Delayed – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Sun, 10 Aug 2025 12:01:04 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.7 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Delayed – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 Union Jack Oil Turns to Bitcoin Mining at Delayed UK Gas Site https://earlybirdsinvest.com/union-jack-oil-turns-to-bitcoin-mining-at-delayed-uk-gas-site/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/union-jack-oil-turns-to-bitcoin-mining-at-delayed-uk-gas-site/#respond Sun, 10 Aug 2025 12:01:04 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/union-jack-oil-turns-to-bitcoin-mining-at-delayed-uk-gas-site/

A UK-based energy company listed on the stock exchange, Union Jack Oil, is planning to turn natural gas at its West Newton site into power for Bitcoin mining.

According to an August 7 report, Union Jack Oil is working with Rathlin Energy, the site operator, and 360 Energy, a company from Texas that helps turn unused or wasted gas into electricity.

They have signed a non-binding letter of intent to use 360’s equipment, which is designed for field use and can support data centers like those used for mining Bitcoin
BTC


$117,439.03

.

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The West Newton project became part of Union Jack Oil’s portfolio in 2019 after Rathlin Energy found gas there. Later drilling confirmed it as one of the biggest onshore gas finds in the country. Despite its potential, the project has faced repeated delays due to planning issues and concerns surrounding fossil fuel developments.

Union Jack Oil’s Executive Chairman, David Bramhill, said, “Regulatory uncertainty has unduly hampered progress”. He also stated that companies like Union Jack Oil have had to look for new ways to keep moving forward.

According to Bramhill, the plan to mine Bitcoin could help bring in steady returns while the company waits for the full-scale project to get back on track. If the mining effort proves successful, Union Jack Oil might even keep some of the Bitcoin it mines as part of its financial strategy.

France’s Rassemblement National (RN) party recently announced plans to mine Bitcoin using surplus power from the country’s nuclear plants. What did Marine Le Pen say about it? Read the full story.


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Solana ETF got delayed… https://earlybirdsinvest.com/solana-etf-got-delayed/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/solana-etf-got-delayed/#respond Wed, 18 Jun 2025 19:25:46 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/solana-etf-got-delayed/

Good evening, folks.

In today’s top stories: two headline-worthy updates just dropped on topics we’ve been tracking.

Our team has been refreshing X every 12 seconds monitoring the situation, and we’re here to bring you the latest developments – live, unfiltered, and straight into your inbox.

South Park news

1/ GENIUS Act

The GENIUS Act – aka the bill that wants to make stablecoin regulations clearer – passed the Senate with a 68-30 vote.

(If you’re wondering what this bill actually does or why some people don’t f*ck with it – we explained it all here.)

So, what happens now?

It heads over to the House of Representatives. From here, they can:

👉 Vote on the GENIUS Act as-is;

👉 Push their own stablecoin bill, the STABLE Act, which is stricter and treats stablecoin issuers like banks;

👉 Combine the two into a new draft.

Either way, both chambers need to agree on something before it lands on Trump’s desk, who, btw, wants it signed before Congress goes on break in August.

2/ Altcoin ETFs

Last week, we talked about how we might be heading into an altcoin ETF summer.

Now there’s a new update on that:

The SEC opened public comments on two proposed crypto ETFs from Franklin Templeton – one for XRP, one for Solana.

This pushes the decision deadline by 35 days, so we’re looking at late July now.

Wait, the SEC delayed it?? Is that bad?

Don’t worry, it’s not. Kind of the opposite.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said delays like this are normal.

What really matters is that the SEC is actually reviewing the filings, not ignoring them. That’s a win.

And you know what’s an even bigger win? The SEC is also reviewing a Solana staking ETF.

That matters because right now, if you want to earn yield from staking something like Solana or Ethereum, you have to jump through a bunch of hoops: manage your own wallet, lock up your assets, choose a validator, etc.

A staking ETF would change that. It would let regular investors earn staking rewards just by holding a normal ETFno wallets, no staking setup, no technical knowledge needed.

That would open up a new stream of demand for these assets.

A whole new world Aladdin

But it’s not simple. There are some big hurdles:

  • Custody: the fund has to stake user assets securely without violating SEC rules;

  • Legality: the SEC has previously suggested that offering staking services might count as selling unregistered securities;

  • Technical risks: validators can fail, slashing can happen, and protocols can update in ways that mess with staking mechanics.

So, the fact that the SEC is even talking about this – instead of rejecting it outright – is a strong sign of progress.

Same goes for the Franklin ETFs. Delays are annoying, sure, but the engagement is a green flag.

Kid thumbs up

And that, dear viewers, wraps tonight’s broadcast. Your inbox is officially up to speed.

This has been your favorite correspondent, reporting live from the frontlines of crypto.

Stay informed and mildly skeptical.

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Coinbase delayed revealing data breach that may cost up to $400M, drops third-party vendor https://earlybirdsinvest.com/coinbase-delayed-revealing-data-breach-that-may-cost-up-to-400m-drops-third-party-vendor/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/coinbase-delayed-revealing-data-breach-that-may-cost-up-to-400m-drops-third-party-vendor/#respond Tue, 03 Jun 2025 08:53:45 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/coinbase-delayed-revealing-data-breach-that-may-cost-up-to-400m-drops-third-party-vendor/

Secret knowledge, sudden split: the crypto exchange faces mounting legal and regulatory heat for a four-month silence over a breach affecting at least 69,000 customers.

Coinbase was alerted as early as January 2025 that hackers had siphoned tens of thousands of customer records from one of its overseas support vendors, but the exchange waited until 14 May to notify regulators and users, according to internal emails reviewed by Reuters and interviews with three people briefed on the incident.

The revelation comes as Coinbase abruptly terminated its relationship with TaskUs, the Texas-based outsourcing firm whose India call centre staff were allegedly bribed to leak screenshots and KYC files. At least 69,461 customers’ names, addresses, partial Social Security numbers, and ticket histories were exposed. Coinbase has warned investors that the breach could cost $180 million to $400 million in remediation and potential claims.

Coinbase said it discovered evidence of contractor misconduct, moved quickly to cut access, and is enhancing controls across all third-party vendors.

TaskUs confirmed it fired more than 200 employees in Indore after Coinbase raised alarms in January, but it insisted it “immediately escalated” the issue to its client. A TaskUs spokesperson said the company is “cooperating with law enforcement agencies in India and the United States.”

A four-month disclosure gap

Under the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s new cyber-incident rule, publicly traded companies must file an 8-K within four business days of determining an incident is material. Coinbase’s May filing noted “prior months” of unauthorised activity but did not specify the January alert.

Such inaction could be considered to be a textbook case of material non-compliance. The SEC may ask for confirmation as to why the clock didn’t start in January.

A securities-fraud class action filed Monday in the Eastern District of Pennsylvania alleges Coinbase “withheld adverse information” that would have moved its share price. A separate negligence suit targets TaskUs in Manhattan federal court on behalf of affected users.

Court filings describe a small criminal ring that paid support agents to photograph Coinbase’s screens with personal identifiers visible. By March, the scheme had widened, with stolen credentials sold on Telegram channels tied to “pig-butchering” crypto scams. On 11 May, the hackers, emboldened by their haul, emailed Coinbase demanding $20 million in exchange for deleting the data.

Coinbase refused, instead offering a $20 million bounty for information leading to arrests.

Date Event
Dec 2024 Earliest unauthorized access allegedly begins (court filings)
Jan 2025 TaskUs agent in Indore caught photographing Coinbase data; Coinbase alerted the same day; TaskUs fires >200 staff
Mar 2025 Breach spreads internally; plaintiffs say nearly 100k records compromised
11 May 2025 Hackers email Coinbase demanding $20 M ransom
14 May 2025 Coinbase files Form 8-K, admits “prior months” contractor abuse
15 May 2025 Public blog post + $20 M bounty; users learn of breach
21 May 2025 Maine AG notice lists 69,461 victims
28 May 2025 Class action against TaskUs (S.D.N.Y.)
2 Jun 2025 Reuters exposes Coinbase’s earlier knowledge; company severs TaskUs ties
3 Jun 2025 Stock volatility and regulatory scrutiny mount

Why TaskUs matters

TaskUs, founded in 2008 and now valued at around $1.5 billion, counts Meta and DoorDash among its clients. Crypto exchanges like Coinbase have leaned on the firm to provide 24/7 customer support at a lower cost than U.S. hires through its 61,400 full-time staff. Security consultants warn that offshoring sensitive identity documents to low-wage environments creates the perfect storm for insider bribery.

Human-layer attacks are increasingly outpacing technical exploits, as buying an underpaid agent is far cheaper than breaking robust encryption.

The breach occurs as Coinbase and other crypto stakeholders wage a public campaign for lighter U.S. crypto rules. Rival exchanges Kraken and Gemini, who also use business-process outsourcing shops, will now rush to audit their own vendor controls, according to people familiar with those reviews.

Meanwhile, affected Coinbase customers report continued phishing attempts and SIM-swap attacks. The company has offered two years of identity-theft monitoring but has not committed to reimbursing any downstream crypto losses.

What’s next

  • Regulatory scrutiny – The SEC and Federal Trade Commission can assess potential disclosure-timing violations.
  • Discovery trove – Plaintiffs will seek January-dated board minutes that could show executives debated, then deferred, disclosure.
  • Vendor shake-up – Industry analysts expect fintechs to diversify away from single-provider support models and adopt screen-capture-blocking tools.

For Coinbase, the incident threatens balance-sheet costs and its narrative as the most compliant brand in crypto. Trust is the only hard currency an exchange has. Losing it, even for four months, can be fatal.

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Chicago Fed President Raises Stagflation Concerns, Says Interest Rate Decision Likely To Be Delayed Amid Tariff Uncertainty https://earlybirdsinvest.com/chicago-fed-president-raises-stagflation-concerns-says-interest-rate-decision-likely-to-be-delayed-amid-tariff-uncertainty/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/chicago-fed-president-raises-stagflation-concerns-says-interest-rate-decision-likely-to-be-delayed-amid-tariff-uncertainty/#respond Sun, 25 May 2025 01:44:11 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/chicago-fed-president-raises-stagflation-concerns-says-interest-rate-decision-likely-to-be-delayed-amid-tariff-uncertainty/

The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago says the Fed might have to delay interest rate decisions amid President Donald Trump’s volatile tariff policies.

Chicago Fed leader Austan Goolsbee warns in a new interview with CNBC that Trump’s policy choices could also lead to an unfavorable economic environment known as stagflation, which is dominated by stagnant economic growth, high inflation and high unemployment.

“In the short run, we have to just wait for the dust to come out of the air… Everything’s always on the table, but I feel like the bar, for me, is a little higher for action in any direction while we’re waiting to get some clarity.

And then, over the longer run, if they’re putting in place tariffs that have a stagflationary impact, which is to say a slowed-down output by raising the cost of production, while also raising prices, then that’s the central bank’s worst situation.” 

Goolsbee says the Chicago Fed has been in conversations with business owners in their districts who say they’re hoping for policy consistency.

“The CEO of a construction company said, for them, they’re now in a put-your-pencils-down moment where they just have to wait. If every week or every month or every day, there’s going to be a new major announcement, they just can’t take action until some of those things are resolved.” 

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AUSTRAC: Cointree Fined $75,000 for Delayed Reports on Suspected Crypto Crime https://earlybirdsinvest.com/austrac-cointree-fined-75000-for-delayed-reports-on-suspected-crypto-crime/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/austrac-cointree-fined-75000-for-delayed-reports-on-suspected-crypto-crime/#respond Sat, 17 May 2025 01:27:35 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/austrac-cointree-fined-75000-for-delayed-reports-on-suspected-crypto-crime/

Cointree, a crypto exchange based in Melbourne, has been ordered to pay a $75,120 fine after failing to send certain reports to Australia’s financial watchdog on time.

The reports, known as suspicious matter reports (SMRs), are required when a company suspects that a transaction may involve illegal activity, including money laundering or terrorism financing.

The fine was issued by AUSTRAC, the agency that monitors financial crime in Australia. According to a statement released on May 15, Cointree told the agency it had missed several deadlines for submitting these reports, which led to the enforcement action.

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AUSTRAC explained that reporting delays like these can make it harder for law enforcement to respond quickly to possible threats. SMRs must be submitted no later than three business days after a company first notices possible money laundering. If the concern relates to terrorism financing, the deadline is just 24 hours.

Brendan Thomas, head of AUSTRAC, said in the announcement:

We need to action these reports as soon as possible, which is why the timeframes are put in place – they allow us to move with pace and alert our partners to suspected criminal conduct.

Despite the violation, AUSTRAC said Cointree had fully cooperated with the investigation and is making improvements to its internal systems to help avoid future mistakes. According to Thomas, the exchange is “taking proactive steps to remediate its systems and controls”.

Meanwhile, on May 9, German authorities shut down the crypto exchange eXch and seized approximately $38 million in digital assets. What happened? Read the full story.

Having completed a Master’s degree in Economics, Politics, and Cultures of the East Asia region, Aaron has written scientific papers analyzing the differences between Western and Collective forms of capitalism in the post-World War II era.
With close to a decade of experience in the FinTech industry, Aaron understands all of the biggest issues and struggles that crypto enthusiasts face. He’s a passionate analyst who is concerned with data-driven and fact-based content, as well as that which speaks to both Web3 natives and industry newcomers.
Aaron is the go-to person for everything and anything related to digital currencies. With a huge passion for blockchain & Web3 education, Aaron strives to transform the space as we know it, and make it more approachable to complete beginners.
Aaron has been quoted by multiple established outlets, and is a published author himself. Even during his free time, he enjoys researching the market trends, and looking for the next supernova.


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U.S. stablecoin regulation could be delayed as pro-crypto Democrats pull support https://earlybirdsinvest.com/u-s-stablecoin-regulation-could-be-delayed-as-pro-crypto-democrats-pull-support/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/u-s-stablecoin-regulation-could-be-delayed-as-pro-crypto-democrats-pull-support/#respond Sun, 04 May 2025 20:39:02 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/u-s-stablecoin-regulation-could-be-delayed-as-pro-crypto-democrats-pull-support/

A group of nine Democratic Senators announced that they will withdraw their support for the landmark U.S. stablecoin legislation unless changes are made to the bill.

In a joint statement issued on May 3, the Senators noted that there are several issues with the current version of the stablecoin bill known as the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act. The Senators noted:

“While we are eager to continue working with our colleagues to address these issues, we would be unable to vote for cloture should the current version of the bill come to the floor.”

The statement was signed by Senators Raphael Warnock, Catherine Cortez Masto, Ben Ray Luján, John Hickenlooper, and Adam Schiff. Surprisingly, Senators Ruben Gallego, Mark Warner, Lisa Blunt Rochester, and Andy Kim, all of whom supported the bill when it passed the Senate Banking Committee in March, were also among the signatories.

It is worth noting, however, that the two Senate Democrats co-sponsoring the GENIUS Act alongside lead sponsor Republican Senator Bill Hagerty — Kirsten Gillibrand and Angela Alsobrooks — did not sign the statement.

Senate Democrats want tighter regulations under the GENIUS Act

In their statement, the Senate Democrats noted that it is “critical for Congress to work in a bipartisan fashion” to establish clear rules and guidelines for stablecoins. Absence of such regulations leaves consumers “unprotected and vulnerable,” they stated.

However, they are determined to withhold support for the bill unless revisions are made. They added:

“We have approached this process constructively and with an open mind, with the understanding that additional improvements to the bill would be made.”

The Senate Democrats believe that the GENUIS Act needs “stronger provisions on anti-money laundering, foreign issuers, national security, preserving the safety and soundness of our financial system, and accountability for those who don’t meet the act’s requirements.”

It is worth noting that these nine Senate Democrats are not the only ones opposed to the bill. Senator Elizabeth Warren, one of the bill’s staunchest critics, warned that the bill could “green-light big-tech companies and other conglomerates to issue their own stablecoins.”

In a letter last month, a group of 20 community banking organizations also voiced their objections, arguing that the bill could displace traditional deposits and expose the financial system to new vulnerabilities.

All about the GENIUS Act

Hagerty, who authored the GENIUS Act, introduced the bill on Feb. 4, 2025. The bill aims to provide a regulatory framework for U.S. payment stablecoins. The passage of the GENIUS Act, therefore, will be the first step towards establishing comprehensive crypto regulation in the U.S.

Under the proposed GENIUS bill, stablecoin issuers will have to ensure that each issued token is backed 1:1 by U.S. Dollars, insured bank deposits, or short-term Treasury bills. Stablecoin issuers will also be able to choose between federal oversight under the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and state-level supervision.

The Senate Banking Committee passed the GENIUS Act in March with an 18-6 vote. Since then, Republicans have made changes to the bill, hoping to win over Democrats, according to a report by Politico. In fact, many of the changes pertained to the issues raised by the Senate Democrats in their statement on Saturday.

Republicans were assured of bipartisan support for the bill, so much so that Senate Majority Leader John Thune formally moved to expedite the consideration of the bill earlier this week. Senate Republicans were hoping to push the GENIUS Act for a floor vote by the end of May.

According to Politico, the first procedural vote for the bill is expected as soon as next week. However, the statement by the Senate Democrats is likely to put a kink in the Republicans’ plan, while giving them more leverage to extract more concessions.

The bill requires the support of at least seven Democrats to pass the Senate.

Sen. Hagerty responds to the Democrats’ statement

Responding to the statement issued by the Senate Democrats, Hagerty stated that it is time the U.S. advances legislation that will ensure its leadership in the digital asset space and protect the U.S. Dollar “for centuries to come.” He added:

“We have a choice here. Move forward and make any remaining changes needed in a bipartisan way, or show that digital asset and crypto legislation remains a solely Republican issue.”

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UK's Delayed Regulation Hurts Plan to Be Global Crypto Hub, Executives Say: CNBC https://earlybirdsinvest.com/uks-delayed-regulation-hurts-plan-to-be-global-crypto-hub-executives-say-cnbc/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/uks-delayed-regulation-hurts-plan-to-be-global-crypto-hub-executives-say-cnbc/#respond Thu, 01 May 2025 14:44:37 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/uks-delayed-regulation-hurts-plan-to-be-global-crypto-hub-executives-say-cnbc/

The U.K. needs to work harder at becoming a global center for the crypto industry to avoid falling behind countries like the U.S., industry executives told CNBC.

The country has been saying it wants to be a crypto hub since 2022, before the current Labour government was elected, yet only this week did it start seeking comments on draft legislation for the industry.

The European Union, meanwhile, has already implemented its Markets in Crypto Assets legislation (MiCA), which provides a uniform regime across the bloc, and the new U.S. administration of President Donald Trump is promoting the industry and relaxing regulation.

“If I look at the speed of innovation, I do feel that the U.S. is ahead — although they have their own challenges. But look at Singapore, Hong Kong — again, you see much more rapid innovation,” Jaidev Janardana, the CEO of digital bank Zopa, told CNBC. “I think we are still ahead of the EU, but we can’t remain complacent with that.”

Trump, for his part, has been urging departments to make crypto-friendly policies, and stablecoin legislation is working its way through the Senate. The stablecoin sector could surge 10-fold to reach $2 trillion within three years following the passage of the legislation, Standard Chartered has forecast.

“Other jurisdictions have started to seize the opportunity,” said Cassie Craddock, the managing director for U.K. and Europe at blockchain firm Ripple, in an interview with CNBC.

Mark Fairless, CEO of payments infrastructure firm ClearBank, said his business has been looking to develop its own stablecoin and has been held back by the lack of regulatory clarity.

Stablecoins are “part of our medium-term, longer-term strategy,” Fairless told CNBC. “We see ourselves well set up for that.” However, he added, a ClearBank stablecoin will be possible only once there’s clarity from U.K. regulators including the Bank of England.

Still, the country hasn’t entirely missed the bus.

“The U.K. is still that great place to set up. We have all the ingredients there, because we’ve got the ecosystem, we do have this talent setting up new businesses,” Lisa Jacobs, CEO of business lending platform Funding Circle, said. “But it needs to continue. We can’t rest on our laurels.”

“I think the U.K. will get it right — but there is a risk if you get it wrong that you drive innovation to other markets,” Keith Grose, Coinbase’s U.K. head, told CNBC.

Read more: The UK Has Created Crypto Banking Problems

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The delayed Siri Apple Intelligence features are now coming ‘in the fall’ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/the-delayed-siri-apple-intelligence-features-are-now-coming-in-the-fall/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/the-delayed-siri-apple-intelligence-features-are-now-coming-in-the-fall/#respond Fri, 11 Apr 2025 20:52:49 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/the-delayed-siri-apple-intelligence-features-are-now-coming-in-the-fall/

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Next Bitcoin Peak Delayed To Late 2026, Business Cycle Expert Warns https://earlybirdsinvest.com/next-bitcoin-peak-delayed-to-late-2026-business-cycle-expert-warns/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/next-bitcoin-peak-delayed-to-late-2026-business-cycle-expert-warns/#respond Wed, 09 Apr 2025 05:45:41 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/next-bitcoin-peak-delayed-to-late-2026-business-cycle-expert-warns/

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In a thread on X, business cycle analyst Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets) explains where the global economy currently stands and what that means for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Describing what he terms a “short and shallow” full business cycle that started in 2023, faded in 2024, and bottomed out in early 2025, Tomas believes this fleeting cycle was masked in part by a weak Chinese economy and a rapidly strengthening dollar.

He explains, “The general gist of the theory was that we saw an abnormal, ‘short and shallow’ full business cycle over recent years that suppressed traditional PMI measures both in the US and globally.”

According to Tomas, his analysis relies on four real-time measures of the global economy, which he tracked in inverted trade-weighted dollar index, Baltic Dry Index, 10-year Chinese Government bond yields, and the copper/gold ratio. By converting these individual data points into rolling yearly z-scores, he created an “equal-weighted composite z-score” he calls the Global Economy Index (GEI).

He notes, “You can see clearly here that the GEI was underwhelming to the upside in 2023 and 2024 (didn’t reach the ‘business cycle peaking zone’). And then fell to levels typically correlated with the end of a business cycle in late 2024/early 2025 (‘business cycle troughing zone’).”

Global Economy Index
Global Economy Index | Source: X @TomasOnMarkets

This composite measure appeared to lead US Manufacturing PMI data prior to the disruptive events of 2020, and Tomas highlights that relationship by shifting the GEI forward by six months. He observes a break in the pattern around the 2020 pandemic and the following large-scale central bank interventions, yet still sees the possibility that GEI’s recent rebound indicates a new “fresh” business cycle taking hold, potentially peaking around late 2026 or 2027. “Based on historical precedent,” he writes, “this new business cycle could reasonably be expected to peak around late 2026/2027.”

He also addresses the interplay between GEI, equities, and PMIs, remarking that the stock market usually leads business survey measures but tends to lag the GEI. “If we peel back the layers of the onion, we find the stock market generally leads PMI measures but generally lags the GEI, so it lives somewhere in the middle, most of the time,” he says. He points out that the S&P 500 recently slipped into negative year-over-year territory, which he sees as typical of end-of-cycle price behavior. “The S&P 500 has now hit what would historically be an acceptable ‘end of business cycle bottoming level.’”

The Implications For Bitcoin

Bitcoin, however, remains the wildcard. Tomas acknowledges that the leading-lag relationship of the GEI, stock market, and PMIs might normally apply to most risk assets, yet this time around, Bitcoin appears to be deviating from its usual volatility in relation to the macro environment. “The piece of the jigsaw that doesn’t seem to fit at all (by historical precedent) is Bitcoin,” he writes.

He acknowledges that it has so far resisted typical “end of business cycle” drawdowns, and he speculates on whether “Bitcoin has just grown up and become less volatile and less sensitive to business cycle swings — potentially due to ETFs and higher institutional interest.” Yet he also entertains the possibility that Bitcoin might simply be lagging the stock market. Regardless, “if Bitcoin continues its historical relationship with the business cycle,” Tomas warns, “this would probably obliterate the ‘four year halving cycle’ theory for Bitcoin price action.”

Tomas concludes by cautioning that if the global economy index fails to maintain its recent bounce and instead rolls over to a new low, the outlook could turn more bearish, especially if so-called tariff headwinds worsen. He speculates that part of the rebound seen in copper/gold and shipping rates in early 2025 may have been frontloaded by tariff announcements, hinting that the recovery in those metrics might not be as robust as it appears on the surface.

Still, the key takeaway from his perspective is that equities and the broader business cycle appear to be in late-stage territory, and if his assessment holds, a new cycle could begin soon — one that runs long enough to postpone any meaningful Bitcoin peak until late 2026 or even 2027, calling into question any assumptions about the enduring validity of Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle.

“Another point to note is that the GEI is currently signaling the start of a new business cycle, which could reasonably be expected to peak in late 2026/2027. If Bitcoin continues its historical relationship with the business cycle, this would probably obliterate the ‘four year halving cycle’ theory for Bitcoin price action,” Tomas concludes.

At press time, BTC traded at $79,428.

Bitcoin price
BTC hovers below $80,000, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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More Trouble For Do Kwon? Hearing Delayed As New Piles Of Evidence Surface https://earlybirdsinvest.com/more-trouble-for-do-kwon-hearing-delayed-as-new-piles-of-evidence-surface/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/more-trouble-for-do-kwon-hearing-delayed-as-new-piles-of-evidence-surface/#respond Wed, 05 Mar 2025 11:12:04 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/more-trouble-for-do-kwon-hearing-delayed-as-new-piles-of-evidence-surface/

The legal troubles of Do Kwon are far from over. A US federal judge has postponed his court hearing, originally set for March 6, after prosecutors uncovered a massive amount of new evidence.

With four terabytes of additional data now in play, the case against the Terraform Labs co-founder is becoming even more complex.

Massive Data Dump Forces Delay

Prosecutors have handed over 600 gigabytes of data to Kwon’s defense team so far. This includes materials from his phones, emails, and other electronic accounts. But now, with four terabytes of new evidence to examine, both sides need more time to prepare.

The court has pushed the hearing date to April 10 to allow prosecutors to sort through the files and the defense to review what could be critical information. The judge’s decision reflects the size of the data and its potential impact on the case.

Key Deadlines Before Do Kwon Trial

This delay has not changed the date of the trial—January 26, 2026. Both sides have until July 1 to submit pretrial motions; the deadline for reply is August 11. These filings most certainly will affect the arguments put up in court and during the trial.

After the prosecutors stated in a letter dated February 27 that they expected to produce an extra 4 gigabytes of discovery to the defense by the end of next week, Judge Paul Engelmayer delayed a hearing scheduled for March 6 to April 10 in an order dated March 3.

Excerpt from Judge Paul Engelmayer’s March 3 order that adjourned the next hearing to April 10. Source: CourtListener

After January 2025 pleading not guilty to nine felony fraud charges, Kwon enters a protracted legal fight. As the case develops, his defense team will work to refute the evidence and assertions of the prosecution.

The Collapse Of Terra And Kwon’s Arrest

Terraform Labs, the company Kwon co-founded, collapsed in May 2022. The failure of its algorithmic stablecoin, TerraClassicUSD (USTC), wiped out $60 billion in market value. The fallout led to widespread losses, investigations, and lawsuits.

BTCUSD trading at $88,335 on the daily chart: TradingView.com

After the collapse, Kwon moved between Singapore and Dubai before being arrested in Montenegro in March 2023 for using a fake passport. He served a four-month sentence there before being extradited to the US in December 2024.

What’s Next For Do Kwon?

With the case growing more complicated, Kwon’s future remains uncertain. The addition of four terabytes of evidence raises new questions about the strength of the prosecution’s case. If this material contains damning information, it could be bad news for Kwon.

For now, all eyes are on the upcoming hearing in April. The extra time may help both sides prepare, but it also signals that the legal battle over Terraform Labs is far from finished.

Featured image from Gemini Imagen, chart from TradingView

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