Contraction – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Wed, 30 Apr 2025 16:21:09 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.7 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Contraction – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 Crypto prediction markets reflect rising recession odds amid US economic contraction https://earlybirdsinvest.com/crypto-prediction-markets-reflect-rising-recession-odds-amid-us-economic-contraction/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/crypto-prediction-markets-reflect-rising-recession-odds-amid-us-economic-contraction/#respond Wed, 30 Apr 2025 16:21:09 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/crypto-prediction-markets-reflect-rising-recession-odds-amid-us-economic-contraction/

Crypto prediction markets are signaling growing expectations of a U.S. recession this year after fresh economic data showed the economy contracted in the first quarter of 2025.

According to the latest figures released by the US Commerce Department, gross domestic product declined by 0.3% between January and March. This drop comes after a 2.4% expansion in the previous quarter, marking the first economic pullback since 2022.

Following the report, users on the decentralized betting platform Polymarket have pushed the odds of a 2025 recession to 66%, the highest recorded this year.

US recession probability
Probability of a US Recession (Source: Polymarket)

The event market has also seen strong engagement, with over $3.8 million in total volume traded as of press time.

Meanwhile, the sentiment is mirrored on Kalshi, a regulated event-trading exchange, where the odds of a recession this year rose to a high of 74% but slightly retracted to 71% as of press time.

Reacting to the economic downturn and the increased probability of a recession, US lawmaker Daniel Goldman strongly rebuked the Trump administration’s trade policies.

He argued that the tariffs have already driven up consumer costs, weakened confidence, and contributed to the decline in GDP.

Goldman said:

“Trump is the first president to knowingly crash the economy…As he barrels us into a recession, working people will suffer while his cronies get rich.”

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Bitcoin Demand in Contraction After Trump’s Crypto Reserve Announcement: CryptoQuant https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-demand-in-contraction-after-trumps-crypto-reserve-announcement-cryptoquant/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-demand-in-contraction-after-trumps-crypto-reserve-announcement-cryptoquant/#respond Sat, 08 Mar 2025 22:26:14 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-demand-in-contraction-after-trumps-crypto-reserve-announcement-cryptoquant/

This week, the crypto market, led by bitcoin (BTC), received positive news and reacted accordingly. However, the reaction was short-lived, and the entire field has returned to stagnation and negative trajectories.

A weekly report from the market analytics platform CryptoQuant revealed that real spot demand for BTC is still in contraction territory, while bitcoin’s apparent demand has continued to decline following the acceleration period seen in November-December 2024.

“Trump-n-Dump”

Earlier this week, the market witnessed what CryptoQuant tagged a “Trump-n-Dump.” This refers to traders massively selling their digital assets after a rally triggered by an announcement concerning a United States Strategic Crypto Reserve.

On March 2, President Trump revealed that he had directed the Presidential Working Group to move forward with the creation of a strategic digital asset reserve. He said the reserve would include BTC, ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP), and Cardano (ADA), reinforcing his promise to make the United States the crypto capital of the world.

After the announcement, the prices of the crypto assets chosen for the reserve spiked. BTC surged by 14%, ETH by 20%, XRP by 40%, SOL by more than 20%, and ADA by at least 60%.

By Monday morning, crypto prices had returned to their pre-announcement levels, clearing all the gains recorded during the rally. While prices fell, traders rushed to offload their assets on exchanges. The number of BTC flowing into trading platforms per hour spiked from 500-1,000 to 6,739 on March 3, while ETH inflows rose to roughly 300,000.

On the other hand, about 2 billion XRP flowed into crypto trading platforms on Sunday and Monday, with the coin’s hourly inflows hitting 193 million. CryptoQuant found that most of these flows came from whales executing transactions of 1 million+ XRP.

Crypto Assets Record Deeper Corrections

According to CryptoQuant, the high inflows into crypto trading platforms indicated that traders were selling their assets to take advantage of the sudden price spike. Currently, the prices of BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and ADA are all down by at least 3% daily, per data from CoinMarketCap.

Interestingly, these cryptocurrencies recorded deeper corrections on March 6 after Trump signed an executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a Digital Asset Stockpile. The order established reserves that will consist of cryptocurrencies forfeited in criminal or civil proceedings. The U.S. government will neither sell its cryptocurrencies nor acquire any additional assets beyond those obtained through forfeiture proceedings.

Nevertheless, CryptoQuant insists that BTC needs higher demand to experience a sustained rally in its price, notwithstanding economic decisions made by the U.S. government.

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