Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, argued that the bull run remains in its early stages based on comprehensive economic indicators.

In a Sept. 8 analysis shared via X, Bittel counters widespread “peak cycle” sentiment in crypto markets, challenging late-cycle narratives by examining traditional economic markers.

Peak sentiment

Classic late-cycle economies typically feature extreme manufacturing sentiment with ISM readings around 60, elevated services sentiment, high homebuilder confidence, strong consumer and worker confidence, bullish investor sentiment, and accelerating wage growth.

Bittel said current data paints a different picture. When scoring inputs from ISM, NAHB, NFIB, BLS, AAII, and The Conference Board into a composite sentiment measure, US economic sentiment remains “very subdued” and far from euphoric late-cycle extremes.

He stated:

“This does not look like an above-trend late-cycle economy. It looks much more like an early-cycle economy trying to build momentum.”

Central bank policy provides additional support for this thesis. Nearly 90% of central banks globally are cutting rates, creating what Bittel describes as “extraordinary” conditions and “a massive tailwind for the business cycle” on a forward-looking basis.

Oil prices reinforce the early-cycle argument, trading nearly 20% below trend and continuing to fall. This represents easing financial conditions rather than the tightening typically associated with late-cycle dynamics.

Historically, oil prices running 50% above trend have signaled recession since the early 1970s.

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Bull cycle in early stages

Temporary Help Services data shows “early-cycle vibes” with rising growth from profoundly negative levels, indicating economic recovery rather than rollover.

According to Bittel, late-cycle periods typically feature positive year-on-year growth that’s slowing, reflecting an overheated economy losing steam.

He attributes rising unemployment to the lagging nature of jobs data, calling it “a six-month look in the rear-view mirror.”

Businesses first increase overtime hours and temporary workers before committing to expensive full-time hires with benefits and pensions.

Bittel also frames current conditions as “early-cycle” transitioning to “mid-cycle,” describing the progression as “Macro Spring” (growth up, inflation down), moving toward “Macro Summer” (growth up, inflation up).

He concluded that this macro perspective challenges the prevailing crypto market sentiment, which suggests that the bull cycle has peaked. Instead, he assessed that the current economic conditions support continued expansion rather than contraction.

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Bitcoin Decay Channel Hints At $200K–$290K Top, Tips Cycle To Extend To 2026

In an X post on September 5, a Bitcoin researcher with the X username Sminston With shares some important data from the Bitcoin Decay Channel on a potential peak price for the current market cycle.

For context, the Bitcoin Decay Channel is a long-term logarithmic regression model that attempts to map Bitcoin’s price cycles, specifically its historical peaks and bottoms, within statistically derived boundaries. This pricing model shows that while Bitcoin follows boom-and-bust patterns, its growth rate decays over time as each cycle delivers smaller percentage gains than the last.

Notably, data from the Bitcoin Decay channel chart shows the premier cryptocurrency is steadily climbing within the 0.05 quantile support and upper bound resistance lines, with oscillations that mark historical overheated zones. The embedded oscillator suggests BTC is not yet at a euphoric peak, leaving room for further upside before a long-term top forms.

Based on more data, Sminston With explains that the present Bitcoin market cycle could see a price top between late 2025 and late 2026. If Bitcoin peaks in December 2025, the price range would sit between $205,000 and $230,000.  However, should the cycle extend into 2026, projections rise incrementally, i.e. $208,000-$235,000 by Jan 2026, $219,000–$250,000 by April 2026, $230,000-$265,000 by July 2026, $243,000-$282,000 by October 2026, and as high as $250,000–$292,000 by year-end 2026.

Regardless of which price top scenario, the Bitcoin Decay Channel presents a potential peak zone between $205,000 and $292,000 within the next 12-15 months. This presents a possible price gain of 86% in the base case and 167% in a bull case scenario.

Bitcoin Price Outlook

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $110,900, reflecting a 0.45% price increase in the past day. Meanwhile, weekly gains are now up by 2.89% showing a moderate recovery. Interestingly, Coincodex analysts are predicting the premier cryptocurrency to maintain this rebound, rising to $121,276 in five days. With a market cap of $2.2 trillion, Bitcoin remains the largest currency and fifth largest in the world. 

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Bitcoin may be demonstrating a slight rebound from its recent downward trend, which began after it hit a new all-time high, but discussions about a possible cycle top are intensifying within the community. While this discussion is accompanied by speculations about this bull cycle nearing its end, an analyst has highlighted a key metric that shows that the cycle could end sooner than anticipated.

Historic Fractals Flashes Bitcoin Bull Cycle End

After dropping hard, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $112,000 price mark once again, suggesting renewed momentum fueled by bulls. In the meantime, Joao Wedson, a market expert and founder of Alphractal, has revealed that BTC’s price is once again drawing parallel to past fractal patterns, which is raising questions about whether the current bull cycle is nearing its peak.

Although some contend that macroeconomic tailwinds and robust institutional demand might prolong the current bull run, fractal indications signal caution. Tracking long-term market trends, Wedson outlined that the ongoing cycle is extremely close to its end based on past patterns. 

In the X post, Wedson recalled his 2024 prediction where he pointed out that October 2025 could mark the completion of a fascinating Bitcoin fractal cycle. Should this forecast play out, it would mark the formal end of this chapter in Bitcoin’s history within the month.

Based on this trend, BTC has only a little over one month left before the bull run stops in this cycle. However, the expert believes there might still be just enough time for Bitcoin to fall to around $100,000 before soaring to over $140,000 in the same time frame.

The cycle may come to an end in October, but what really matters is whether this fractal will remain reliable in light of heavy speculation around the Exchange Traded-Funds (ETFs) and growing institutional demand.

Regardless of the fractal readings, whether the four-year cycle is over and whether Bitcoin will continue to increase indefinitely, or if 2025 marks the final breath before a sharp correction, remains Wedson’s main focus. This notion will be validated with prices potentially dropping below the $50,000 price level in the 2026 bear market.

Musk’s Suggestion Toward The Next Bear Market Phase

Wedson has pointed to the recent suggestion from Tesla’s CEO, Elon Musk, about US President Donald Trump triggering a bear market in Q4 2025, which is adding to the intrigue. According to the on-chain expert, Musk’s suggestion is not one to dismiss lightly, considering Trump’s position as the second most influential figure in the crypto sector.

Highlighting the importance of this statement, Wedson has drawn attention to the 2021 cycle, where Musk somehow foresaw Bitcoin’s precise peak at $69,000 months ahead of time with a single cryptic post. 

While these bold predictions and trends seem highly likely to occur, the expert warned that they are just theories. He added that nobody might really know what is going to happen next except Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous founder of BTC.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

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Economist Alex Krüger dismissed concerns about the crypto bull cycle ending, arguing that widespread bearish sentiment creates a contrarian buying opportunity as markets prepare for recovery.

In an Aug. 30 X post, Krüger noted that “most crypto charts now look so broken and bearish that is bullish,” citing significant long liquidations as evidence of capitulation.

The economist positioned bullishly for the coming week after experiencing losses earlier in the trading session.

Krüger observed that the recent market decline primarily affected Bitcoin and Ethereum, while altcoins stopped crashing earlier in the session. He added that such divergence often signals upcoming strength,

He emphasized that optimal buying opportunities emerge “when everybody is panicking, and not when we are all celebrating.”

The economist expects market volatility to persist until the Federal Reserve’s next meeting, noting that a rate cut remains incompletely priced into current valuations. Even with potential downside risks, Krüger expressed “extreme confidence that this is not the end of the cycle.”

No blow-off tops for now

When questioned about the longevity of the cycle without a blow-off top, Krüger explained his “super cycle” thesis. This framework envisions key assets continuing higher with “smaller dips and a lower slope” rather than traditional manic runs followed by major corrections.

Krüger does not anticipate a blow-off top in 2025, citing insufficient conditions for major manic moves except possibly for Solana due to accumulating demand.

Furthermore, he projected that changes in the Federal Reserve’s composition in 2026 could trigger the next major bull market peak.

Contrary to bearish commentators who suggest excessive optimism requires crushing, Krüger assessed the current sentiment as balanced, with both bullish and bearish perspectives fairly represented.

‘Statistical nonsense’

He dismissed September’s bearish seasonality as “statistical nonsense” from pattern-seeking behavior rather than meaningful market conditions. He expects trading to alternate between long and short liquidations until Fed policy decisions establish a clear trend.

While acknowledging that a 25 basis point cut would not surprise markets, he questioned whether it could serve as a catalyst that may trigger the blow-off top that many analysts predict.

Krüger then highlighted options skew data showing puts trading at premiums to calls, indicating fear-driven positioning. This technical setup, combined with liquidation-driven selling pressure, creates conditions favoring contrarian positioning.

The economist’s analysis suggests that the current market weakness represents temporary volatility rather than a structural breakdown, positioning the market for recovery as liquidation waves clear weak hands.

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Bitcoin’s red month is almost here, and as we approach yet another September, is it inevitable that prices will dwindle? Let’s take a look at some of the reasons the ninth month of the year is historically bad for Bitcoin.

Why September is historically Bitcoin’s red month

Since 2013, September has proven to be a challenging month for Bitcoin, with losses in eight of the last 11 years. That could be because retail investors typically take profits after summer rallies or even crypto to cover their fall expenses, like tuition fees and tax planning.

Bitcoin’s red month may also be something of a self-fulfilling prophecy as traders expect red candles and act more defensively, pulling the market down further. Perspective here is important, as most September pullbacks have been modest.

The month typically marks a local bottom, after which Bitcoin often rebounds strongly into ‘Uptober’ as Q4 historically brings recovery and, in even massive rallies. In October 2020, for example, Bitcoin surged from around $10,800 at the start of the month to over $13,800 by the end, marking a gain of more than 27%.

August recap: all-time highs and whale sightings

August 2025 was dramatic by any measure. Bitcoin surged to an all-time high of $124,533 on August 14, only to tumble 11% to lows hovering around $110,000 just two weeks later.

Nearly $200 billion in market value evaporated, with a single event triggering the drop: a previously dormant whale that sold ~24,000 BTC, pushing the spot price below $109,000 and sparking the largest liquidation cascade of the year.

Almost $900 million in derivative positions were wiped out, 90% being bullish longs, with $150 million in BTC and $320M in ETH liquidated. Ethereum showed relative strength, remaining above its 100-day moving average even with an 8% decline.

The recent weakness wasn’t just about technicals or sentiment. Spot and derivatives market order books remained thin, so any major sell (like the whale dump) was enough to amplify price volatility.

Meanwhile, on-chain data in late August showed tepid activity and reduced inflows, further weakening bid support.

Macroeconomic uncertainty also continues to be a headwind. With the U.S. Federal Reserve’s September policy moves in focus, traders are pricing in both risk of erratic moves and potential for renewed optimism if macro signals, like a rate cut, turn favorable.

Preparing for September: scenarios and signals

Crypto trader Cas Abbé outlined three possible scenarios for Bitcoin as September approaches. In his primary “Range & Repair” scenario (40% probability), Bitcoin is expected to trade sideways between $110K and $120K for most of the month, as excess leverage is reduced and institutional investors gradually step in to accumulate. Such a consolidation would create a healthier base for a potential Q4 rally.

In the “Second Flush” case (35% probability), if Bitcoin drops below $110K, a further wave of liquidations could ensue, driving the price into the high $100Ks and erasing leftover leveraged positions. Historically, these kinds of corrections often precede a strong bottom.

Conversely, the “Quick Reclaim” scenario (25% probability) envisions institutions buying aggressively, enabling BTC to rapidly reclaim the $117K–$118K range and triggering an earlier return of bullish sentiment.

Throughout September, Abbé suggests traders closely monitor several on-chain and macro signals; notably, options market activity leading up to the September 27 expiry could offer valuable insights into positioning and sentiment.

Whether Bitcoin’s red month will turn green this year remains to be seen, but with thin liquidity, heightened volatility, and institutional buyers waiting in the wings, September may offer both risks and opportunities this year.

Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase after reaching $124,500 earlier this month and retracing below the $115,000 mark. The sharp move higher followed by weeks of sideways action has left the market in a state of uncertainty, with traders watching closely for the next decisive move. For many analysts, this consolidation is not a sign of weakness but rather a natural pause before the next leg higher.

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A push above the all-time high would be the clearest confirmation that the next wave of growth has begun. Momentum, however, remains dependent on whether buyers can reclaim lost ground and sustain pressure against resistance levels. Despite short-term caution, onchain signals suggest the broader cycle is still building toward expansion.

According to key data shared by CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin Composite Probability points to an early accumulation phase. Historically, such phases occur before major breakouts, when patient investors quietly build positions while price consolidates. This indicator aligns with the idea that the market is resetting before another surge.

Bitcoin Market Structure Points To Early Accumulation

According to top analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s current cycle can be broken down into clear phases of accumulation and distribution. The index highlights two major accumulation points: the first in March 2023, when Bitcoin traded around $22,000, and the second in August–September 2023, near the $29,000 level. These zones marked periods when long-term holders and new entrants quietly built positions before the next leg upward.

Following these accumulation phases, Adler identifies five distribution waves where profit-taking dominated: first between $34,000 and $44,000, then at $62,000, followed by $90,000, $109,000, and most recently at $118,000. Each wave represented a step higher in the market structure, but also a point where sellers gradually released supply back into the market.

Currently, CryptoQuant’s composite places Bitcoin at a Probability of 38% with a Min-Max of 31%, which he defines as the “repair zone.” This phase, also referred to as digestion or base formation, reflects early accumulation without yet confirming an upward reversal. In other words, while the groundwork for a new rally may be forming, conviction from buyers has not fully returned.

For investors, this repair zone carries important implications. Historically, such phases have preceded new bullish waves, offering opportunities for those willing to accumulate before momentum shifts. As Bitcoin consolidates below its highs, Adler suggests that the market may be quietly preparing for continuation — a reminder that consolidation often sets the stage for the next decisive move.

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Testing Pivotal Level As Downtrend Extends

Bitcoin is trading around $109,800 after another sharp drop, reinforcing the selling pressure that has weighed on price action throughout August. The 4-hour chart highlights BTC’s continued struggle to regain momentum following repeated rejections near the $123,000 resistance zone. Each attempt to push higher has been met with heavy supply, leaving the market to trend lower in a series of lower highs and lower lows.

Currently, BTC sits just above the $110,000 mark, a level acting as short-term support. However, the broader structure remains bearish, with price trading below the 50-day ($112,725), 100-day ($115,023), and 200-day ($115,831) moving averages. These technical levels now serve as overhead resistance, further complicating the path for bulls to stage a meaningful recovery.

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If Bitcoin fails to hold the $110,000 support, the next downside target lies near $108,000, with a deeper correction potentially extending toward $106,000. Conversely, a bounce from current levels would require reclaiming $112,000 to ease immediate pressure, while a decisive move above $115,000 would be essential to shift momentum back in favor of buyers.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

The higher-timeframe momentum gauges for Dogecoin are quietly resetting, and two widely followed chartists say the setup that preceded DOGE’s biggest advances is close to reappearing.

In a new monthly chart, Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) stacks three market cycles and highlights a repeating structure: long, descending consolidations that resolve into impulsive breakouts, followed by measured Fibonacci 1.618 extension targets penciled far above the range.

One Trigger Could Ignite Dogecoin’s Cycle Surge

The present cycle has already cleared its multi-month falling wedge on the 1-month chart and, critically, completed a clean throwback: price pushed through the descending trendline, retested it from above, and turned higher, converting former resistance into support. On Kevin’s canvas, DOGE trades in the ~$0.23 area on the monthly scale, sitting beneath layered horizontal supply bands but above the wedge ceiling that capped it through the consolidation.

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Momentum is the hinge of Kevin’s thesis. “Anytime we saw Monthly Stoch RSI crosses on #ogecoin outside of the bear market along with an uptrending Monthly RSI ultimately lead to massive rallies to the upside,” he writes. He adds that “the goal is to get the StochRSI to cross the 20 level and show follow through as anything below that level is a sign of weak momentum. Currently crossing to the upside and at the 13 level.”

His lower panel draws a rising diagonal on the 1-month RSI—explicitly labeled “Higher Lows on 1M RSI”—to underscore that longer-term momentum troughs have been stepping up even as price coiled inside the wedge.

Kevin also reiterates the inter-market backdrop he’s watching: “If BTC can move higher and not putter out on us and we ultimately get ETH into price discovery with a dropping BTC Dominance then like I have said before DOGE’s biggest move of the cycle is likely. Just need a little more time and for BTC and the macro to support the move. That’s the reality not engagement farming hopium.”

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With the structural breakout and retest in hand, the remaining confirmation on his checklist is mechanical—see the monthly StochRSI reclaim and hold above 20 while the monthly RSI preserves its pattern of higher lows.

On targets, Kevin has previously mapped an aggressive trio of Fibonacci extensions above the last cycle’s peak: 1.618 at $3.97, 1.65 at $4.33, and 1.703 at $5.00. In prior cycles on the same template, wedge resolutions were followed by vertical expansion toward comparable 1.618 objectives; these three levels now serve as forward waypoints should trend acceleration resume.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis For DOGE

A complementary, mid-cycle lens from Cantonese Cat (@cantonmeow) uses 2-week candles with Ichimoku Cloud to track the transition. “It’s doing more or less what I thought it would do from 2 months ago,” he notes, “where it bounced off the cloud, reclaiming Tenkan (blue line) as support, and is trying to launch itself above the green Ichimoku cloud on the right.”

In Ichimoku terms, that sequence—cloud bounce, Tenkan regain, then an attempt to clear the top of the forward green cloud—aligns with a shift from corrective to trending conditions on the 2-week timeframe and dovetails with Kevin’s higher-timeframe momentum trigger.

Taken together, the two studies narrow the focus to a clear condition set. Tactically, the 2-week chart is pressing the cloud top after reclaiming the Tenkan as support. And cyclically, the 1-month StochRSI is curling up from ~13 toward the threshold Kevin considers decisive at 20 while the 1-month RSI maintains a series of higher lows. If those momentum thresholds are secured against a supportive majors tape—firmer BTC, ETH in discovery, and declining BTC dominance—the Fibonacci extensions at $3.97, $4.33, and $5.00 could be DOGE’s price targets for this cycle.

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.223.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin investors with long-term positions are realizing profits at levels not seen in nearly a decade, according to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode.

Data from the firm shows that long-term holders have realized roughly 2.37 million BTC in profit during the ongoing 2024–2025 cycle. At current prices, that equates to about $260.7 billion.

This is the highest realized profit since the 2016–2017 bull run, when long-term investors booked gains of approximately 3.93 million BTC.

Glassnode noted that the sharp increase in realized gains illustrates growing sell-side pressure. The firm suggested that investors appear to capitalize on Bitcoin’s recent rally by reducing their exposure to the top crypto after months of sustained upward momentum.

Over the past year, Bitcoin has steadily climbed to new highs, peaking at $124,167 on Aug. 14, according to CryptoSlate’s data. The asset was trading at $110,761 at press time, down nearly 11% from that record.

This pullback suggests that profit-taking has become widespread, consistent with prior cycles, in which strong rallies were often followed by quieter, less aggressive phases of market activity.