Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Crypto traders remain cautious ahead of Thursday’s U.S. CPI report, with BTC trading flat above $111,600, and ETH at $4,298. The CD20, a measure of the performance of the largest digital assets, is trading above 4,000, up 1.6%.

The August Nonfarm Payrolls miss, just 22,000 jobs added versus expectations of 75,000, pushed futures higher and dragged 2-year Treasury yields to year-lows as markets priced in 72 bps of cuts this year. Yet crypto remains rangebound, diverging from broader risk sentiment.

Options markets confirm the defensive stance. QCP Capital noted in its recent Asia Market Update that risk reversals are increasingly skewed toward puts, with short-dated implied vols elevated into CPI.

Polymarket data backs this positioning: ETH carries a 70% chance of staying above $4,600 this month but only 13% odds of breaking $5,600. Traders are bracing for turbulence, not chasing upside. SOL is the outlier, with odds of a new all-time high before 2026 rising sharply, signaling improving breadth beneath the surface.

In a note to CoinDesk, market maker Enflux argues that the SEC’s forward-looking rules for token sales and listings, combined with the steady march of institutions like Coinbase into major indices, show how deeply crypto is embedding into the system. This is the “split-screen reality” of 2025: speculation dominates headlines, while adoption rails are being laid in the background.

The legitimacy narrative also played out in real time on Friday. Michael Saylor’s Strategy was left out of the S&P 500 despite meeting all criteria, while Robinhood was unexpectedly included instead, sending its stock up 7% and underscoring that crypto-adjacent firms with diversified business lines may reach blue-chip status faster than pure treasury plays.

WLFI’s turmoil illustrates the speculative side of the split-screen. The protocol froze over 270 wallets, including Justin Sun’s, to “protect users” after phishing-related compromises.

“On one side, speculative narratives like WLFI risk cannibalizing themselves through governance drama,” Enflux wrote in its note. “On the other hand, institutional-grade infrastructure and regulation are solidifying at a pace that suggests the rails for mainstream adoption are being laid faster than most expect.”

Onchain data shows Sun’s transfers came hours after WLFI’s crash, which was instead driven by shorting and dumping across exchanges. Yet the freeze rattled whales and market makers – shocked that the free market of crypto could be broken by protocol governance fiat – with insiders asking: “If they can do it to Sun, who’s next?”.

The takeaway: near-term volatility and governance drama may cap upside, but the deeper story is that crypto’s institutional and regulatory foundations are hardening.

“Structural legitimacy, not speculation, remains the real story of 2025,” Enflux continued.

For traders, that means bracing for CPI noise; for investors, it means the legitimacy story continues to build.

Market Movement:

BTC: Bitcoin is holding steady above $111K, with support from consolidation near key resistance levels and solid on‑chain support zones. Analysts suggest this stability could pave the way for a breakout, though some caution about a possible pullback toward $100K exists

ETH: Ethereum’s price has eased slightly intraday, trading around $4.3K. This movement may reflect broader crypto market dynamics, including relatively subdued demand and positioning around current technical levels.

Gold: Gold has surged to fresh record highs, recently hitting ~$3,636/oz, as expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts rise amid weak labor data, a soft U.S. dollar, geopolitical concerns, and continued central bank demand.

Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.9% to a record high and the Topix gained 0.52% as investors bet a new LDP leader could deliver fresh fiscal stimulus following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation.

S&P 500: U.S. stocks edged higher Monday, with the S&P 500 up 0.2%, as investors awaited inflation data to gauge the likelihood of a jumbo Fed rate cut next week.

Elsewhere in Crypto

• Upbit Parent Files ‘GIWA’ Trademarks Amid Rumors of New Blockchain Launch (CoinDesk)
• How Trump Came Around to Crypto and What Crypto Wants in Return (Bloomberg)
• Kalshi’s $875 million in August trading volume, recent funding signal rising competition with Polymarket (The Block)

The World Federation of Exchanges (WFE) has called on financial regulators to tighten oversight of tokenized stocks, warning that the products could expose investors to hidden risks and undermine trust in traditional markets.

Reuters reported on Aug. 25 that WFE warned that tokenized equities replicate the appearance of stocks without conferring the same rights or protections that shareholders typically receive.

Unlike conventional shares, tokenized versions allow investors to gain synthetic exposure to a company’s performance without holding legal ownership.

The WFE said this marketing approach risks confusing retail investors, who may assume they hold voting or dividend rights when they do not. If these products fail, the group cautioned, the reputational fallout could extend to listed companies, damaging broader market integrity.

The WFE urged regulators to expand securities laws to cover tokenized assets to prevent such outcomes. It recommended clarifying rules around ownership and custody while restricting the promotion of these instruments as “stock equivalents.”

The industry body outlined its concerns about the fast-growing sector in a letter to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), and the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO).

Tokenized stock rises

The WFE’s intervention comes when tokenized equities are gaining momentum across both crypto-native and mainstream platforms.

Over the past months, prominent crypto trading platforms like Robinhood, Kraken, and Gemini have rolled out tokenized versions of U.S.-traded stocks, offering retail users new ways to gain exposure outside traditional brokerage channels.

That rapid surge in adoption has attracted significant bullish forecasts, with Binance Research estimating that the sector could reach a $1.3 trillion market capitalization if just 1% of global equities moved onto blockchains.

Despite this bullish forecast, tokenized stocks remain a fraction of that potential. Data from RWA.xyz shows the sector holding about $360 million in market capitalization, making it one of the smaller segments of real-world asset tokenization.

Nonetheless, its proponents point to the rising demand from retail and institutional investors as evidence that the market could scale quickly once regulatory clarity arrives.

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Chainlink has introduced a new product called Data Streams, which delivers live pricing data for major US equities and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) directly onto blockchain networks.

According to an Aug. 4 statement, Data Streams is designed to offer live, low-latency data on major US stocks and ETFs, including popular assets like SPY, QQQ, NVDA, AAPL, and MSFT.

These data streams are now live across 37 blockchain networks, enabling the creation of innovative use-cases such as tokenized stock trading, perpetual futures, and synthetic ETFs.

Chainlink’s data stream

Data Streams aggregate real-time data from multiple primary and backup sources to ensure continuous uptime. This information is processed through Chainlink’s decentralized oracle networks (DONs) and delivered on-chain using a structured format.

Importantly, each data point is timestamped, allowing platforms to differentiate between fresh and outdated prices. This feature also supports the automatic suspension of trading during market closures, ensuring that trading is paused during off-hours.

These innovations enable developers to build advanced financial products like perpetual contracts, lending and borrowing platforms, synthetic ETFs, and other complex financial instruments.

With the RWA market projected to reach $30 trillion by 2030, this infrastructure is becoming increasingly vital for ensuring security and scalability in tokenized equity markets.

Chainlink’s Chief Business Officer, Johann Eid, remarked that Data Streams are essential in bridging the gap between traditional finance and blockchain technology.

According to him:

“This is a significant leap forward for tokenized markets—closing a critical gap between traditional finance and blockchain infrastructure.”

Notably, top DeFi protocols like GMX and Kamino Finance have already adopted Data Streams.

Speaking on the integration, Kamino Finance’s co-founder, Thomas Short, emphasized that Data Streams would help the platform enhance its user experience by providing a seamless interface while maintaining trust and security across supported projects.

He added:

“The launch of Data Streams for US equities and ETFs is a critical milestone toward a truly composable onchain financial system that matches the scale and sophistication of traditional markets.”

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We believe access to financial opportunity should be a universal right, not a privilege determined by geography or restricted by outdated infrastructure. Crypto adoption is reshaping global finance, tearing down long-standing barriers to capital markets. 

Today, we’re excited to announce the phased launch of tokenized U.S. equities through Kraken’s platform, giving eligible non-U.S. clients seamless exposure to some of America’s most iconic stocks and ETFs. This marks a major milestone in our ambition to democratize investing, while leveraging the power of crypto innovation to reimagine the future of investing.

Powered by Backed’s groundbreaking xStocks, we are today listing 60 different tokenized assets directly in the Kraken app. We plan to expand the number of available assets over time.

xStocks are available to trade on Kraken 24 hours a day, five days a week and can be withdrawn to self-custodial wallets — giving users 24/7, year-round flexibility to use xStocks onchain as collateral across DeFi in ways traditional equities simply can’t compete with.

We begin our phased rollout today, with plans to expand xStocks support to 185+ countries worldwide over the next several days.

“With xStocks, we’re not launching a novelty. We’re unlocking something foundational,” said Arjun Sethi, Kraken co-CEO. “For the first time, people all over the world can own and use a share of a tokenized stock like they would use money. You can move it, hold it, spend it or borrow against it. All from your wallet, with no intermediaries, no borders and no delays.”

“This is not just about access to markets. It is about shifting power back to the individual. For decades, financial systems were designed around institutions. Slow, gated and exclusive. We are changing that. xStocks gives anyone with a smartphone the ability to participate in global wealth creation; to save, invest and build a better future. Not because they are accredited or privileged, but because they showed up.”

“The long arc of innovation bends toward openness. This is one step closer to making capital markets work for everyone, everywhere.”

Adam Levi, co-founder at Backed, said, “Tokenized equities are the next step for crypto as the space matures from niche digital assets into a market that serves a global audience. This opportunity comes from the tokenization of in-demand equities meeting the influx of previously excluded users, eventually culminating in a market that’s both more efficient, composable and accessible than traditional finance.”

Our initial launch of xStocks commences with SPL-based tokens that have been deployed on the Solana blockchain. Over the coming weeks, we’ll be working with the Backed team to bring xStocks to Kraken clients across a range of other high-performance blockchains.

We believe this isn’t just a new feature, it’s a fundamental shift in how billions of investors will engage with traditional markets, free from costly intermediaries and open around the clock. The future of investing is permissionless, self-custodial and built for everyone. 

Not a Kraken client yet? Create your account and get verified to Intermediate or Pro now.

xStocks are issued by Backed Assets (JE) Limited (a Jersey private limited company) and offered to eligible customers via Payward Digital Solutions Ltd. (“PDSL”), a company incorporated under the laws of Bermuda and licensed to conduct digital asset business by the Bermuda Monetary Authority. xStocks are not nor will be registered with any local securities regulators. PDSL (Kraken) does not provide investment advice and/or recommendations, and, no communication, through any Kraken App or website or otherwise, should be construed as such. Individual investors should make their own decisions or seek professional independent advice if they are unsure as to the suitability / appropriateness of any investment for their circumstances or needs, including potential tax treatment. Investing in xStocks involves an element of risk and may not be suitable for everyone. The value of an investment may go down as well as up and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Not available in the U.S. or to U.S. persons. Geo restrictions apply. Read Kraken’s xStocks Risk Disclosure at kraken.com/legal/xstocks as well as the Base Prospectus and related Final Terms for the xStocks (available on backed.fi)  to learn more.

Bitcoin continues to trade lower for April, surrendering the majority of its Q1 gains as global markets react to escalating US-China trade tensions.

The move, tied to the US trade war, comes amid broader asset repricing, with Treasury yields falling, oil collapsing, and equities entering correction territory.

The above post-tariff chart captures the acute market response since President Trump’s April 2 announcement of sweeping trade penalties and China’s response of an 84% tariff on US goods, a move Beijing described as non-negotiable.

Within days, oil prices collapsed by 20.92%, while SPY fell 10.23% and Bitcoin dropped 7.34%. Bond prices also declined, with US10 and CN10 down 2.42% and 2.58%, respectively, reflecting upward pressure on yields.

Gold, often a traditional safe haven, retreated 2.83%, indicating that liquidity stress and risk-off sentiment dominated across asset classes.

Bitcoin’s relative positioning, down less than SPY and oil but more than bonds and gold, shows that despite strategic reserve narratives, it remains partially tethered to broader macro volatility under acute market stress.

Their overall performance since Donald Trump’s election win solidifies Bitcoin’s relative resilience.

Since the November 2024 US election, Bitcoin is up 11.51 %, and gold is closely trailing at 11.09 percent. Both assets have held ground as traditional markets repriced sharply. SPY has declined 14.42%, and oil prices have collapsed by over 20%, highlighting widespread macro stress.

Meanwhile, the US and Chinese 10-year bond prices (US10 and CN10) have fallen 5.11% and 1.72%, respectively, consistent with expectations of persistent inflation or heightened issuance.

BTC correlation with macro deepens

Bitcoin’s performance since Trump’s inauguration initially tracked with a supportive policy environment.

Public backing of crypto adoption, tokenization of reserves, and re-shoring initiatives contributed to a bullish narrative across digital assets.

However, the latest data shows Bitcoin trading mostly in line with risk assets rather than decoupling from them.

The recent selloff across SPY and the reversal in Treasury yields reflect shifting expectations. Markets are beginning to price in slower growth, tighter consumption, and more defensive positioning. Yale’s Budget Lab projects a 0.9 percentage point decline in real GDP for 2025, with the average household expected to incur $3,800 in additional costs from the tariff regime.

Despite favorable long-term policy framing, Bitcoin has not escaped volatility tied to global liquidity and demand concerns. Institutional allocators appear to be reducing exposure to beta-sensitive assets, crypto included, as recession odds rise.

JPMorgan now places the probability of a global recession at 60%, up from 40% before the April announcements. Goldman Sachs raised its US-specific projection to 45 percent. JPMorgan’s annual letter also cautioned that prolonged tariffs may contribute to persistent inflation, asset volatility, and reduced investment confidence.

Global bond divergence narrows Bitcoin’s safe-haven window

While US Treasury yields have reversed sharply, China’s sovereign bond market is reflecting different stress signals. The China 10-year yield is down to 1.65 percent, dropping 65 basis points year over year.

Trading Economics data also shows consistent yield declines across the 2Y, 5Y, and 30Y curves. These moves imply deflationary pressure, weak external demand, and limited domestic growth rebound potential.

As Citi reported, China’s GDP forecast has been cut from 4.7 percent to 4.2 percent for 2025. However, this is still considerably higher than the US’s current 2.4% growth and projected 3% decline. Kaiyuan Securities projects that US tariffs may reduce Chinese exports by nearly a third, reducing total exports by 4.5 percent and dragging growth by over a percentage point.

Yet,

With both Western and Chinese sovereign curves pricing in downside growth risk, Bitcoin’s role as a global reserve hedge becomes more complicated.

Institutional portfolios may hold back on discretionary allocation until liquidity stabilizes or policy clarity returns.

Trump’s framing of Bitcoin as a reserve-grade digital commodity continues to resonate with parts of the domestic crypto ecosystem, but implementation remains unclear. For now, investors appear to be watching macro signals more than political signaling.

Bitcoin outlook in context of recession risk

The structural narrative surrounding Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge, inflation buffer, or programmable reserve asset remains intact.

However, in periods of macro stress, correlations tend to increase across all risk markets. The latest price action indicates that Bitcoin is not yet viewed as a risk-off asset under liquidity duress.

BTC may still find policy tailwinds if the administration accelerates Bitcoin-native initiatives, introduces digital treasury issuance, or formalizes sovereign Bitcoin holdings. Until then, market participants are trading the asset through a macro lens. Price behavior remains closely tied to risk conditions, recession modeling, and cross-asset liquidity.

Brent crude oil has fallen more than 20 percent since late March, with forward spreads narrowing and surplus pricing increasing. Consumer retrenchment, reduced export demand, and pressure on manufacturing margins all feed into broader market repricing.

Bitcoin, as part of the broader allocation spectrum, remains sensitive to these shifts.

Year-to-date Bitcoin is actually one of the worst-performing assets, second only to oil.

The divergence illustrates how Bitcoin and gold have so far absorbed trade war volatility more effectively than oil, equities, or sovereign debt markets, suggesting that Bitcoin has drawn relative strength even as global liquidity deteriorates.

However, no asset can compare to gold in 2025, up 16%.

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