Easing – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Mon, 08 Sep 2025 21:59:23 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.7 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Easing – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 Central bank easing and subdued sentiment indicators indicate crypto bull cycle still in early stage https://earlybirdsinvest.com/central-bank-easing-and-subdued-sentiment-indicators-indicate-crypto-bull-cycle-still-in-early-stage/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/central-bank-easing-and-subdued-sentiment-indicators-indicate-crypto-bull-cycle-still-in-early-stage/#respond Mon, 08 Sep 2025 21:59:22 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/central-bank-easing-and-subdued-sentiment-indicators-indicate-crypto-bull-cycle-still-in-early-stage/

Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, argued that the bull run remains in its early stages based on comprehensive economic indicators.

In a Sept. 8 analysis shared via X, Bittel counters widespread “peak cycle” sentiment in crypto markets, challenging late-cycle narratives by examining traditional economic markers.

Peak sentiment

Classic late-cycle economies typically feature extreme manufacturing sentiment with ISM readings around 60, elevated services sentiment, high homebuilder confidence, strong consumer and worker confidence, bullish investor sentiment, and accelerating wage growth.

Bittel said current data paints a different picture. When scoring inputs from ISM, NAHB, NFIB, BLS, AAII, and The Conference Board into a composite sentiment measure, US economic sentiment remains “very subdued” and far from euphoric late-cycle extremes.

He stated:

“This does not look like an above-trend late-cycle economy. It looks much more like an early-cycle economy trying to build momentum.”

Central bank policy provides additional support for this thesis. Nearly 90% of central banks globally are cutting rates, creating what Bittel describes as “extraordinary” conditions and “a massive tailwind for the business cycle” on a forward-looking basis.

Oil prices reinforce the early-cycle argument, trading nearly 20% below trend and continuing to fall. This represents easing financial conditions rather than the tightening typically associated with late-cycle dynamics.

Historically, oil prices running 50% above trend have signaled recession since the early 1970s.

Bull cycle in early stages

Temporary Help Services data shows “early-cycle vibes” with rising growth from profoundly negative levels, indicating economic recovery rather than rollover.

According to Bittel, late-cycle periods typically feature positive year-on-year growth that’s slowing, reflecting an overheated economy losing steam.

He attributes rising unemployment to the lagging nature of jobs data, calling it “a six-month look in the rear-view mirror.”

Businesses first increase overtime hours and temporary workers before committing to expensive full-time hires with benefits and pensions.

Bittel also frames current conditions as “early-cycle” transitioning to “mid-cycle,” describing the progression as “Macro Spring” (growth up, inflation down), moving toward “Macro Summer” (growth up, inflation up).

He concluded that this macro perspective challenges the prevailing crypto market sentiment, which suggests that the bull cycle has peaked. Instead, he assessed that the current economic conditions support continued expansion rather than contraction.

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Asia Morning Briefing: Analysts Say BTC’s Long-Term Focus Is Easing War Jitters https://earlybirdsinvest.com/asia-morning-briefing-analysts-say-btcs-long-term-focus-is-easing-war-jitters/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/asia-morning-briefing-analysts-say-btcs-long-term-focus-is-easing-war-jitters/#respond Wed, 25 Jun 2025 06:16:37 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/asia-morning-briefing-analysts-say-btcs-long-term-focus-is-easing-war-jitters/

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

After a tense weekend that saw the U.S. bomb an Iranian nuclear site, bitcoin has regained its footing, hovering around $106K as Asia begins its Wednesday session and pushing past levels from earlier this month when Israel bombed Iran.

Part of the reason why crypto has recovered alongside traditional markets is just how correlated the two have become.

“Bitcoin’s sensitivity to traditional asset classes and macroeconomic indicators has evolved markedly over the past few market cycles, reflecting its growing integration into the broader macro-financial system,” a recent report from Glassnode and Avenir Group reads. “Institutional infrastructure has reshaped how capital engages with bitcoin. As a result, its market behavior is increasingly governed by structural liquidity, long-horizon positioning, and regulated access points.”

That institutional backbone was visible again this week.

Semir Gabeljic, director of capital formation and investment strategy at Pythagoras Investments, cited ETF flows as a major tailwind: “The huge recent capital inflows in Bitcoin ETFs of $1.1 billion last week and even $350 million today alone” are driving the positive trend.

Spencer Yang, Core Contributor to Fractal Bitcoin, added that one of the reasons why BTC was able to shake off war jitters so quickly is that fundamentally, nothing has changed about the asset class due to the conflict in the Middle East.

All the metrics that investors would look to for BTC are still there, and other bullish market sentiment is possibly on the way.

“We’re seeing continued interest in protocols like BRC-20, especially with the recent upgrade, as well as Runes and Alkanes, which have been getting a lot of attention,” he added. “So overall, on‑chain activity across the board is increasing thanks to these types of assets.”

The takeaway? As bitcoin becomes increasingly defined by institutional demand and macro liquidity cycles, analysts see its price action as less about reacting to headlines and more about long-term capital commitment. This structural shift is what continues to anchor BTC above $100K, despite the noise.

Tim Draper: Bitcoin Is Eating Crypto as Innovation Flocks to BTC

The Bitcoin blockchain is becoming the new home for crypto innovation, absorbing ideas once exclusive to altcoins, just as Microsoft once consolidated the software revolution under its operating system empire, Tim Draper argued in a recent post on X.

Draper pointed to BTC dominance, a metric equivalent to its “market share,” rising over 60%,up from 40% after the 2017 boom-bust cycle and 50% following the 2021 peak, as proof that Bitcoin is reasserting control over the broader crypto ecosystem.

Much like how Microsoft integrated or cloned early success stories like Lotus 1-2-3, WordPerfect, and PowerPoint to form its software suite, Draper says Bitcoin is now incorporating once-altcoin-exclusive innovations: smart contracts, DeFi, ordinals, and low-cost layer 2s.

“All the successful innovations on other platforms are now being ported to Bitcoin,” Draper wrote, calling it an “acceleration” that mirrors Big Tech consolidation. Developers, he said, are increasingly gravitating toward Bitcoin as the most secure and valuable chain.

Draper, who runs a Bitcoin-focused accelerator with Boost VC, said the next generation of entrepreneurs is building on Bitcoin not just for ideological reasons, but because the infrastructure and ecosystem are now ready.

“Smart entrepreneurs are always building on the platform with the strongest gravitational pull,” he wrote. “That platform is Bitcoin.”

WazirX Granted Extension to Present Revised Restructuring Plan

WazirX has received a court-approved extension from the Singapore High Court, allowing it to present further arguments in support of its proposed Scheme of Arrangement. The court also extended the moratorium on creditor actions, which will now remain in place until a ruling is issued on the revised plan.

In a statement released Monday, the exchange said it is awaiting further directions from the court and reiterated its commitment to resolving outstanding claims. The company’s original restructuring plan, rejected by the court last month, as CoinDesk previously reported, sought to reimburse users affected by a $234 million hack in July 2024 through the issuance of recovery tokens and a transfer of operations to a new entity, Zensui Corporation.

More than 93% of creditors had approved the initial plan, but the court cited concerns around governance and transparency.

Without an approved arrangement, WazirX faces the possibility of liquidation under Singapore’s Companies Act, which could lead to extended delays and reduced creditor recoveries. No date has been set for the next court hearing.

Market Movements

  • BTC: Bitcoin surged past $106,000 after a ceasefire between Israel and Iran eased geopolitical tensions, triggering a breakout fueled by high-conviction buyers, bullish technical signals, and strong on-chain accumulation, while the broader CD20 index also climbed nearly 1% amid renewed market strength.
  • ETH: Ethereum surged 4% to break above $2,450 as Trump’s announcement of an Israel-Iran ceasefire eased global tensions, triggering renewed institutional accumulation and strong on-chain buying momentum.
  • Gold: Gold fell as much as 2% to $3,300 after Trump’s surprise Israel-Iran ceasefire announcement eased geopolitical tensions, weakening safe-haven demand even as the metal remains up over 25% year-to-date.
  • Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.12% as Asia-Pacific markets opened higher Wednesday, buoyed by the Israel-Iran ceasefire and new signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
  • S&P 500: U.S. stocks surged Tuesday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting their highest levels since February as a tech-led rally gained momentum amid growing optimism over a fragile U.S.-brokered Israel-Iran ceasefire.

Elsewhere in Crypto

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Billionaire Ray Dalio Says Fed Shouldn’t Cut Rates Yet, Warns Against Aggressive Easing of Monetary Policy for Bond Market https://earlybirdsinvest.com/billionaire-ray-dalio-says-fed-shouldnt-cut-rates-yet-warns-against-aggressive-easing-of-monetary-policy-for-bond-market/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/billionaire-ray-dalio-says-fed-shouldnt-cut-rates-yet-warns-against-aggressive-easing-of-monetary-policy-for-bond-market/#respond Thu, 22 May 2025 16:54:04 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/billionaire-ray-dalio-says-fed-shouldnt-cut-rates-yet-warns-against-aggressive-easing-of-monetary-policy-for-bond-market/

Billionaire investor and founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, thinks it is not yet time for the Federal Reserve to ease the US monetary policy.

In a new Bloomberg interview, Dalio says the Fed “should not cut interest rates” despite the pressure to do so.

Dalio says that over the longer term, when the current Fed Governor Jay Powell’s term ends in May of 2026, the Fed could, however, end up cutting rates due to political pressure.

“There’s a great deal of uncertainty and there’s a deterioration in sentiment, but really the actual economy. So they (the Fed) are in a difficult position.

I think that when we look farther out, we’re dealing with the political aspects… I think that when there’s a new Fed chair, there will likely be more inclination to cut rates because it’s an old story of conflict between those in power, in political [power], who like stimulation. And because of the enormous impact of interest rates on debt service, because the debts are so large, there’s going to be pressure that way.”

According to Dalio, the aggressive easing of US monetary policy could negatively impact the bond market.

“I think the markets, if they were to see a too aggressive cut in monetary policy, too inappropriate cut, that it would actually be bad for the bond market….

… watch the yield curve. As you get rates rising by long rates and you have also at the same time, let’s say, movement down in the dollar and rises in gold, that kind of dynamic is reflecting a movement out of the bonds. Because the value of money matters a lot.”

 

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Bitcoin Selling Pressure Easing Amid Massive Inflows, Says CryptoQuant CEO – Here’s His Outlook https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-selling-pressure-easing-amid-massive-inflows-says-cryptoquant-ceo-heres-his-outlook/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-selling-pressure-easing-amid-massive-inflows-says-cryptoquant-ceo-heres-his-outlook/#respond Sun, 11 May 2025 05:31:57 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-selling-pressure-easing-amid-massive-inflows-says-cryptoquant-ceo-heres-his-outlook/

The CEO of digital assets analytics platform CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, is changing his bearish stance on Bitcoin (BTC).

Ki Young Ju tells his 421,400 followers on the social media platform X that he was “wrong” to claim that the Bitcoin “bull cycle was over” after the flagship crypto asset fell below $80,000 around two months ago.

The CryptoQuant CEO says the selling pressure on BTC is now easing amid “massive inflows” spurred by the Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

“In the past, the Bitcoin market was pretty simple. The main players were old whales, miners, and new retail investors, basically passing the bag to each other. When retail liquidity dried up and old whales started cashing out, it was relatively easy to predict the cycle peak. It was like a game of musical chairs – everyone tried to cash out at once, and those who didn’t ended up stuck with their holdings.

But now, the Bitcoin market has become much more diverse. ETFs, MicroStrategy (MSTR), institutional investors, and even government agencies are considering buying and selling Bitcoin. In the past, profit-taking cycles were triggered when whales cashed out at the peak, leading to a chain reaction of sell-offs and a price drop.”

According to Ki Young Ju, the growing acceptance of Bitcoin in the mainstream investing industry is disrupting the traditional cycles of the flagship crypto asset.

“However, it feels like it’s time to throw out that cycle theory. New liquidity sources and volume are becoming more uncertain, signaling a transition as the Bitcoin market merges with traditional finance (TradFi). Now, instead of worrying about old whales selling, it’s more important to focus on how much new liquidity is coming from institutions and ETFs since this new influx can outweigh even strong whale sell-offs.”

Bitcoin is trading at $103,346 at time of writing.

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Dogecoin Surges 7% as Bitcoin, XRP See Brief Rally on Hopes of Trade War Easing https://earlybirdsinvest.com/dogecoin-surges-7-as-bitcoin-xrp-see-brief-rally-on-hopes-of-trade-war-easing/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/dogecoin-surges-7-as-bitcoin-xrp-see-brief-rally-on-hopes-of-trade-war-easing/#respond Tue, 25 Mar 2025 07:57:24 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/dogecoin-surges-7-as-bitcoin-xrp-see-brief-rally-on-hopes-of-trade-war-easing/

Dogecoin (DOGE) jumped 7% as majors staged a relief rally on Tuesday driven by talks of the upcoming U.S. tariffs, due on April 2, being more measured than initially expected.

As per reports, President Donald Trump’s planned “reciprocal tariffs” set for April 2 may be more targeted than previously threatened, with some countries exempt and existing metal levies possibly not stacking.

The tariffs unsettled markets in February, shocking stocks and cryptocurrencies alike with bitcoin (BTC) dropping 17.6% to below $80,000 from its January peak.

Last week, the Federal Reserve raised inflation forecasts and lowered growth projections, likely due to Trump’s trade stance, but described the tariff-driven inflation as temporary while maintaining plans for two rate cuts in 2025, supporting risk assets.

This, along with the possibility of milder tariffs, has boosted market optimism, and memecoins are leading the charge. DOGE, pepecoin (PEPE), mog (MOG), floki (FLOKI), among others, are up more than 5% in the past 24 hours, with the meme sector up 5.6% on average, per CoinGecko data.

That has beaten a 3% run in bitcoin, Solana’s SOL and XRP, with the broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index up 2.7%.

Memecoins jump or act as beta bets when ether (ETH) or bitcoin rise because they’re highly speculative assets with amplified sensitivity to broader crypto market trends.

Retail traders often see relief in majors as a signal of bullish sentiment across the crypto ecosystem — chasing higher-risk, higher-reward opportunities like memecoins, which are typically cheaper and can deliver rapid gains in relatively shorter periods.

AI Tokens Remain Stable Despite ‘Bubble’ Talk

Elsewhere, Artificial Intelligence (AI) majors are stable after Alibaba’s Joe Tsai said he sees sign of a bubble forming in the ecosystem, the category is up 4.5% in the last 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data.

“I start to see the beginning of some kind of bubble,” Tsai said during an HSBC conference in Hong Kong. “I start to get worried when people are building data centers on spec. There are a number of people coming up, funds coming out, to raise billions or millions of capital.”

Investment in AI appears to be occurring ahead of current demand, Tsai believes.

NEAR protocol, the largest AI token by market cap, is flat in trading today, but up 14% in the last week as the market continues to positively digest news that Coinbase and the biggest names in AI were working together to collaboratively develop AI agent technology.

Story’s IP token also continues to do well, up 8% on-day, as the project continues to secure notable Hollywood and Korean popstar intellectual property to monetize on its chain. Story has pitched its project as a way for rights holders to survive the AI revolution by easily creating frameworks to license their content for AI training.

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Operation Choke Point 2.0 Not Over Despite OCC Easing Crypto Rules, Says Custodia Bank CEO Caitlin Long https://earlybirdsinvest.com/operation-choke-point-2-0-not-over-despite-occ-easing-crypto-rules-says-custodia-bank-ceo-caitlin-long/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/operation-choke-point-2-0-not-over-despite-occ-easing-crypto-rules-says-custodia-bank-ceo-caitlin-long/#respond Mon, 10 Mar 2025 21:38:09 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/operation-choke-point-2-0-not-over-despite-occ-easing-crypto-rules-says-custodia-bank-ceo-caitlin-long/

A top US regulator’s recent easing of its stance on crypto doesn’t mean that the US government’s crusade against the industry is over, according to Custodia Bank CEO Caitlin Long.

Late last week, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) announced that banks in the US could now go ahead with a range of crypto services, including custody and certain stablecoin activities.

Said Acting Comptroller of the Currency Rodney E. Hood,

“Today’s action will reduce the burden on banks to engage in crypto-related activities and ensure that these bank activities are treated consistently by the OCC, regardless of the underlying technology. I will continue to work diligently to ensure regulations are effective and not excessive, while maintaining a strong federal banking system.”

However, Long says that Operation Choke Point 2.0 – a term commonly used to describe the US government’s covert agenda to stifle the crypto industry – isn’t over unless two other US regulators abandon their unfriendly stance on digital assets.

Last December, a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request by the crypto exchange Coinbase found dozens of instances where the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) asked banks to freeze crypto-related services.

Long also calls upon the Fed to allow Custodia – a prominent digital asset custody bank – to have a master account, or a bank account that financial institutions hold directly with the Federal Reserve.

Says Long,

“AMID ALL THE JUBILATION ABOUT the OCC news, Operation Choke Point 2.0 (OCP 2.0) isn’t over until:
1. Fed and FDIC also rescind their anti-crypto guidance, which is still in effect (Fed & FDIC were far more detrimental to crypto banking than OCC) and

2. Custodia Bank has its Fed master account.

Context: banks that wanted to serve crypto but got regulatory pressure not to (OCP 2.0) were mostly Fed and FDIC-regulated banks, not OCC-regulated. OCC’s move is a big positive an has implications on the other two agencies, but FDIC and Fed anti-crypto guidance is still in effect.

The House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform recently requested access to unredacted documents from the FDIC to investigate allegations that banks were deliberately de-banking the crypto industry.

The FDIC has not formally answered the request.

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SEC Drops OpenSea Investigation Easing Pressure on NFT Market https://earlybirdsinvest.com/sec-drops-opensea-investigation-easing-pressure-on-nft-market/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/sec-drops-opensea-investigation-easing-pressure-on-nft-market/#respond Sun, 23 Feb 2025 13:31:18 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/sec-drops-opensea-investigation-easing-pressure-on-nft-market/

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is closing its investigation into major non-fungible token marketplace OpenSea, the platform’s founder and CEO Devin Finzer said on social media.

The regulator issued a Wells notice against OpenSea in August 2024, indicating it was planning on pursuing an enforcement action against it. The regulator alleged the platform may have been operating as an unregistered securities marketplace.

The SEC’s move comes as the regulator is slated to vote on a deal negotiated with Coinbase to drop its lawsuit against the exchange, which is seen as a boon for the cryptocurrency industry and NFT creators.

“This is a win for everyone who is creating and building in our space. Trying to classify NFTs as securities would have been a step backward—one that misinterprets the law and slows innovation,” Finzer posted.

Reacting to Finzer’s post, Chris Akhavan, chief business officer of NFT marketplace Magic Eden, suggested it was a victory for the wider cryptocurrency space. “While we are competitors in the trenches, we share a deep belief in NFTs and what they will enable,” Akhavan wrote.

The announcement led to an uptick in activity for the native token of NFT marketplace LooksRare. The token, LOOKS, saw a surge in active addresses shortly after the announcement that represents an “approximately fivefold increase compared to the usual figures,” according to data from TheTie.

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