decline – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Sun, 07 Sep 2025 16:34:47 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.11 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 decline – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 Uniswap Reclaims Crown Amid DEX Market Volatility and PancakeSwap Decline https://earlybirdsinvest.com/uniswap-reclaims-crown-amid-dex-market-volatility-and-pancakeswap-decline/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/uniswap-reclaims-crown-amid-dex-market-volatility-and-pancakeswap-decline/#respond Sun, 07 Sep 2025 16:34:46 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/uniswap-reclaims-crown-amid-dex-market-volatility-and-pancakeswap-decline/

After a turbulent few months in the decentralized exchange (DEX) space, Uniswap has managed to reclaim its position as the market leader in what appears to be a strong comeback in August 2025.

The platform recorded a trading volume of $111.8 billion, up 28.3% month-on-month, representing the second time this year it has surpassed the $100 billion mark.

Uniswap Strikes Back

According to the latest report shared by CoinGecko, this resurgence allowed Uniswap to recover from its June low, when its market share had fallen to 19.4%, overtaken by PancakeSwap amid the latter’s surge driven by the Binance Alpha 2.0 launch. The rewards program boosted PancakeSwap’s activity, which helped it achieve record daily trading volumes of around $5 billion and a peak market share of 64.5% in June.

However, August told a different story as PancakeSwap’s trading volume plummeted to $92.0 billion. This was a sharp 44.7% decline from July, which reduced its market share to 29.5% and allowed Uniswap to retake the top spot.

Aerodrome secured its position as the third-largest DEX in August while capturing 7.4% market share. It recorded almost $23 billion in trading volume, which marks a 28% month-on-month increase. The remaining top 10 decentralized exchanges collectively accounted for 27.3% of the market.

Meanwhile, the DEX ecosystem continues to evolve rapidly, with newcomers like Hyperliquid making notable gains. Hyperliquid’s August volume surged 129.3% month-on-month to $21.4 billion, pushing its market share to 6.9% and elevating it to the fourth-largest DEX. In the process, it surpassed several Solana-based platforms.

While still far behind Uniswap and PancakeSwap, Hyperliquid’s rise evidences the increasingly competitive nature of the DEX sector.

UNI’s Volatile Trajectory

Uniswap strengthened its market dominance, but the same can’t be said for its governance token, UNI, which experienced significant volatility over the past month, forming a local top above $12 in mid-August before suffering back-to-back corrections.

The token showed strong upward momentum through August but has faced selling pressure in recent weeks, with the price consolidating in the $9-10 range through early September.

Despite the turbulence, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan noted that UNI at $6 billion is modest by global standards, and compared it to Storebrand, which happens to be a mid-sized Norwegian insurance firm. He added that despite its DeFi prominence, its valuation remains relatively small in the broader financial landscape.

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Shiba Inu Sees 40% Spike in Whale Activity, Coinbase XRP Holdings Continue to Decline, 100% Ethereum Holders in Profit — Crypto News Digest https://earlybirdsinvest.com/shiba-inu-sees-40-spike-in-whale-activity-coinbase-xrp-holdings-continue-to-decline-100-ethereum-holders-in-profit-crypto-news-digest/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/shiba-inu-sees-40-spike-in-whale-activity-coinbase-xrp-holdings-continue-to-decline-100-ethereum-holders-in-profit-crypto-news-digest/#respond Fri, 15 Aug 2025 23:00:03 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/shiba-inu-sees-40-spike-in-whale-activity-coinbase-xrp-holdings-continue-to-decline-100-ethereum-holders-in-profit-crypto-news-digest/

SHIB whale activity surges

Shiba Inu (SHIB) witnesses explosive 40% spike in overnight whale activity.

  • Surge in transfer. Aug. 12–13 saw 351.6 billion SHIB moved from large wallets — up 40% from the prior day’s 240.13 billion.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) just experienced one of its busiest nights in weeks, with major holders transferring 40% more tokens than the previous day, as per IntoTheBlock. From Aug. 12 to 13, the amount of SHIB flowing out of large wallets increased from 240.13 billion to 351.6 billion, putting a massive portion of the supply in motion in less than 24 hours. 

Large outflows can indicate two different things: coins being sent to exchanges for sale or coins being sent from exchanges to private storage. Interestingly, SHIB’s price did not sink when the outflows spiked.  

  • Price action. Stayed near $0.000014 despite heavy flows.

Instead, it held steady at around $0.000014, leaning more toward the idea that whales are parking tokens in cold wallets rather than selling them on the market. 

Over the same period, SHIB’s chart showed a push toward $0.00001425, a dip to approximately $0.00001360 and then a slow climb back to $0.0000138. There was no big sell-off or panic candles – just a back-and-forth range that suggests buyers were ready to take whatever supply was available. 

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ETH holders in full profit

Ethereum has no single holder in losses at moment amid shift to new ATH. 

  • 98.81% in profit. 148.2 million ETH ($704.29B) bought below current price.

In a historic development, Ethereum (ETH), the leading altcoin, is bullish, with all of its holders in profit. In the last 24 hours, activities in the Ethereum ecosystem have been on an upward trajectory in terms of price and volume outlook. 

According to IntoTheBlock data, a total of 148.2 million ETH valued at $704.29 billion are “In the Money.” This reflects 98.81% of Ethereum holders. This implies that these investors bought the asset at a price lower than the current market price. 

  • Low sell pressure. Holders likely waiting for a new ATH.

Interestingly, no holder is “Out of the Money.” Meanwhile, only 1.19% of holders are “At the Money.” These holders account for 1.79 million ETH worth $8.52 billion. These investors bought Ethereum at around $4,752. 

The implication of this for the leading altcoin is that there is minimal sell pressure on holders. With all investors in profit, they are likely to hold off selling their asset with anticipation of a new all-time high (ATH). 

  • Price target. Market watching for $5K breakout.

The market had been agitated when a major Ethereum ICO whale went for profit in a fresh batch of sales less than 48 hours ago. However, the current development suggests that sell pressure has dropped. 

Surprisingly, despite the bullish outlook of Ethereum, the asset remains about 3% away from flipping its ATH of $4,891.70 set about four years ago. This has sparked concern among some market participants, who were anticipating the ETH price to hit $5,000.

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Coinbase XRP reserves down 57.4% since June

Major US exchange Coinbase slashes XRP holdings by 57.4% as transfers accelerate.

  • Reserve decline. XRP holdings spread across 52 cold wallets.

Coinbase’s XRP reserves have been dropping for months, and new on-chain data show the decline has hit 57.4% since early June. The exchange used to hold almost a billion XRP across 52 cold wallets, but now it is down to about half that, with more big transfers this week. 

Right now, 10 wallets still hold about 26.8 million XRP each, and another 42 wallets hold about 16.8 million XRP. One of the latest moves saw 16.69 million XRP – worth about $54.83 million – moved from Coinbase Cold Wallet 155 to Coinbase Cold Wallet 10. It was an internal transfer. 

  • Possible destinations. Bitstamp, BitGo, Ripple’s ODL network; or internal reserve reorganization.

The destination of these coins is unclear. Analysts believe the transfers are feeding new subwallets tied to Bitstamp, BitGo and Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity network. Others think Coinbase is reorganizing reserves to position itself for usage or price changes. 

There is no sign of disorder or panic selling in the way these transfers are being handled. The amounts and timing suggest that there was a lot of planning involved, with an emphasis on where assets are located so they can be accessed efficiently. 

  • Usage trend. Coinbase’s influence over large XRP flows may shrink.

Coinbase is not holding as much XRP as it used to, and that is because more and more people are interested in using the token for payments and cross-border transactions.  If this trend keeps up, Coinbase might not have as much control over the big XRP flows, and more of the asset might be moving through other exchanges and custodial channels.

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Short-term holders drove Bitcoin price decline but market remains profitable https://earlybirdsinvest.com/short-term-holders-drove-bitcoin-price-decline-but-market-remains-profitable/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/short-term-holders-drove-bitcoin-price-decline-but-market-remains-profitable/#respond Fri, 01 Aug 2025 18:15:13 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/short-term-holders-drove-bitcoin-price-decline-but-market-remains-profitable/

Bitcoin started August on a bearish note, but the downturn appears to have stemmed from spot market activity rather than a wave of forced liquidations in derivatives markets.

Over the past 24 hours, the flagship digital asset dropped by more than 3% to under $115,000, resulting in over $200 million in market liquidation.

Glassnode data reveals that recent sellers in this market condition were predominantly short-term holders.

Bitcoin Short Term Sellers
Bitcoin Short-Term Sellers Drive Market Decline (Source: Glassnode)

Of the $21.34 billion in BTC that changed hands during the period, 85.5%—roughly $18.24 billion—was attributed to investors who acquired their coins within the last few months. In contrast, long-term holders accounted for only 14.5% ($3.10 billion) of the volume.

This trend suggests the pullback was driven more by newer market entrants reacting to price weakness than by institutional or long-term investors exiting the market.

Despite the sell pressure, the broader market remains largely in profit.

According to Glassnode data, the Percent Supply in Profit, representing the share of circulating BTC currently in profit, has stayed above 90% for over a month. While this reflects broad unrealized gains, it also signals rising pressure to take profits.

Bitcoin Supply in Profit
Bitcoin Supply in Profit (Source: Glassnode)
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What are the long-term consequences of the decline in Bitcoin block subsidies on network security? Also, what are the mitigation strategies? https://earlybirdsinvest.com/what-are-the-long-term-consequences-of-the-decline-in-bitcoin-block-subsidies-on-network-security-also-what-are-the-mitigation-strategies/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/what-are-the-long-term-consequences-of-the-decline-in-bitcoin-block-subsidies-on-network-security-also-what-are-the-mitigation-strategies/#respond Fri, 25 Jul 2025 09:36:22 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/what-are-the-long-term-consequences-of-the-decline-in-bitcoin-block-subsidies-on-network-security-also-what-are-the-mitigation-strategies/

Bitcoin’s security model is currently supported primarily by block subsidies, encouraging miners to donate to hash power and protect their networks. However, block subsidies are halved about every four years, and asymptotically approaching zero over time.

This has led to concerns that in the long run, transaction fees alone may not be enough to provide the same level of security, potentially leading to lower hashrates and increased vulnerability to attacks such as Deep Reorgs and 51% attacks.

I am interested in both theoretical and practical implications of this transition. in particular:

What are the expected outcomes of the decline in block subsidies on minor behavior and overall network security?

Are there any past rate market trends that suggest whether rate-based security is viable?

What mitigation strategies are being proposed or discussed, including tail emissions, protocol changes, and layer 2 mechanisms that can support L1 security?

I’m asking from both the engineering and economics perspective. If possible, we appreciate any references to existing research, suggestions, or data-driven analyses.

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Bitcoin Trades Above $117K as Whale Deposits Decline and Stablecoin Inflows Rise https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-trades-above-117k-as-whale-deposits-decline-and-stablecoin-inflows-rise/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-trades-above-117k-as-whale-deposits-decline-and-stablecoin-inflows-rise/#respond Fri, 18 Jul 2025 04:51:44 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-trades-above-117k-as-whale-deposits-decline-and-stablecoin-inflows-rise/ Bitcoin continues to maintain upward momentum despite a recent pullback from its all-time high. Currently trading at $117,847, the asset has recorded nearly a 10% gain over the past week.

The dip from peak levels, approximately a 4.1% decline, has not dampened broader investor sentiment, with several on-chain indicators suggesting renewed buying interest and reduced selling pressure.

Bitcoin Whale Withdrawals Decline, While Stablecoins Flow In

In a recent analysis posted to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, analyst Amr Taha shared insights pointing to a strategic change in behavior among key Bitcoin holders and investors.

The report, titled “Stablecoin Flood and Whale Retreat: Binance Moves Foreshadow Risk-On Sentiment”, outlined significant trends in whale activity and stablecoin flows that may support continued bullish momentum in the near term.

Binance whale to exchange flow.

Taha’s research highlighted a steep reduction in whale-level Bitcoin deposits on Binance. Over the past 30 days, these deposits have dropped from $6.75 billion to $4.5 billion, a $2.25 billion decline.

Historically, large deposits from whales to centralized exchanges often signal an intention to sell, so the recent drop may imply a reduction in immediate sell-side pressure. This could stabilize Bitcoin’s price in the short term, especially if whales continue to hold or move assets to cold storage instead of preparing them for sale.

At the same time, stablecoin flows have increased dramatically across major exchanges. On July 16, Binance and HTX saw combined stablecoin inflows exceeding $1.7 billion.

Stablecoin netflow.

Taha interpreted this as an indication that large entities, possibly institutions or whales, are preparing to accumulate digital assets. Large stablecoin deposits often precede significant buying activity, suggesting that the market could be gearing up for another leg higher, particularly if paired with reduced sell-side movements.

Macroeconomic Developments and Miner Sentiment Add Context

This on-chain activity is unfolding amid broader economic and political developments. Taha’s report also pointed to speculation around President Donald Trump’s comments during a private meeting, in which he reportedly considered replacing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Though later denied, the remark sparked reactions in traditional markets, including a weaker dollar and rising bond yields. These shifts signaled a rotation into risk assets, potentially benefiting crypto markets as investors reallocate capital in anticipation of a more accommodative monetary stance.

Separately, CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain analyzed Bitcoin’s miner profitability using the Puell Multiple indicator. The data shows that while miners are currently making solid profits, the level has not reached historical peaks seen during prior market tops.

In the 2017 and 2021 cycles, extreme miner profitability (indicated by Puell readings exceeding 2.0–3.0) often preceded sharp price corrections. At current levels, Arab Chain believes the market is not in a euphoric state, reducing the likelihood of imminent volatility due to miner-driven selloffs.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

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NFT-related tokens soar in Q2, with PENGU leading despite decline in trading volumes https://earlybirdsinvest.com/nft-related-tokens-soar-in-q2-with-pengu-leading-despite-decline-in-trading-volumes/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/nft-related-tokens-soar-in-q2-with-pengu-leading-despite-decline-in-trading-volumes/#respond Sat, 12 Jul 2025 05:55:45 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/nft-related-tokens-soar-in-q2-with-pengu-leading-despite-decline-in-trading-volumes/

NFT-related tokens delivered the strongest sector performance in the second quarter, gaining an average of 55.4% even as dollar-denominated NFT trading volume fell to multi-year lows.

Artemis data shows that the average gains from NFT-related tokens surpassed the second-best performance, which was Ethereum’s (ETH) 37.2%, by nearly 50%.

Pudgy Penguins’ PENGU token accounted for much of the sector’s advance. Trading data showed PENGU closed at $0.01476 on June 30, up from its intraday low of $0.00387 on April 8. The move represents a gain of roughly 3.8 times in just 83 days.

Daily turnover on Binance routinely exceeds $180 million in USDT terms, indicating sustained speculative appetite. The surge helped the NFT-applications basket outpace artificial intelligence tokens (35.6%) and Bitcoin (31.4%) during the period, according to Artemis.

As Bitcoin registered a new all-time high above $118,000 on July 11, PENGU is priced at $0.229 with a 20% price increase.

Volumes shrink while transaction counts climb

DappRadar’s “State of the Dapp Industry” report shows second-quarter NFT trading volume slipped to $823 million from $1.5 billion in the first quarter, a 45% drop. The slump is more significant if compared to the $4 billion in volume a year earlier, a 79% decline.

The drop came despite a jump in sales count to 12.5 million from 7 million the prior quarter, suggesting smaller ticket sizes dominated activity. 

DappRadar attributes the divergence to a market shift toward low-cost collectibles and gamified minting, which inflates transaction numbers without lifting notional value.

Market participants attributed the disconnect between token prices and marketplace turnover to speculation shifting from non-fungible assets to their related governance or meme tokens.

Artemis analysts noted that traders seeking leveraged exposure to NFT culture gravitated toward liquid exchange-listed tokens rather than illiquid JPEGs, a pattern that intensified once ETH funding rates turned negative in mid-May.

Broader sector data reinforce the split. The Bitcoin ecosystem increased by 6.2% and smart contract platforms rose by 16.2% during the quarter, but real-world asset tokens declined by 50.6% and data availability projects fell by 47.4%, according to Artemis. 

Second-quarter performance has left PENGU with a market capitalization exceeding $1.4 billion and a top 82 position on major price dashboards.

The token’s outsized rally, paired with shrinking marketplace volume, illustrates the growing detachment between fungible representations of NFT brands and the underlying non-fungible assets they reference.

Mentioned in this article
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World’s Largest Pension Fund Loses $61,000,000,000 in Three Months Amid US Dollar Decline https://earlybirdsinvest.com/worlds-largest-pension-fund-loses-61000000000-in-three-months-amid-us-dollar-decline/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/worlds-largest-pension-fund-loses-61000000000-in-three-months-amid-us-dollar-decline/#respond Sun, 06 Jul 2025 15:57:22 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/worlds-largest-pension-fund-loses-61000000000-in-three-months-amid-us-dollar-decline/

The largest pension fund in the world just announced a multi-billion dollar loss largely due to the declining value of the US dollar.

Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) recorded a $61.1 billion shortfall in the January-March quarter, its first across-the-board loss in all asset classes since mid-2022, reports the Japan Times.

The depreciating dollar, down 4.6% against the yen, significantly reduced the value of GPIF’s international holdings.

Global stock markets also faltered, with the MSCI All-Country World Index declining 1.7%, the S&P 500 falling 4.6%, and Japan’s Topix index dropped 4.5%.

The deficit reduced GPIF’s assets to $1.73 trillion, a 3.4% quarterly drop, as escalating US trade tariffs fueled concerns about a worldwide economic conflict, further weighing on equities.

Meanwhile, Japanese bond yields rose, in contrast to declining US Treasury yields amid the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer interest rates.

Despite the setback, GPIF achieved a positive annual return of 0.7% for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025.

With roughly half its assets tied up in foreign markets, the GPIF will likely face ongoing risks from currency fluctuations and trade tensions in the months ahead, while the US and Japan try to hammer out a new agreement on trade.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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XRP price risks 45% decline to $1.20 — Here is why https://earlybirdsinvest.com/xrp-price-risks-45-decline-to-1-20-here-is-why/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/xrp-price-risks-45-decline-to-1-20-here-is-why/#respond Mon, 05 May 2025 12:23:44 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/xrp-price-risks-45-decline-to-1-20-here-is-why/

Key takeaways:

  • XRP forms a bearish descending triangle on the daily chart, risking a 45% drop to $1.20.

  • Declining daily active addresses signal reduced transaction activity and liquidity.

  • A breakout above $2.18 could invalidate the bearish pattern.

The XRP (XRP) price flashes warning signs as a bearish technical pattern emerges on its daily chart, coinciding with declining network activity. 

XRP descending triangle hints at 45% price drop

The XRP price chart has been forming a descending triangle pattern on its daily chart since its late 2024 rally, characterized by a flat support level and a downward-sloping resistance line.

A descending triangle chart pattern that forms after a strong uptrend is seen as a bearish reversal indicator. As a rule, the setup resolves when the price breaks below the flat support level and falls by as much as the triangle’s maximum height.

XRP/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bulls are struggling to keep XRP above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), currently at $2.18, signaling a lack of strength.

If this trend continues, a close below the moving averages, namely the 50-day SMA and the 100-day SMA at $2.06, could sink the XRP/USDT pair to the psychological support level at $2.00.

Related: Is XRP price going to crash again?

If this support fails, XRP price could tumble toward the downside target at around $1.20 by the end of May, down 45% from current price levels.

XRP’s descending triangle target echoes an earlier analysis that warned of a possible decline to as low as $1.61 if key support levels don’t hold.

Conversely, a clear breakout above the triangle’s resistance line at $2.18 will invalidate the bearish structure, putting XRP in a good position to rally toward the $3.00 psychological level.

Declining XRP network activity

The XRP Ledger has experienced a significant drop in network activity compared to Q1 2025. Onchain data from Glassnode shows that the network’s daily active addresses (DAAs) are now far below March’s peak. 

On March 19, the ledger recorded a robust 608,000 DAAs, reflecting high user engagement and transaction activity. However, this metric crashed in April and early May, as shown in the chart below. 

With only around 30,000 daily active addresses, user transactions have decreased, possibly signaling reduced interest or a lack of confidence in XRP’s near-term outlook.

XRP Daily Active Addresses. Source: Glassnode

Historically, declines in network activity typically signal upcoming price stagnation or drops, as lower transaction volume reduces liquidity and buying pressure.

Meanwhile, XRP’s 1.17% drop over the last 24 hours is accompanied by a 30% increase in daily trading volume to $2 billion. Trading volume increases amid a price decline can be interpreted as profit-taking or repositioning by crypto traders as they wait for XRP’s next move. 

Popular analyst Dom commented on the increased selling volume, pointing out that “a large amount of market selling over the last week” is why XRP failed to sustain upward moves. 

Source: Dom

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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In the whirlwind world of NFTs—where pixelated avatars and algorithmic art turned into million-dollar headlines—few stories embody the industry’s explosive rise and sobering fall quite like RTFKT (pronounced “artifact”).

Born from the electric blend of sneaker culture, gaming aesthetics, and blockchain innovation, RTFKT’s journey from garage startup to Nike-backed digital fashion icon—and ultimately to its quiet shutdown—paints a portrait of both the promise and peril of Web3.

The Rise: Disruption in a Box

RTFKT emerged in 2020, during the first real wave of NFT mania. Founded by Benoit Pagotto, Chris Le, and Steven Vasilev, the company didn’t just hop on the NFT bandwagon—it redefined it. Merging luxury fashion sensibilities with gaming culture and digital ownership, RTFKT wasn’t just selling JPEGs; it was selling identity, exclusivity, and a stake in the future.

Their early drops were meteoric. In February 2021, they made headlines by selling 600 digital sneakers in just seven minutes, raking in $3.2 million. This wasn’t art hanging on a wall—it was fashion you could flex in virtual worlds, wear in AR, and potentially redeem physically. It felt like magic, and the market responded accordingly.

Collaborations with big-name artists like Fewocious and Takashi Murakami further fueled the hype. The Clone X project—a collection of 20,000 anime-inspired avatars co-created with Murakami—was a breakout hit, selling out instantly and cementing RTFKT’s place as one of the crown jewels of NFT culture.

The Nike Era: Peak Power, Corporate Pressure

In December 2021, Nike acquired RTFKT, a move that felt like a turning point for digital fashion. For many, this was the moment NFTs “made it.” If the world’s biggest sportswear brand was jumping in, surely this was just the beginning.

And initially, the partnership bore fruit. Nike Cryptokicks—NFT sneakers with changeable digital skins—debuted at 2.9 ETH, equivalent to roughly $8,500 at the time. There were hardware wallet collaborations with Ledger, NFT quests, and teaser trailers for the upcoming “Animus” universe. For a time, RTFKT looked unstoppable.

But within the walls of corporate infrastructure, the friction began. As NFT markets cooled, Nike pivoted to safer, scalable initiatives like .Swoosh, sidelining RTFKT’s experimental spirit. Missteps like U.S.-only Cryptokicks shipping further strained community trust, contributing to RTFKT’s eventual decline.

Nike’s overall digital strategy also began to shift. Rather than continuing with high-risk, collectible NFT assets, the company turned its attention to more mainstream, gamified digital experiences—like in-game wearables and branded items for virtual platforms. RTFKT’s avant-garde approach no longer aligned with Nike’s broader priorities for consumer engagement in digital space.

The Fall: From Rocket Ship to Rough Landing

By mid-2022, cracks were starting to show. The broader NFT market was cooling rapidly, and RTFKT struggled to maintain its edge. Delays plagued the long-anticipated Animus project, and MNLTH 2—meant to be a follow-up to the original mystery NFT box—underwhelmed fans.

Clone X, once a marquee digital asset, tumbled in value. At its peak in January 2022, the floor price surged to approximately 15.5 ETH, with some rare NFTs fetching up to 19.2 ETH. Notably, CloneX #4594 sold for 450 ETH, and CloneX #13134 for 368 ETH in 2022. By late 2024, the floor price plummeted to around 0.3 ETH ($320).

The missteps weren’t just technical—they were cultural. One controversy erupted when Cryptokicks iRL, RTFKT’s foray into physical sneakers, limited shipping to the U.S. only. For an international, Web3-native community, it felt tone-deaf and exclusionary.

NFT holders, who had paid a premium for global, decentralized perks, weren’t pleased. Despite public apologies and damage control attempts, the trust erosion was irreversible.

The End of the Line

In December 2024, Nike announced that RTFKT would shut down operations by January 2025. The reason? A strategic pivot back to physical products and an acknowledgment that the NFT ecosystem was no longer aligned with the company’s near-term vision.

Community members took to Discord and X to express frustration and grief over the project’s abrupt end.

Shortly before the announcement, RTFKT released one final product: MNLTH X featuring the Blade. Marketed as the culmination of its tech-fashion fusion, it failed to reignite interest or capture the imagination of a now-weary community.

Finally, in April 2025, RTFKT’s NFT collections became temporarily inaccessible due to technical issues with their hosting provider, Cloudflare. The company responded by announcing a migration of all NFT metadata to ArWeave, a decentralized, permanent storage protocol designed to ensure NFTs remain accessible even if a centralized host fails.

The Legacy: What RTFKT Leaves Behind

RTFKT’s story is more than a boom-and-bust tale—it’s a mirror for the entire NFT industry.

At its peak, RTFKT made digital ownership feel aspirational. It showed how virtual fashion could blend seamlessly into real-world luxury, how community-driven storytelling could power a global brand, and how NFTs could be more than speculative assets—they could be cultural artifacts.

But it also revealed the dangers of rapid growth, the risks of overpromising and underdelivering, and the difficulty of staying nimble inside a corporate machine.

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The S&P 500 Just Endured Its 5th Biggest 2-Day Decline in 75 Years — and History Is Crystal Clear What Happens Next for Stocks https://earlybirdsinvest.com/the-sp-500-just-endured-its-5th-biggest-2-day-decline-in-75-years-and-history-is-crystal-clear-what-happens-next-for-stocks/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/the-sp-500-just-endured-its-5th-biggest-2-day-decline-in-75-years-and-history-is-crystal-clear-what-happens-next-for-stocks/#respond Thu, 10 Apr 2025 07:20:48 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/the-sp-500-just-endured-its-5th-biggest-2-day-decline-in-75-years-and-history-is-crystal-clear-what-happens-next-for-stocks/ Historic declines in the S&P 500 have paved the way for truly outsize return potential.

For more than two years, Wall Street had been in a virtually unstoppable bull market. The rise of artificial intelligence (AI), the resilience of the U.S. economy, and excitement surrounding stock splits in some of Wall Street’s most-influential businesses all played key roles in sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI 7.87%), S&P 500 (^GSPC 9.52%), and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC 12.16%) to new heights.

But the stock market wouldn’t be a “market” without the ability for equities to move in both directions.

The last seven weeks have not been smooth sailing for Wall Street or investors. Since the S&P reached its all-time closing high on Feb. 19, the ageless Dow, benchmark S&P 500, and growth-focused Nasdaq Composite have respectively fallen by 14.9%, 17.6%, and 22.2%, as of the closing bell on April 7.

A New York Stock Exchange floor trader looking up at a monitor in disbelief.

Image source: Getty Images.

However, the decline in stocks really picked up to close out the previous week. On April 3 and April 4, the S&P 500 cumulatively lost 10.5% of its value, which marked the fifth biggest two-day decline in the index since 1950.

With investors’ emotions running high, many are looking to historical data points and correlative events for guidance. Though there’s no indicator that can guarantee short-term directional moves for the stock market, history is quite clear what happens next for stocks after two-day wash-out events.

Why is the stock market crashing?

Before digging into the historical data that’s likely to turn investors’ frowns upside down, let’s tackle how we got to where we are now. In other words, why did Wall Street plunge into a correction?

The obvious answer is that uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump’s tariff policy is to blame.

On April 2, the president unveiled his “Liberation Day” tariff policy, which entails a sweeping 10% global tariff, as well as select reciprocal tariffs on countries that have historically run unfavorable trade imbalances with the U.S.

Trump believes tariffs will generate revenue for America, protect U.S. jobs, and encourage domestic production. Additionally, the use of tariffs opens the door for the renegotiation of trade deals that currently may not be in America’s best interests.

Unfortunately, tariffs aren’t as cut-and-dried as President Trump makes them appear. A lack of differentiation between input and output tariffs, for instance, is a dangerous game to play with the U.S. economy. Output tariffs are an added tax placed on finished goods imported into the country. Meanwhile, an input tariff is a tax placed on a good used to complete a finished product domestically. Input tariffs run the risk of increasing the prevailing rate of inflation during a period of slower growth for the U.S. economy.

S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio Chart

S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio data by YCharts.

But the fifth largest two-day decline in stocks isn’t entirely due to Trump’s tariff policy. Some semblance of blame also lies with the stock market’s being historically pricey.

The S&P 500’s Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) Ratio, which is also known as the cyclically adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE Ratio), entered 2025 at the third-highest premium during a bull market when back-tested 154 years. It peaked at a multiple of 38.89 in December 2024, which compares to an average multiple of 17.23 since January 1871.

Looking back 154 years, there have only been a half-dozen occasions, including the present, where the S&P 500’s Shiller P/E surpassed 30 and held that level for at least two months. The former five occurrences all resulted in a loss of value of between 20% and 89% in one or more of Wall Street’s major stock indexes losing between 20% and 89%.

This is a roundabout way of saying that investors are unwilling to tolerate outsize stock valuations over an extended period.

A person drawing an arrow to and circling the bottom of a steep decline in a stock chart.

Image source: Getty Images.

When the S&P 500 crashes, it’s a surefire buying opportunity, per history

With a better understanding of what’s driven the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite to jaw-dropping losses recently, let’s allow history to take center stage.

According to data aggregated by Creative Planning’s Chief Market Strategist Charlie Bilello, the 10-biggest two-day percentage declines in the benchmark S&P 500 since 1950 have ranged from 9% to 24.6%. As noted, the 10.5% decline from April 3 to April 4 slotted in as the fifth largest drop.

But what’s far more important is the total return potential, including dividends, of the broad-based index following these sizable declines.

As you’ll note in the following post on social media platform X by Bilello, every single instance where the S&P 500 endured a decline of at least 9% over a two-day period eventually led to significant gains over the next year, three years, and five years.

On average, the S&P 500 was up:

  • 31.8% on a total return basis one year later.
  • 50.2% on a total return basis three years later.
  • 121.9% on a total return basis five years later.

To put this into context, the average annual return from 1957 through March 2023 for the S&P 500 was roughly 10.5%. Historic declines in the benchmark index have paved the way for truly outsize return potential.

Widening the lens a bit further demonstrates just how much of an ally time in the market can be for patient investors.

Every year, the analysts at Crestmont Research refresh a published data set that calculates the rolling 20-year total returns of the S&P 500 dating back to the start of the 20th century. This published data set examines 106 rolling 20-year periods (1900-1919, 1901-1920, 1902-1921, through 2005-2024).

What Crestmont discovered was that all 106 periods produced a positive annualized return. In easy-to-understand terms, if you had, hypothetically, purchased an S&P 500 tracking index anywhere between 1900 and 2005 and held your position for 20 years, you generated a profit 100% of the time. It didn’t matter if you held through a depression, recession, war(s), a pandemic, or various stock market crashes — patience paid off every single time.

Although the recent stock market crash has been scary, history strongly suggests it’s an open invitation for long-term investors to put their money to work.

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