drives – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Sun, 31 Aug 2025 09:53:33 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.7 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 drives – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 Whale Adds $435-M Ethereum As Institutional Demand Drives Market https://earlybirdsinvest.com/whale-adds-435-m-ethereum-as-institutional-demand-drives-market/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/whale-adds-435-m-ethereum-as-institutional-demand-drives-market/#respond Sun, 31 Aug 2025 09:53:32 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/whale-adds-435-m-ethereum-as-institutional-demand-drives-market/

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Ethereum has been one of the strongest performers in the crypto market over the past two months, surging steadily to reach new all-time highs just days ago. Its rally has reinforced Ethereum’s role as the leading altcoin, attracting both institutional attention and retail speculation. However, the landscape is shifting as selling pressure begins to creep in. Some analysts warn that ETH could be at risk of further downside in the coming days, with volatility testing investors’ confidence after such an aggressive run higher.

Yet, while concerns grow, on-chain data reveals that whales continue to accumulate at scale. According to Arkham, a massive whale holding $5.97 billion in Bitcoin has now purchased $434.7 million worth of ETH. Just yesterday, this whale moved $1.1 billion to a new wallet (169q) and has been actively purchasing ETH through Hyperunit. In total, he has accumulated more than $3 billion in ETH, staking the majority of it, a move that signals strong conviction despite near-term uncertainty.

This tug of war between selling pressure and whale accumulation sets the stage for a critical moment in Ethereum’s trajectory. The coming days will reveal whether whales are strong enough to keep ETH supported or if further retracements await.

Whale Stakes Billions In Ethereum As Capital Rotation Grows

According to Arkham, one of the largest whales in the market has now purchased over $3 billion worth of Ethereum (ETH), staking the majority of it. This activity has drawn the attention of both analysts and investors, as it highlights a growing capital rotation trend away from Bitcoin and into Ethereum. The whale in question, who initially held $5.97 billion in BTC, has been gradually converting his position, deploying funds at scale through Hyperunit. His BTC address (169qYZJYkyW7HhmWTj58mVXRZDhMFHPZPd) and ETH address (0x616767179c5305a89f13348134C681061Cf0bA9e) are now being closely tracked by the market as investors speculate on his next move.

Ethereum Whale buying | Source: Arkham
Ethereum Whale buying | Source: Arkham

After moving $1.1 billion in BTC to a fresh wallet, the whale has already purchased $434.7 million in ETH, adding to his massive accumulation and signaling continued confidence in Ethereum’s future. The majority of these holdings are being staked, which reduces liquid supply and underscores a long-term outlook rather than short-term speculation.

Now, the question remains: will he buy the next $650 million today? If so, the additional demand could provide strong support for Ethereum, even as short-term price action shows weakness. More importantly, this capital rotation trend is a clear sign that altcoins are preparing for their turn. As investors rotate from BTC to ETH and beyond, the groundwork for a broader altcoin cycle appears to be forming, setting the stage for heightened volatility and opportunity in the weeks ahead.

Testing Key Demand Level

Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $4,369, showing signs of consolidation after weeks of sharp rallies and subsequent retracements. The chart highlights how ETH has cooled from its recent all-time highs near $4,900, but remains firmly above critical moving averages that continue to guide its bullish structure.

ETH testing key MA | Source: ETHUSDT chart on TradingView
ETH testing key MA | Source: ETHUSDT chart on TradingView

The 50-day moving average, currently near $4,372, is acting as immediate support and has been tested multiple times in recent sessions. Holding above this level is key to maintaining short-term momentum. Meanwhile, the 100-day average is around $3,962, and the 200-day average is at $3,257, reinforcing the long-term bullish trend, suggesting that even deeper pullbacks would likely be met with strong buying interest.

However, Ethereum’s inability to push back above $4,600 highlights waning momentum in the near term. Profit-taking and broader market uncertainty have slowed the pace of gains, leaving ETH vulnerable to further consolidation. A decisive break below $4,350 could open the door to $4,000 as the next major demand zone.

Ethereum remains in a healthy uptrend, but the market is clearly waiting for fresh catalysts. Whether it’s whale accumulation or broader institutional flows, ETH will need renewed buying pressure to retest its highs above $4,800.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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BitMine’s Ethereum strategy drives record stock gains with $20B expansion in play https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitmines-ethereum-strategy-drives-record-stock-gains-with-20b-expansion-in-play/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitmines-ethereum-strategy-drives-record-stock-gains-with-20b-expansion-in-play/#respond Tue, 12 Aug 2025 20:02:33 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitmines-ethereum-strategy-drives-record-stock-gains-with-20b-expansion-in-play/

BitMine, the largest corporate holder of Ethereum, filed an Aug. 12 filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to expand its stock offering by $20 billion.

The filing supplements the company’s earlier at-the-market (ATM) equity program worth $4.5 billion.

BitMine’s equity offerings now stand at roughly $24.5 billion, almost 5x its previous total capacity. The company expects about 173.5 million shares of common stock to be outstanding once the offering closes.

According to the filing, the proceeds will go toward working capital, more Ethereum acquisitions, debt repayment, income-generating asset purchases, and other corporate needs.

This expansion comes less than 24 hours after BitMine revealed it had purchased 317,126 ETH in the past week. That acquisition brought its total holdings to 1.15 million ETH, worth more than $5 billion at current prices.

Meanwhile, market observers have noted that BitMine’s latest funding push could help it secure 5% of Ethereum’s total supply.

Ethereum lifts BitMine stock

BitMine’s aggressive Ethereum accumulation strategy has boosted its stock value significantly.

A report from Pantera Capital showed that the company significantly increased its Ethereum per share (EPS) in the first month after launching its ETH-focused strategy.

According to Pantera:

“BitMine has accumulated more ETH in its first month than Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) did in its first six months executing the strategy.”

At the close of June, BitMine’s shares were priced at $4.27 each, just above its $4 net asset value (NAV) per share. By August, the stock had soared to $51, marking a 1,100% increase in just over a month.

BitMine Ethereum
BitMine’s Stock Growth Driven by Ethereum (Source: Pantera Capital)

According to Pantera, the surge in stock price was primarily driven by an increase in ETH per share (around 60%), a rise in Ethereum’s price from $2,500 to $4,300 (approximately 20%), and a slight boost from NAV expansion (about 20%).

Data from Google Finance shows that the momentum hasn’t slowed and is trading near $60 at press time.

Mentioned in this article
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BTC.com Mining Pool Drives 98% of Bitcoin Miner Flows to Binance https://earlybirdsinvest.com/btc-com-mining-pool-drives-98-of-bitcoin-miner-flows-to-binance/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/btc-com-mining-pool-drives-98-of-bitcoin-miner-flows-to-binance/#respond Fri, 27 Jun 2025 00:14:07 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/btc-com-mining-pool-drives-98-of-bitcoin-miner-flows-to-binance/

The BTC.com mining pool currently dominates miner flows to Binance, as it now accounts for nearly 98% of all BTC transfers from miners to the exchange.

This trend provides critical insight into miner behavior, according to the latest report by CryptoQuant.

Bitcoin Miners Show Patience

Historically, BTC.com increases its outflows to Binance when Bitcoin’s price rises, indicating strategic profit-taking at local tops. On the other hand, when flows drop, it reflects growing miner confidence, as they choose to hold their Bitcoin rather than sell.

Interestingly, despite Bitcoin trading above $100K in recent months, BTC.com’s flows to Binance have sharply declined. This suggests that miners are anticipating further price appreciation and are reducing selling pressure, potentially supporting a more sustained rally.

“Miners are among the smartest players in the market. Watching their moves helps us understand where we are in the cycle.”

Zooming out, a deeper look at network-level data reveals a “seasonal” trend.

Hash Rate Seasonality

The latest development comes as Bitcoin briefly fell below $100,000 this weekend after reports emerged of a US strike on Iranian nuclear sites, dropping to $98,000 in a swift response to geopolitical tensions. However, the dip was short-lived, as the crypto asset rebounded by early Monday.

Despite the recent price milestones, Bitcoin’s on-chain transaction fees remain weak, as per the latest observation by Digital Mining Solutions. In 2025, fees have consistently accounted for less than 1% of the total block reward and have failed to offset the halving-induced subsidy cuts. This weak fee environment means miner revenue, or hash price, is tightly correlated to Bitcoin’s price.

When BTC falls, hashprice drops nearly in sync, with minimal fee support to cushion the decline. Bitcoin’s network hash rate has been highly volatile this year, and has seen several record highs and sharp drops. It peaked at 950 EH/s in mid-June before plunging to 827 EH/s – a 13% decline. This pattern of surges followed by steep corrections has been consistent, with seasonal factors playing a role.

With around half of US mining centered in Texas, heatwaves and energy curtailments in the summer often cause hash rate dips.

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Bitfinex alpha | Spot Demand Drives BTC Strength https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-spot-demand-drives-btc-strength/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-spot-demand-drives-btc-strength/#respond Fri, 13 Jun 2025 02:01:38 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-spot-demand-drives-btc-strength/

Bitfinex alpha | Spot Demand Drives BTC Strength

Bitcoin has been steadily rising since regaining its lowest in the $92,000 range in late April, continuing to show exceptional resilience and structural strength.

The assembly is clearly spot-driven, followed by a short, well-defined phase of integration, followed by a high impulse movement. This pattern suggests healthy accumulation and strong underlying demand, rather than speculative excess. Spot cumulative volume delta over major exchanges reinforces the view that actual buyers dominate the market than leveraged traders.

On the other hand, positioning of derivatives is reactive, with open interest variability highlighting the transition period marked by short squeezes and liquidation-driven resets. The result is a healthier foundation, clearing speculative bubbles, and momentum is supported by a real flow of capital.

With Bitcoin at its all-time high and spot premiums remaining, price action bound to current ranges could simply represent a period of potential pre-breakout stabilization. Short-term pullbacks are still possible, but the broader trends remain solidly constructive.

That’s because inflation is cold, but deeper structural risks are beginning to emerge, so warning signs continue to flash throughout the US economy. The consumer price index rose just 0.2% a month in April and only 2.3% a year. This is the lowest annual profit since early 2021.

The decline in food prices has helped ease pressure from shelter costs, but the outlook remains clouded by uncertainty over tariffs and trade policies. Despite a temporary ceasefire between the US and China, a temporary ceasefire on import tariffs remains, potentially moving forward by July. These unresolved trade tensions pose major challenges for businesses and policymakers.

At the same time, financial tensions are being built at the family level. Recent data from the New York Fed shows an increase in over 90 days of arrears on credit card and student loan balances, highlighting the vulnerable state of consumer finances. As tariffs begin to bite and inflation remains risky, the combination of lower growth rates and rising prices (potential stagflation) has allowed the Federal Reserve to be in a difficult position.

For now, the Fed may remain cautious as core services and housing costs are still rising. However, as economic pressures rise, the coming months will demand both flexibility and vigilance.

Bitcoin’s institutional and corporate adoption continues to grow despite declining markets and regulatory uncertainties. Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala investment company increased its holdings of BlackRock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) in the first quarter of 2025, signaling long-term trust despite a temporary decline in the ETF’s market value. Since its launch in January 2024, IBIT has led the US market for Spot ETF, pulling out more than $45.5 billion inflows and managing $65.4 billion in assets.

In Latin America, Brazil’s Fintech Melluse became the region’s first public company to adopt a Bitcoin financial strategy. After purchasing 274.52 BTC worth $28.4 million, its total holding is now over 320 BTC. The move was supported by shareholders and then followed by a 116% surge in the company’s stock, reflecting strong investors’ support for crypto-based financial strategies.

Meanwhile, the legal landscape remains tense. A US judge rejected joint requests from the SEC and Ripple, relaxed penalties, lifted restrictions and cited procedural errors as the lawsuit is being appealed. The decision will halt the potential settlement of a groundbreaking case that could shape the future of US crypto regulations. Together, these events highlight both the momentum and hurdles facing the growing role of crypto in finance.

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Geopolitical tensions and regulatory uncertainty continue to shape cryptocurrency markets as Cardano

experiences volatile price action between $0.664 and $0.690. Despite strong network fundamentals, including surpassing 110 million total transactions, ADA faces downward pressure amid broader market concerns about inflation and monetary policy decisions.

Technical Analysis

  • ADA-USD exhibited a volatile 24-hour trading range of 0.026 (3.85%), forming a consolidation pattern between $0.664 and $0.690.
  • Significant resistance encountered at $0.690 with high-volume rejection during the 01:00 hour.
  • Strong support established at $0.665 with notable buying pressure emerging at the 10:00 and 12:00 hours.
  • 4-hour moving average suggests a slight bearish bias, with price currently testing mid-range level around $0.672.
  • Clear resistance zone formed around $0.676, with peak volume during the 13:36-13:40 period.
  • Pullback to $0.668 at 14:00 established a new support level, with immediate buying pressure pushing prices back above $0.671.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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Bitfinex alpha | Actual purchasing power drives Bitcoin to a new peak https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-actual-purchasing-power-drives-bitcoin-to-a-new-peak/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-actual-purchasing-power-drives-bitcoin-to-a-new-peak/#respond Mon, 26 May 2025 02:38:03 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitfinex-alpha-actual-purchasing-power-drives-bitcoin-to-a-new-peak/

Bitfinex alpha | Actual purchasing power drives Bitcoin to a new peak

Bitcoin has been steadily increasing since it regained its $92,000 bottom in late April, and continues to show incredible durability and invincible structural strength.

The recent price rise has been a spot market, with strong breakthroughs relaxing after a short, clear stage. This indicates that the accumulation of healthy and potential needs is very solid, rather than being driven by excessive speculative factors. Data on accumulated delta mass (CVD) of large floors still maintains a positive level, making sure they dominate this race rather than leveraging real buyers-people.

Meanwhile, the derivatives market is in a responsive state, with open volatility (OI) indicating that semi-semi-climate pressure and liquidation is a transitional stage that helps clean up the dirty forms of the market. As a result, the current platform will become cleaner and the momentum supported by capital inflows instead of temporary heat generation.

As Bitcoin’s prices have been adjusted slightly after reaching record highs, the price difference (premium) in the spot market is still very high, and current price action actions could be simply a period of strength before explosion. Small adjustments may still occur, but the larger trends still leaning towards positive.

Bitcoin is flying high, but as inflation gradually decreases, warning signs continue to manifest themselves in the US economy, but deeper structural risks begin to emerge. The Consumer Price Index – CPI) rose only 0.2% compared to the previous month and 2.3% compared to last year. This is the lowest increase since the beginning of 2021.

Lower food prices have helped ease pressure from housing costs, but prospects remain ambiguous due to tax instability and trade policies. The US and China have reached a temporary ceasefire agreement, but a massive import tax rate still exists, with new taxes likely in July. These unpopular trade tensions pose a major challenge for both business and policy.

At the same time, financial pressure is high at home. Fed New York data shows an increase in credit debt rates and student loans over 90 days, drawing a pessimistic picture of personal financial situations. When the tariff effects began biting, they drooped along with the risk of inflation, but a combination of price expansion and escalation — also known as male dogs — could put the Federal Reserve in a difficult position.

The cost of core and housing services remains high at the moment, and the Fed may remain cautious. However, as economic pressures increase, flexibility and vigilance will be required in the coming months.

The markets sometimes flicker, legal regulations are still a long story, accepting bitcoin in the business world, and organizations are still developing strongly. Abu Dhabi’s Mubadara Investment Fund strengthened its holdings of BlackRock’s Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT) stock in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a temporary decline in its long-term belief in IBIT’s market value. Since its launch in January 2024, IBIT has led the US ETF spot market, attracting more than $45.5 billion in cash flow and managing a total of $65.4 billion in assets.

In Latin America, Brazil’s Fintech Melluse became the first public company in the region to apply the Bitcoin Reserve Strategy. After purchasing 274.52 BTC worth $28.4 million, the total number of Bitcoins I currently own is over 320 BTC. The move received strong support from shareholders, boosting the company’s stock price and proved investor support for its crypto-based financial strategy.

However, the legal framework remains a tough battle. US judges have rejected general offers between the Secretariat (the Securities Commission and the transaction), rippled over to reduce penalties and remove restrictions. The decision temporarily blocked a potential agreement in a groundbreaking case that could shape the future of US crypto regulations. All these events reflect both the motivations and challenges that crypto faces its journey into the global financial system.

Don’t forget to follow the bitfinex Vietnam Community telegram, Twitter & Facebook To update articles, information and events as soon as possible!

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DeLorean Motor Company has launched a blockchain-powered reservation system for its Alpha 5 EV, making it the first automaker to tokenize car reservations using NFTs on the Sui network.

Key Takeaways

  • DeLorean uses Build Slot NFTs on the Sui blockchain to secure Alpha 5 EV reservations, enhancing transparency and traceability.

  • These NFTs are tradable on a dedicated marketplace using the USDC stablecoin, allowing flexible reservation management.

  • Vehicle data—like maintenance history and battery health—is stored immutably onchain via the FLUX protocol for buyer assurance.

  • Introducing the DeLorean ($DMC) utility token adds an incentive layer to user engagement and ecosystem participation.

  • This approach marks DeLorean as the first to tokenize reservations on Sui.

What Is DeLorean’s Blockchain Initiative?

DeLorean’s blockchain project integrates digital innovation with its automotive heritage. Through the Sui network, the company introduces Build Slot NFTs—unique digital tokens that give holders priority purchase rights for the upcoming Alpha 5 electric vehicle.

These NFTs are stored on a secure, object-oriented blockchain, ensuring verifiable ownership and reducing ambiguity in reservations.

Accompanying this is the $DMC utility token, which expands the brand’s blockchain functionality and incentivizes community participation. According to the DeLorean Labs website, $DMC combines real-world utility with cultural appeal and the credibility of an iconic Web2 brand. Beyond future rewards and access, it may be used to purchase DeLorean vehicles and participate in limited-edition product collaborations with major global brands.

By embedding vehicle data into the FLUX protocol—a decentralized framework for storing vehicle information—DeLorean also aims to ensure a tamper-resistant, transparent vehicle history.

Source: DeLorean

How DeLorean’s Tokenized Reservation System Works

  • NFT Reservations: Buyers purchase Build Slot NFTs, which serve as digital placeholders granting the right to buy the Alpha 5 EV.

  • Marketplace Activity: These NFTs are listed on a proprietary marketplace where users can trade or sell their slots using USDC.

  • Data Integrity: Every Alpha 5 vehicle is paired with onchain data such as maintenance history, battery performance, and odometer records.

  • User Incentives: $DMC tokens may be used to unlock future benefits or services. Specific use cases are yet to be detailed.

This system digitizes the purchase process and adds flexibility and potential resale value compared to traditional reservation models.

How Blockchain Could Rewire Car Ownership

DeLorean’s implementation reflects some broader Web3 adoption trends.

By recording performance metrics and ownership history onchain, the secondary car market benefits from improved data verification. Buyers can assess a vehicle’s condition more reliably than through centralized service records alone.

This use of NFTs aligns with other blockchain applications like property tokenization and digital ticketing, where verifiable digital ownership supports more secure and efficient exchanges.

Frequently Asked Questions

What makes the DeLorean blockchain system different from traditional car reservations?

Traditional reservations offer limited visibility or transferability. DeLorean’s NFT-based model enables transparent, verifiable, and transferable ownership rights.

Can reservation holders sell or trade their NFT slots?

Yes. NFT holders can trade Build Slot NFTs on a dedicated marketplace using USDC, offering flexibility for both end-users and speculators.

What kind of data is stored on the blockchain for each Alpha 5 vehicle?

Data includes battery health, accident records, maintenance logs, and odometer readings—secured via the FLUX protocol. The FLUX protocol is a decentralized storage method that maintains immutable, timestamped vehicle data.

Are there any risks to using this system?

Yes, such as regulatory ambiguity, technical learning curves, and price volatility. DeLorean must address these by educating users and maintaining platform stability.

What is the $DMC token used for?

The $DMC token is expected to provide rewards and access to services within DeLorean’s blockchain platform. However, comprehensive use cases and tokenomics are pending formal release.

Conclusion

DeLorean’s approach to blockchain-based car reservations offers a practical example of how digital tools can improve the way vehicles are reserved and sold. By using NFTs, a utility token, and secure onchain records, the company is testing a new model for ownership and data transparency.

There are still open questions—especially around regulation and how easily people can adopt this technology—but the effort points to a broader shift. As more industries explore decentralized solutions, DeLorean’s system could be an early step in rethinking how we manage car ownership.

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CoinShares: Bitcoin Drives $882M Weekly Inflows into Digital Assets https://earlybirdsinvest.com/coinshares-bitcoin-drives-882m-weekly-inflows-into-digital-assets/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/coinshares-bitcoin-drives-882m-weekly-inflows-into-digital-assets/#respond Tue, 13 May 2025 00:29:27 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/coinshares-bitcoin-drives-882m-weekly-inflows-into-digital-assets/

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to flex its dominance as the top digital asset, attracting $867 million in inflows last week alone, according to a fresh CoinShares report published on May 12.

This influx led the broader crypto investment products market, which collectively saw $882 million in inflows, marking the fourth consecutive week of gains and lifting year-to-date totals to $6.7 billion.

Record ETF Inflows

The surge in investor confidence comes against a backdrop of rising global liquidity and inflationary concerns in the U.S., which have sparked renewed interest in crypto as a hedge.

According to CoinShares analysts, the uptick in inflow is mainly due to a confluence of macroeconomic factors, including a rise in M2 money supply and heightened stagflation risks. Additionally, BTC’s growing institutional appeal, crowned by several U.S. states formally recognizing the flagship cryptocurrency as a strategic reserve asset, is helping to cement its role as a digital safe haven.

The CoinShares report showed that U.S.-listed crypto ETFs have now reached a record $62.9 billion in cumulative net inflows since launching in January 2024, topping the previous peak of $61.6 billion recorded in early February.

Regionally, the United States was the main driver of last week’s activity, with $840 million in inflows, followed by Germany, which raked in $44.5 million, and Australia, which attracted $10.2 million. The story was different for Canada and Hong Kong, which registered outflows of $8 million and $4.3 million, respectively.

Ethereum Struggles for Traction

CoinShares also noted that despite a sharp rise in the price of Ethereum (ETH) in recent days, its inflows still lagged significantly behind BTC, tallying just $1.5 million last week.

Sui drew attention, attracting $11.7 million and outperforming Solana (SOL), which lost $3.4 million worth of capital. Additionally, Sui has accumulated $84 million year-to-date, overtaking SOL’s $76 million and possibly signaling a shift in investor sentiment within the Layer-1 ecosystem.

Apart from shining in fund flows, from a price perspective, Bitcoin also looks to be maintaining its momentum. At the time of this writing, it was trading at $103,853, down a modest 0.8% in the past 24 hours. However, in the last week, it has gained 10.3%, moving within a 7-day range of $93,724 to $104,710, according to CoinGecko.

While it has slightly underperformed the broader crypto market, which went up 13.3% in the previous seven days, the number one crypto asset’s 30-day performance is solid, gaining 24.5% in that time. It remains just 4.6% below its all-time high of $108,786.

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Bitcoin Soars Toward $100,000 As Treasury, Not Fed, Drives Liquidity: Expert https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-soars-toward-100000-as-treasury-not-fed-drives-liquidity-expert/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-soars-toward-100000-as-treasury-not-fed-drives-liquidity-expert/#respond Thu, 08 May 2025 13:10:32 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-soars-toward-100000-as-treasury-not-fed-drives-liquidity-expert/

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Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX and principal of Maelstrom Capital, contends that the US Treasury—rather than the Federal Reserve—is the true engine of the current bull market in risk assets, Bitcoin foremost among them. Speaking in a live-streamed one-on-one interview Wednesday evening, Hayes argued that traders should “ignore Powell” and instead parse every word and data table that comes out of the Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement.

“Powell hasn’t really mattered for many years,” Hayes insisted, dismissing the Fed chair’s decision to leave the federal-funds rate at 4.25 % to 4.50 % for a third consecutive meeting. “The real show is at the Treasury Department. […] Listen to Bessent. Ignore Powell. He’s irrelevant.”

Hayes’s thesis rests on a liquidity dynamic that first surfaced in the third quarter of 2022. Then-Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, he said, spotted “two-and-a-half trillion dollars of excess money sitting in the Fed’s reverse repo facility” and shifted issuance toward short-dated Treasury bills. That maneuver, by Hayes’s calculation, siphoned dormant cash out of the Fed and “injected it into the global money markets,” seeding a broad rally that lifted equities, bonds, gold and—most forcefully—crypto. “Powell didn’t matter in 2022 under a Democratic regime,” he said. “He doesn’t matter today under the Republican regime.”

Related Reading

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s newly minted authority to conduct buybacks is, in Hayes’s view, the next accelerant. Buybacks would allow the Treasury to recycle on-the-run securities and absorb supply shocks without forcing the Fed to expand its balance sheet overtly. “Bessent has tools,” Hayes noted, citing an April 11–12 Bloomberg appearance. “Powell will sit back and say ‘I’m going to look at data,’ but he’s a sideshow.”

Bitcoin’s Macro Logic

Hayes reduces the trading implications to a single variable: the quantity of fiat dollars in circulation. “If there is a bigger quantity of fiat dollars in the world than there were yesterday, Bitcoin and crypto will do well,” he said. Price-stability debates, exchange-rate gyrations and even the trajectory of the US Dollar Index (DXY) are secondary. “Bitcoin doesn’t care. All we care about is: Is there more dollars in the system today than yesterday?”
That framework underpins his long-running forecast that Bitcoin can reach $1 million before 2028. The target is deliberately round—“We’re humans, we’re dumb, let’s just pick a round number that’s big”—yet Hayes grounds it in compounding fiscal pressures.

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Interest on the US national debt was the fastest-growing line item in the most recent Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee presentation; Social Security, Medicare and defense costs, he argued, will only push borrowing needs higher. “There’s just no way the US government is going to stop spending money,” he said, adding that he expects “an acceleration of money printing and fiscal debasement” once Powell’s term expires in May 2026.

Asked how he is allocating capital, Hayes said about 60%–65% of his liquid portfolio is in Bitcoin, 20% in Ether, with the remainder in a handful of what he called “quality shitcoins.” He highlighted three projects—Pendle, EtherFi and Ethena—as examples of what he calls “fundamental season,” protocols that generate real revenue and share it with token-holders.

The timing of a broader rotation into altcoins, he added, will depend on Bitcoin dominance. “I think we need to get above 70% before we start seeing a rotation back into alts,” a threshold he tentatively places in the $110,000–$150,000 BTC price range.

Hayes was skeptical that the US–China tariff confrontation will meaningfully shrink the bilateral trade gap. Both sides, he said, need a “face-saving announcement” for domestic audiences, but the United States will continue importing Chinese goods, whether directly or through third-countries. Over time, he expects Washington to rely less on tariffs and more on capital-account measures—such as user fees on Treasuries held by foreigners—to re-engineer trade flows without asking US consumers to “buy less stuff.”

A weaker dollar, in his model, is a by-product of those adjustments, not a centrally planned objective. “If foreigners sell less things in dollars and those dollars are not invested in the financial markets, the dollar will go down in value,” he said. That, again, feeds the Bitcoin bid.

At press time, BTC traded at $98,827.

Bitcoin price
Bitcoin nears $100,000 again, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin’s volatility drives record volumes for perpetual futures https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoins-volatility-drives-record-volumes-for-perpetual-futures/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoins-volatility-drives-record-volumes-for-perpetual-futures/#respond Wed, 05 Mar 2025 02:18:50 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoins-volatility-drives-record-volumes-for-perpetual-futures/ President Donald Trump’s surprise announcement about a strategic crypto reserve triggered an aggressive wave of volatility in the market. Bitcoin’s abrupt spikes and drops in the past several days had a pronounced effect on the futures market, driving trading volumes, shifts in open interests, and large-scale liquidations.

Bitcoin’s perpetual futures (perps) overwhelmingly dominated trading activity compared to quarterly delivery futures. On the day of the announcement, perpetual swap volumes were one to two orders of magnitude higher than volumes for any fixed-expiry futures.

For instance, Binance’s BTC perpetual contract alone traded on the order of roughly $42 billion in 24-hour volume (far surpassing any other venue), according to Coinglass data. In contrast, no quarterly futures contract reached more than $200 million in volume.

Bitcoin futures quarterly delivery
Table showing the trading volume, OI, and liquidation data for Bitcoin futures with a quarterly delivery across exchanges on Mar. 4, 2025 (Source: CoinGlass)

Data from CoinGlass showed that major exchanges’ perpetual BTC pairs, each trading tens of billions of perps, account for the vast majority of the $159B+ futures volume on this volatile day. This disparity highlights that traders overwhelmingly favor perpetual swaps for Bitcoin exposure.

Perpetual futures Bitcoin
Table showing the trading volume, OI, and liquidation data for perpetual Bitcoin futures across exchanges on Mar. 4, 2025 (Source: CoinGlass)

Perpetual futures offer greater flexibility and liquidity than quarterly futures. They never expire, so traders can hold positions without worrying about rolling over contracts or expiration dates. This makes perps ideal for short-term speculation and continuous high-leverage trading. Funding rate payments every 8 hours keep perps tethered to spot prices, but otherwise, traders face no settlement, attracting more participation.

In contrast, quarterly futures have a fixed expiry/settlement; they are used more by longer-term hedgers or arbitrageurs and see lower speculative interest. As a result, perps have become the “dominant force” in crypto derivatives, routinely accounting for well over 80% to 90% of Bitcoin futures volume.

The Trump news induced extreme volatility that spiked futures trading across the board. Bitcoin’s roughly 10% price jolt was accompanied by a surge in futures volumes, open interest, and trade counts on major exchanges.

Total BTC futures volume jumped to enormous levels — on the order of $150–160 billion in 24 hours (across all exchanges), which is significantly above normal. This was an over 7% increase from the previous day’s volume, which was already elevated, per derivatives data. Major venues like Binance, Bybit, OKX, and Bitget all saw record activity.

For example, Binance’s futures platform processed roughly 17.3 million BTC trades during the 24 hours around the announcement (versus its usual daily trade count in the single-digit millions), while Bybit saw approximately 6.8M trades and OKX about 4.0M, indicating how frantic trading became. Such a dramatic increase in trade count reflects algorithmic and high-frequency traders piling in and manual traders reacting en masse.

Open interest (OI) also swung sharply. Immediately as prices surged, OI was initially flat or only modestly changed, suggesting the rally was driven by short-term covering and spot buying rather than new longs. Many short sellers closed positions (reducing OI) while an influx of long orders filled their place, resulting in little net change at first.

However, as the volatility continued, open interest began climbing — traders opened new positions to ride the momentum or hedge. Within 24 hours, total BTC futures OI grew about 5% to 7%, rising from roughly $51 billion to $54.64 billion. Open interest expanded after the announcement, indicating additional money flowed into futures after the initial shock (likely as traders positioned for the next move).

Trader positioning before and after the announcement shifted dramatically. For most of last week, sentiment was relatively bearish/neutral — many traders were positioned short, expecting continued price weakness. The fact that short liquidations dominated the initial move (2.4x the long liquidations on BTC) shows traders anticipated a price decline and were unprepared for the rally.

Different exchanges saw varying impacts during this turmoil, mainly reflecting their clientele and mechanics. Binance, the largest crypto futures exchange, unsurprisingly led in activity — accounting for the single greatest share of volume and open interest.

During the surge, Binance’s BTC perpetual volume ($51 billion) was roughly double that of the next-largest venue. It also maintained the highest open interest (about 35% to 40% of the total market). This suggests that Binance traders (a mix of retail and larger players) were extremely active and added significantly to positions.

Meanwhile, due to its schedule, the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) – a regulated venue for institutional futures – had a very different reaction. The Trump announcement came over the weekend when CME’s Bitcoin futures were closed. When CME opened for trading on Monday, it gapped up dramatically.

The March CME BTC contract opened around $95,000 (up from about $85,720 on Friday’s close), creating a record gap of over $9,200. This shows how much spot prices moved in the interim. CME’s volume and open interest also jumped as institutional traders reacted to the news, but CME’s overall share remains smaller compared to the crypto-native exchanges.

The post Bitcoin’s volatility drives record volumes for perpetual futures appeared first on CryptoSlate.

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