In my Substack Blog post published a week ago, last Wednesday, I stated that there were several technical factors, as the title suggested, that there was potential “Early Signs of a Crack in the Back of the Nasdaq 100 Index’s Rally”. My only concern at that time was that I was sticking my neck out with that warning, considering that over the remainer of the week there was a few potential news events that could invoke volatility in the rates market that would likely overflow into the equity markets. That proved to be a reasonable concern, and my technical thesis was promptly “Jackson Holed” last Friday and investors were caught “wrong sided” and equities, including the NDX Index rallied sharply. In doing so it retook the ground back above the broken Kijun Plot (green line) There was a measure follow through over the rest of the week until today. That five-day rally from a week ago last Wednesday’s low could not even begin to challenge the Lower Warning Line (red dashed line) of the longer-term Standard Pitchfork (red P1 through P3).

I drew a shorter-term Schiff Pitchfork (green P1 though P3) after last Friday’s rally that encompasses what I think is a distributive top. Note the continued Relative underperformance vs. the SPX in the lower panel. Below that, MACD only briefly stabilized but has turned lower again (note histogram in green) and remains below its signal line. I now mark first support at the Lower Parallel of the new Schiff Pitchfork and second remains at Cloud Support. Note that the Cloud is no longer mirroring the vector of the longer-term Standard Pitchfork. My technical thesis of that we are witnessing a distributive top will be negated with a rally that is able retake the ground above the Lower Parallel (red LWL) and the August 13^th price pivot at green P2

Chart is courtesy of Optuma

One Bitcoin (BTC) metric is signaling potential concern for the flagship crypto asset, according to new insight from market intelligence firm Swissblock.

In a post on the social media platform X, Swissblock highlights a sudden plunge in on-chain liquidity, something the firm says needs to reverse if BTC should rally.

“At the same time as the rest of the market has consolidated back into BTC, we have seen a drop off in our on-chain liquidity.

For bullish continuation, we need to see an uptick again in on-chain liquidity.”

On-chain liquidity refers to how easily and efficiently Bitcoin can be bought or sold without significantly impacting BTC’s price. Low liquidity environments suggest that there are not enough buyers to absorb sell orders, triggering price declines.

Swissblock says that the fast drop in liquidity by itself is “a concern” and that BTC is showing a reduction in overall activity in the Bitcoin network.

However, the analytics firm says that BTC’s long-term bullish market structure still looks solid.

“Lower liquidity as price is more correlated with on-chain dynamics vs external factors. Lower activity making price more susceptible to downside volatility..

All is not lost. Even though we have had a liquidity flush, the bullish long-term structure is still intact as long as our Risk off signal is at 0…

While liquidity conditions have deteriorated, the broader bullish structure remains intact – provided risk signals continue to hold.”

At time of writing, BTC is trading at $101,833.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

Generated Image: Midjourney

Wall Street veteran Steve Eisman is highlighting one concern he has about the stock market.

In a new CNBC interview, the investor who predicted the US housing bubble in 2007/2008 and was subsequently profiled in The Big Short movie says tariffs are his “one concern.”

“That’s it. I mean the market’s gotten pretty complacent about it. But you know in any trade negotiation the details really matter and I think negotiating with Europe about tariffs is incredibly complicated because each country effectively has a veto on any issue that it wants, that thinks it’s important.

And I don’t know what’s going to happen with China. I just don’t know how to handicap this because there’s just too many balls in the air. So I mean I’m long only, I’ve taken some risks down and I’m just sitting pat.”

Citing the recent results of artificial intelligence (AI) chipmaker NVIDIA, where revenues jumped 69% quarter-on-quarter, Eisman says a trade war could make the rapid growth of the AI sector irrelevant over the short term.

“Those numbers were wild… when you think about it… what is this? A $3 trillion company whose revenue grew 69%? It’s unbelievable when you think about it. It’s insane.

So, I just think the AI revolution is early. But if, god forbid, there’s a trade war, none of that will matter in the near term. It just won’t.”

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

Generated Image: Midjourney