Key points:

• Bitcoin nears three-week highs as US CPI data matches expectations.

• Plenty of market participants see Bitcoin heading higher as aresult, perhaps after a dip to trap late longs.

• CPI has seen BTC price fakeouts in recent months.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw telltale volatility at Thursday’s Wall Street open as US macro data furthered interest-rate cut odds.

CPI bullseye sees calls for Bitcoin going “higher”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD spiking to $114,731.

The August print of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in as expected, complementing a marked cooling of the Producer Price Index (PPI) the day prior.

While CPI was at its highest since January, the headline figure was instead initial jobless claims, which saw their largest numbers since October 2021 at 263,000 versus 235,000 expected.

Weekly jobless claims just hit 263,000. That’s the highest weekly number since October 2021. pic.twitter.com/5hoLBpNCEM

— Josh Schafer (@_JoshSchafer) September 11, 2025

Amid ongoing concerns about labor market weakness, bets of the Fed cutting rates at its Sept. 17 meeting only strengthened after the CPI release, with markets even seeing an 11% chance of the cut being more than the minimum 0.25%.

“Markets are now pricing-in 75 basis points of rate cuts by year-end,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in a follow-up thread on X. 

“While CPI inflation continues to rise, the labor market is simply too weak to ignore. Next week will be a big week.”

Crypto commentators saw the case for higher prices next as Bitcoin passed $114,500 for the first time since Aug. 24.

“PPI much lower than expected, CPI as expected,” popular trader Jelle responded in an X post. 

“Conclusion: Inflation not as bad as expected – bring on the rate cut later this month. News now behind us, time to resume the scheduled programme: higher.”

BTC price risks repeating US inflation data trap

BTC price forecasts also stressed the importance of recent support reclaims.

Related: Bitcoin price can hit $160K in October as MACD golden cross returns

For fellow trader BitBull, flipping $113,500 from resistance to support was the key low-time frame event, which opened the door to a rematch with all-time highs.

$BTC has reclaimed a very crucial level.

The $113.5K level which acted as a resistance has now been flipped into support.

Now the next key level for Bitcoin is to reclaim $117K level, and a new ATH will be confirmed. pic.twitter.com/3QdrCtH4ho

— BitBull (@AkaBull_) September 11, 2025

Some perspectives nonetheless saw a fresh support retest coming before a return to price discovery.

Trader Skew argued that the market would attempt to trap and liquidate longs that entered on the CPI release.

“One more liquidation before higher,” part of an X post suggested, noting 2,000 BTC of liquidity appearing on exchange order books.

Crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows went further, suggesting that BTC/USD would copy previous CPI behavior to first rise then plumb fresh lows.

“In the last 3 CPI data releases, Bitcoin rallied before CPI data and dumped right after the data release,” he observed alongside an explanatory chart. 

“This time, BTC has rallied before today’s CPI data release, which means a dump could happen.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

As Asia begins its trading day, bitcoin

is trading above $104,500 and, despite a possible looming war in the Middle East, has been relatively flat on the day with negligible market movement. Indeed, for the last full week, BTC is only down 2%, according to CoinDesk market data.

Analysts are debating whether the crypto market’s current stillness is a sign of strength or if something more precarious is afoot.

Three new reports this week from CryptoQuant, Glassnode, and trading firm Flowdesk all point to the same surface conditions: low volatility, tight price action, and subdued on-chain activity. Additionally, retail participation has waned, and institutional players, from ETFs to whales, are now shaping the structure of flows.

But it’s CryptoQuant that’s flashing the most urgent warning.

In its June 19 report, CryptoQuant argued that BTC could soon revisit $92,000 support or even fall as low as $81,000 if demand continues to deteriorate.

Spot demand is still increasing, but well below trend. ETF flows have dropped by more than 60% since April, while whale accumulation has halved. Short-term holders, who are usually newer market participants, have shed approximately 800,000 BTC since late May.

Their demand momentum indicator, which tracks directional buying strength across key cohorts, is now reading negative 2 million BTC, the lowest in CryptoQuant’s dataset.

Glassnode, however, sees the same signals and arrives at a far less dire conclusion.

In its weekly on-chain update, the firm acknowledges that the Bitcoin blockchain is “quiet,” meaning transaction counts are down, fees are minimal, and miner revenue is subdued.

However, this suggests that it may not be a weakness, but rather a reflection of the network’s evolution. On-chain settlement volume remains high, but it’s concentrated in large-value transfers, suggesting the chain is increasingly being used by institutions and whales.

The derivatives market, Glassnode notes, now dwarfs on-chain activity, with futures and options volumes regularly exceeding spot by 7x–16x.

That shift has brought more sophisticated hedging, better collateral practices, and a more mature, if less frenetic, market structure.

France-based Flowdesk, a market maker and trading firm, has views that fall somewhere in between.

While noting thinning altcoin flows and flat market-making volumes, its June 19 update describes the market as “coiled,” not cracking.

Flowdesk highlights a surge in tokenized assets, such as Gold-backed XAUT (up 56% in volume), stablecoin growth, and increasing RWA activity.

To them, low volatility may simply be the calm before a directional breakout, which is not necessarily downwards.

But in the end, no one seems to hold a reliable map for what’s ahead.

Even Polymarket bettors aren’t sure as there is a near equal chance of BTC dropping to $90K in June or moving up to $115K-120K.

One thing is for sure: the tug-of-war between bullish institutional activities and waning retail demand potentially opens bitcoin up to dramatic moves on either side of the trade, which will likely dictate the market’s next chapter.

Presto Research Says Crypto Treasury Companies Have Less Risk Than You Think

A new report from Presto Research argues that Crypto Treasury Companies (CTCs), such as Strategy and Metaplanet, are not just leveraged bitcoin ETFs, but a new form of financial engineering with less risk than many investors assume.

Strategy’s latest raise, which raised nearly $1 billion via perpetual preferred shares, shows how BTC’s volatility can be used to an issuer’s advantage.

These securities, along with convertible bonds and at-the-market equity sales, allow CTCs to fund aggressive crypto accumulation without triggering margin risk.

Presto points out that Strategy’s BTC is unpledged and Metaplanet’s bonds are unsecured, meaning collateral liquidation, the primary trigger in past crypto blowups like Celsius and Three Arrows, is largely absent here. That does not eliminate risk, but it changes the nature of it.

The real challenge, Presto argues, is not crypto exposure itself but the discipline to manage dilution, cash flow, and capital timing.

Metaplanet’s “bitcoin yield” metric, which measures BTC per fully diluted share, reflects that focus on shareholder value.

As long as CTCs can manage the financial mechanics behind their accumulation strategies, they will earn NAV premiums just like high-growth companies in traditional markets. But if they miscalculate, the same tools that fuel their rise could accelerate their fall.

Semler Scientific Maps Bold Plan to Hold 105,000 BTC by 2027

Semler Scientific (Nasdaq: SMLR) has unveiled one of the most aggressive bitcoin accumulation roadmaps in corporate history, announcing plans to hold 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025, 42,000 by 2026, and a staggering 105,000 by the close of 2027.

The California-based medical device maker, which pivoted to a bitcoin treasury strategy last year, is effectively trying to increase its current bitcoin stash of 4,449 coins by more than two fold over the next 30 months.

It plans to do so using a mix of equity raises, debt financing, and operational cash flow.

There aren’t specific details of how the company plans to fund the buy. Hwever, historically Semler’s primary mechanism for acquiring bitcoin was selling new shares under its at-the-market (ATM) program, which relies on the company trading at a premium to its net asset value (NAV).

According to data from Strategy-Tracker, Semler’s mNAV currently sits at 0.859x, meaning the market values the firm’s equity lower than its BTC holdings, which could be cutting off its ability to raise accretive capital.

How this dynamic plays out, would be worth watching as the firm initiates more bitcoin buying. Even as bitcoin has surged to all-time highs above $100,000, Semler shares are down nearly 40% on the year.

Market Movements:

• BTC: Bitcoin remains stuck below $105K despite strong ETF inflows, with repeated resistance at $105,150 and signs of institutional accumulation offset by short-term bearish momentum and macro volatility.
• ETH: Ethereum found support at $2,490 after a high-volume selloff broke key levels, with the price consolidating in a tight range amid geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty, signaling potential for a breakout if resistance at $2,510 is cleared.
• Gold: Gold hovered near $3,366 on Thursday, little changed as escalating geopolitical tensions offset pressure from the Fed’s hawkish stance, while platinum retreated after hitting a near 10-year high; U.S. markets remained closed for Juneteenth.
• Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 opened 0.24% higher Friday as Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose ahead of China’s loan prime rate decision and amid ongoing Israel-Iran tensions.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

Bitcoin has surged to $104,300, confirming the uptrend and reinforcing the bullish outlook that many analysts projected for 2025. This move places BTC deep into range-highs territory, with the next major challenge now clearly in sight: the all-time high at $109,000. The market’s strength comes on the back of strong technical performance and increasingly optimistic sentiment, as BTC continues to lead the crypto rally and altcoins follow suit.

Related Reading

On-chain data from CryptoQuant adds further weight to the bullish narrative. One standout metric highlights the growing confidence among large holders: the absolute difference between the Realized Price of new whales and old whales now stands at $59.7K. Specifically, new whales have entered the market at an average price of $91.9K, while old whales’ basis remains at $32.2K. This translates to a 185% relative spread to the long-term holder (LTH) basis—a massive divergence.

This wide gap signals that a new wave of high-conviction buyers is entering the market at significantly elevated prices. Unlike the cautious whale accumulation during previous cycle lows, this phase reflects strong belief in continued upside, even at premium levels. It’s a clear sign that institutional FOMO may be kicking in.

Bitcoin Faces Resistance At $104K As Whale Activity Signals Growing FOMO

Bitcoin is currently encountering resistance around the $104,000 mark—a level that may take time to break as it represents a critical barrier before entering price discovery above the all-time high near $109,000. The recent rally has shown remarkable strength, but as BTC consolidates just below its ATH, some selling pressure is expected.  A successful breakout could lead to a swift surge beyond $109K; however, failure to do so may result in short-term consolidation or retracement.

Top analyst Axel Adler shared key on-chain insights on X that highlight the evolving psychology of Bitcoin’s largest holders. According to Adler, the absolute difference between the Realized Price of new whales ($91.9K) and old whales ($32.2K) is $59.7K, representing a 185% relative spread to the long-term holder (LTH) basis. This sharp divergence reveals that new “whales” are entering the market at nearly three times the price of early entrants.

In comparison, the same spread in November 2022 was only 62%, indicating more cautious accumulation near the market bottom. The current surge to 185% reflects rising confidence and FOMO, with large buyers willing to accumulate even at elevated prices. For context, during the 2021 cycle peak at $63K, the spread widened to 437%.

Related Reading

This trend suggests that the market is entering a more aggressive accumulation phase, where belief in higher prices is driving demand despite the premium. If bulls manage to absorb the resistance around $104K, it could mark the start of a parabolic move—fueled not just by momentum, but by conviction from both retail and institutional players betting on a new Bitcoin all-time high.

BTC Price Analysis: Key Levels To Watch

Bitcoin is trading around $103,000 after reaching a high of $104,300 earlier today. The 4-hour chart shows BTC facing resistance at the $103,600 level, which aligns with a key supply zone from late December 2024 and early January 2025. This area acted as a previous rejection point during the last major rally and is now being tested again as potential resistance.

BTC’s recent surge from the $87K–$90K consolidation zone has been aggressive, breaking above both the 200 EMA and 200 SMA (currently at $91,806 and $89,400, respectively) with strong volume. This confirms bullish strength and trend continuation, suggesting that buyers are still in control. However, the current range between $103K and $104K is historically significant, and bulls may need to absorb selling pressure before attempting a move toward the all-time high near $109K.

Related Reading

If BTC consolidates above $100K and holds this level as new support, it would strengthen the case for continued upside. On the flip side, failure to break above $103,600 cleanly could lead to a short-term pullback. Market structure remains bullish overall, but this resistance zone will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin enters price discovery or pauses for accumulation.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView