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Elon Musk is raising new questions about Bitcoin’s long-term safety in the face of rapid advances in quantum computing. The Tesla and SpaceX CEO turned to his AI chatbot, Grok, to find out how likely it is that Bitcoin’s SHA-256 hashing algorithm could be cracked by powerful quantum machines.

His question came just as IBM revealed major plans for its next-generation quantum system called Blue Jay, which is expected to reach 2,000 global qubits by 2033.

Grok Predicts Low Risk, At Least For Now

According to Grok, the risk of Bitcoin’s encryption getting cracked by quantum computers is very low over the next five years. The AI estimates the chance remains close to zero during that period.

But when looking out to 2035, the probability goes up slightly—though it still stays under 10%. These numbers are based on expert assessments and current quantum capabilities.

Based on 2025 assessments from NIST, IBM, and expert surveys, the probability of quantum computing cracking SHA-256 (via Grover’s algorithm, reducing preimage search to ~2^128 operations) is near 0% in the next 5 years and <10% by 2035. It requires millions of error-corrected…

— Grok (@grok) August 2, 2025

Musk’s concerns are not coming out of nowhere. Companies like Google and Microsoft are developing their own quantum platforms—Willow and Majorana 1—which have sparked debate over whether cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin could one day be vulnerable to attacks from these ultra-powerful systems.

Right now, most quantum systems only have around 1,000 qubits. That’s far below the millions of error-corrected qubits scientists believe are necessary to break Bitcoin’s cryptographic defenses.

Grok added that stronger algorithms like SHA-3 or SHA-512 could be used as replacements if needed in the future.

Quantum Computers Vs. Blockchain

Meanwhile, according to a recent analysis by global auditing firm Deloitte, quantum computers could soon threaten the security of the Bitcoin blockchain, with around 25% of Bitcoins currently at risk of being stolen through quantum attacks.

Eventually, quantum computers might become powerful enough to break the entire transaction process, the analysts said. To prevent this, the Bitcoin network would need to adopt post-quantum cryptography—an emerging but complex solution currently being explored by cryptographers worldwide.

Image: The Quantum Insider

IBM’s Blue Jay Adds Pressure

IBM’s new system, Blue Jay, will have more than a billion gate operations—something much beyond the capabilities of today’s computers.

It’s part of the company’s larger effort to be at the forefront of quantum computing by the early 2030s. With other industry giants such as Google and Microsoft not far behind, the competition is heating up.

Tesla And SpaceX Both Hold Bitcoin

Musk’s curiosity isn’t just academic. Tesla currently owns 11,500 Bitcoins, worth about $1.3 billion at current prices. SpaceX also holds a sizable amount, reportedly around $850 million worth of BTC. Musk himself has confirmed that he holds Bitcoin in his personal portfolio.

With the extent of those holdings, it is no wonder that Musk would like to get ahead of potential threats. His tweet is seemingly relaxed, but it indicates increased awareness in the tech world about how quantum advances might affect the world of crypto and finance.

Featured image from ABB, chart from TradingView

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Recently, Project Eleven (Quantum Computing Research Group) announced 1 Bitcoin reward for the first team that can complete a challenge to destroy the ECC (Elliptic Curve Cryptograph) key using Shor’s algorithm on quantum computers.

The deadline for this assignment is April 5, 2026. In other words, in order to qualify for the award, the team must demonstrate that they will break the important pairs that must be made before that deadline.

This is, frankly, a completely absurd and meaningless award for a number of reasons. The first reason is that the deadline is just under a year from today. Even very optimistic predictions about quantum computing progress have put a timeline that effectively achieves such goals, like five to ten years. Even if you consider Quantum Computing a material threat in the short term, expecting a viable proof of concept that actually breaks Keypair in one year is pretty hilarious at face value.

Next is the factors that contribute to economic incentives. Currently, a single Bitcoin is worth around $80,000. That’s frankly not much money in a grand plan of things. Especially when it comes to the application of cutting-edge technologies such as quantum computing, which allow the entire class of classes to be executed exponentially than classical computers. Imagine how valuable you can do with a work quantum computer.

Regardless of TLS, you can eavesdrop on your internet connection, destroy secure connections to your banks, break stock brokers, and private company networks that do not use post-Quantum encryption. It can break all private messenger applications on the planet and decrypt PGP encrypted messages sent via email knowing the public key. It can break the entire hierarchy of certificate authority in a DNS system, and impersonate the server in the world that users are trying to connect to.

All of these are immeasurable worth more than just $84,000. Will some people publicly reveal the fact that people using Quantum Computer claim a single bitcoin when they have access to all the other things they can do?

Now, let’s put all these possibilities aside and pretend that aside Bitcoin, the whole world magically moves to post-Quantum encryption. that still If you have a functional quantum computer, it doesn’t make sense to try and publicly request this award.

Let’s assume you have a quantum computer that is barely capable of performing well. I think it takes quite a while to crack a single key. How many bare public keys are there to protect 50 BTC outputs from the first mining epoch? Thousands of them. Why the hell do you break it, then tell everyone to publicly assert it Single Bitcoin? You will try to crack as many early Coinbase rewards as possible before people detect you.

Finally, in itself, the timetable is just ridiculous. Nowadays, quantum computers can’t even consider primes that people can mentally make in their own heads. In a year, will the technology then break the bitcoin key? That’s ridiculous.

So, except for a few publicity stunts, what is the point of this award? No matter how worried or indifferent you may be about the time frame of quantum computers as a threat, it makes no sense at all as a serious bounty to serve as a canary in our coal mine.

This bounty is a joke.

This article is a take. The opinions expressed are entirely the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

The US government relies on a network of computers to generate payments out of thin air, including some transactions that remain entirely undocumented, according to Elon Musk.

In a new interview on Senator Ted Cruz’s Verdict podcast, Musk says the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has now discovered about 14 “magic money” computers.

Musk tells Cruz that these computers are responsible for sending trillions of dollars in payments.

“I call a magic money computer any computer that can make money out of thin air. It just issues payments… They just send money out of nothing.”

Musk says about 5-10% of the payments executed by these computers are not reported to Senators in Congress.

“You may think that the government computers all talk to each other. They synchronize. They add up what funds are going somewhere and it’s coherent, and that the numbers that you’re presented as a Senator are actually the real numbers. One would think. They’re not.”

Musk says DOGE has discovered these computers at the Treasury Department, State Department, Health and Human Services Department and the Defense Department.

According to Musk, the government’s systems make it tough to reconcile payments and tackle waste and fraud.

“If you want to know what what the situation is with the accounting and you’re trying to reconcile accounting and get rid of waste and fraud, you must be able to analyze the computer databases. Otherwise you can’t figure it out.

Because what you’re doing is asking a human – who will then ask another human – and finally usually ask some contractor – who will ask another contractor – to do a query on the computer.

So it’s many layers deep. The only way to reconcile the databases and get rid of waste and fraud is to to actually look at the computers and see what’s going on.

When I sort of cryptically refer to reprogramming The Matrix, you have to understand what’s going at the computers. You have to reconcile the computer databases in order to identify the waste and fraud.”

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