The Rex-Osprey DOGE ETF (DOJE) is slated to launch this Thursday, kicking off a meme coin ETF era in the U.S., according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

The Dogecoin ETF will launch under the Investment Company Act of 1940 — a different framework from the Securities Act of 1933, which typically governs grantor trusts that hold physical commodities or derivatives and marks the first Dogecoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S.

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Dogecoin rallied following the news and is currently up 11% in the last seven days, according to CoinMarketCap data. Dogecoin saw a sharp surge at the very start of the week start, reaching $0.249 on Tuesday following two straight days of gains before retreating.

According to recent analysis by Santiment, Dogecoin large wallets holding 1 million to 10 million DOGE have continued to accumulate since Aug. 25 and intensified this trend just as the likelihood of a Dogecoin ETF began to be probable. This category of addresses now holds 10.91 billion and 7.23% of the Dogecoin supply, nearly at a four-year high.

Dogecoin warning issued

The upcoming Dogecoin ETF launch is no doubt generating excitement from the crypto community and traditional investors. This might spark strong demand from retail and institutional traders as well as increased speculation in the days following the launch, influencing price action.

In this light, Mishaboar, a vocal Dogecoin community member, issued a warning along these lines. Not only the Dogecoin ETF launch but the Fed’s interest rate decision at the upcoming September meeting scheduled for 16th and 17th of this month might shape investor sentiment in the days and weeks ahead.

Mishaboar cautions along these lines, predicting periods of extreme volatility in the next weeks and months ahead. He issued a recommendation to traders and investors on trading alone with money they can afford to lose, and also to take profits along the way. Likewise, they should stay away from leverage and derivatives at all costs, so as not to lose everything.

As shown in our previous market review, altcoins are still struggling. The market is moving toward an infliction point as the next move could be fundamental for multiple assets. Solana is showing signs of rally exhaustion, Ethereum is entering a potential stalemate. But despite the negative altcoin scene, Bitcoin might be pushing higher with a new bullish pattern.

Bitcoin’s key pattern

Bitcoin might be forming the cup-and-handle, one of the most well-known bullish patterns in technical analysis. Although not yet confirmed, the pattern appears on the daily chart, indicating that after weeks of volatile price action, digital gold may be getting ready for a brief reversal.

BTC fell, consolidated and then steadily recovered to retest resistance levels close to $114,000 during the cup part of the pattern, which seems to have formed between mid-August and early September. The subsequent brief decline is comparable to the start of the handle, a period of consolidation that frequently comes before a breakout. Key factors right now are:

• Technically speaking, Bitcoin might surpass the $114,000 resistance and aim for the $118,000-$120,000 range if the handle completes and buyers enter with conviction.
• The 50-day EMA, which has been capping rallies in recent weeks, is in that zone.
• Following a correction that pulled Bitcoin from highs above $124,000, a successful breakout would both confirm the cup-and-handle and reestablish bullish momentum. The setup is far from risk-free, though.
• Bitcoin is susceptible to a deeper retracement toward $104,000, the 200-day EMA, and a critical structural level for long-term investors if the pattern fails to hold the $110,000-$108,000 support area.

Short-term traders of Bitcoin should monitor the $114,000 neckline. BTC’s next leg higher could be launched from current consolidation if a breakout above it solidifies the mini cup-and-handle formation.

Ethereum’s pivotal level

The price structure of Ethereum is at a turning point. Ethereum has deviated from its steady wave-like pattern of higher highs and higher lows for the first time since its spectacular rally started earlier this summer. The asset is currently trending sideways rather than upward, which may be an early indicator of an impending reversal.

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Both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs have been supporting Ethereum’s strong upward channel since mid-July. New purchases followed each decline, resulting in a stairway rally that saw ETH reach $4,800. Recent candles, however, show a divergence from that bullish trend. With ETH struggling to regain its momentum, the price action has flattened and is now trapped between $4,200 and $4,500.

What this sideways move suggests is what investors are worried about. Strong upward trends usually indicate waning demand and give way to bearish momentum when they lose their rhythm. The next reasonable support level for ETH, if it drops below $4,200, is the 100-day EMA close to $4,000. Ethereum would be at risk of a more severe retracement toward $3,600 if there was a decline there, confirming that the rally’s structure has been officially broken.

A consistent drop in volume has also supported the notion that market players are retreating. Sideways price action frequently resolves to the downside in the absence of significant inflows. The $4,200 key zone is still important for traders to keep an eye on. The bullish story may be saved if ETH maintains this level and breaks above the $4,500 resistance with strong volume.

Solana rally ends?

A lower high is beginning to form on the chart, which is a clear warning sign that Solana is getting tired. Following months of steady gains and higher highs since July, this development may signal the start of a more significant trend reversal, which could put an end to the asset’s current bullish cycle.

SOL recently reached a peak of about $210, but it was unable to surpass its August high of about $225. As an alternative, price action rolled over, creating a lower high, which is a classic indication of waning bullish momentum. Every high should surpass the one before it in a healthy uptrend, but this pattern break indicates that buying pressure isn’t strong enough to push Solana higher at this point.

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Declining trading volume combined with the daily structure makes it even more worrisome. Enthusiasm has waned, suggesting that market participants are reluctant to keep joining the rally even though the price is still above the psychological $200 threshold. A loss of momentum is reflected in the Relative Strength Index’s (RSI) flattening.

A confirmed trend reversal could occur from the lower high if Solana is unable to recover the $225 level in the near future. If $196, a crucial short-term support, were broken, further declines toward $185 and the 100-day EMA at $176 would be possible. A stronger move might even put the 200-day EMA close to $170 to the test, which would seriously undermine the long-term bullish argument.

The upward trend is currently on life support. A significant push above $210-$215 is necessary for bulls to regain confidence. If not, Solana’s lower high might signal the beginning of a longer-lasting bearish phase that could change market sentiment in the upcoming months.

Across Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana, price action is tightening around levels that could determine the direction of the market in the next few weeks. A confirmed breakout would restore confidence in the uptrend, while failure to hold support zones risks shifting sentiment decisively bearish.

The crypto market has plunged back into a state of “Extreme Fear” following a steep drop in investor sentiment.

The widely watched Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell 19 points to 25 on Tuesday, marking one of its lowest readings in recent months.

The sharp decline in sentiment came in the wake of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s April 2 announcement of sweeping new tariffs, branded the “Liberation Day” plan.

Trump’s Tariff Plan Imposes 10% Baseline, Hits Select Countries Harder

The policy introduces a 10% baseline tariff on all imports and includes significantly higher rates for selected countries.

China faces the steepest hike, with a combined 54% duty, while Vietnam (46%), Taiwan (32%), India (26%), Japan (24%), and the European Union (20%) also face sharp increases.

Canada and Mexico have been exempted for now, though that could change if existing tariffs are withdrawn.

Markets reacted swiftly and negatively. U.S. stock futures plummeted, with the Dow dropping over 1,000 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also suffered major losses.

The crypto sector mirrored the downturn. The overall crypto market capitalization fell by 4% to $2.7 trillion.

Bitcoin initially rallied to $88,500 during Trump’s speech but quickly reversed course, falling to $83,073—a 2% loss within 24 hours.

Ethereum followed with a 4% decline to $1,816, while Solana dropped more than 5% to $119.

The market rout triggered $514 million in liquidations over a 24-hour span, with $290 million coming from long positions, according to data from Coinglass.

Notably, the CMC Altcoin Season Index chart shows that the current score is 14 out of 100, placing the market firmly in Bitcoin Season rather than Altcoin Season.

This score indicates that only a small number of altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the last 90 days.

Historically, when this index is below 25, it suggests that Bitcoin is dominating the market in terms of returns, while altcoins are underperforming.

The chart also shows a steady decline in the Altcoin Season Index since January, with the current reading near its 90-day low.

In the broader context of the Fear and Greed Index, which also sits at a low 24/100 (Extreme Fear), the current Altcoin Season Index further reflects market caution.

Investors appear to be retreating to perceived safer assets like Bitcoin during uncertain times, avoiding riskier altcoins.

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin Must Hold $76.5K Until Tax Day to Stay Bullish

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, addressed the volatility on X, suggesting that Bitcoin holding above $76,500 until April 15—U.S. tax day—would be a bullish sign.

He cautioned traders not to “get chopped up” by the current turbulence.

Last month, 10X Research warned that Bitcoin could revisit $73,000.

The firm noted retail investors flocked to meme coins during Bitcoin’s post-election rally in January, likely marking a market top. They suggested Bitcoin now needs a new catalyst to sustain upward momentum.

The post Fear & Greed Index Hits 25 as Crypto Market Returns to ‘Extreme Panic’ Sentiment appeared first on Cryptonews.

Realized volatility is crucial because it captures actual market risk and helps investors gauge whether price movements align with their risk tolerance. It also reveals when markets are stressed, as large price swings drive up volatility.

Since the beginning of March, Bitcoin has seen a turbulent market characterized by rapid price swings. Coming off a severe late-February sell-off, the opening days of March saw Bitcoin stage a dramatic rally followed by an equally sharp pullback. These abrupt movements caused realized volatility to rise significantly.

The rapid ups and downs in early March fueled a sharp surge in one-week realized volatility. Traders observed some of the most significant single-day percentage changes in months, leading short-term volatility measures to climb well above normal ranges. As major price fluctuations continued, two-week and one-month realized volatility measures also rose. Longer-term metrics tended to capture the combined volatility of February’s sell-off and March’s rebound, driving them upward.

While volatility peaked in the first three days of March, it gradually fell as the market tried to stabilize. The one-week reading slightly declined, reflecting somewhat calmer price action, though broader volatility remained higher than in earlier months.

Bitcoin exhibited the classic pattern of volatility clustering—a quiet period followed by a storm. Before the late-February collapse, Bitcoin’s price had been relatively stable (volatility was low through January and early February). This calm was abruptly broken by late February’s crash, which led to a regime of high volatility that carried into March.

Historically, low volatility lulls often precede sharp spikes in crypto and traditional markets. In this case, weeks of consolidation were followed by the most volatile episode in months, validating the idea that stability can breed instability as market pressure quietly builds and then releases.

By definition, realized volatility is derived from price movements, so it’s no surprise that the spikes in realized vol coincided with sizeable daily price swings. However, it’s worth noting the symmetry: the volatility surged regardless of the price direction. In early March, one day’s extreme rally and the next day’s steep plunge both contributed to the volatility spike. This underlines that realized volatility measures magnitude, not whether moves are up or down.

During that week, Bitcoin’s upward swing (March 1 – March 2) and downward swing (March 2 – March 4) were both huge, and together they pushed 7-day volatility off the charts. Traders saw that periods of high realized volatility corresponded precisely to the days of frantic trading and big candles on the price chart.

Whenever Bitcoin’s daily candles expanded (long wicks/bodies indicating significant intraday ranges), the trailing realized volatility metrics rose in tandem. This tight correlation held throughout March: when price movements calmed, short-term volatility measures also fell.

These extreme fluctuations signaled significant market stress. As negative sentiment and selling pressure emerged in late February, shorter-term realized volatility spiked. This reinforced that high volatility typically indicates heightened risk.

Concerns surrounding a new wave of trade disputes helped trigger the late February drop and continued influencing March markets. Investors fled riskier assets like Bitcoin amid renewed uncertainty, contributing to the heightened volatility.

The anticipation surrounding a White House summit on crypto, plus speculation about governmental actions regarding its proposed crypto reserve, added to the market-wide anxiety. Bitcoin is highly sensitive to regulatory signals, so any potential changes in stance further fanned volatility.

Tracking realized volatility can provide early warning of changing market regimes — in this case, the eruption of volatility confirmed a regime shift from bull-market complacency to turbulent correction. Second, comparing price action with realized volatility helps identify extraordinary moves.

In March, the fact that 1-week volatility exceeded 100% indicated that the price swings were not just large — they were historically significant for Bitcoin. It also showed that Bitcoin does not trade in isolation. Events like policy changes, economic data, and global crises directly feed into its volatility. March 2025’s volatility resulted from crypto-specific factors and external shocks (like tariffs and regulatory shifts).

The post Bitcoin’s realized volatility surges in as traders face extreme price swings appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Data shows the Bitcoin trader sentiment has plunged back into the extreme fear zone as the asset’s price has erased its recent gains.

Bitcoin Has Already Retraced The Crypto Reserve Hype Rally

Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency market kicked off this new week on a very positive note as prices across the sector marked a sharp improvement following the Crypto Strategic Reserve announcement from US President Donald Trump.

It would appear that this optimism couldn’t last, however, as the various assets have already witnessed a retracement. Below is a chart showcasing the rollercoaster that Bitcoin has gone through recently.

The trend in the BTC price over the last five days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView

As is visible in the graph, Bitcoin touched the $95,000 mark at the height of the surge, but it has since plunged all the way down to $82,600. This means that not only has the number one cryptocurrency erased all its gains from the Crypto Reserve rally, it has, in fact, gone even lower than where it started.

Over the last 24 hours, BTC has printed losses of around 11%. The altcoins have performed even worse on average, with Ethereum (ETH) and XRP (XRP) sitting at 13% and 14% in the red, respectively.

Given all this volatility, it’s to be expected that the investor sentiment would have observed a drastic shift. Indeed, the trend in the Fear & Greed Index would confirm this.

Fear & Greed Index Has Returned To Extreme Fear

The “Fear & Greed Index” is an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the sentiment that the average trader in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets is holding right now.

The metric uses a numeric scale that runs from 0-100 for representing the market mentality. Values higher than 53 correlate to a sentiment of greed, while those under 47 suggest the dominance of fear. The index being in between these thresholds implies a net-neutral mentality.

There are also two special zones called extreme greed (occurring above 75) and extreme fear (below 25). The market appears to be in the latter of these regions right now, as the latest value of the Fear & Greed Index displays.

The metric appears to have a value of 15 at the moment | Source: Alternative

The indicator is currently at a value of 15, but just yesterday, it was at a much higher level of 33. Here is a chart that shows how the index has changed recently:

Looks like the metric has plunged in recent days | Source: Alternative

As is apparent from the graph, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index fell to a low of 10 at the end of February, but optimism among investors returned as the Trump announcement came. Now, the crash has once again wiped out hope among the traders.

The return to extreme fear may not be so bad for BTC and the others, however, as this zone is where their prices have historically bottomed out. It only remains to be seen, though, how much worse sentiment would have to get before a low is hit this time around.

Featured image from Dall-E, Alternative.me, chart from TradingView.com