I wrote the following function to build and sign a Taproot (P2TR) transaction using @cmdcode/tapscript: My intention is to support spending on both key and script paths.

The problem is that it doesn’t work as expected.

Script-Path spending often fails validation (e.g. block error, invalid witness, or failed script execution).

Can someone review my code and point out what’s wrong with my logic or implementation? I especially appreciate the advice on how to fix performance improvements in script path failures and key path cases.

import { Address, Signer, Tap, Tx } from '@cmdcode/tapscript';

protected buildTaprootTx(
  senderKey: { publicKey: Uint8Array; privateKey: Uint8Array },
  utxos: Array<{ txid: string; vout: number; value: number }>,
  recipient: string,
  amountSat: number,
  feeSat: number,
  mode: 'key' | 'script' | 'both',
  scriptLeaves: Array = (),
  opReturnData?: Uint8Array | string,
  changeAddr?: string
): string {
  // ... (full code as in my gist, see link below)
}

Complete code

question:

• What am I doing wrong, especially when it comes to script path spending?

• Is there a better way to configure or optimize features for performance and accuracy?

• If you find any obvious bugs or misconceptions in how you use TapRoot key/Script Path Logic, please point them out.

Code reviews, suggestions, or references to practical examples are highly appreciated. thank you!

The Bitcoin price is once again commanding the spotlight as bullish momentum propels the leading cryptocurrency to new all-time highs. With the price already breaking past the $122,000 mark, analysts are growing increasingly confident in the potential for even higher targets. A recently shared chart analysis by market expert CrediBull Crypto suggests that the current rally is far from—and most importantly, no major dips are expected along the way. As a result, he has forecasted that BTC could see a significant price surge to $155,000 soon. 

Bitcoin Price Action Clears Path To $155,000 

Bitcoin’s momentum continues to gather steam, with technical indicators from CrediBull Crypto’s wave analysis report signals a bullish continuation that could propel the cryptocurrency’s price to $155,000 in the coming weeks. The analyst’s new wave count projection suggests that Bitcoin is firmly in the middle of a powerful upward leg, with minimal signs of a pullback ahead. 

Related Reading

CrediBull Crypto’s shared price chart highlights a well-formed textbook Elliott Wave structure that suggests that Bitcoin is in the early stages of a strong Wave 3. Notably, BTC’s recent breakout above the $112,000 range shifted market sentiment in a bullish direction. What once served as resistance was quickly flipped to support, and now price action is clearing a path toward even higher ATH targets as momentum continues to build.

A critical factor supporting the analyst’s optimistic BTC outlook is the daily demand zone between $98,000 and 101,000. This area served as the launch point for the previous rally above $112,000 and has remained untested ever since. With selling pressure diminishing and strength building, CrediBull Crypto believes that the price of Bitcoin will stay well above the $110,000 level. 

He also views a retest to $112,000 or a decline to $110,000 or below as highly unlikely under current bullish conditions. According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s projected path forward places it near $135,000 by the completion of Wave 3, followed by a brief period of consolidation before a final push toward $155,000. 

Bitcoin Rise Above $120,000 Is Just The Beginning

As Bitcoin continues its ride above $120,000, Crypto Fella, a market expert on X, has cited the potential for the cryptocurrency to enter price discovery mode and skyrocket to uncharted levels. The analyst’s chart highlights a well-defined ascending trendline beginning in early 2023, with three distinct rally zones marked by purple rectangles. Each of these phases showcases consolidation followed by an aggressive upward move, suggesting a clear pattern of accumulation and breakout. 

Related Reading

The current leg of Bitcoin’s rally appears to mirror this trend from past bullish cycles but with greater force, hinting that the leading cryptocurrency could be on the verge of a parabolic surge. A key target identified in Crypto Fella’s analysis sits around the $138,206 level, which aligns with the projected continuation along the trendline. This level represents the next major psychological resistance and could mark the entrance into a new phase of price discovery.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Analysts at the financial giant Goldman Sachs upgraded their S&P 500 projections amid new predictions for rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Goldman Sachs Research economists say there’s more than a 50% chance of the Fed cutting rates at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September, three months earlier than their previous prediction.

Goldman economists predict 25-basis-point cuts in September, October, and December, and March and June of 2026.

The upgraded forecast is due to early evidence that indicates the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs has been somewhat less dramatic than initially expected. David Mericle, chief US economist in Goldman Sachs Research, also notes that it has become harder to find a job in the US, though he says the labor market remains healthy overall.

The CME FedWatch Tool estimates there’s a 62.7% chance the Fed will cut the rate by 25 basis points at the FOMC meeting in September. The FedWatch Tool generates probabilities using the 30-day Fed Funds futures prices.

Due to the upgraded forecast, Goldman Sachs strategists raised their 12-month forecast for the S&P 500 index from 6,500 to 6,900, Bloomberg reports. They also increased their year-end target from 6,100 to 6,600.

The S&P 500 is trading at 6,225.52 at time of writing. The leading index is up 0.5% in the past five days and 3.66% in the past month.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Assume S I want to send it 3 Sit down R. You can assume that further S Each local channel has sufficient liquidity 3 soil. It also assumes channel fluidity (A,R), (B,R) and (C,R) It is distributed evenly.

One optimally reliable payment flow in this diagram looks like this:

1 sat: S --> A --> R   probability: 2/3
2 sats: S --> B --> R  probability: 3/5

This flow has a total probability 2/3*3/5 = 2/5 = 0.4 = 40%

question:

How to calculate the expected value of the arrival of Satoshu R if S send 3?

Option a

(I already know I’m wrong, but I think some people have similar initial thoughts, so I’ll write it down)

At first I thought this was just right 3 sats * 2/5 = 6/5 sats = 1.2 sats This is obtained by multiplying the amount of transmission with the probability of flow. This seems strange when sending two SATs S-->B-->R There is a chance of 3/5 And with the above reasoning 2 sats * 3/5 = 6/5 sats = 1.2 sats. The expected value of 1 is sitting along S-->A-->B The path is bigger 0 This is inconsistent with the expected additive.

Option b

Starting with the above reasoning, we add the expected value to the broken path.

E(3 sats) = 1 sat * 2/3 + 2 sat * 3/5 = 10/15 sats + 18/15 sats = 28/15 sats

Option c

Of course, two Satoshi Passes S-->B-->R You don’t need to send it as a single onion as an onion, but you can send it as two onions each with one soil.

The first is the probability 4/5 The second is a conditional probability 3/4 This is widely explained in this issue. You should be able to add these expectations using the logic in option B. Therefore S--> B --> R It is calculated as follows:

E(2 sats) = 1 sat * 4/5 + 1 sat * 3/4 = 31/20 sats 

Add one Saturday onion S-->A-->R That was 2/3 soil

We expect to have

E(3 sats) = 31/20 sats + 2/3 sats = 93/60 sats + 40/60 sats = 132/60 sats = 33/15 sats

This is 5/15 sats = 1/3 sats More than the answer to option b

Option d

Worse, I’m confused if there’s a chance that the expectation of analyzing two SAT onions in option C into two SAT onions could be linearly added, as the second onion is conditional to have two SAT onions in the channel. If the first onion fails, the second onion certainly fails. Therefore, in order to send such two Saturday onions, you need to calculate the expected value.

E(2 sats) = 1 sat * 4/5 + 1 sat * 3/5 = 7/5 sats

This gives you the following total expected value:

E(3 sats) = 2/3 sats + 7/5 sats = 10/30 sats + 21/15 sats = 31/15 sats

thought

There are results just for comparison

• Option a: 18/15
• Option b: 28/15
• Option c: 33/15
• Option d: 31/15

Option B certainly seems correct, but it makes sense to further analyze the two SATS onions. In the simulation, option D appears to be correct. This is a bit surprising to me. Using the formalism of probability theory, the difference between the 2 SAT paths is as follows:

• Option c: E(2 sats) = 1 sat * P(X>=1) + 1 sat * P(X>=2 | X >= 1)
• Option d: E(2 sats) = 1 sat * P(X>=1) + 1 sat * P(X>=2)

As mentioned earlier, the simulated setting indicates that option D is correct, but that is very surprising to me as I expect the second term to be a conditional probability.

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Ethereum price action on the 1-day chart continues to unfold in line with prior expectations, showing steady progress within its established bullish setup. The price remains well-structured with ETH holding above key support and respecting trend dynamics.

Ethereum’s Next Key Targets — Where Price Could Be Headed

Ethereum is facing resistance from a tight cluster of EMAs, which is acting as a ceiling and compressing price action. Crypto Devil highlighted on X that ETH needs to show strength and break above these EMAs to shift short-term momentum back to bull.

The price action has already hit the RSI target and rejected from the initial chart target, indicating a possible exhaustion of momentum, but not a breakdown. ETH is showing signs of a potential spring test, a setup that often signals the final shakeout before a bullish breakout.

The key confirmation signals to watch are: A break above the tight EMAs signals a bullish control trend, reclaiming the $2.600 level, which is a significant resistance and chart target. This would push the RSI above 53, indicating renewed strength and momentum.

Barry | ChartMonkey also noted that the Ethereum weekly chart shows price steadily rising as expected, maintaining a clean bullish structure, and now approaching a critical resistance zone between $2,600 and $2,900. This resistance zone marks a pivotal moment for ETH.

However, a break above $2,900 could ignite a new wave of bullish momentum, potentially setting the stage for a broader breakout toward higher targets. Thus, ETH could be on the verge of a significant upside move.

On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum is gaining momentum, up 7.58% on the day and trading around $2,593. According to Wayne Liang, this surge is due to a combination of strong accumulation patterns, steady ETF inflows, and rising staking activity.

Despite the impressive move, Wayne stated that the short-term outlook remains slightly bearish, with overhead resistance and cooling indicators, the broader trend remains bullish on the long-term trajectory. He refers to the current technical setup as a beautiful blue diamond, a symbolic description for the coiling structure before momentum could explode to the upside.

Ethereum In Bullish Continuation Zone

Whales_Crypto_Trading analyzed that Ethereum is holding above the lower boundary of an ascending triangle formation on the 2-hour chart, a bullish continuation pattern that precedes upward movement. If the pattern plays out, ETH could surge toward the $3,200 target, a move that aligns with technical projections and bullish market sentiment.

The analyst also revealed that Ethereum is testing a key resistance level that has now turned into support. This level is where ETH might determine whether it maintains an upward trend or faces a pullback.  

If this support holds, ETH price could climb toward the $4,000 level in the next few months. This level represents a milestone that aligns with technical targets and growing market enthusiasm.

Featured image from Istock images, chart from tradingview.com

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June 2nd Bitfinex alpha | An unstable market is expected

Bitcoin has received its first meaningful revision since its low in April, cooling its assets after a new all-time high of 50%, from $74,501 to $111,880. The current pullback reflects a change in tempo following a nearly 50-day uninterrupted upside marked by minimal retracement. This retracement is not technical. Macro pressure has renewed following an unexpected decision by the US Court of Appeals to hold off a lower court ruling that suggests some of the tariffs imposed by the US administration are illegal. The announcement saw a wave of risk-off sentiment, with breakouts at the Ministry of Finance exceeding 5% in 2010.

At the same time, the Bitcoin derivatives market is showing signs of overheating. Open interest on options rose to an all-time high of $49.4 billion. Following the recent Bitcoin ATH, it has increased the rise in institutional activity and increased hedging/speculation. Such positioning suggests that the market is hoping for a growing volatility to advance, with the hopes of further macro headwinds and structural profits. On-chain metrics confirm this. The relative unrealized benefit indicator is broken above the +2 standard deviation band. This is a historically euphoric zone that usually precedes a sharp intrinsic swing and local top.

Despite the pullback, we believe Bitcoin will remain structurally strong. This fix appears to be a healthy reset rather than a failure driven by leverage flushing and profit realization after one of the most rapid recovery in crypto history.

In contrast, the US economy shows signs of tension as consumers and businesses navigate a landscape characterized by trade tensions, cooling demands, and policy uncertainties. Consumer spending was significantly slower in April, and households favored savings over discretionary purchases amid growing concerns about the long-term impact of tariffs. For now, inflation remains curtailed, but this may be temporary as businesses begin to acquire higher costs from rising tariffs.

Trade dynamics are also shifting rapidly. After a front-loading rush to beat tariff hikes in the first quarter, imports fell nearly 20% in April, resulting in a 46% reduction in the commodity trade deficit. This narrow trade gap could support GDP in the short term, but business inventory remained flat and hesitant to invest or replenish. In parallel, the orders for core capital goods, an indicator of corporate investment, dropped 1.3%, the sharpest decline since October, indicating a growing attention for businesses.

The labor market is also showing early signs of stress, with unemployed claims reaching the highest level since 2021, and businesses are increasingly freezing plans. The first quarter saw a sharp decline in corporate profits, weakening the sentiment of business leaders. Even in a temporary trade ceasefire between the US and China, confidence remains vulnerable. Consumer sentiment recovered in May and is supported by hopes of tariff relief, but both businesses and households have adopted a cautious on-standing approach.

The cryptocurrency industry has seen a significant wave of development across the global financial sector of businesses, regulations and events. Famous meme stock GameStop made headlines with a bold $513 million investment in Bitcoin, indicating a strategic shift towards financial diversification amid declining sales. The move matches the company with an increasing list of companies integrating Bitcoin into its financial strategy, but has sparked investors’ unease over the company’s limited experience in managing crypto market volatility and digital assets.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Labor has retracted its 2022 guidance, discouraging the inclusion of cryptocurrencies in its 401(k) retirement plan, and has retracted its 2022 guidance that has made its more neutral position. The change allows trustees to have more flexibility in assessing crypto investments in their retirement portfolios, reflecting increased maturity and regulatory clarity in the digital asset market.

At the global stage, the Bank of Russia has approved financial institutions that provide crypto-related financial products to qualified investors. Though these products are non-delivery and highly regulated, the decision presents a cautious yet important step in integrating digital assets into the Russian financial system. Collectively, these developments highlight broader trends. Cryptocurrency has moved from fringes to the mainstream financial system, fostering innovation while increasing interests for sound regulations and risk management.

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-an-unstable-market-is-expected/feed/ 0 41501 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-strengthens-vs-gold-analyst-sees-higher-than-expected-returns/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-strengthens-vs-gold-analyst-sees-higher-than-expected-returns/#respond Sat, 17 May 2025 00:16:57 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-strengthens-vs-gold-analyst-sees-higher-than-expected-returns/

Bitcoin’s price may surge above $200,000 next year, according to recent analysis by X account Apsk32. He warns that the familiar four‑year cycle for BTC often lines up with fresh highs. Short swings have hit traders hard before. This time, bulls say Bitcoin could even top $250,000 in 2025.

Related Reading

Bitcoin Gold Link

According to Apsk32, Bitcoin often trails gold by a few months. Gold hit a record $3,500 per ounce earlier this year. If Bitcoin follows that path, it could surge. He measures Bitcoin’s market value in ounces of gold instead of dollars. That way, money printing and inflation don’t skew the view.

Power Curve Model

Apsk32 uses what he calls a “power curve” tool. It fits Bitcoin’s market cap in gold ounces to a smooth curve. The tool stretches back to the 2017 high near $20,000. When plotted, it suggests a 2025 bull‑market peak above $200,000. He told X followers that “if Bitcoin’s position relative to gold keeps improving, returns could top expectations.”

Bitcoin’s position relative to gold has improved considerably since April. This is the indicator that gives me hope for higher than expected returns later this year.

BTC-USD is close to extreme greed, which sounds scary, but it’s also where we would expect to be if Bitcoin… pic.twitter.com/CY1Qxy4Hdi

— apsk32 (@apsk32) May 16, 2025

Realistic Price Targets

While some models push for $444,000 this year—what Apsk32 credits to “five years ahead of support”—he thinks a more realistic goal is $220,000. He added there’s a “decent chance” BTC hits $250,000, but he doesn’t see that as the most likely outcome. The $220,000 level would still mark a 10× jump from Bitcoin’s low near $22,000 in late 2022.

Gold Market Scenarios

Other market experts ran a different test. They looked at how much Bitcoin could be worth if it claimed part of gold’s total value. If gold reaches, say, $5,000 per ounce by 2030 and Bitcoin grabs half of gold’s market cap, BTC could hit a price of more than $920k. But then, these figures are scenario‑based, not firm predictions.

Supply And Demand Factors

Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins. Every block halving makes new BTC rarer. These events come roughly every four years. The next one is expected in 2024. After that, miner rewards fall from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. Scarcity has driven prices up in past cycles. But demand could shift if big investors pull back.

Related Reading

Risks And Opportunities

Volatility in both gold and Bitcoin could upend these models. Gold can face sudden drops when traders take profits. Bitcoin has swung 20% or more in a single day before. Regulatory moves, geo‑political events, and tech upgrades all play a part. Still, setting clear price scenarios helps investors plan.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

At 08:30 ET today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to release its advance estimate for US Q1 GDP, with consensus expectations at a 0.3% seasonally adjusted annual rate.

If confirmed, this would mark the weakest quarterly print since early 2022 and contrast starkly with the inflow of over $3 billion into spot Bitcoin ETFs last week, reflecting what some market participants interpret as a pivot in capital preference toward digital assets amid macroeconomic stagnation.

[Editor’s Note: Q1 GDP will not include tariff impact as the cut-off date came before ‘Liberation Day.’]

GDP forecasts show a stark divide. The Atlanta Fed’s Nowcast has called a contraction of 2.7%, while the Philadelphia Fed’s model projects growth of 2.5%, last updated on Feb. 14.

Regardless of the final figure, the drag from the record goods-trade deficit is a common feature across estimates, with some models attributing up to 1.9 percentage points of negative contribution to it.

This trade shortfall appears to be a delayed consequence of tariff front-loading, spurring preemptive imports during the prior quarter. Inventories are expected to be flat, while consumer sentiment continues to deteriorate, hitting a five-year low. Business capital expenditure has also been curtailed.

Inflationary persistence further complicates the picture. March’s Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% year-over-year, and the Core PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, stood at 2.8% in February.

Interest rate futures now price in over 90% probability of a rate cut by December. Concurrently, Treasury yields have declined and the dollar has weakened, reinforcing stagflation comparisons with the 1970s as economic growth stalls and inflation remains above target.

Bitcoin macro hedge for 2025?

Bitcoin’s market setup diverges notably from the traditional macro picture. Realized capitalization for the top digital asset continues to make new all-time highs, currently at $883 billion and signaling continued inflows despite the pullback from January’s price peak.

Data show that approximately 20,000 BTC exited exchanges in the past week, the highest weekly net outflow in two years, primarily driven by whale accumulation of 19,255 BTC. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs captured $3.4 billion in inflows, the third-largest weekly intake to date.

BlackRock’s IBIT alone recorded $643 million on April 23, its second-largest single-day inflow.

Volatility metrics suggest a broader evolution in market structure. Realized volatility has compressed by roughly 50% from its 2022 peaks, and the volatility spread between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq now sits near cycle lows.

This compression has lent credence to characterizations of Bitcoin as a maturing asset class, a view reinforced by VanEck’s observation that its volatility and co-movement profile increasingly resemble that of gold rather than equities.

The juxtaposition between a near-stalling US economy and a record-high cumulative invested cost in Bitcoin reflects diverging narratives around capital preservation.

The trade deficit drag highlights the limitations of a tariff-distorted goods economy, while Bitcoin’s borderless framework offers a contrasting vehicle for global allocation.

The backdrop of tepid growth and elevated inflation has reopened discourse around digital assets as potential stagflation hedges, particularly as ETF demand endures despite recessionary signals.

With major funds from the likes of BlackRock and Fidelity continuing to absorb supply, flows into digital assets show resilience that is disconnected from conventional macro indicators.

Market participants now look toward the May 1 Core PCE update and next week’s FOMC decision for further clarity on rate trajectory and inflation conditions.

Mentioned in this article

Fundstrat’s head of research, Tom Lee, says that a resolution of President Trump’s tariff war will create a positive setup for financial markets.

In a new interview on CNBC, Lee says that contrary to media headlines, the threat of tariffs has potentially already left their mark on the financial landscape, meaning that most of the damage has already been done to markets.

Lee references the stock market correction of 1962 during the Cuban Missile Crisis when markets bottomed before the actual resolution of the crisis took place.

“I think markets should interpret it positively because I think when we talk to our clients, many are viewing tariffs as punitive, potentially protectionist and driving several economies into recession. This sounds like we could actually have a positive-case scenario with these tariffs. One that’s either mutually agreed upon or reciprocal, but maybe a good deal for businesses and I think it would set the stage for a much bigger recovery rally than we expect…

We still have eight trading days till April 2nd. Most investors are getting just nauseous from the volatility so they want to throw in the towel but we also know that markets will bottom or have historically bottomed before the event actually happens. The best example is the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. That was a 12-day crisis. The stock market bottomed seven days into that crisis and recovered two-thirds of the losses before the resolution. So I think that’s a decent template for today.”

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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