Bitcoin Decay Channel Hints At $200K–$290K Top, Tips Cycle To Extend To 2026

In an X post on September 5, a Bitcoin researcher with the X username Sminston With shares some important data from the Bitcoin Decay Channel on a potential peak price for the current market cycle.

For context, the Bitcoin Decay Channel is a long-term logarithmic regression model that attempts to map Bitcoin’s price cycles, specifically its historical peaks and bottoms, within statistically derived boundaries. This pricing model shows that while Bitcoin follows boom-and-bust patterns, its growth rate decays over time as each cycle delivers smaller percentage gains than the last.

Notably, data from the Bitcoin Decay channel chart shows the premier cryptocurrency is steadily climbing within the 0.05 quantile support and upper bound resistance lines, with oscillations that mark historical overheated zones. The embedded oscillator suggests BTC is not yet at a euphoric peak, leaving room for further upside before a long-term top forms.

Based on more data, Sminston With explains that the present Bitcoin market cycle could see a price top between late 2025 and late 2026. If Bitcoin peaks in December 2025, the price range would sit between $205,000 and $230,000.  However, should the cycle extend into 2026, projections rise incrementally, i.e. $208,000-$235,000 by Jan 2026, $219,000–$250,000 by April 2026, $230,000-$265,000 by July 2026, $243,000-$282,000 by October 2026, and as high as $250,000–$292,000 by year-end 2026.

Regardless of which price top scenario, the Bitcoin Decay Channel presents a potential peak zone between $205,000 and $292,000 within the next 12-15 months. This presents a possible price gain of 86% in the base case and 167% in a bull case scenario.

Bitcoin Price Outlook

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $110,900, reflecting a 0.45% price increase in the past day. Meanwhile, weekly gains are now up by 2.89% showing a moderate recovery. Interestingly, Coincodex analysts are predicting the premier cryptocurrency to maintain this rebound, rising to $121,276 in five days. With a market cap of $2.2 trillion, Bitcoin remains the largest currency and fifth largest in the world. 

• Robinhood has listed Floki Inu and Ondo Finance tokens.
• The move grants the duo exposure to Robinhood’s massive 25M user base,
• FLOKI sheds its meme status, while Ondo fuels the RWA narrative.

Digital tokens have staged recoveries on Thursday as the global crypto market cap increased by over 3% in the past day to $3.83 trillion.

While Ethereum’s jump past $3,850 has renewed the ‘altseason’ narrative, commission-free trading site Robinhood has boosted FLOKI and ONDO’s momentum with today’s listing.

$FLOKI and $ONDO are now available to trade on Robinhood. pic.twitter.com/RxZlKtaCOS

— Robinhood (@RobinhoodApp) August 7, 2025

The leading trading platform in the United States has officially listed FLOKI and ONDO.

Meanwhile, this is beyond a listing. It is a key step toward crypto mainstream adoption.

The listing will open Floki Inu and Ondo to Robinhood’s over 25 million users.

Furthermore, crypto-curious investors can explore the meme and RWA assets on a regulated platform.

The listing news extended the altcoins’ 24-hour gains to nearly 10% amid renewed retailer appetite.

Floki continues to shed its meme status

Floki Inu has witnessed a conventional journey in the crypto world.

While initially criticized as another meme asset relying on hype, the team has quietly built a robust ecosystem.

The project now boasts a vivid metaverse gaming world, Valhalla.

Also, it launched the FlokiFi Locker LP token to amplify DeFi security.

Moreover, crypto enthusiasts can tap into the University of Floki to learn about the blockchain industry.

Licensed trading platforms are now recognizing the developers’ efforts.

Commenting on Robinhood support, the team stated:

Floki has gone from a meme to a movement, and now it’s sitting alongside the most recognizable assets in crypto and finance, easily accessible to the next wave of everyday investors.

$FLOKI is Now Listed on the Robinhood App

This marks a huge step forward for Floki, unlocking access to 25+ million users on the most influential retail trading platform in the world.

Floki has gone from a meme to a movement, and now it’s sitting alongside the most recognizable… https://t.co/iAdne5mgZe pic.twitter.com/5ka7ZHMTWi

— FLOKI (@FLOKI) August 7, 2025

The listing places Floki in a massive investor pool, while enriching its legitimacy.

Robinhood App users can now access the meme token alongside established assets, including Ethereum, Bitcoin, and HBAR.

Ondo: the RWA driver

Ondo Finance has dominated crypto trends in the past months, attracting users due to its unique approach, prioritizing institutional-level finance.

It aims to bring real-world assets like US Treasuries, property, and bonds on-chain.

Ondo is bringing global markets onchain.

Flipping the switch to a more open, modern financial system. pic.twitter.com/vvdZjtSpvh

— Ondo Finance (@OndoFinance) August 7, 2025

Ondo boasts a lucrative product lineup.

The OUSG exposes investors to short-term US government bonds.

Further, it hosts asset-backed tokens like ENA for on-chain yield hunters.

Moreover, the project has entered strategic collaborations with traditional giants like BlackRock, MasterCard, and Goldman Sachs.

Indeed, RWA tokenization is becoming a hot narrative in the blockchain space.

Institutions seeking to join the craze are looking for secure and regulated channels, and Ondo remains at the forefront of this momentum.

FLOKI and ONDO price actions

The altcoins exhibited bullish trajectories, fueled by the ongoing crypto market rebound and Robinhood listing.

Floki Inu hovers at $0.0001117 after an over 8% increase on the daily chart.

ONDO surged 7.7% in the past 24 hours to trade at $0.9820.

However, the weak trading volumes signal short-lived gains, unless accompanied by a continued broad market recovery.

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Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin USDT, has disclosed a portion of its investment portfolio, revealing an involvement in cryptocurrencies that extend beyond Bitcoin (BTC). The announcement comes as Tether reports record profits in 2024, which have been used to fund these strategic investments in more than 120 companies across multiple sectors. 

Tether Expands Investment Portfolio Beyond Bitcoin

Tether has unveiled a glimpse into its expansive investment portfolio, marking a significant pivot in its capital allocation strategy beyond just Bitcoin. The Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Tether, Paolo Ardoino, confirmed in an X social media post that the stablecoin firm has invested in over 120 companies as part of its Tether Investment division. He added that this number is expected to grow in the coming months and years.

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Notably, Ardoino disclosed that these investments are funded exclusively through the company’s record profits from 2024, which total $13.7 billion. He emphasized that none of the funds were obtained from reserves backing Tether’s stablecoin. 

Interestingly, Tether’s profits, generated from yield on its holdings of over $130 billion in US Treasuries, are now being directed into transformative industries through some of the most prominent companies. Its venture arm has expanded its focus past Bitcoin, now investing in areas like Artificial Intelligence (AI), renewable energy, privacy infrastructure, tokenization, agriculture, and others.

When asked by Crypto Tale how this diverse portfolio supports USDT’s position amid an increasingly stringent global regulatory environment, Ardoino underscored its strategic importance. On the question of USDT’s future in Europe under the continent’s new MiCA regulations, the Tether CEO stated that the stablecoin company would only consider re-entry once the regulatory landscape offers stronger protections for both consumers and stablecoin issuers. 

Companies In Tether’s Venture Portfolio 

On its official website, Tether shared a partial list of some of the companies among the 120 it has invested in. These range from blockchain infrastructure platforms like Synonym and Holepunch, to AI-focused firms like Crystal Intelligence, and payment technology providers such as CityPay.io and Sorted Wallet. The presence of companies like Blackrock Neurotech and Adecoagro reflects a commitment to broader technological and environmental impact, reaching into neuroscience and agriculture, respectively.

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Tether’s investment narrative is framed not solely in financial terms but as a deliberate push toward catalyzing decentralization and empowering individuals. The stablecoin firm declared its capital as a “catalyst for change,” invested in projects that reduce reliance on centralized systems and promote global equity. This mission-driven approach is visible across its portfolio, which also includes companies involved in data sovereignty like Northern Data, cross-border financial solutions such as Quantoz and OrionX, and privacy-first communication platforms. 

Mansa, a DeFi fintech venture, and Oobit, a global crypto payment platform, have also joined Tether’s investment portfolio, marking another step toward the company’s push toward real-world crypto adoption. Both firms expressed appreciation for the support, aligning with Tether’s broader vision to integrate stablecoins into everyday payment systems.

Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

As crypto adoption accelerates, financial infrastructure providers are competing to enable access to digital assets, whilst avoiding the complexity of building internal trading infrastructure.

Kraken Embed solves this by delivering Crypto-Assistance (CAAS) solutions that enable banks, fintech and financial platforms to integrate regulated crypto transactions through a single, compliant, scalable API.

Crypto markets, like equities, reacted to mounting uncertainty, with any hopes of a near-term tariff concession fading fast ahead of a looming deadline.

Bitcoin dropped 5.6% to $75,523 while Ether slid 10.7% to $1,417. The broader cryptocurrency market also came under pressure, with total market capitalization falling 7.2% to $2.4t in the last 24 hours, despite scattered gains in some altcoins.

Investor confidence weakened further after the White House confirmed on April 8 that the US plans to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 104%, following Beijing’s pledge to retaliate against the move.

Tariff Escalation Hits Stocks as Crypto Tracks Broader Market Moves

The tariff tensions rattled traditional markets as well. All three major US stock indices ended Tuesday in the red, with the S&P 500 closing below 5,000 for the first time in nearly a year.

“With Trump threatening a further 50% tariff on China and Beijing refusing to back down, sentiment could turn quickly,” Lukman Otunuga, senior market analyst at FXTM, said. “Markets are walking a tightrope — any escalation could see risk aversion return with full force.”

Since Trump unveiled the global tariff framework last Wednesday, S&P 500 companies have lost a staggering $5.8t in market value, marking the index’s worst four-day drop since its inception in the 1950s, according to LSEG data.

Trump’s shifting rhetoric has added to the volatility. He has described the new tariffs as “permanent,” yet simultaneously claims they are forcing leaders to seek negotiations. This mixed messaging has fueled uncertainty across global markets, leaving investors unsure of what comes next.

While cryptocurrencies are often seen as uncorrelated to traditional financial systems, recent trends suggest otherwise. In times of broad market stress, Bitcoin and Ether have increasingly mirrored the movement of tech stocks and broader indices. This correlation is particularly evident during risk-off periods when investors retreat from volatile assets across the board.

Inflation Report Adds to High-Stakes Week for Markets Under Pressure

Market participants are now turning their attention to Thursday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could further shape risk sentiment.

“A CPI reading above 3.4% could compound market concerns about persistent inflation,” said Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and COO of RedStone. Such an outcome may trigger another wave of equity and crypto selloffs as traders scale back expectations for near-term rate cuts, he added.

Conversely, a softer CPI reading, below 3.2%, could provide a brief reprieve, according to Kazmierczak. It might dampen inflation fears and cushion the blow from trade tensions, potentially lifting both equities and crypto.

Bitcoin, which held up better than Ether in recent days, could benefit from this scenario, bolstering views that its market behavior is beginning to diverge from traditional risk assets during episodes of macro uncertainty.

The post Bitcoin, Ether Extend Losses as Investors Brace for Prolonged Tariff Impact appeared first on Cryptonews.

According to data from SoSoValue, Thursday’s total net inflow reached $89 million, with Fidelity’s FBTC leading the charge, receiving $97.14 million.

BlackRock’s IBIT also saw a modest gain of around $4 million.

Invesco and WisdomTree Bitcoin ETFs See Outflows Amid Broader Inflow Streak

However, not all funds shared the same trajectory. Invesco’s BTCO experienced an outflow of nearly $7 million, while WisdomTree’s BTCW recorded a $5 million withdrawal.

Overall, the past 10 trading sessions brought in $1.06 billion, which, while significant, remains below the single-day inflow seen on January 17.

Interestingly, the data reveals a clear divergence between investor sentiment toward Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Since February 20, spot Ether ETFs have posted net outflows on all but two trading days. Jung highlighted this contrast as a sign of stronger investor conviction in Bitcoin.

As reported, digital asset investment products saw a strong turnaround last week, recording $644 million in inflows and ending a five-week streak of outflows.

As a result, total assets under management have increased by 6.3% from their recent low on March 10.

The United States accounted for the bulk of the inflows, contributing $632 million.

However, the renewed optimism was not limited to the U.S., with Switzerland, Germany, and Hong Kong also seeing inflows of $15.9 million, $13.9 million, and $1.2 million, respectively.

Bitcoin was the clear leader in the recovery, drawing in $724 million after five weeks of outflows totaling $5.4 billion.

As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $85,265, down by more than 2% over the past day. The leading cryptocurrency is largely flat over the past month.

Meanwhile, Ether has dropped more than 5% over the past 24 hours, currently changing hands at $1,914, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

U.S. Jobless Claims Dip, But Trade Policies Stir Economic Uncertainty

New jobless claims in the U.S. declined slightly last week, with unemployment holding steady at 4.1% in March, indicating a stable labor market despite slowing hiring.

However, President Trump’s aggressive trade measures and proposed federal spending cuts have raised concerns, particularly in regions reliant on government contracts like the Washington metropolitan area, where unemployment claims have increased.

In a comment shared with Cryptonews.com, Paybis CEO Innokenty Isers said the global financial system is highly sensitive to U.S. policy shifts.

“Trade policy changes, especially those affecting tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq, ripple through markets,” Isers explained.

Crypto-related firms trading on the Nasdaq, such as Strategy and RIOT, have seen their risk profiles shift accordingly.

Isers added that while Bitcoin saw inflows of $724 million last week amid easing trade tensions, new tariffs could dampen this momentum.

Still, he noted that the idea of replacing fiat with Bitcoin or stablecoins in global trade remains unlikely for now.

The post U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs Extend Inflow Streak to 10 Days, Longest Since December appeared first on Cryptonews.

Bitcoin Institutional Investors Withdraw For The Fifth Straight Week

After a strong start to the year which saw the Bitcoin ETFs attract over $5 billion in investments, institutional investors have shown much caution in recent weeks indicated by massive withdrawals. According to data from Farside Investors, the Bitcoin Spot ETFs registered $921.4 million in net outflows during the past week culminating in an estimated total of $5.4 billion in the last five weeks.

The majority of withdrawals from last week were pulled from BlackRock’s IBIT which recorded $338.1 million in net outflows. Fidelity’s FBTC followed closely with investors with fund redemptions outpacing deposits by $307.4 million. Other Bitcoin ETFs such as Ark’s ARKB, Invesco’s BTCO, Franklin Templeton’s EZBC, WisdomTree’s BTCW, and Grayscale’s GBTC all saw moderate net outflows between $33 million-$81 million.

Meanwhile, Bitwise’s BITB, Valkyrie’s BRRR, and VanEck’s HODL all recorded minor net outflows not greater than $4 million. Grayscale’s BTC emerged as the only fund to have a positive showing with net inflows of $5.5 million.

The consistently high levels of withdrawals from the Bitcoin ETFs can be associated with the recent BTC market price correction. Over the last month, the maiden cryptocurrency has experienced a price decline of 11.95% reaching levels as low as $77,000. During this period, institutional investors have shown much caution, with the total net assets of the Bitcoin Spot ETFs decreasing by 21.70% to $89.89 billion according to data from SoSoValue.

Ethereum ETFs Lose $190 Million In Withdrawals

Amidst the Bitcoin ETFs’ struggles, the Ethereum Spot ETFs market is experiencing similar investor sentiment following net outflows of $189.9 million in the last week. This development marks the third consecutive week of withdrawals, bringing the total net outflows to $645.08 million within this period.

Similar to its Bitcoin counterpart, BlackRock’s ETHA experienced the largest withdrawals of the past week valued at $63.3 million. At the time of writing, total cumulative inflows into the Ethereum ETF market are valued at $2.52 billion with total net assets standing at $6.72 billion i.e. 2.90% of the ETH market cap.

Meanwhile, Ethereum continues to trade at $1,924 reflecting a 0.73% gain in the past 24 hours. On the other hand, Bitcoin is valued at $84,009 with no significant price change on its daily chart.

Renowned macro analyst and Real Vision founder Raoul Pal has issued a forecast that the ongoing Bitcoin bull market may stretch into 2026—well beyond most conventional expectations of a peak in 2025. In a recent presentation, Pal walked through a range of macroeconomic indicators, historical price behaviors, and liquidity metrics that he says paint a compelling picture for an extended uptrend in digital assets.

Bitcoin Bull Market Depends On M2

At the heart of Pal’s thesis lies the notion of Global M2 money supply, a metric tracking the total liquidity in circulation worldwide. Pal observed that Bitcoin, along with other risk-on assets, tends to correlate closely with changes in Global M2. “If this is the case, then M2 is going to keep going up all f***ing year. If that is the case, then crypto and risk assets like tech will do well all year.”

By comparing current liquidity trends to those seen in 2017—when the dollar weakened considerably and equity markets soared in US President Donald Trump’s first term—Pal argues that the macro backdrop appears similarly poised for expansion. According to him, if major economies continue easing, it may drive the next phase of explosive crypto growth.

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Pal’s thesis revolves around the impact of global liquidity, particularly the role of Global M2 money supply as a leading indicator for Bitcoin and risk assets. He presented a correlation between Global M2 growth and crypto market performance, stating: “If this is the case, then M2 is going to keep going up all f***ing year. If that is the case, then crypto and risk assets like tech will do well all year.”

His analysis draws parallels to 2017, when Trump’s fiscal policies and monetary easing led to a prolonged period of dollar weakness, which fueled the crypto cycle. Similar conditions are unfolding now, with expectations of rate cuts and stimulus measures.

A crucial factor in Pal’s extended bull market thesis is the business cycle, which he tracks through the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index. Historically, an ISM reading above 50 signals economic expansion, which correlates with Bitcoin’s price surges. He noted: “Bitcoin goes up as the ISM goes up […] If the ISM gets up to its normal cycle peak of somewhere between 56 and 65, that will give us the magnitude of the rise in Bitcoin.”

Pal suggested that if ISM continues its upward trajectory, Bitcoin’s price could exceed $300,000 or higher. However, he refrained from making precise forecasts, emphasizing that probabilities, not certainties, drive market analysis.

Addressing the altcoin market, Pal maintained that Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH) remain key components of his portfolio. Despite Solana’s recent drawdown of over 53%, he dismissed fears of a long-term decline: “Solana has overshot versus global M2 […]Solana should outperform Bitcoin for the rest of the cycle and Ethereum too, with Sui outperforming Solana.”

His broader view on altcoins is based on risk appetite shifts as financial conditions ease. Historically, altcoins outperform Bitcoin in the latter half of the cycle when investors seek higher-beta opportunities. Pal criticized the notion that there will be no altcoin season in this cycle, stating, “That’s all f****ing nonsense.”

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Pal emphasized that large pullbacks are a feature, not a bug of crypto bull markets. He detailed past corrections, pointing out that the current cycle has seen seven 20%+ corrections while maintaining a 600% gain from the lows. He warned traders against leverage and panic selling, reinforcing his “Don’t F* This Up**” thesis: “To make the money, to unf*** your future, you’re going to have to learn to deal with volatility.”

He compared the current correction to 2017, which saw multiple 30-40% pullbacks before peaking. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) also indicates that the market is the second most oversold in this cycle, suggesting a potential recovery in the coming months.

Extending The Cycle To 2026

One of Pal’s most striking assertions is that the current cycle could extend into 2026 rather than peaking in 2025, as many analysts have projected. His reasoning is based on the prolonged period of economic stagnation before growth acceleration. He stated: “The business cycle is taking a long time below 50. It’s starting to expand now. That has probably extended the cycle into 2026.”

While he clarified that this is not a prediction but a working hypothesis, the implications could be significant. A longer cycle would allow for higher valuations, a sustained investment influx, and a gradual rather than explosive blow-off top.

Pal reiterated that the crypto market follows a predictable pattern, with a year-long “banana zone” of exponential growth. He noted that the current correction phase aligns with past cycles and should lead to a renewed rally by April-May. “We are now in correction phase one […] Then as we go into March, April, May, we start accelerating up again into the next phase of the banana zone.”

However, he warned that investors should expect another major correction before the final market top, cautioning against overleveraging and late-cycle exuberance.

Summarizing his outlook, Pal urged investors to maintain perspective and resist emotional trading. He emphasized the importance of long-term vision, proper portfolio construction, and patience: “You guys need patience more than anything else and need to understand markets […] Our futures are resting on the same thing.”

At press time, BTC traded at $88,617.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com