marking its worst performance since 2014 and second in history. There was intense volatility last week, with Bitcoin rising 18.4% to a low of $78,617 before the rebound. This sharp decline was driven primarily by record-breaking Bitcoin ETF spills, peaking on February 25th at over $1.1 billion as the system’s flow weakened.

Since reaching the bottom in November 2022 following the collapse of FTX, Bitcoin’s bull market correction has been in the 18-22% range, but the $109,590 range has been extended to 28.3% from its all-time high in January.

BTC/USD weekly chart. (Source: Bitfinex)

President Donald Trump’s announcement of US crypto sanctuaries on Sunday March 2 rose 20% from the local low, causing a sharp reversal of over 12% that day, but subsequent sales reduced Bitcoin to around $92,000. Markets remain vulnerable and without new institutional influx, sustained bullish momentum may prove elusive.

The US economic situation remains complicated by sustained inflation, reduced consumer reliability, and slower vision formation. Personal Consumption Expense Inflation Data for January revealed a 2.5% increase per year, exceeding the Federal Reserve target of 2%. Despite DIP after normal holiday days of household spending, personal income rose 0.9% in January, maintaining inflationary pressure. Also, rising costs of service and new import duties are expected to further complicate the Fed’s ability to adjust interest rates, with interest rate reductions in the near term unlikely.

Change rate of PCE price index, monthly basis (US Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Consumer sentiment was also a hit, with the conference committee’s consumer confidence index falling to 98.3 in February, marking the sharpest decline in three and a half years. Job market concerns are growing, and more consumers report finding it difficult to find jobs and expecting new opportunities in the coming months. The rise in trade policies and prices for key commodities, including food and housing, continues to erode confidence.

Meanwhile, the US economy expanded at a slower rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from 3.1% in the last quarter. This slowdown is attributed to harsh winter weather, lower retail activity and uncertainty about trade policy. Government spending and exports provided some support, but consumer spending and business investment weakened. The wide trade deficit, which reached a record $153.3 billion in January, further highlights the challenges the economy is facing. With inflationary pressures and declining consumer sentiment continuing, economic growth in early 2025 is expected to continue to be curtailed unless a major policy adjustment or favorable economic situation promotes updated momentum.

Actual GDP, change rate since last quarter

Trump’s announcement of US Crypto Strategic Reserve shows that it will include major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, and will clarify crypto regulations in January while banning central bank digital currency (CBDC). The move will strengthen the US as a global leader in crypto ahead of the White House Script Summit on March 7th, confirming a major change in government approach to digital assets.

Meanwhile, Metamask has announced plans to integrate Bitcoin and Solana into wallets, allowing users to interact with these networks without the need for additional wallets. Seeing rapid adoption due to Memecoins’ popularity, Solana will be supported from May, but Bitcoin support is expected in the third quarter of 2024.

Regulatory-wise, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has made it clear that most Memecoins do not fall under federal securities laws because they do not generate income or rely on management efforts. However, the SEC warns that false labeling or misconduct by projects as memokines to bypass regulations will be subject to legal action. This distinction provides regulatory clarity while highlighting the risks of investing in misleading crypto projects.

Meanwhile, the SEC has again delayed its decision on whether to allow CBOE to list Ether ETF options, pushing the deadline to May. A similar decision is expected in April regarding the Nasdaq ISE request to list BlackRock’s Ishares Ethereum Trust options. The introduction of ETH ETF options is considered an important step towards institutional adoption, especially considering the fact that Spot Ether ETF has already attracted a net worth of $11 billion since its launch in mid-2024.

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