This is a daily analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

Major cryptocurrencies are looking bullish, with market leader bitcoin BTC$114,140.02 exhibiting a classic inverse head-and-shoulders breakout that could propel it toward $120,000.

But there’s a catch. The daily chart for the S&P 500 E-Mini futures is displaying a bearish pattern, indicating a potential sell-off that could weigh on the cryptocurrency market and trap bulls on the wrong side of the market.

S&P 500 hits record high with rising wedge

The E-mini futures have risen nearly 5% to a record high of $6,542 since Aug. 1. The slow ascent has taken the shape of a rising wedge pattern identified by converging trendlines connecting July 31 and Aug. 15 highs and lows reached on Aug. 1 and Aug. 22.

The converging trendlines indicate that bullish momentum is waning, increasing the likelihood of a sell-off.

When asked to identify and analyze the pattern on the S&P 500 futures, Google Gemini replied, “When a rising wedge, which is a bearish reversal pattern, appears after an extended rally to record highs, it significantly increases the probability of a sharp downside move. It suggests that buyers are exhausted and that the rally is running on fumes. The pattern indicates that the market is setting up for a major trend reversal rather than a simple pullback.”

Cryptocurrencies are known to closely track Wall Street sentiment, which means that a potential decline in the S&P 500 could weigh on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Inflation eyed

The odds of a breakdown in the S&P 500 could rise sharply if Thursday’s U.S. consumer price index (CPI) prints hotter than expected. Such a result, combined with the recent labor market weakness, may rekindle fears of stagflation—the worst-case scenario for risk assets—putting additional pressure on equities and cryptocurrencies alike.

The median forecast for the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August 2025 is a 2.9% year-over-year increase (not seasonally adjusted), according to FactSet. If this estimate holds true, it will be the highest annual rise since January 2025, when the CPI reached 3.0% and well above the Fed’s 2% target. Additionally, this 2.9% figure would surpass the trailing twelve-month average inflation rate of 2.6%.

More importantly, the median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is 3.1%.

BTC, ETH options are already biased bearish

The 25-delta risk reversals tied to Deribit-lited bitcoin and ether options were negative out to December expiry, according to data source Amberdata. In other words, short and near-dated BTC and ETH puts traded at a premium to calls, reflecting a bias for downside protection.

A put option protects the buyer from a decline in the value of the underlying asset. A call provides an asymmetric bullish exposure. The 25-delta risk reversal involves the simultaneous purchase of a put option and sale of a call, or vice versa.

According to Options Insights’ Founder, Imran Lakha, the put bias in BTC is likely due to institutions placing long-term hedges. Flows have continued to trend lower on the over-the-counter tech platform Paradigm.

“Flows again featured the [ETH] 26 Sep 4k put, lifted up to 73v,” Paradigm noted.

XRP is indecisive, DOGE looks north

While BTC’s inverse head-and-shoulders breakout suggests a strong bullish direction, XRP’s price action appears indecisive.

The payments-focused cryptocurrency remains locked in a descending triangle and continues to trade within the Ichimoku cloud. Together, these indicators suggest a period of consolidation and uncertainty.

A breakout from the triangle might invite stronger buying pressure, potentially leading to a re-test of $3.38, the swing high from Aug. 8. That said, the descending triangle, by itself, is generally considered a bearish pattern. That’s because the downward-sloping trendline connecting lower highs indicates that sellers are progressively getting stronger and could soon penetrate the horizontal support level.

Speaking of DOGE, it has retaken the bullish trendline from June lows, trapping sellers on the wrong side of the market. Additionally, prices have crossed into bullish territory above the Ichimoku cloud, which suggests scope for a test of the July high of 28.76 cents.

However, traders still need to watch out for a potential rising wedge breakdown in S&P 500 futures, as a reversal there could cap gains in DOGE and weigh on its price momentum.

• Bitcoin hits $124K ATH as Trump’s pro-crypto reforms and Fed cut hopes drive investor demand.
• Trump opens 401(k)s to Bitcoin, boosting adoption from the $7.5T US retirement market.
• MAGACOIN FINANCE named top 2025 altcoin presale with $11.7M raised and DeFi-meme hybrid appeal.

Bitcoin surged past $124,000 this week, driven by US policy shifts under President Donald Trump and optimism over a September Fed rate cut.

At the same time, analysts are spotlighting MAGACOIN FINANCE as the best altcoin presale for building cycle-defining portfolios in 2025.

Bitcoin hits record high above $124K

Bitcoin reached $124,457 early Thursday before stabilizing near $121,500, marking a fresh all-time high.

The rally follows a breakout from $116,000 earlier in the week and comes amid growing institutional inflows and increased retail participation.

Ethereum also climbed to $4,700, its highest since late 2021, with the two assets now controlling about 70% of the crypto market.

Bitcoin’s market capitalization briefly surpassed Google’s $2.45 trillion valuation, positioning it as the fifth-largest global asset.

Analysts suggest that consistent 401(k) inflows and treasury allocations from major corporations are adding a steady demand layer.

Citi noted that adoption-driven price action is now backed by tangible policy changes, creating a structural shift in Bitcoin’s growth trajectory.

Trump’s pro-crypto reforms fuel demand

President Trump has accelerated efforts to make digital assets more accessible to US citizens.

Recent changes include SEC regulatory adjustments to support crypto products and legislation for stablecoins.

A new executive order now permits Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in 401(k) retirement accounts, unlocking potential demand from the $7.5 trillion US retirement market.

While tariff policies have added pressure to traditional markets, lighter regulations and easier access to crypto are attracting both institutional and retail investors.

MAGACOIN FINANCE rated best altcoin to buy in 2025

As Bitcoin dominates headlines, presale opportunities are drawing attention from strategic portfolio builders.

MAGACOIN FINANCE has been rated by analysts as the best altcoin presale for cycle-defining plays in 2025.

Built on a security-first infrastructure and already exceeding $11.7 million in presale allocations, the project combines meme coin appeal with practical DeFi applications.

Its ongoing presale offers early positioning ahead of expected exchange listings, with forecasts suggesting strong upside potential as adoption scales.

In Sum

Bitcoin’s rally underscores the impact of policy support and macroeconomic shifts on the crypto market.

For investors eyeing diversification, MAGACOIN FINANCE offers an early-stage entry point with strong 2025 potential.

You can learn more about MAGACOIN FINANCE via the official website.

Telegram: https://t.me/magacoinfinance

This article is authored by a third party, and CoinJournal does not endorse or take responsibility for its content, accuracy, quality, advertisements, products, or materials. Readers should independently research and exercise due diligence before making decisions related to the mentioned company.

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Bitcoin is up 9% since last Sunday, showing renewed strength as it approaches key resistance levels. After weeks of choppy price action and uncertainty, momentum is building across the crypto market. Traders and analysts alike are closely watching Bitcoin’s next move, with many calling for a potential breakout above the all-time high. With bullish sentiment rising and liquidity returning to risk assets, a decisive move could be imminent.

Supporting this outlook is a key on-chain signal highlighted by top analyst Darkfost. According to his insights, the short-term holder (STH) realized price ratio recently dropped below 0.995—a level that historically signals STHs are capitulating and selling at a loss. This behavior typically emerges during local bottoms, often presenting high-reward opportunities for long-term investors. It’s these moments of weakness that frequently precede strong recoveries and upward trends.

As Bitcoin pushes higher, the broader market remains optimistic that a confirmed breakout could shift momentum across the altcoin sector as well. For now, the focus remains on whether BTC can sustain current gains and break through resistance decisively. With strong fundamentals, growing institutional interest, and supportive on-chain data, Bitcoin’s next major move may be just around the corner.

Bitcoin Faces Critical Test As Market Awaits Next Move

Bitcoin is once again at a crucial juncture, hovering between its all-time high of $112,000 and key support at $105,000. Bulls are working to break above resistance and spark the next leg higher, while bears aim to drag the price below support and shift momentum in their favor. This standoff has created a volatile and indecisive environment, with price swinging between these levels for days. So far, neither side has been able to establish dominance, leaving traders on edge as the next major move begins to take shape.

Adding to the broader market optimism is the US stock market, which has just reached a new all-time high. Many analysts see this as a leading indicator for crypto, suggesting that Bitcoin and altcoins could be next in line to follow the rally. Liquidity conditions are improving, and risk appetite is returning, setting the stage for a potential breakout if Bitcoin can overcome resistance.

Darkfost recently shared a key on-chain signal supporting this outlook. According to his analysis, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) has dropped below 0.995. Historically, this level indicates that short-term holders are capitulating and selling at a loss—a behavior often seen at local bottoms. When STHs exit in fear, it tends to clear the way for stronger hands to accumulate, laying the groundwork for the next leg up.

With bullish macro signals and on-chain metrics aligning, Bitcoin’s current range could soon give way to a major move. Whether that breakout happens above $112K—or a breakdown below $105K—will determine the tone of the next chapter in this market cycle. For now, all eyes remain on Bitcoin.

BTC Price Action: Testing Key Resistance

Bitcoin is currently trading at $107,321, consolidating just below the critical $109,300 resistance level. This zone has acted as a ceiling for over a month, with multiple failed attempts to break above. The latest recovery from the $103,600 support has been strong, with BTC reclaiming all key moving averages—50 SMA ($105,774), 100 SMA ($105,866), and staying well above the 200 SMA ($97,046)—showing a shift in short-term momentum toward the bulls.

The 12-hour chart displays a clear pattern of higher lows, indicating that buyers are stepping in with increasing confidence. However, the lack of volume during this latest push suggests hesitation, as traders await a confirmed breakout before fully committing. For Bitcoin to gain significant upside traction, it must close multiple candles above $109,300, turning resistance into support.

If bulls fail to break above resistance soon, the $105,000–$103,600 zone becomes the critical area to hold. A breakdown below this range could open the door for a deeper retracement toward the 200 SMA around $97,000. Until then, BTC remains in a neutral-to-bullish posture, with the market watching closely for a decisive move that could shape the next leg of this cycle.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trapped below crucial price levels for the past few days, following its loss of the $85,000 mark last Sunday. Now trading at its lowest levels since November 10, 2024, BTC remains under heavy bearish pressure, with bulls facing an uphill battle to regain control.

The market has been in a consistent downtrend since late January, and fear continues to push lower price targets as investors speculate whether the Bitcoin bull cycle is over. With global uncertainty and macroeconomic instability weighing on risk assets, BTC’s inability to reclaim key resistance levels has intensified concerns about further downside potential.

Top analyst Axel Adler shared insights on X, revealing that the peak of exchange activity over the past four months occurred at $90K, marking the highest daily Bitcoin flow on exchanges. This data suggests that $90,000 has become a critical psychological boundary, with bullish sentiment strengthening above this level and sell-offs increasing when BTC trades below it.

With BTC failing to reclaim lost ground, the market remains on edge, waiting to see whether buyers will step in or if further declines are ahead. The next few days will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s short-term direction.

Bitcoin Faces Heavy Selling Pressure

Bitcoin is struggling with massive selling pressure and uncertainty, as both the crypto and U.S. stock markets remain under stress. Since the U.S. elections in November 2024, macroeconomic volatility and geopolitical tensions have fueled a risk-off environment, preventing BTC from regaining momentum. With global trade war fears escalating, investors are preparing for the worst, driving more capital away from risk assets like Bitcoin and equities.

Adler’s insights highlight that Bitcoin’s peak exchange activity in the past four months occurred at the $90,000 level. This critical price zone recorded the highest daily BTC flow on exchanges, suggesting heavy trading volume and strong market reactions around this level. Furthermore, Adler noted that whenever BTC dropped below $90K, exchange inflows spiked, indicating increased sell-offs and volatility.

According to Adler, $90K now acts as a key psychological boundary between bullish and bearish sentiment. If Bitcoin trades above $90K, market participants gain confidence in further price appreciation. However, if BTC remains below this level, selling pressure intensifies, leading to further declines as traders offload their holdings.

With BTC currently struggling below this psychological threshold, investors remain on edge, waiting for either a decisive recovery or a deeper correction. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $90K in the near term, it could extend its bearish trajectory, testing lower support levels in the coming weeks.

Price Struggles At $83K As Bulls Fight

Bitcoin is currently trading at $83,000, following days of selling pressure that have kept it below the crucial $85K mark. With bears in control, BTC has struggled to establish a strong support zone, leaving investors cautious about the potential for further downside.

For bulls to regain momentum, Bitcoin must reclaim the $90K–$91K range, as this level aligns with the 4-hour 200-moving average (MA) and exponential moving average (EMA). A break and hold above this zone would signal renewed buying strength, potentially setting the stage for a broader recovery rally.

However, if BTC fails to hold above the $85K mark and continues to struggle below the key moving averages, the risk of a steep decline below $80K increases significantly. A breakdown beneath this level could trigger further sell-offs, pushing BTC toward lower demand zones and extending its bearish trend.

With market sentiment still fragile, the next few trading sessions will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin can recover or if another wave of selling pressure will drive prices lower. Bulls must act quickly, or BTC may face further downside risks in the near term.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.