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The analytics firm Glassnode has revealed how the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Loss could imply sellers may be starting to reach exhaustion.

Bitcoin Realized Loss Is Showing Signs Of Saturation

In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about how the Bitcoin capitulation has looked during the latest price drawdown. The on-chain indicator of relevance here is the “Realized Loss,” which measures, as its name suggests, the total amount of loss that the investors on the Bitcoin network as a whole are ‘realizing.’

The metric works by going through the transaction history of each coin being moved or sold on the blockchain to see what price it was transacted at prior to this. If the previous selling price is more than the current spot price for any coin, then its sale is said to be contributing to loss realization.

The amount of loss being realized in the sale is, of course, equal to the difference between the two prices. The Realized Loss calculates this value for all transactions occurring on the network and sums them up to find the total situation.

Like the Realized Loss, there is also an indicator known as the Realized Profit. This metric naturally keeps track of the sales of the opposite type (that is, where last transfer value is lower than the latest spot price).

Now, here is the chart for the Bitcoin Realized Loss shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in its 6-hour rolling value over the past year:

Looks like the value of the metric has observed large spikes in recent days | Source: Glassnode on X

As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Loss observed several large spikes during the bearish price action in February and March, suggesting the investors panic sold their underwater coins.

The recent FUD around tariffs has triggered a continuation of the drawdown for the asset and predictably, the holders have shown sizeable capitulation now as well.

But interestingly, the scale of the 6-hour Realized Loss has been notably lower than the spikes from before. This could imply capitulation is reaching a point of saturation, which, according to Glassnode, may be an early sign that the sellers are becoming exhausted. If so, then it’s possible that BTC may be close to some sort of bottom.

In the same thread, the on-chain analytics firm has also discussed about the recent trajectory in the market cap of the altcoins (that is, the cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the stablecoins).

The trend in the combined market cap of the altcoins over the last few years | Source: Glassnode on X

From the chart, it’s apparent that the altcoin market cap was sitting at an all-time high of $1 trillion in December 2024, but today the metric has shrunken to $583 billion. “Assets further out on the risk curve have shown heightened sensitivity to liquidity shocks, leading to severe sector-wide devaluation,” notes Glassnode.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has been making an attempt at recovery during the last couple of days as its price has returned to $81,900.

The price of the coin seems to have been rising recently | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView

Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

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A widely followed analyst is leaning bullish on Bitcoin (BTC) despite the crypto king hovering more than 20% below the all-time high reached in January.

The analyst pseudonymously known as Rekt Capital tells his 542,500 followers on the social media platform X that the heavy selling that Bitcoin has experienced over the past couple of weeks is about to end.

“It has been a seller-dominated market over the past two weeks, with above-average seller volume being a daily occurrence.

However, there’s been declining seller volume over this period.

This should contribute to seller exhaustion sooner than later.”

The pseudonymous analyst further says that Bitcoin could bottom out if the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the weekly time frame maintains a support level that stretches back to early 2024. The RSI, a momentum oscillator used to determine oversold or overbought conditions, is calibrated between 0 and 100 with a reading of or below 30 indicating oversold conditions and a reading of or above 70 suggesting overbought conditions.

“The last few times that Bitcoin dropped into RSI=44 (blue), the price didn’t bottom right away but was very close to the ultimate bottom.

Hold the weekly RSI=44 and the Bitcoin bottom shouldn’t be far away.”

The widely followed analyst also says that Bitcoin is forming a bullish divergence on the daily time frame. A bullish divergence occurs when the price forms lower lows while an indicator such as the RSI forms higher highs. According to Rekt Capital, the bullish divergence forming on Bitcoin’s daily chart is a very early-stage positive sign for the crypto king.

Bitcoin is trading at $84,145 at time of writing.

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