Key points:

• Bitcoin nears three-week highs as US CPI data matches expectations.

• Plenty of market participants see Bitcoin heading higher as aresult, perhaps after a dip to trap late longs.

• CPI has seen BTC price fakeouts in recent months.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw telltale volatility at Thursday’s Wall Street open as US macro data furthered interest-rate cut odds.

CPI bullseye sees calls for Bitcoin going “higher”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD spiking to $114,731.

The August print of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in as expected, complementing a marked cooling of the Producer Price Index (PPI) the day prior.

While CPI was at its highest since January, the headline figure was instead initial jobless claims, which saw their largest numbers since October 2021 at 263,000 versus 235,000 expected.

Weekly jobless claims just hit 263,000. That’s the highest weekly number since October 2021. pic.twitter.com/5hoLBpNCEM

— Josh Schafer (@_JoshSchafer) September 11, 2025

Amid ongoing concerns about labor market weakness, bets of the Fed cutting rates at its Sept. 17 meeting only strengthened after the CPI release, with markets even seeing an 11% chance of the cut being more than the minimum 0.25%.

“Markets are now pricing-in 75 basis points of rate cuts by year-end,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in a follow-up thread on X. 

“While CPI inflation continues to rise, the labor market is simply too weak to ignore. Next week will be a big week.”

Crypto commentators saw the case for higher prices next as Bitcoin passed $114,500 for the first time since Aug. 24.

“PPI much lower than expected, CPI as expected,” popular trader Jelle responded in an X post. 

“Conclusion: Inflation not as bad as expected – bring on the rate cut later this month. News now behind us, time to resume the scheduled programme: higher.”

BTC price risks repeating US inflation data trap

BTC price forecasts also stressed the importance of recent support reclaims.

Related: Bitcoin price can hit $160K in October as MACD golden cross returns

For fellow trader BitBull, flipping $113,500 from resistance to support was the key low-time frame event, which opened the door to a rematch with all-time highs.

$BTC has reclaimed a very crucial level.

The $113.5K level which acted as a resistance has now been flipped into support.

Now the next key level for Bitcoin is to reclaim $117K level, and a new ATH will be confirmed. pic.twitter.com/3QdrCtH4ho

— BitBull (@AkaBull_) September 11, 2025

Some perspectives nonetheless saw a fresh support retest coming before a return to price discovery.

Trader Skew argued that the market would attempt to trap and liquidate longs that entered on the CPI release.

“One more liquidation before higher,” part of an X post suggested, noting 2,000 BTC of liquidity appearing on exchange order books.

Crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows went further, suggesting that BTC/USD would copy previous CPI behavior to first rise then plumb fresh lows.

“In the last 3 CPI data releases, Bitcoin rallied before CPI data and dumped right after the data release,” he observed alongside an explanatory chart. 

“This time, BTC has rallied before today’s CPI data release, which means a dump could happen.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

BTC is pinned near $111,000 with volatility compressed to multi-month lows, the kind of calm that tends to precede decisive moves. Traders know what could break the lull: September’s U.S. inflation data and the Fed’s rate decision a week later.

Prediction markets are leaning heavily toward easing. Polymarket bettors are assigning an 82% chance of a 25-basis-point cut on Sept. 17, leaving only slim odds for a deeper move or no change. Beyond that, October expectations are fractured, with nearly even probabilities for another cut or a pause. That divergence explains why volatility, though absent now, is unlikely to stay that way.

“Markets often look calm just before they move. Bitcoin is trading in one of its tightest ranges in months, and volatility across crypto has compressed to multi-month lows,” said Gracie Lin, OKX Singapore CEO. “With U.S. inflation data like Core CPI out on Sept. 11 and the Fed’s much-anticipated rate decision just ahead, this quiet period is setting the stage for the next decisive move. Whether the catalyst is an upside inflation surprise or a dovish signal from the Fed, what’s clear is that the absence of volatility is rarely permanent in digital assets; history shows the market will find its next direction soon enough.”

If a cut pulls money-market returns lower, the opportunity cost of sitting in cash rises, which is the pivot market maker Enflux says could send flows toward crypto.

“The real debate now is not if cuts come, but whether liquidity deployment shifts into BTC, ETH, and even riskier assets,” the firm told CoinDesk.

In other words, the Fed’s cut may grab headlines, but the real trade is whether sidelined cash rotates into digital assets — a shift that could fuel the return of volatility.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin has dipped slightly intraday, trading between approximately $110,812 and $113,237, reflecting short-term volatility amid shifting investor sentiment and broader crypto market dynamics.

ETH: ETH is modestly up intraday, with a range between roughly $4,279 and $4,379, signaling steady demand and some renewed investor interest. Range, however, is limited with modest ETF flows and traders awaiting the Fed’s next move.

Gold: Gold is rallying to record highs, fueled by mounting expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a weakening U.S. dollar, and renewed safe-haven demand.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific stocks opened mostly higher Wednesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.2%, as investors awaited China’s August inflation data showing an expected 0.2% CPI drop and a smaller 2.9% PPI decline.

S&P 500: U.S. stocks closed at record highs Tuesday, with the S&P 500 up 0.27% to 6,512.61, as investors looked past a record payroll revision that cut 911,000 jobs from prior figures.

Elsewhere in Crypto

• OpenSea Teases SEA Token With Final Phase of Rewards Amid App Launch (CoinDesk)
• California Man Sentenced in $36.9M Crypto Scam Tied to Infamous Huione Group (CoinDesk)
• Collector Crypt drives $150 million in randomized Pokémon card trades as CARDS token soars (The Block)

The latest US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, a measure of inflation, came in lower than expected at 3.1%, beating expectations of 3.2%, with a corresponding 0.1% drop in headline inflation figures.

According to Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares, the cooling inflation data adds to the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year, injecting much-needed liquidity into the markets and sending risk-on asset prices higher. Mena added:

“Rate cut expectations have surged in response — markets now price a 31.4% chance of a cut in May, up over 3x from last month, while expectations for three cuts by year-end have jumped over 5x to 32.5%, and four cuts have skyrocketed from just 1% to 21%.”

Despite the better-than-expected inflation numbers, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) declined from over $84,000 at the daily open to now sit around $83,000 as traders grapple with US President Donald Trump’s trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Related: Bitcoin’s ‘Trump trade’ is over — Traders shift hope to Fed rate cuts, expanding global liquidity

Is President Trump crashing markets to force rate cuts?

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on several occasions that the central bank is not rushing to cut interest rates — a view echoed by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.

During a Feb. 17 speech at the University of New South Wales in Syndey, Australia, Waller said the bank should pause interest rate cuts until inflation comes down.

These comments were met with concern from market analysts, who say that a lack of rate cuts might trigger a bear market and send asset prices plummeting.

On March 10, market analyst and investor Anthony Pompliano speculated that President Trump was intentionally crashing financial markets to force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US government needs to refinance roughly $9.2 trillion in debt before it reaches maturity in 2025.

Failure to refinance this debt at lower interest rates will drive up the national debt, which is currently over $36 trillion, and cause the interest payments on the debt to balloon.

Due to these reasons, President Trump has made interest rate cuts a top priority for his administration — even at the short-term expense of asset markets and business.

Magazine Elon Musk’s plan to run government on blockchain faces uphill battle

]]> https://earlybirdsinvest.com/us-cpi-comes-in-lower-than-expected-are-rate-cuts-coming/feed/ 0 24796 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-dips-below-95k-as-january-cpi-data-shows-increasing-inflation-can-memex-100x/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-dips-below-95k-as-january-cpi-data-shows-increasing-inflation-can-memex-100x/#respond Thu, 13 Feb 2025 15:25:17 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-dips-below-95k-as-january-cpi-data-shows-increasing-inflation-can-memex-100x/

The January US CPI data is in, and it’s not what the market anticipated. Consumer prices surged by 0.5% in the first month of 2025, exceeding the expected 0.3% increase.

On a year-over-year basis, CPI rose 3%, slightly above the forecasted 2.9% and higher than December’s 2.9% reading. The unexpected uptick signals persistent inflationary pressures, which could influence market expectations and Fed policy decisions.

The crypto market reacted swiftly to the latest inflation data, with Bitcoin slipping below the $95,000 mark in response.

Amid rising inflation and global uncertainty, Bitcoin has remained rangebound for the past two months. Since briefly surging past $108,000 during the post-election rally, the leading cryptocurrency has yet to confirm a clear breakout or breakdown.

Despite this consolidation, many analysts see the current price range as a prime accumulation zone, suggesting that Bitcoin could be gearing up for its next bull run.

Bitcoin May Reach $1.5M by 2030

Cathie Wood, the CEO of ARK Invest, believes Bitcoin can breach the $1.5M mark by the end of 2030.

Despite current turbulences, Wood believes Bitcoin is right on course for this landmark for a couple of reasons.

Ever since the appointment of Trump as president, more and more institutional investors have been keen to add Bitcoin to their portfolios due to its favorable risk-reward scenario.

More than 74 public companies now hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets. The total value, in fact, has increased 5x during the last year – from $11B in 2023 to $55B in 2024.

ARK Invest has published a report with Bitcoin price targets under various scenarios.

Sure, Bitcoin has a long road ahead, with several optimistic price predictions backing its seemingly monumental growth.

However, short-term turmoil like unfavorable CPI data can undoubtedly dent your portfolios. This is why we recommend taking refuge in the best crypto presales.

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Why Can $MEMEX 100x?

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However, none of the above is financial advice, and you should do your own research before investing your hard-earned money.

The crypto market can be highly volatile, and it’s best you consult a professional financial advisor to be doubly sure.

Bitcoin and the broader crypto markets faced a jolt on January 12 after the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came in hotter than expected. The shock sent Bitcoin briefly downward before bouncing back, spurring a range of reactions among traders and analysts.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released figures showing a 0.5% month-over-month rise in CPI, placing annual inflation at 3.0%—above the previously anticipated 2.9%. Meanwhile, Core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy costs) grew by 0.4% month-over-month, settling at a 3.3% annual rate and similarly surpassing consensus forecasts.

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Shortly before the data went live, Bitcoin saw a quick drop of -2.1% to $94,250, which some market observers speculate might be tied to traders or insiders receiving an early hint of the inflation overshoot. However, the downturn proved temporary; prices rebounded to highs of $98,100 as worried retail traders watched the market reaction unfold.

A ‘Buy The News’ Event For Bitcoin?

Santiment, an on-chain analysis firm, weighed in on the volatility in a blog post dated February 13. In an update titled “CPI Catching the Crowd’s Eye…”, Brian Quinlivan, Director of Marketing at Santiment, noted that market participants have become acutely sensitive to any inflation news, especially given the turmoil of the last few years.

Citing a 15-month high in CPI-related discussions across social channels like X, Reddit, Telegram, 4Chan, Bitcointalk, and Farcaster, Santiment highlighted the magnitude of traders’ apprehension: “Initially, just before the CPI Report was announced, Bitcoin briefly dropping -2.1% to $94,250 before recovering slightly. This very well could have been some large insiders that were getting wind of the high inflation news ahead of time. However, prices quickly recovered to as high as $98,100 as retails were showing concern.”

The post further explained that the shock of this CPI release has reignited fears linked to Federal Reserve policy changes. After cutting rates throughout 2023 and 2024, the Fed abruptly halted further cuts in November 2024.

Santiment warns this might signal a prolonged period without additional rate reductions: “Now that inflation numbers are concernedly high in the US, many are predicting that it will be quite a long time before we see further cuts, which traditionally benefit the markets. The rate rises in 2022, which were largely attributed to the massive crypto correction, are still fresh in peoples’ memories.”

Related Reading

Despite the prospect of extended monetary tightening, Santiment observed a potential contrarian signal involving Bitcoin holder counts: “We have already been seeing a decline in total holders on the Bitcoin network, and this is generally a bullish signal. An ideal scenario would be for small traders to overreact to this news, allowing whales and sharks to scoop up more coins and send prices skyrocketing. Based on the early price rebounds following the news, this may be shaping up to be a ‘sell the rumor, buy the news’ scenario.”

Market watchers beyond Santiment have also chimed in. Tom Dunleavy, Partner at MV Global, also offered an optimistic take on the data, specifically noting the role of shelter costs: “The key driver of this hot CPI print was housing (1/3 of headline and 40% of core inflation). This reading is massively lagged by almost a year. Nothing to worry about as more real time readings show housing flat to falling in major markets,” he remarked via X.

For many traders, the burning question remains: Will this “hot” CPI reading mark the start of a new inflationary trend—or is it simply a quirk of delayed data? Santiment’s suggestion of a possible “sell the rumor, buy the news” dynamic reflects how swiftly sentiment can shift in a crypto market often driven by momentum and social consensus. Meanwhile, Dunleavy’s housing-focused breakdown underscores that headline inflation numbers can be deceptive without dissecting the underlying components.

At press time, BTC traded at $96,028.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com