By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

As both traditional and crypto markets await the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, some unrelated news hit the wires, underscoring gold’s appeal as a universal haven.

The Financial Times reported that Tether, the issuer of world’s largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, is considering a serious play in the gold industry. CEO Paolo Ardoino has said the metal is safer than any government currency, calling it a perfect complement to bitcoin.

If the report, which cited people familiar with the talks, comes to fruition, it could mean crypto is about to become a bigger part of gold’s reflexive bullish cycle. The precious metal is already soaking up strong bids globally as sticky inflation, fiscal headaches and concerns over central bank independence weigh on investor. Countries are trimming their U.S. Treasury holdings and scooping up gold as a safer, sanctions-proof haven.

Tether’s interest could also boost the appeal of Tether Gold XAUT$3,554.92, which is issued by its affiliate company TG Commodities. Each XAUT represents ownership of one fine troy ounce of physical gold and was recently price around $3,560.

Meanwhile, the prospects for bitcoin BTC$112,644.00, ether (ETH) and the wider crypto market are likely to be determined by the jobs report.

“A weak print will cement expectations for a 25bps rate cut, likely softening the dollar and easing Treasury yields, which will be positive for risk assets, including crypto,” Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, said in an email. “But the real risk is a strong report: even a modest upside surprise could unwind dovish positioning, send yields higher, and pressure BTC and ETH back toward their support levels.”

In other key news, institutional activity points to interest broadening beyond BTC and ETH. DeFi Development Corp. recently bought over 196,000 Solana SOL$207.70 tokens, establishing a treasury worth some $427 million. And Thumzup Media, backed by Donald Trump Jr., said it acquired $1 million of BTC, along with new purchases of DOGE, LTC, SOL and XRP.

In traditional markets, the MOVE index spiked, signaling increased volatility in U.S. Treasury yields, which could lead to financial tightening and weigh on risk assets. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
• Macro
  • Sept. 5, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases July producer price inflation data.
    • PPI MoM Prev. -1.25%
    • PPI YoY Prev. 3.24%
  • Sept. 5, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases August employment data.
    • Nonfarm Payrolls Est. 75K vs. Prev. 73K
    • Unemployment Rate Est. 4.3% vs. Prev. 4.2%
    • Government Payrolls Prev. -10K
    • Manufacturing Payrolls Est. -5K vs. Prev. -11K
  • Sept. 5, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases August employment data.
    • Unemployment Rate Est. 7% vs. Prev. 6.9%
    • Employment Change Est. 7.5K vs. Prev. -40.8K
  • Sept. 5: S&P 500 Rebalance update released after market close. Strategy (MSTR) is one of the companies being considered for inclusion in the index.
  • Sept. 5, 7 p.m.: Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics releases August consumer price inflation data.
    • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.28%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 5.11% vs. Prev. 4.9%
  • Sept. 5, 7 p.m.: El Salvador’s Statistics and Census Office releases August consumer price inflation data.
    • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.33%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. -0.14%
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Sept. 9: GameStop (GME), post-market, $0.19

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Uniswap DAO is voting on deploying Uniswap v3 on Ronin with $1M in RON and $500K in UNI incentives to make it the chain’s primary decentralized exchange. Voting ends Sept. 6.
  • Lido DAO is voting on a proposal to migrate Nethermind’s ~7,000 Ethereum validators to infrastructure operated by Twinstake, a staking provider co-founded by Nethermind. Voting ends Sept. 8.
  • Uniswap DAO is voting to establish “DUNI,” a Wyoming DUNA as its legal entity, preserving decentralized governance while enabling off-chain operations and liability protections, with $16.5M in UNI for legal/tax budgets and $75K UNI for compliance. Voting ends Sept. 8.
  • Uniswap DAO is voting on an updated Unichain-USDS Growth Plan to accelerate adoption through performance-based incentives and DAO-guided distribution. The proposal introduces minimum KPIs, a “no result, no reward” model. Voting ends Sept. 9.
• Unlocks
  • Sept. 9: Sonic (S) to unlock 5.02% of its circulating supply worth $46.02 million.
  • Sept. 11: Aptos APT$4.3254 to unlock 2.2% of its circulating supply worth $48.86 million.
  • Sept. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 5.98% of its circulating supply worth $15.66 million.
  • Sept. 15: Sei SEI$0.2930 to unlock 1.18% of its circulating supply worth $16.01 million.
  • Sept. 16: Arbitrum ARB$0.5034 to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $46.05 million.
• Token Launches
  • Sept. 5: WORLDSHARDS (SHARDS) to be listed on Binance Alpha, MEXC, Gate.io and others.
  • Sept. 5: Boost (BOOST) to be listed on Binance Alpha, Bitget, MEXC, BitMart, and others.
  • Sept. 8: Openledger (OPEN) to be listed on Binance Alpha, MEXC and others.
  • Sept. 8: OlaXBT (AIO) to be listed on Binance Alpha and others.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation Conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB15 for 15% off your registration.

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

• The memecoin sector had shown signs of fading earlier this year, particularly after the short-lived hype cycles around tokens like TRUMP and MELANIA in January. Those launches briefly captured attention, but failed to sustain momentum, reinforcing the perception that the memecoin trade was exhausted after 2023’s frenzy.
• Both subsequently slumped. TRUMP is now 88% lower and and MELANIA is down 95% despite being touted by the U.S. president and first lady in January.
• However, there’s a new kid on the block: MemeCore, a layer-1 blockchain solely focused on transitioning memecoins from speculative assets to something that has utility in decentralized finance (DeFi).
• The platform’s native token, M, has risen by 261% in the past week despite a wider market pullback.
• The flurry of activity can also be tied to the MemeX liquidity festival, which offers $5.7 million in rewards to traders. It’s worth noting that 85% of the trading volume has taken place on decentralized exchange PancakeSwap, indicating significant retail flows as opposed to on-chain utility.
• While some may argue this is just another flash in the pan, the surge demonstrates just how quickly memecoin sentiment can shift.
• The positive sentiment around MemeCore could find a way of moving back to Solana-based memecoin platform Pump.fun, whose $15.8 million in daily revenue in January has tumbled to between $1.5 million and $2.5 million this week.

Derivatives Positioning

• Ether’s open interest in USDT and dollar-denominated perpetual contracts on major exchanges declined to 1.93 million ETH, a four-week low. This capital outflow raises questions about the sustainability of ETH’s nearly 18% gain over the period.
• Except for LINK and BTC, open interest declined across the top 10 tokens. OI in major Solana perpetuals slipped below 11 million SOL, threatening to invalidate the four-week uptrend.
• BTC futures activity on the CME remains subdued, but options are heating up, with open interest rising to 47.23K BTC, the highest since April. The notional OI has risen to $5.21 billion, the most since November. Some traders have been buying cheap out-of-the-money puts, prepping for a potential hotter-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report.
• Consistent with trends on offshore exchanges, Ether’s futures open interest on the CME slipped below 2 million ETH, while the three-month annualized premium rose from 5% to 7%.
• On Deribit, BTC puts continue to trade at a premium to calls across all tenors, pointing to downside concerns.
• The seven-day volatility risk premium has retraced nearly to zero, suggesting that the implied volatility for seven days is now roughly equal to the realized volatility. In other words, investors aren’t expecting a premium to hedge against future volatility spikes, despite the U.S. jobs data due later today.
• In ETH’s case, puts are trading at a premium to calls out to the end-November expiry.
• Block flows on the OTC desk at Paradigm have been mixed, with a BTC $116K call lifted alongside an ether $4K put.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 1.71% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $112,306.62 (24hrs: +1.4%)
• ETH is up 2.14 at $4,398.33 (24hrs: -0.19%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 1.85% at 4,050.32 (24hrs: +0.28%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bps at 2.88%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0015% (1.6425% annualized) on KuCoin

• DXY is down 0.35% at 98.00
• Gold futures are unchanged at $3,609.80
• Silver futures are unchanged at $41.42
• Nikkei 225 closed up 1.03% at 43,018.75
• Hang Seng closed up 1.43% at 25,417.98
• FTSE is up 0.26% at 9,241.13
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.18% at 5,356.16
• DJIA closed on Thursday up 0.77% at 45,621.29
• S&P 500 closed up 0.83% at 6,502.08
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.98% at 21,707.69
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.57% at 28,915.89
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.49% at 2,770.29
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1.5 bps at 4.161%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.21% at 6,524.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.5% at 23,787.25
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 45,664.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.73% (unchanged)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03914 (0.82%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 973 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $52.48
• Total Fees: 4.86 BTC / $537,022
• CME Futures Open Interest: 133,775 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 31.6 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 8.92%

Technical Analysis

• The ether-bitcoin (ETH) ratio is looking to top the Ichimoku cloud on the weekly chart. Crossovers above the cloud are said to confirm a bullish shift in momentum.
• The pair has already topped the descending trendline, characterizing the three-year-long downward trend.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $306.80 (+1.49%), +1.53% at $311.49 in pre-market
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $117.49 (-0.82%), +0.54%% at $118.12
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $22.91 (-6.07%), +1.27% at $23.20
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $49.01 (-9.68%), +1.27%% at $49.63
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.11 (-4.91%), +1.52% at $15.34
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.16 (-2.16%), +1.98% at $13.42
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $113.62 (+0.29%)
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.08 (-3.81%), +1.1% at $9.18
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $29.17 (-4.98%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $29.17 (-0.08%), +2.84% at $25.00

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $327.59 (-0.81%), +2.2% at $334.86
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $13.62 (+0.29%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $15.43 (-8.26%), +2.53% at $15.82
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $6.33 (-4.52%), +2.69% at $6.50
• Mei Pharma (MEIP): closed at $4.27 (-5.74%), +1.87% at $4.35

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$222.9 million
• Cumulative net flows: $54.63 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$167.3 million
• Cumulative net flows: $13.19 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.52 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

• The chart shows the Solana memecoin launchpad Pump.fun’s purchases of its native token, PUMP.
• The platform snapped up $12,192,383 in PUMP tokens last week, offsetting the total circulating supply by over 5%.

While You Were Sleeping

• Stablecoin Group Tether Holds Talks to Invest in Gold Miners (Financial Times): Tether, which already holds $8.7 billion in gold bars, is considering investments across the gold supply chain, with its CEO saying the metal is a complement to bitcoin.
• Bitcoin Bulls Should Keep an Eye Out for Spike In Key Bond Market Index (CoinDesk): The recent sharp rise in the MOVE index, a key gauge of volatility in U.S. Treasuries, often signals tighter liquidity, which curbs demand for risk assets such as bitcoin.
• Bitcoin Hits $113K as BTC Dominance Approaches Two-Week High of 59% (CoinDesk): Bitcoin’s move came as $3.28 billion in options expired at 08:00 UTC on Deribit near Friday’s $112,000 “max pain” point, where options buyers face the biggest losses.
• Hong Kong’s Digital Bond Market Gains Steam With Fresh Offerings (Bloomberg): Digital bonds, debt securities that use the blockchain for issuance, trading and settlement, are gaining traction in Hong Kong, with the government offering subsidies of up to HK$2.5 million ($320,500) per offering.
• Venezuelan Military Aircraft Fly Near U.S. Warship in ‘Provocative Move’, Pentagon Says (Reuters): Venezuela’s action followed two days after a U.S. strike on a Venezuelan boat allegedly carrying narcotics killed 11, an act criticized by some legal scholars and one Democratic congresswoman.
• Bitcoin Crash Brewing? Trader Plans Bids at $94K, $82K for Potential Market Freakout (CoinDesk): The president of Spectra Markets sees bitcoin at an inflection point, citing fading bullish drivers, a bearish double top and halving cycle history as reasons for placing bids at $94,000 and $82,000.

In the Ether

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The cryptocurrency market pulled back over the last 24 hours, led by declines in major coins as retail investors switched out of large-cap tokens and into smaller, more speculative assets.

Both bitcoin BTC$102,345.43 and ether ETH$2,552.96 dropped around 2% and the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broad market, fell 2.7%.

“We’ve observed a significant week-on-week increase in retail participation, reinforcing the broader narrative of rising optimism,” said Jake O., an over-the-counter trader at Wintermute. “The shift down the risk curve is most evident in retail screen flows.”

Institutional investors, for their part, have been more conservative. They’re still stocking up on bitcoin, ether and XRP$2.48, while easing off positions in solana SOL$170.94 which has faced “sustained pressures.”

“Some are viewing SOLETH underperformance as an opportunity to position for Solana topside,” Jake noted, pointing to steady buying in $200 Solana call options ahead of June and July.

Other options activity suggests traders are hedging for volatility ahead. Call spreads on ether were unwound and some traders moved into collar structures — strategies often used to protect against price swings — signaling caution after recent gains.

The growing hedging activity adds a note of caution to retail’s swing to speculation. Economic uncertainty, lingering inflation pressures and U.S. tariff policy are all weighing on risk appetite in crypto as well as traditional markets.

Global asset managers, in fact, currently have their largest underweight position in the U.S. dollar in 19 years. Even though President Donald Trump secured a major investment deal with Qatar and a temporary reduction in U.S.-China tariffs, these outcomes may lead to further downside: Spanish bank Bankinter said in a note that the market has shown fatigue over the last trading session.

“We still think the damage is done: both EPS and prices should feel the strain, with rising inflationary pressures preventing the Fed from cutting rates as much as the market expects,” the bank’s analysts wrote. Market participants are set to now focus on producer price inflation and retail sales data, as well as on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later today.

For the crypto market, a re-test of the all-time high isn’t out of the picture.

“Looking ahead, we believe there is further room for digital assets to rally, especially as Coinbase’s inclusion into the S&P 500 on 19 May draws closer,” Singapore-based QCP Capital wrote. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
  • May 16, 9:30 a.m.: Galaxy Digital Class A shares to begin trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol GLXY.
  • May 19: CME Group is expected to launch its cash-settled XRP futures.
  • May 19: Coinbase Global (COIN) will replace Discover Financial Services (DFS) in the S&P 500, effective before the opening of trading.
• Macro
  • May 15, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics releases March retail sales data.
    • Retail Sales MoM Est. 1% vs. Prev. 0.5%
    • Retail Sales YoY Est. -0.5% vs. Prev. 1.5%
  • May 15, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April producer price inflation data.
    • Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. -0.1%
    • Core PPI YoY Est. 3.1% vs. Prev. 3.3%
    • PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. -0.4%
    • PPI YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.7%
  • May 15, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases April retail sales data.
    • Retail Sales MoM Est. 0% vs. Prev. 1.5%
    • Retail Sales YoY Prev. 4.9%
  • May 15, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended May 10.
    • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 229K vs. Prev. 228K
  • May 15, 8:40 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell will deliver a speech (“Framework Review”) in Washington. Livestream link.
  • May 16, 10 a.m.: The University of Michigan releases (Preliminary) May U.S. consumer sentiment data.
    • Michigan Consumer Sentiment Est. 53 vs. Prev. 52.2
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • May 15: Bit Digital (BTBT), post-market, -$0.05
  • May 15: Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR), pre-market, -$0.42
  • May 15: Fold Holdings (FLD), post-market, N/A
  • May 15: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-market, N/A
  • May 28: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $0.88

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Uniswap DAO is voting on a proposal to fund the integration of Uniswap V4 on Ethereum in Oku and add Unichain on Oku in a bid to enhance Uniswap’s reach and liquidity migration to V4. Voting ends May 18.
  • May 15, 11 a.m.: Yield Guild Games to host a Q1 2025 community update Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.
  • May 15, 10 a.m.: Moca Network to host a Discord townhall session discussing network updates.
  • May 21, 6 p.m.: Theta Network to host an Ask Me Anything session in a livestream.
• Unlocks
  • May 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 4.09% of its circulating supply worth $23.53 million.
  • May 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.09% of its circulating supply worth $14.22 million.
  • May 16: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.35% of its circulating supply worth $17.8 million.
  • May 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.95% of its circulating supply worth $39.06 million.
  • May 17: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.4% of its circulating supply worth $42.84 million.
• Token Launches
  • May 15: RIZE (RIZE) to list on Kraken.
  • May 16: Galxe (GAL), Litentry (LIT), Mines of Dalarnia (DAR), Orion Protocol (ORN), and PARSIQ (PRQ) to be delisted from Coinbase.

Conferences

CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

Derivatives Positioning

• BTC and ETH perpetual futures open interest ticked up alongside an overnight spot price pullback, but funding rates remain positive. Perhaps traders are buying the dip.
• Open interest in XRP perpetual futures has dropped, signaling an unwinding of longs.
• Ether futures open interest on the CME has increased from roughly 685K ETH to 955K ETH in a week, reaching the highest since March 11. BTC CME futures have yet to see a similar uptick.
• On Deribit, ETH risk reversals at the front-end have flipped negative to show bias for puts, or downside protection. BTC calls continue to trade at a premium.
• OTC tech platform Paradigm noted mixed flows, with OTM BTC put spreads both bought and sold, while ETH OTM call spreads continued to be lifted.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 1.49% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $101,906.02 (24hrs: -1.52%)
• ETH is down 2.54% at $2,540.80 (24hrs: -2.58%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 2.79% at 3,204.04 (24hrs: -3.66%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 1 bps at 3.11%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0045% (4.8968% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.29% at 100.75
• Gold is down 0.59% at $3,168.30/oz
• Silver is down 0.85% at $32/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed -0.98% at 37,755.51
• Hang Seng closed -0.79% at 23,453.16
• FTSE is up 0.14% at 8,596.60
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.54% at 5,374.02
• DJIA closed on Wednesday -0.21% at 42,051.06
• S&P 500 closed +0.1% at 5,892.58
• Nasdaq closed +0.72% at 19,146.81
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.3% at 25,692.45
• S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.18% at 2,645.42
• U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 3 bps at 4.51%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.51% at 5,878.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.72% at 21,239.50
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.32% at 41,982.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 62.77 (+0.31%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02490 (-1.23%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 861 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $54.63
• Total Fees: 7.21 BTC / $747,357.79
• CME Futures Open Interest: 149,720 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 31.9 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 9.04%

Technical Analysis

• While BTC has pulled back from the recent high of $105,700 to under $102,000, it’s broader upward trajectory remains intact.
• A break below $100,000 would invalidate the trend channel from April 9 lows, potentially leading to a deeper pullback.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $416.75 (-1.15%), down 2.35% at $406.95 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $263.41 (+2.53%), down 3.39% at $254.48
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at $31.96 (+8.74%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.87 (-3.05%), down 2.52% at $15.47
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $8.91 (-1.66%), down 2.24% at $8.71
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $10.32 (+0.78%), down 1.55% at $10.16
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.61 (-3.9%), down 2.29% at $9.39
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $16.95 (-1.45%), down 1.71% at $16.66
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $32.54 (-11.34%), down 1.72% at $31.98
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $34.88 (-17.03%), unchanged in pre-market

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily net flow: $319.5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $41.37 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.17 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: $63.5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $2.55 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.44 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The chart shows a sharp rise in the number of open ETH futures bets on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
• The surge indicates growing institutional participation in the second-largest cryptocurrency.

While You Were Sleeping

• CFTC’s Pham Said to Plot Exit, Agency May Be Left Without a Party Majority (CoinDesk): If Brian Quintenz is confirmed as CFTC chair, he would replace a departing Democrat, while two Republicans also plan to leave, potentially reducing the five-member agency to just two commissioners.
• Altcoin Season Could Heat Up in June and Drain Part of Bitcoin’s $2T Market Cap, Analyst Says (CoinDesk): Bitcoin’s dominance rate fell from 65% to 62% in a week, signaling a shift toward altcoins. Analyst Joao Wedson says dominance will drop further.
• Trump Says U.S. Close to a Nuclear Deal With Iran (Reuters): Talks remain complicated by sharp disagreements and Tehran’s continued uranium enrichment.
• Group of 21 Economies — Including U.S. and China — Warns of Growth Slowdown Over Trade Tensions (CNBC): The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forecasts growth will slow to 2.6% this year from 3.6% in 2024, citing tariffs and non-tariff barriers as factors undermining business confidence.
• ARK Invest Bought $9.4M Worth of eToro Shares on Trading Platform’s Debut (CoinDesk): Cathie Wood’s firm bought 140,000 ETOR shares as the stock jumped 29% from its $52 open on stronger-than-expected demand.
• U.K. Economy Raced at Start of Year but Slowdown Looms (The Wall Street Journal): Despite outpacing the U.S. and eurozone with 0.7% first-quarter growth, rising employer taxes and wage costs have dented business confidence, pointing to weaker performance later this year and in 2026.

In the Ether

Markets seem bullish ahead of the jobs report due later Friday, with bitcoin (BTC) rising toward $97,000 after stocks rose for an eighth straight day on Thursday. That gave the S&P 500 its longest rally since August as investors grew more confident that trade tensions between Washington and Beijing are cooling.

Still, the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index is little changed over the last 24 hours with the drop in first-quarter GDP pointing to economic strain from the trade war. While traders are now betting the Federal Reserve could cut interest-rates four times this year — one more than they’d priced in before the reciprocal tariffs were announced — personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation came in above forecasts, which limits the central bank’s room for easing, said James Butterfill, the head of research at CoinShares.

Today’s payrolls data remains a “critical piece of the puzzle,” he said.

“When the Fed eventually decides to cut rates, it is likely to do so in a knee-jerk and forceful manner — reacting to a significant deterioration in economic conditions rather than being proactive. Such a dramatic policy shift could act as a catalyst for a significant breakout rally in bitcoin, as investors seek alternative stores of value amid aggressive monetary easing,” Butterfill said.

That policy shift could align with bitcoin’s historical performance. Since 2013, the cryptocurrency has seen an average gain of 7.52% in May, according to CoinGlass data. And it’s not alone: ether (ETH), which has been significantly underperforming BTC, has posted an average gain of 27.3% in May since 2016, the best-performing month for the Ethereum blockchain’s token.

“Investor confidence is gradually returning to crypto markets following a volatile start to the year, with April seeing a rebound across majors as tariff-driven macro fears eased,” said Vijay Chetty, CEO of Eclipse. Growing regulatory clarity is an “underappreciated catalyst that will set the stage for broader institutional use cases,” Chetty added. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
  • May 5, 3 a.m.: IOTA’s Rebased network upgrade starts. Rebased moves IOTA to a new network, boosting capacity to as many as 50,000 transactions per second, offering staking rewards of 10%-15% a year and adding support for MoveVM smart contracts.
  • May 5, 11 a.m.: The Crescendo network upgrade goes live on the Kaspa (KAS) mainnet. This upgrade boosts the network’s performance by increasing the block production rate to 10 blocks per second from 1 block per second.
  • May 6: Casper Network (CSPR) launches its 2.0 mainnet upgrade, introducing faster transactions, enhanced smart contracts, and improved staking features to boost enterprise adoption.
  • May 7, 6:05 a.m.: The Pectra hard fork network upgrade will get activated on the Ethereum (ETH) mainnet at epoch 364032. Pectra combines two major components: the Prague execution layer hard fork and the Electra consensus layer upgrade.
• Macro
  • May 2, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April employment data.
    • Nonfarm Payrolls Est. 130K vs. Prev. 228K
    • Unemployment Rate Est. 4.2% vs. Prev. 4.2%
  • May 2, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases Brazil April purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
    • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 51.8
  • May 2, 11 a.m.: S&P Global releases Mexico April purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
    • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 46.5
  • May 5, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (Final) U.S. April purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
    • Composite PMI Est. 51.2 vs. Prev. 53.5
    • Services PMI Est. 51.4 vs. Prev. 54.4
  • May 5, 10:00 a.m.: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases U.S. April economic activity data.
    • Services PMI Est. 50.6 vs. Prev. 50.8
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • May 6: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market, $-0.07
  • May 8: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $2.08
  • May 8: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market
  • May 8: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Compound DAO is voting on moving 35,200 COMP (~$1.5 m) into a multisig safe to test selling covered calls on COMP for USDC, lend that USDC in Compound for extra yield, then use the returns to buy back COMP and repeat—targeting roughly 15 % annual gain. Voting ends May 2.
  • May 5, 4 p.m.: Livepeer (LPT) to host a Treasury Talk session on Discord.
• Unlocks
  • May 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 3.10% of its circulating supply worth $53.44 million.
  • May 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.56% of its circulating supply worth $13.84 million.
  • May 9: Movement (MOVA) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $9.85 million.
  • May 11: Solayer (LAYER) to unlock 12.87% of its circulating supply worth $79.71 million.
  • May 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.82% of its circulating supply worth $62.09 million.
• Token Launches
  • May 2: Binance to delist Alpaca Finance (ALPACA), PlayDapp (PDA), Viberate (VIB), and Wing Finance (WING).
  • May 5: Sonic (S) to be listed on Kraken.

Conferences

CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

• May 6-7: Financial Times Digital Assets Summit (London)
• May 11-17: Canada Crypto Week (Toronto)
• May 12-13: Dubai FinTech Summit
• May 12-13: Filecoin (FIL) Developer Summit (Toronto)
• May 12-13: Latest in DeFi Research (TLDR) Conference (New York)
• May 12-14: ACI’s 9th Annual Legal, Regulatory, and Compliance Forum on Fintech & Emerging Payment Systems (New York)
• May 13: Blockchain Futurist Conference (Toronto)
• May 13: ETHWomen (Toronto)
• May 14-16: CoinDesk’s Consensus 2025 (Toronto)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• Memecoin discussions are rising, while interest in layer-1 and layer-2 tokens is declining, signaling a shift toward speculative trading behavior, according to a Santiment report on Thursday.
• Retail investors are embracing hype-driven buying, favoring short-term gains over fundamentals.
• Market timing may be off, as historically the best altcoin entry points occur when crowd sentiment is low — not when terms like “altseason” and “bull cycle” are trending, the report said.
• Mentions of “buying crypto” have spiked, especially on dips, suggesting widespread eagerness and potentially premature confidence.
• Overconfident markets often face sharp corrections, especially when traders expect nonstop gains.
• As May begins, it remains to be seen if this altcoin surge is sustainable or simply another hype-driven blip.

Derivatives Positioning

• BTC’s current ascent appears structurally fragile, with a -$30 million liquidity delta across the 1% order book despite a 2.7% price rise since the start of the month, CoinGlass data show.
• This reduction in top-of-book liquidity as the price climbs leaves a thinner order book with an increasing the risk of slippage and volatility if momentum stalls.
• Liquidation heatmaps reveal sizable clusters at $97.6K ($67 million) and $96.1K ($58 million), reinforcing these zones as potential inflection points for intraday, volatility-driven reversals or stop-driven extensions.
• Binance funding rates show a sharp divergence in sentiment across major tokens, with APT, TON, UNI and XRP hitting +10.95% APR, while USDE (-29.73%), BNB (-19.06%), and SUI (-10.26%) reflect more intensive short-side pressure, Velo data shows.
• The concentration of elevated funding among large caps indicates directional long bias, while deeply negative rates in select altcoins suggest either event-driven shorts or systematic derisking.
• Open-interest (OI) rotation is flowing into low-cap, niche assets; with PUNDIX (+191%) and HAEDAL (+157%) leading 24-hour OI gains, according to Velo data. As open interest broadens out, market sensitivity to catalysts may increase across low to mid-cap tokens.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 2.27% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $96,817.27 (24hrs: +0.54%)
• ETH is up 1.48% at $1,822.64 (24hrs: -0.82%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 1.39% at 2,781.37 (24hrs: -0.32%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 9 bps at 2.958%
• BTC funding rate is at -0.0093% (-10.2251% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.51% at 99.74
• Gold is up 0.62% at $3,258.47/oz
• Silver is unchanged at $32.38/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed +1.04% at 36,830.69
• Hang Seng closed +1.74% at 22,504.68
• FTSE is up 0.75% at 8,560.68
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.48% at 5,236.81
• DJIA closed on Thursday +0.21% at 40,752.96
• S&P 500 closed +0.63% at 5,604.14
• Nasdaq closed +1.52% at 17,710.74
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.19% at 24,795.55
• S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.25% at 2,523.42
• U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 8 bps at 4.23%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.47% at 5,649.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.33% at 19,935.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.47% at 41,045.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 64.85 (+0.16%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.1886 (-1.0%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 847 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $49.98
• Total Fees: 5.51 BTC / $533,450.65
• CME Futures Open Interest: 141,430 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 29.8 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 8.46%

Technical Analysis

• Ether has reclaimed its previous swing low, with the $1,750 level now acting as a key support zone.
• On the daily timeframe, price action is compressing between the 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages — a setup that often precedes a directional breakout.
• Assuming bitcoin remains in consolidation near its current resistance, ether has room to push higher, potentially retesting the prior range low around $2,100, which aligns with the 100-day EMA, adding further evidence for this as a target.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $381.6 (+0.39%), up 1.37% at $386.82 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $201.3 (-0.78%), up 0.56% at $202.42
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at $24.05 (+9.72%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $14.05 (+5.09%), down 0.14% at $14.03
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.77 (+7.32%), down 1.93% at $7.62
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.55 (+5.56%), up 0.58% at $8.60
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.67 (+6.12%), up 0.69% at $8.73
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.59 (+6.65%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $33.33 (+3.09%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $40.38 (+3.43%), up 4.95% at $42.38

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily net flow: $422.5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $39.53 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.15 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $6.5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $2.51 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.45 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• Data from BitcoinCounterFlow comparing BTC’s performance from the bottom of each of the last three cycles suggests the top isn’t in yet.
• If history is any guide, the current trajectory around day 700–800 implies we’re entering a phase that could develop into the steep rally seen in prior cycles.
• The smoother rise this time may be a reflection of the increased institutional participation in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

While You Were Sleeping

• Movement Labs Suspends Rushi Manche Amid Coinbase Delisting, Token-Dumping Scandal (CoinDesk): Co-founder Manche was suspended after Coinbase delisted MOVE following reports that a market maker tied to Web3Port dumped over 5% of the token’s supply, triggering a crash.
• China Is Considering Trade Talks With U.S., but It Has Conditions (The New York Times): China’s Commerce Ministry said it won’t enter trade talks unless U.S. tariffs are dropped, calling their removal the only way to demonstrate sincerity and rebuild trust.
• Metaplanet Issues $25M Bonds to Buy More Bitcoin (CoinDesk): EVO FUND purchased 3.6 billion yen ($24.8 million) of zero-coupon debt from Metaplanet, which intends to buy more bitcoin after recently exceeding 5,000 BTC.
• UK’s FCA Seeks Public and Industry Views on Crypto Regulation (CoinDesk): The Financial Conduct Authority is seeking feedback on staking, lending, intermediaries and decentralized finance.
• How China Is Quietly Diversifying From US Treasuries (Financial Times): China is reallocating reserves into gold, mortgage-backed securities and assets managed in places like Hong Kong, reducing reliance on dollar-denominated assets that could be sanctioned or frozen.
• Eurozone Inflation Holds Above Target as ECB Weighs Cuts (Bloomberg): Eurozone inflation held steady at 2.2% in April, defying expectations of a slowdown, while core inflation jumped to 2.7%.

In the Ether

By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

President Trump’s so-called Liberation Day has arrived, and markets are nervously awaiting developments on U.S. tariffs. Even within the administration, the mood appears far from optimistic.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik is reportedly in the crosshairs, with suggestions he may become the scapegoat for favoring overly aggressive tariffs if the U.S. were to head into a recession, according to The Independent, a U.K. online newspaper.

A recession looks likely according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which is projecting a first-quarter contraction of -3.7% for U.S. real GDP. That is a dramatic downward revision from earlier estimates: +3.9% two months ago, +2.3% one month ago and -1.8% just two weeks ago.

While Trump has yet to disclose which country the tariffs will target, an announcement is scheduled for after the stock market closes at 4 p.m.

Bitcoin (BTC), meanwhile, remains unfazed, trading little changed on the day and holding above $85,000. U.S. equities finished higher on Tuesday, although futures are pointing slightly negative heading into Wednesday.

Currently, bitcoin is 25% below its Jan. 20 all-time high of $109,000. This places it in the middle of the performance range of the “Magnificent 7” tech stocks. Here’s how they compare to their respective all-time highs: Apple is down 17%, Microsoft 22%, Amazon 24%, Meta 25%, Google 26%, NVIDIA 32% and Tesla 50%.

The cryptocurrency’s resilience stands out when compared to past cycles. In 2022, BTC fell 75% from its peak to a low of $15,500, more than twice as much as the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ)’s 34%. This year, bitcoin has dropped 30% versus 16% for QQQ — a relative drawdown of 1.87 times. This relative performance suggests bitcoin has become more resilient over time, even as volatility remains a defining trait.

Still, a lot hinges on the tariff announcement and how markets react. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
  • April 2, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing for marking up various measures, including H.R. 2392, the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy (STABLE) Act of 2025, and H.R. 1919, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. Livestream link.
  • April 2: XIONMarkets (XION) will have its mainnet launch.
  • April 5: The alleged birthday of Satoshi Nakamoto.
  • April 9, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing about how the U.S. securities laws could be updated to take into account digital assets. Livestream link.
• Macro
  • April 2, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics releases February industrial production data.
    • Industrial Production MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. 0%
    • Industrial Production YoY Est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 1.4%
  • April 2, 4:00 p.m.: Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs will get announced.
  • April 2, 4:30 p.m.: Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a speech titled “Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policymaking.” Livestream link.
  • April 3, 12:01 a.m.: The Trump administration’s 25% tariff on imported automobiles and certain parts announced March 26 become effective.
  • April 3, 12:30 p.m.: Fed Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech titled “U.S. Economic Outlook and Central Bank Communications.” Livestream link.
  • April 4, 11:25 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech titled “Economic Outlook.” Livestream link.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Yearn DAO is discussing a revised proposal to endorse and fund “Bearn,” a new sub-DAO for building DeFi products including a yield-backed stablecoin and a BGT liquid locker. The proposal seeks $200,000 for audit costs and $1 million in locked liquidity, offering 5% of BEARN tokens to the Yearn Treasury in return.
  • Lido DAO is discussing the re-endorsement of wstETH on Starknet as the canonical bridge endpoint following a completed migration from the legacy token.
  • April 2, 11 p.m.: Axie Infinity to host Atia’s Legacy Town Hall on the project co-founders’ vision for the forthcoming massive multiplayer online game.
  • April 2, 10 a.m.: The Graph to host a token API talk.
  • April 3, 9 a.m.: SafePal, Wallet Connect and Trader to host a monthly community livestream discussing monthly updates for the projects.
  • April 3, 2p.m.: Arbitrum to host an X Spaces session on real-world assets on Arbitrum.
  • April 3, 12 p.m.: Seamless Protocol, Morpho Labs and Gauntlet to host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.
  • April 7, 4 p.m.: Livepeer to host a monthly community call focused on governance, funding and the strategic direction of its on-chain treasury.
• Unlocks
  • April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $104.38 million.
  • April 5: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 3.25% of its circulating supply worth $61.86 million.
  • April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $10.29 million.
  • April 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $20.10 million.
  • April 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.87% of its circulating supply worth $59.94 million.
• Token Listings
  • April 4: Pintu (PTU), Spartan Protocol (SPARTA), Derby Stars (DSRUN), Veloce (VEXT), BOB, and Kryptonite (SEILOR) to be deslisted from Bybit.

Conferences

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• President Donald Trump’s TRUMP memecoin is set to unlock 40 million tokens — or 20% of the circulating supply — on April 17, according to Solana Floor.
• Token unlocks often lead to short-term price drops due to increased supply, as seen with other cryptocurrencies such as Aptos (APT), which fell 26% in 30 days after a June 2024 unlock.
• A similar pattern could emerge for TRUMP, which is currently priced just above $10.
• Memecoins can see higher selling pressure than utility projects because they rely heavily on sentiment, in this case to Trump’s political brand.
• However, if the president’s political influence continues to drive hype — potentially amplified by developments like Trump Media ETFs — the token might see buying activity after the unlock.
• That means investors looking to bet on TRUMP are likely to keep an eye on his public comments and statements about the memecoin specifically around the unlock date.

Derivatives Positioning

• Market stability failed to inspire bullish positioning, leaving perpetual funding rates for major tokens, including BTC and ETH, barely positive near annualized rates of 1% to 3%.
• Most major coins are exhibiting negative cumulative volume deltas, a sign of net selling pressure, casting a doubt on how long the market stability can last.
• In Deribit’s options market, BTC volatility smiles have shifted sharply toward lower strike put options, reaching levels not seen since the U.S. regional banking crisis of March 2023, according to data tracked by Block Scholes.
• Ether options are also exhibiting put skews.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 0.21% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $85,063.12 (24hrs: +1.19%)
• ETH is down 1.75% at $1,879.84 (24hrs: +0.48%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 0.56% at 2,559.88 (24hrs: -0.07%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 7 bps at 3.1%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0027% (2.9685% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.13% at 104.12
• Gold is up 1.4% at $3,162.70/oz
• Silver is up 1.79% at $34.77/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed +0.28% at 35,725.87
• Hang Seng closed unchanged at 23,202.53
• FTSE is down 0.57% at 8,585.55
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.47% at 5,295.55
• DJIA closed on Tuesday unchanged at 41,989.96
• S&P 500 closed +0.38% at 5,633.07
• Nasdaq closed +0.87% at 17,449.89
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.46% at 25,033.30
• S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.44% at 2,440.93
• U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 2 bps at 4.16%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% at 5,657.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.37% at 19,531.50
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.24% at 42,138.00

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 62.68 (0.21%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02211 (-1.16%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 819 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $47.62
• Total Fees: 4.35 BTC / $366,246
• CME Futures Open Interest: 135,350 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 27.0 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 7.66%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding market leaders bitcoin and ether.
• The value is holding on to a bullish trendline sloping upward from August and November lows.
• A strong bounce from the trendline would signal a resumption of the broader rally.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $306.02 (+6.16%), down 1.31% at $302in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $174.52 (1.33%), down 0.88% at $172.99
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$16.33 (+7.65%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.84 (+2.96%), down 1.01% at $11.72
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.54 (+5.9%), down 1.33% at $7.44
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8 (+10.5%), down 0.63% at $7.95
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.56 (+12.5%), down 1.46% at $7.45
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $13.67 (+7.05%), down 2.51% at $12.80
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $36.52 (+0.88%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $45.63 (-0.24%), up 2.98% at $46.99

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily net flow: -$157.8 million
• Cumulative net flows: $36.11 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.12 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: -$3.6 million
• Cumulative net flows: $2.42 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.41 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The chart shows technology stocks have fallen out of favor over the past four weeks.
• That helps explain the weakness in the crypto market.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

President Donald Trump ramped up the trade-war hyperbole, threatening to increase import tariffs levied on the EU and Canada if they keep on working to “do economic harm” to the U.S. after announcing a 25% tariff on vehicles and foreign-made auto parts.

Despite the threat, crypto markets remained stable, with bitcoin holding steady at about $87,500. Over 24 hours the largest cryptocurrency is down about 0.6% and the broader CoinDesk 20 Index some 2%.

The growing threats not only raise concerns about economic growth, but also widen the gap between the U.S. and Europe, whose leaders are meeting with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky today to work on long-term security guarantees. The summit comes after the U.S. persuaded Ukraine and Russia to agree to a Black Sea ceasefire.

Cryptocurrency prices are being influenced not only by macroeconomic factors, but also by the forthcoming expiry of around $15 billion worth of BTC and ETH options contracts on Friday. The uncertainty has stalled BTC’s price rally, even after video-games retailer GameStop moved to raise $1.3 billion to accumulate the cryptocurrency.

Still, the U.S. House of Representatives has released a bill that’s set to help reduce systemic risks associated with stablecoin usage. Blockchain development is also progressing steadily, with Ethereum’s final Pectra test going live on the Hoodi network.

Looking ahead, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee will today hold a hearing on the nomination of Paul Atkins — who holds up to $6 million in crypto-related assets — as the Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto:

March 27: Walrus (WAL) mainnet goes live.

April 1: Metaplanet (3350) 10-for-1 stock split becomes effective.

Macro

March 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases (Final) Q4 GDP data.

GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 3.1%

Core PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.2%

PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.4% vs. Prev. 1.5%

Real Consumer Spending QoQ Est. 4.2% vs. Prev. 3.7%

March 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended March 22.

Initial Jobless Claims Est. 225K vs. Prev. 223K

March 27, 10:00 a.m.: The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on the nomination of Paul Atkins to the chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Livesteam link.

March 27, 3:00 p.m.: Mexico’s central bank announces its interest rate decision.

Target Rate Est. 9% vs. Prev. 9.5%

March 28, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases February unemployment rate data.

Unemployment Rate Est. 6.8% vs. Prev. 6.5%

March 28, 8:00 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases February unemployment rate data.

Unemployment Rate Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.7%

March 28, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases January GDP data.

GDP MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%

March 28, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases February consumer income and expenditure data.

Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%

Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.6%

PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%

PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.5%

Personal Income MoM Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 0.9%

Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. -0.2%

April 2, 12:01 a.m.: The Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs plan, announced Feb. 13, takes effect alongside a 25% tariff on imported automobiles and certain parts announced March 26.

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

March 27: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-market, $-0.02

March 28: Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY), pre-market, C$0.38

Token Events

Governance votes & calls

DYdX DAO is discussing the allocation of $10 million to fund the most profitable traders on the platform in a bid to attract talent. The DAO is also voting on creating a new liquidity tier designed for “markets introduced through the Instant Market Listings” feature.

Venus DAO is discussing the potential acquisition of a 33% stake in Thena.fi for $4.5 million to position Venus to “build a comprehensive DeFi SuperApp on the BNB Chain.”

Balancer DAO is discussing the establishment of a Balancer Alliance Program, which would see the protocol share a portion of the revenue it generates with key ecosystem partners in the form of USDC as veBAL.

CoW DAO is discussing updating the score definition for buy orders after a Base network incident revealed that the current definition could lead to an excessive allocation of solver rewards.

March 27, 9 a.m.: PancakeSwap and EOS Network Foundation to host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.

March 27, 12 p.m.: Cardano Foundation to hold a livestream with its CTO breaking down the project’s roadmap.

March 27, 12 p.m.: Header to host a Community Call with support for Post-Quantum Cryptographic Algorithm, sponsored feels ,and AI tools on the agenda.

March 27., 1 p.m.: Alchemy Pay to host a Community AMA session.

March 28, 3 a.m: Ontology to hold a Weekly Community Update via X Spaces.

Unlocks

March 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.93% of its circulating supply worth $28.67 million.

April 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $178.46 million.

April 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 6.05% of its circulating supply worth $17.66 million.

April 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.77% of its circulating supply worth $17.63 million.

April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $144.79 million.

April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $11.74 million.

April 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $24.92 million.

Token Listings

March 27: Walrus (WAL) to be listed on Gate.io, KuCoin, Bluefin, MEXC, Bitget, and Bybit.

March 28: Binance to delist Aergo (AERGO).

March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.

Conferences

CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

Day 2 of 3: Real World Crypto Symposium 2025 (Sofia, Bulgaria)

March 27: Building Blocks (Tel Aviv)

March 27: Digital Euro Conference 2025 (Frankfurt)

March 27: Web3 Banking Symposium 2.0 (Lugano, Switzerland)

March 27: WIKI Finance EXPO Hong Kong 2025

Day 1 of 2: Money Motion 2025 (Zagreb, Croatia)

March 28: Solana APEX (Cape Town)

April 2-3: Southeast Asia Blockchain Week 2025 Main Conference (Bangkok)

April 2-5: ETH Bucharest Conference & Hackathon (Bucharest, Romania)

April 3-6: BitBlockBoom (Dallas)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

A viral AI art trend fueled by OpenAI’s new 4o model sparked a surge in Studio Ghibli-themed memecoins, blending nostalgia with cryptocurrency speculation as fans create Ghibli-style images and traders capitalize on the hype.

The ghiblification (GHIBLI) token, the largest, boasted a $21 million market cap and $70 million in trading volume within 24 hours driven by over 250,000 trades on the Ethereum and Solana blockchains.

The trend, marked by the #GhibliAI hashtag amassing millions of hits on X and Instagram, reflects internet culture’s love for humor and absurdity, attracting speculators with low-cost, high-volatility tokens.

Smaller Ghibli-inspired tokens like Ghilbi Doge, NoFace and Yutaro lag behind GHIBLI in trader interest, while the latter’s liquidity pool holds just over $330,000 in Solana’s SOL.

Derivatives Positioning

While BTC, ETH CME futures yields stopped falling early this month, there has been a noticeable lack of progress, particularly in the wake of continued corporate adoption of bitcoin. The divergence suggests sophisticated market players remain cautious.

BTC, ETH perpetual funding rates on offshore exchanges are barely positive, another sign of cautious sentiment.

TRX, XMR, TON and SUI are the only top 25 coins with positive net cumulative volume deltas for the past 24 hours. The positive value indicates net buying in the perpetual futures market.

BTC and ETH short-end options-based implied volatility indexes continue to drift lower, with investors still pricing bigger swings in ETH relative to bitcoin.

Deribit-listed options continue to show a bias for short duration puts in BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP.

Market Movements:

BTC is up 0.22% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $87,494.70 (24hrs: -0.86%)

ETH is up 0.69% at $2,025.47 (24hrs: -1.90%)

CoinDesk 20 is up 0.48% at 2,757.13 (24hrs: -2.19%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps at 2.97%

BTC funding rate is at 0.0087% (3.1744% annualized) on Binance

DXY is unchanged at 104.47

Gold is up 0.82% at $3,045.80/oz

Silver is up 1% at $34.37/oz

Nikkei 225 closed -0.6% at 37,799.97

Hang Seng closed +0.41% at 23,578.80

FTSE is down 0.66% at 8,632.24

Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.7% at 5,373.68

DJIA closed on Wednesday -0.31% at 42,454.79

S&P 500 closed -1.12% at 5,712.20

Nasdaq closed -2.04% at 17,899.02

S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.7% at 25,161.10

S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.83% at 2,460.26

U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 4 bps at 4.4%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 5,763.25

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 20,112.25

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.16% at 42,815.00

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 61.69 (-0.14%)

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02317 (0.17%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 838 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $49.19

Total Fees: 9.67 BTC / $846,444x

CME Futures Open Interest: 144,470 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 28.8 oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 8.17%

Technical Analysis

The share price of bitcoin-holder Strategy (MSTR) has risen past $320, confirming a bullish double bottom breakout.

The pattern suggests potential for a rally for the Nasdaq-listed shares to resistance at $410.

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $329.31 (-3.66%), up 0.48% at $330.89 in pre-market

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $193.95 (-5.03%), up 0.81% at $195.52

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$18.08 (-3.06%)

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $13.79 (-3.23%), up 0.51% at $13.86

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.9 (-7.17%), up 1.01% at $7.98

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $7.63 (-11.89%), up 1.97% at $7.78

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.12 (-6.99%), up 0.62% at $8.17

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.32 (-8.5%)

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $39.57 (-6.63%)

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $50 (-10.78%), up 0.6% at $50.30

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net flow: $89.6 million

Cumulative net flows: $36.33 billion

Total BTC holdings ~ 1,115 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: -$5.9 million

Cumulative net flows: $2.43 billion

Total ETH holdings ~ 3.406 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

AI is the worst-performing crypto market sector of the past 24 hours.

The dire performance is consistent with losses in AI-related stocks on Wall Street supposedly triggered by Microsoft abandoning data center projects set to use 2 gigawatts of electricity in the U.S. and Europe.

While You Were Sleeping

Dogecoin Gains, XRP Slumps as Trump Warns of ‘Far Larger’ Tariffs (CoinDesk): President Donald Trump threatened Canada and the EU with higher tariffs if they collaborated and harmed the U.S. economy. His post on Truth Social damped early positive sentiment in crypto markets.

Rattled by Trump, America’s Allies Shift to Defense Mode (The New York Times): Trump’s 25% auto tariff alarmed allies including Canada, Japan and Germany, who see it as a breach of decades-old economic and defense partnerships with the U.S.

BlackRock Expands Digital Asset Team, Adds Four High-Level Roles (CoinDesk): The asset manager advertised for a director of digital assets, director of regulatory affairs, vice president for digital asset and ETF legal counsel, and associate for digital assets.

Robinhood, Moving Beyond Meme Stocks, Now Wants to Be Your Bank (Bloomberg): Later this year in the U.S., Robinhood Gold subscribers will gain access to savings and checking accounts offering high yields, same-day cash delivery and services like estate planning.

Donald Trump’s Cuts to US Government Raise Worries Over Economic Data Quality (Financial Times): Economists say the Department of Government Efficiency could undermine the quality of U.S. economic data by weakening agencies behind key indicators like inflation and jobs reports.

Studio Ghibli Craze Inspires Memecoins on Ethereum, Solana After OpenAI’s 4o Release (CoinDesk): AI-generated art styled after Studio Ghibli films has gone viral, sparking the creation of Ghibli-themed cryptocurrencies, with ghiblification (GHIBLI) reaching a market cap of $21 million.

In the Ether

Cryptocurrency prices are seeing a slight recovery from Tuesday’s decline with bitcoin (BTC) gaining 0.5% and the broader CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) advancing 0.8% in the last 24 hours.

The drop came before the Federal Reserve’s policy decision due later today. Interest rates are forecast to remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, so investors will instead be focused on macro outlook with a potential end to quantitative tightening (QT) in sight.

Since mid-2022, the Fed has been slowly shrinking its balance sheet, which inflated to $9 trillion to support the economy during the COVID era. An earlier-than-expected end to quantitative tightening, which has so far reduced the Fed’s balance sheet to $6.7 trillion, could boost risk assets like bitcoin.

An end to QT would see the Fed stop withdrawing liquidity from the market, potentially weakening the dollar and making crypto assets more attractive. Traders on prediction market Polymarket are essentially certain an end to QT will be announced before May.

Another boost for risk assets came from the Bank of Japan (BOJ), which held its benchmark interest rate unchanged, despite growing inflation in the country. The decision keeps Japanese bond yields steady, limiting the attractiveness of these assets and attracting less capital to traditional markets. Still bitcoin failed to respond.

Bitcoin’s appeal as an alternative store of value has been seeing growing recognition. The number of public companies buying bitcoin has more than doubled to 80 from 33 in just two years, according to data from River. Strategy, the largest corporate holder of BTC, has even detailed plans to sell $500 million in preferred stock to buy more.

Yet, growing tariffs threats have reignited inflationary risks as economic growth stagnates. The result could be stagflation, a situation that wouldn’t please market participants. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto:

March 20: Pascal hard fork network upgrade goes live on the BNB Smart Chain (BSC) mainnet.

March 21, 1:00 p.m.: The SEC’s Crypto Task Force hosts a roundtable, open to the public, that will focus on the definition of a security.

March 24 (before market open): Bitcoin miner CleanSpark (CLSK) will join the S&P SmallCap 600 index.

March 24, 11:00 a.m.: Bugis network upgrade goes live on Enjin Matrixchain mainnet.

March 25: The Mimir upgrade goes live on Chromia (CHR) mainnet.

Macro

March 19, 2:00 p.m.: The Federal Reserve announces its interest-rate decision. The FOMC press conference is likely to be live-streamed 30 minutes later.

Fed Funds Interest Rate Est. 4.5% vs. Prev. 4.5%

March 19, 3:00 p.m.: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census releases GDP data.

Full Year GDP Growth (2024) Prev. -1.6%

GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q4) Prev. 3.9%

GDP Growth Rate YoY(Q4) Est. 1.7% vs. Prev. -2.1%

March 19, 5:30 p.m.: The Central Bank of Brazil announces its interest-rate decision.

Selic Rate Est. 14.25% vs. Prev. 13.25%

March 20, 3:00 a.m.: The U.K.’s Office for National Statistics releases January employment data.

Unemployment Rate Est. 4.4% vs. Prev. 4.4%

March 20, 8:00 a.m.: The Bank of England announces its interest-rate decision.

Bank Rate Est. 4.5% vs. Prev. 4.5%

March 20, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases employment data for the week ended March 15.

Initial Jobless Claims Est. 224K vs. Prev. 220K

Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1890K vs. Prev. 1870K

March 20, 3:00 p.m.: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census releases Q4 employment data.

Unemployment Rate Prev. 6.9%

March 20, 7:30 p.m.: Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications releases February consumer price index (CPI) data.

Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 3.2%

Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.5%

Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4%

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

March 27: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-market, $-0.02

March 28: Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY), pre-market, C$0.38

Token Events

Governance votes & calls

Arbitrum DAO is voting on registering the “Sky Custom Gateway contracts” in the “Router contracts” to enable users to bridge USDS and sUSDS through the official Arbitrum Bridge UI.

Frax DAO is voting on introducing the WisdomTree Government Money Market Digital Fund (WTGXX) as an on-chain reserve for Frax USD.

March 21, 11:30 a.m.: Flare to host an X Spaces session on Flare 2.0.

Unlocks

March 21: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.39% of circulating supply worth $14.16 million.

March 23: Metars Genesis (MRS) to unlock 11.87% of its circulating supply worth $146.8 million.

March 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.93% of its circulating supply worth $28.22 million.

April 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $150.22 million.

April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.7% of its circulating supply worth $118.05 million.

April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $12.3 million.

Token Listings

March 19: Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) and DuckChain (DUCK) to be listed on Kraken.

March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.

Conferences

CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.

Day 2 of 3: Digital Asset Summit 2025 (New York)

Day 2 of 3: Fintech Americas Miami 2025

Day 1 of 2: Next Block Expo (Warsaw)

March 24-26: Merge Buenos Aires

March 25-26: PAY360 2025 (London)

March 25-27: Mining Disrupt (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)

March 26: Crypto Assets Conference (Frankfurt)

March 26: DC Blockchain Summit 2025 (Washington)

March 26-28: Real World Crypto Symposium 2025 (Sofia, Bulgaria)

March 27: Building Blocks (Tel Aviv)

March 27: Digital Euro Conference 2025 (Frankfurt)

March 27: WIKI Finance EXPO Hong Kong 2025

March 27-28: Money Motion 2025 (Zagreb, Croatia)

March 28: Solana APEX (Cape Town)

April 2-3: Southeast Asia Blockchain Week 2025 Main Conference (Bangkok)

April 3-6: BitBlockBoom (Dallas)

April 6-9: Hong Kong Web3 Festival

April 8-10: Paris Blockchain Week

April 15-16: BUIDL Asia 2025 (Seoul)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

More than 590 new tokens were issued on the Tron blockchain-based SunPump today, marking the highest issuance in four months and spurring Tron founder Justin Sun to post “tron meme szn” on X.

Sun later posted that trading fees will be “subsidized,” adding that every memecoin would be “back on Tron.”

SunPump allows instant trading without initial liquidity seeding, fueling the frenzy. It has pocketed $5.74 million in fees in the past 24 hours, reaching levels not seen since August.

Derivatives Positioning

Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) on centralized exchanges has risen above $55 billion, up 32% since Feb. 23, with OI in SOL and ETH futures remaining mostly stagnant. The market is clearly biased toward the leading cryptocurrency.

Positioning in the BTC CME futures, however, remains light, near February lows.

NEAR, TON and TRX are leading growth in perpetual futures open interest in the past 24 hours. NEAR stands out with negative cumulative volume delta, pointing to net selling.

Deribit-listed BTC and ETH options continue to show bias for short and near-dated protective puts.

Market Movements:

BTC is up 1.84% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $83,576.60 (24hrs: +0.88%)

ETH is up 2.04% at $1,945.99 (24hrs: +2.6%)

CoinDesk 20 is up 2.2% at 2,624.87 (24hrs: +1.6%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 2.96%

BTC funding rate is at 0.0071% (7.74% annualized) on Binance

DXY is down 0.32% at 103.57

Gold is unchanged at $3,030.30/oz

Silver is down 1.24% at $33.70/oz

Nikkei 225 closed -0.25% at 37,751.88

Hang Seng closed +0.12% at 24,771.14

FTSE is down 0.15% at 8,691.31

Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.15% at 5,493.38

DJIA closed on Tuesday +0.62% at 41,581.31

S&P 500 closed -1.07% at 5,614.66

Nasdaq closed -1.71% at 17,504.12

S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.32% at 24,706.07

S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 2,476.87

U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is unchanged at 4.29%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.23% at 5,682.25

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.32% at 19,764.25

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.16% at 42,004.00

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 61.62 (0.27%)

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02329 (-0.30%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 773 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $47.30

Total Fees: 5.13 BTC / $428,677

CME Futures Open Interest: 154,060 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 27.2 oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 7.71%

Technical Analysis

BTC’s recent bounce toward the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) is accompanied by a declining trend in daily trading volumes.

The discrepancy raises a question mark on the sustainability of the recovery.

Plus, the 50-day SMA has crossed below the 100-day SMA, a bearish signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside.

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $283.19 (-3.77%), up 1.95% at $288.47 in pre-market

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $181.14 (-4.14%), up 1.36% at $183.60

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$17.09 (-1.5%)

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.07 (-6.94%), up 1.74% at $12.28

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.40 (-4.64%), up 1.22% at $7.49

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.02 (-8.45%)

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.59 (-6.53%), up 1.98% at $7.74

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.25 (-7.29%)

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $35.49 (-1.5%), up 9.33% at $38.80

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $30.26 (-6.46%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net flow: $209.1 million

Cumulative net flows: $35.87 billion

Total BTC holdings ~ 1,116 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: -$52.8 million

Cumulative net flows: $2.47 billion

Total ETH holdings ~ 3.472 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

Programmable blockchain Solana leads other platforms with the highest number of daily active addresses and daily transactions despite a slowdown in the memecoin trading frenzy.

The data supports the bull case for the blockchain’s SOL token versus native coins of other smart-contract blockchains.

While You Were Sleeping

Investors Pump $22B Into Short-Term U.S. Debt to Ride Out Market ‘Storm’ (Financial Times): Investors, wary of Donald Trump’s economic policies, are moving into haven assets, with short-term Treasury funds seeing $21.7 billion in net inflows from early January to March 14.

Bank of Japan Keeps Interest Rates Steady, Warns of Trump Tariff Risks (Reuters): The central bank held its benchmark rate at 0.5%, as economists forecast. Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that future rate policy is likely to reflect the effects of tariffs imposed by the U.S.

Drone Strike Sets Fire to Russia Oil Depot Near Damaged CPC Link (Bloomberg): Despite a proposal discussed Tuesday by Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to halt attacks on energy infrastructure, a key Russian oil depot was struck by a Ukrainian drone early Wednesday.

Raydium’s RAY Jumps 13% as DEX Reveals Own Token Issuance Platform (CoinDesk): The Solana-powered decentralized exchange Raydium is reportedly planning to launch a platform named LaunchLab to increase revenue and expand its user base.

Untangled Finance Brings Moody’s Credit Scores On-Chain (CoinDesk): The proof of concept system, powered by Polygon’s Amoy testnet, uses zero-knowledge proof technology to securely publish, update and withdraw credit ratings on-chain, protecting proprietary information.

North Dakota Senate Passes Crypto ATM Bill to Create Licensing Regime (CoinDesk): House Bill 1447 requires crypto ATM operators to issue fraud warnings, obtain money transmitter licenses, use blockchain analytics software for fraud detection, submit quarterly reports and appoint a compliance officer.

In the Ether