The cryptocurrency market recovered quite well on Sept. 11, pushing new boundaries of the bearish market further and potentially making even more progress than anticipated. The surge in RLUSD volume could suggest more careful positioning, though. In our most recent market prediction, we broke down how bulls started coming back.

RLUSDT volume spike

Around $200 million have moved through Ripple’s stablecoin, RLUSD, in the past day, marking a huge spike in trading volume. This spike is garnering attention throughout the cryptocurrency market, for a token that normally keeps a low-key, stable profile as a USD-pegged stablecoin.

There could be a number of causes for this kind of movement. In order to protect themselves from the volatility of more risky assets like Bitcoin or Ethereum, institutional players may be moving their money into RLUSD. Stablecoins are probably being used as a safe haven by some traders due to recent volatility in altcoins and significant inflows into exchanges.

• The volume might indicate early activity from payment corridors opening up behind the scenes, given Ripple’s continuous push for adoption in cross-border payments and settlements. The main lesson learned from the spike is that RLUSD remains steady, bolstering trust in its peg mechanism.

• If the volume rise continues, it may signal the start of a larger uptake of Ripple’s stablecoin on payment and trading platforms. Investors should monitor whether the higher demand results in deeper liquidity across exchanges in the near future, as this would make the RLUSD a more dependable trading pair.

In general, speculation is less important than the overall positioning of the cryptocurrency market when it comes to RLUSD’s $200 million volume surge. In a way, it draws attention to the rising need for stability on an unpredictable market and suggests that Ripple’s stablecoin might become more significant in future global liquidity flows.

How good can DOGE be?

Dogecoin has performed surprisingly well, breaking through the $0.24 mark, which few had predicted given its slow performance in recent months. DOGE — which was once thought to be a meme-driven asset vulnerable to hype cycles — is now exhibiting resilience, defying general market uncertainty and proving its capacity to surprise both ardent supporters and doubters. 

The 100-day and 200-day EMAs of Dogecoin have been a solid base for buyers, and the cryptocurrency has continuously respected important support zones in the $0.21-$0.22 range in recent weeks. With bulls intervening at pivotal points, the recovery from these levels and the break above short-term moving averages suggest that momentum is improving. 

You Might Also Like

Additionally, there has been a slight increase in trading volume, which could indicate that fresh market interest is emerging. The RSI, which is close to 59, indicates that bullish pressure is increasing without being overbought. This allows for more upside before reaching harsh circumstances.

If DOGE stays above $0.24, the next logical resistance is located between $0.27 and $0.28, where earlier rallies this summer were capped. A run toward $0.30, which would represent a major psychological milestone, might be possible if that zone is successfully broken. The fact that this rally coincides with a decline in the enthusiasm surrounding meme coins is what makes it so intriguing. 

It appears that technical strength and accumulation rather than speculative mania were the driving forces behind DOGE’s move. Dogecoin may start to establish a reputation as a reliable mid-cap cryptocurrency with steady investor support if this trend keeps up. In summary, Dogecoin has resurfaced as a contender in the current market cycle after its unexpected breakout above $0.24 has dispelled bearish expectations.

Ethereum too quiet

With price action settling in the $4,300 range and volatility at all-time lows, Ethereum is exhibiting an unusual calm. The second-largest cryptocurrency believes that this quiet time is misleading and could be a risky prelude to a storm.

With tight candles and little volume, ETH has been trading sideways on the charts for more than a week. The market seems to be losing liquidity, which suggests that traders are holding off until something clear happens. In the past, these periods of inaction frequently came before violent outbursts.

Ethereum is holding at high levels without either buyers or sellers controlling the market, which is more concerning than just the lack of movement. This implies that it might release a surge strong enough to destroy everything in its path when momentum eventually returns.

You Might Also Like

The thesis is supported by technical indicators. There is still plenty of opportunity for growth as the RSI is neutral but balanced at 51. Ethereum, meanwhile, is still trading above its 50-day EMA, indicating that the bullish structure is still in place even in the absence of any immediate action.

Failure to hold current levels could result in a retest of $4,100 or even $3,800, while a clean breakout above $4,500 could pave the way to the eagerly anticipated $5,000 mark. Because there is less liquidity, there is a greater chance that a sudden surge in buying pressure will lead to a series of short liquidations, which would send ETH skyrocketing.

On the other hand, if bears take advantage of the situation, the same lack of liquidity may accelerate a sharp decline. Although Ethereum’s silence is unsettling, it also prepares the market for the next pivotal action.

The storm has the potential to propel ETH to new heights with $5,000 as the main target if bulls make a strong comeback. The calm should be interpreted as a warning rather than a sign of safety until that time.

The general state of the market is cautiously positive. With the comeback of Bitcoin, Ethereum and other grands, smaller assets are gaining more traction and might show us long-awaited recoveries. Unfortunately, if stablecoin volumes keep on growing, it would be a sign of a bearish shift.

Ethereum co-founder and its frontman, Vitalik Buterin, has made an important prediction about one of the ways AI bots may impact the future generation of people positively.

He also shared his take on a phenomenon that is quite popular at the moment — doomscrolling.

Buterin makes important AI prediction

Responding to a tweet published by X user @RuxandraTeslo about doomscrolling, Vitalik Buterin shared his take on this issue. He stated that he believes “there are good things to doomscroll and bad things to doomscroll.”

Right after that, he jumped onto another linked subject, which can be considered the doomscrolling of the future — using AI chatbots.

He predicted that AI can help shape “some of the smartest people of the next generation.” They may become that if they “spend their teenagehood curiously asking the bot all kinds of questions about science, the world, etc for hours a day.”

On the other hand, per Buterin, there will be lots of teenagers who will “waste their lives talking to AI all day about much less meaningful things.”

You Might Also Like

The Black Swan’s author on future of AI

Earlier today, the renowned scholar, statistician and author of such popular books as “The Black Swan” and “Skin in the Game,” Nassim Taleb, also opined on the future impact of artificial intelligence on humanity.

In particular, he spoke about one sphere so far — medicine. Taleb said that while AI can hardly replace doctors yet, it can disrupt the sphere of medical education by helping autodidacts educate themselves much more efficiently.

Shiba Inu is displaying early indications of resilience in the face of recent bearish pressure, which could stop it from falling further and adding a zero to its price. SHIB has landed close to the $0.00001200 level, a crucial support area that aligns with multiple short-term technical zones and historical horizontal support following a pullback from the $0.00001500 region.

The most noteworthy finding is that SHIB has started to bounce from the zone of $0.00001200, possibly forming a local bottom. Wicks reject further declines, indicating a stabilization pattern in the price action. Additionally, the RSI is rebounding from the oversold threshold, which is hovering around 39 and traditionally indicates that selling momentum has run its course.

You Might Also Like

Technically, the 100 and 200 EMAs are in the vicinity of $0.00001330 and $0.00001430, respectively. These are significant resistance zones, but they could also be target areas if the bounce stabilizes. Breaking back above the 50 EMA ($0.00001315), which would indicate a return of bullish control, is currently necessary for a short-term recovery.

Since the volume is neutral, there isn’t a panic sell-off going on. Although there has been a recent decline in long-term large transaction volume, which indicates weak whale activity, the price structure itself is still intact within a larger consolidation pattern. All things considered, Shiba Inu is still far from its speculative peak, but it would be premature to add another zero to its price at this time.

Momentum to return to mid-July levels around $0.00001500 could be generated by a brief recovery from current levels. One step at a time, bulls must retake the EMAs in order for that to occur.

Bitcoin not giving up

The recent decline in Bitcoin from its local peak of $123,000 has brought it to an inflection point, which is the $112,000 mark. This zone is important not only because of previous price action but also because it intersects with the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), which has historically been a dynamic support in bullish trends even though the price is currently bouncing off this level.

Following a clear breakout from the June consolidation zone of $105,000-$107,000, Bitcoin surged to a new local high of $123,000. With decreasing volume suggesting waning momentum, the subsequent correction was anticipated. But since the RSI is still above 44, it appears that Bitcoin is still holding steady in the neutral to bullish range and has not yet entered oversold territory.

Given its multifaceted significance, $112,000 is crucial. BTC had been consolidating below it for almost a month, and it is not only the 50 EMA level but also the neckline of the most recent breakout pattern. As a result, traders are naturally looking for a breakdown or a strong bounce at this point. The 50 EMA is holding the price steady thus far. If it broke below, it would probably allow for a reexamination of the 100 EMA at $107,800 or even the 200 EMA, which is slightly above $100,000. But the bullish structure is still in place as long as Bitcoin has $112,000 in it.

The line that divides a deeper correction from a short-term bullish continuation is in essence $112,000, it is more than just a number. Maintaining this level could strengthen a push toward the $120,000+ range. Losing it could cause Bitcoin to enter a longer cooldown period. Both traders and investors ought to keep a close eye on it.

Ethereum’s movement capacity

The recent decline in Ethereum may not be as dire as it appears. The 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) is a structurally sound level that ETH is currently sitting on after undergoing a healthy correction rather than a collapse after hitting above $3,800. In the past, this level has served as a turning point for continuation trends, and ETH’s capacity to maintain it points to a potential starting point for recovering $4,000.

With its current price of $3,430, ETH is beginning to show indications of slowing its downward momentum. The decline has been adequately cushioned by the green 26 EMA line, and the fact that the market has recovered from that precise area today supports the notion that this could be the local bottom for this correction. Now that the RSI has cooled off from overbought levels, it is in a balanced range around 53, which gives bulls more leeway to push the price higher without going overboard right away.

You Might Also Like

Volume indicates that the selling pressure is not increasing. Buyers seem to have stepped in in response to the decline, which is encouraging. A multi-layered safety net in the $2,700-$3,000 range is created below ETH by a group of powerful support zones, which include the 50 EMA ($2,992), 100 EMA ($2,900) and 200 EMA ($2,704).

The $3,950-$4,000 range, which corresponds with earlier local highs from the current rally, is the next reasonable target if ETH can overcome the $3,600 resistance that signals the beginning of the most recent drawdown. The structure is still bullish since market sentiment is largely unchanged and ETH is still significantly above its mid-term trend supports. In summary, Ethereum is still on track to reach $4,000, and the first significant step in confirming that upward trajectory is to hold the 26 EMA.

Justin Drake, a prominent researcher at the Ethereum Foundation, has unveiled his vision for the next decade.

His vision of “lean Ethereum” will aspire to achieve “extreme performance” with minimum complexity without compromising security or decentralization. 

The quantum threat 

In his lengthy social media post, Drake has pointed to such key advantages of Ethereum as 100% uptime and unmatched client diversity. The second-largest blockchain network boasts a whopping $130 billion worth of economic security. Drake expects Ethereum to top $1 trillion in the future since he is convinced that the chain will function as the “bedrock” of the internet of value.

Drake has noted that Ethereum will have to survive a potential threat posed by quantum computers that could break cryptography. 

Since he views Ethereum as a global public good, it should remain online no matter what. 

You Might Also Like

Draker has proposed replacing older cryptographic primitives (like BLS or KZG) with hash-based alternatives. According to the developer, hash-based cryptography offers a “compelling” response to such megatrends as the rise of SNARKs and the growing threat of quantum computing. 

Aggressive scaling 

Drake does not believe that Ethereum has to choose between scaling and decentralization. The “beast mode” is meant to combine the best of both worlds. 

The ambitious scaling strategy includes real-time zkVMs for faster smart contracts and data availability sampling (DAS) for seamlessly verifying massive amounts of data. 

The network is expected to see “low-hanging fruit” performance boosts in the near future. In the long term, layer-1 is expected to reach 10,000 transactions per second. Meanwhile, layer-2 solutions could potentially achieve 1 million TPS. 

Over the past few weeks, XRP has been on a wild ride, rising from below $2.30 to highs above $3.50. A double top, a well-known bearish chart pattern, could form, but the asset’s recent momentum might be hiding this new technical risk. Based on the current price structure, XRP is making a comeback after a steep decline, after its initial breakout near the $3.50 region. 

The bulls’ continued activity is indicated by the encouraging recovery above $3.20. The catch is that if the price bounces back to the $3.50 region and does not sustain a break, it could print a second peak, the second top of the double top, which could signal a short- or medium-term reversal. 

Also contributing to the worry is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is once again getting close to 75. Bullish strength can be indicated by a strong RSI, but the likelihood of exhaustion is increased when high levels are retested without a fresh breakout. Another important element here is volume. 

Despite strong buying support during the rally toward $3.50, the recent ascent has been on somewhat lower volume, which may indicate waning interest. The formation of lower highs and indications of distribution should be closely monitored by traders if XRP does return to $3.50 and stalls or reverses from that level. 

The double top would be confirmed if there were a confirmed break below the neckline between $3.00 and $3.10, which could push XRP back toward support close to the 50-day EMA at $2.60 or even lower.

Ethereum stays up

Ethereum does not appear to be slowing down. Since emerging from its months-long consolidation range in early July, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has been riding a relentless bullish wave. With its current price of $3,888, ETH has increased by more than 40% in recent weeks, and the bulls continue to have the upper hand. 

The breakout was flawless: Ethereum moved immediately and with high volume past its prior resistance level of $2,900. The 50-day EMA and that level now serve as a strong support zone. Regaining the 200-day EMA and making a strong move above the $3,300-$3,500 range, which confirmed the trend reversal and attracted aggressive buyers, further increased momentum. 

You Might Also Like

The absence of significant drawbacks is the true clutch here. Each consolidation is brief and superficial, indicating high levels of demand. The RSI has reached overbought territory at 82, but historically, ETH can remain extended for a considerable amount of time before a significant correction occurs in strong uptrends like this one.

Psychological resistance is looming close to $4,000, which many traders may consider a short-term target. FOMO-driven inflows would probably be triggered by a clear break above it, which might push Ethereum closer to the $4,400 range, the last local peak observed in late 2021.

Watch the $3,300-$3,500 range as the immediate support on the downside. Buyers will probably intervene at those levels, which also coincide with important moving averages if ETH declines. It appears that Ethereum’s rally will continue unless a macro-level catalyst steps in. Strong momentum encouraging volume and an unquestionably bullish market structure are all present. As of right now, there are no warning signs — just a steady upward trend from a reputable cryptocurrency asset.

Bitcoin’s main target

Bitcoin has formally established $120,000 as a distinct resistance level. Following weeks of consistent rising and numerous retests, the digital gold is still being rejected around this technical and psychological ceiling, creating what seems to be a standard horizontal resistance zone.

In recent weeks price action has shown both growing exhaustion and bullish intent. BTC has failed to close above $120,000 decisively despite several intraday breakouts above that level, indicating the existence of significant sell pressure or profit-taking activity. The comparatively low volume during these attempts raises the possibility that the bulls are running out of immediate fuel to push higher without consolidation.

You Might Also Like

It is not necessarily bearish to look at the current consolidation that is just below resistance. Indicators such as the RSI, which is currently at a neutral 61, can be reset by the market as a result of this healthy pause following a robust uptrend. There is still momentum, and moving averages, particularly the 50 and 100-day EMAs, keep sloping upward, providing strong support zones at $115,000 and $111,000, respectively.

If, on the other hand, the market is unable to make a breakthrough, it may retrace further toward the $111,000-$108,000 support band. For the most part, Bitcoin is still structurally bullish. Stronger confirmation is necessary to maintain the rally though — particularly a convincing breakout above $120,000 with supportive volume. 

TL;DR: Ethereum will use at least ~99.95% less energy post merge.

Ethereum will be completing the transition to Proof-of-Stake in the upcoming months, which brings a myriad of improvements that have been theorized for years. But now that the Beacon chain has been running for a few months, we can actually dig into the numbers. One area that we’re excited to explore involves new energy-use estimates, as we end the process of expending a country’s worth of energy on consensus.

There aren’t any concrete statistics on energy consumption (or even what hardware is used) as of yet, so what follows is a ball-park estimation of the energy consumption of the future of Ethereum.

As many people are running multiple validators, I’ve decided to use the number of unique addresses that made deposits as a proxy for how many servers are out there today. Many stakers could have used multiple eth1 addresses, but this largely cancels out against those with redundant setups.

At the time of writing, there are 140,592 validators from 16,405 unique addresses. Obviously this is heavily skewed by exchanges and staking services, so removing them leaves 87,897 validators assumed to be staking from home. As a sanity check, this implies that the average home-staker runs 5.4 validators which seems like a reasonable estimate to me.

Power Requirements

How much power does it take to run a beacon node (BN), 5.4 validator clients (VC), and an eth1 full-node? Using my personal setup as a base, it’s around 15 watt. Joe Clapis (a Rocket Pool dev) recently ran 10 VCs, a Nimbus BN, and a Geth full node off of a 10Ah USB battery bank for 10 hours, meaning that this setup averaged 5W. It is unlikely that the average staker is running such an optimised setup, so let’s call it 100W all in.

Multiplying this with the 87k validators from before means that home-stakers consume ~1.64 megawatt. Estimating the power consumed by custodial stakers is a bit harder, they run tens of thousands of validator clients with redundancy and backups.

To make life easy, let’s also just assume that they use 100W per 5.5 validators. Based off of the staking infrustructure teams I have spoken to, this is a gross over-estimate. The real answer is something like 50x less (And if you are a custodial staking team consuming more than 5W/ validator hit me up, I’m sure I can help you out).

In total, a Proof-of-Stake Ethereum therefore consumes something on the order of 2.62 megawatt. This is not on the scale of countries, provinces, or even cities, but that of a small town (around 2100 American homes).

For reference, Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus on Ethereum currently consumes the energy equivalent of a medium-sized country, but this is actually necessary to keep a PoW chain safe. As the name suggests, PoW reaches consensus based off of which fork has the most “work” done on it. There are two ways to increase the rate of “work” being done, increase the efficiency of mining hardware and using more hardware at the same time. To prevent a chain from being successfully attacked, miners must be doing “work” at a rate greater than an attacker could. As an attacker is likely to have similar hardware, miners must keep large amounts of efficient hardware running to prevent an attacker from out-mining them and all this hardware uses a lot of power.

Under PoW, as the price of ETH and the hashrate are positively correlated. Therefore, as as the price increases, in equilibrium so too does the power consumed by the network. Under Proof-of-Stake, when the price of ETH increases, the security of the network does too (the value of the ETH at-stake is worth more), but the energy requirements remain unchanged.

Some comparisons

Digiconomist estimates that Ethereum miners currently consume 44.49 TWh per year which works out to 5.13 gigawatt on a continuing basis. This means that PoS is ~2000x more energy efficient based on the conservative estimates above, which reflects a reduction of at least 99.95% in total energy use.

If energy consumption per-transaction is more your speed, that’s ~35Wh/tx (avg ~60K gas/tx) or about 20 minutes of TV. By contrast, Ethereum PoW uses the equivalent energy of a house for 2.8 days per transaction and Bitcoin consumes 38 house-days worth.

Looking Forward

While Ethereum continues to use PoW for now, that won’t be the case for much longer. In the past few weeks, we have seen the emergence of the first testnets for The Merge, the name given to the moment Ethereum switches to from PoW to PoS. Several teams of engineers are working overtime to ensure that The Merge arrives as soon as possible, and without compromising on safety.

Scaling solutions (such as rollups and sharding) will help further decrease the energy consumed per-transaction by leveraging economies of scale.

Ethereum’s power-hungry days are numbered, and I hope that’s true for the rest of the industry too.

Thanks to Joseph Schweitzer, Danny Ryan, Sacha Yves Saint-Leger, Dankrad Feist, and @phil_eth for their input.