Welcome to The Market’s Compass Emerging Market’s Country ETF Study, Week #537. As always, it highlights the technical changes of the 20 EM Country ETFs that I track on a weekly basis and publish every third week. Paid subscribers will receive this week’s unabridged Emerging Market’s Country ETF Study sent to their registered e-mail. In celebration of the Easter Holiday, free subscribers will also receive the full version (in a thinly veiled attempt to lure them into becoming paid subscribers). Past publications can be accessed by paid subscribers via The Market’s Compass Substack Blog. Next week I will be publishing The Market’s Compass Developed Markets Country ETF Study. On Sunday I will publish the latest edition of The Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study which I publish on a weekly basis and tracks the technical changes of sixteen of the larger capitalized Cryptocurrencies.

To understand the methodology used in constructing the objective EM Country ETF Individual Technical Rankings visit the mc’s technical indicators page at www.themarketscompass.com and select “em country etfs”.

To understand the methodology used in constructing the objective EM Country ETF Individual Technical Rankings visit the mc’s technical indicators page at www.themarketscompass.com and select “em country etfs”.

This past week The Total EM Technical Ranking or “TEMTR” rose +22.92% to 539 from 438.5 the previous week, which was another sharp rise of +28.78% to 438.5 from 340.5 three weeks ago. The Total Lat AM EM Ranking led the other two geographic regions higher, rising 28.7% to 181.5 from 141. The EMEA EM Total Technical Ranking rose 20.7% to 181 from 150 the previous week. The Total Asia-Pacific EM Ranking rose 19.7% to 176.5 from 147.5.

Seventeen of the twenty EM Country ETFs I track in these pages registered improvement in their TRs over the Good Friday Holiday shortened week ending April 17th, one was unchanged, and two ETF TRs fell. The average TR gain was +5.03 vs. the previous week’s average TR gain of +4.90 when fifteen out of twenty gained ground, two were unchaged, and two fell. Seven of the EM Country ETF TRs ended the week in the “green zone” (TRs between 34.5 and 50), nine were in the “blue zone” (TRs between 15.5 and 34) and four were in the “red zone” (TRs between 0 and 15). That was a improvement from the previous week when only two were in the “green zone”, eleven were in the “blue zone” and seven were in the “red zone”. All five of the Lat/ AM ETFs registered improvement in their TRs with four out of the five entering the “green zone”.

*To understand the construction the of The Technical Condition Factors visit the mc’s technical indicators page at www.themarketscompass.com and select “em country etfs”.

This past week a 76.43% reading was registered in the Daily Momentum Technical Condition Factor (”DMTCF”) or 107 out of a possible total of 140 positive points. That was higher from the week before reading of 42.14% or 59 which was a major lift from the deeply oversold condition three weeks ago, of 5.71% of only 8 out of 140 points.

As a confirmation tool, if all eight TCFs improve on a week-over-week basis, more of the 20 ETFs are improving internally on a technical basis, confirming a broader market move higher (think of an advance/decline calculation). Conversely if all eight TCFs fall on a week-over-week basis it confirms a broader market move lower. Last week six TCFs rose, one was unchanged, and one fell.

*A brief explanation of how to interpret RRG charts visit the mc’s technical indicators page at www.themarketscompass.com and select “em country etfs”. To learn more detailed interpretations, see the postscripts and links at the end of this Blog.

The chart below has three weeks, or 15 days*, of Relative data points vs. the benchmark, the EEM (the Emerging Markets ETF), at the center, deliniated by the dots or nodes. Not all 20 ETFs are plotted in this RRG Chart. I have done this for clarity purposes. Those which I believe are of higher technical interest remain.

*Because of the holiday shortened week, there are only 14 days of data points

When I published the last EM Country ETF Study on March 31st, I highlighted the iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (TUR) which had fallen sharply from the Leading Quadrant through the Weakening Quadrant and ending up in the Lagging Quadrant. Before rolling over last week the TUR rose sharply into the Improving Quadrant exhibiting Positive upside Relative Strength Momentum (note the distance between the daily nodes) as it rose into the Improving Quadrant. The iShares Indonesia ETF (EDIO) lifted up out Laging Quadrant three weeks ago into the Improving Quadrant but after marking positive Relative Strength and Momentum two weeks ago it has rolled over and has begun to track sideways although it remains in the Leading Quadrant. The standout Relative Strength performer had, over the previous two weeks been the iShares MSCI India Index Fund ETF (INDA) until it rolled over last week, losing upside Relative Strength Momentum.

When Trump dropped the “tariff bomb” on the financial markets three weeks ago the EEM printed a lower weely price low below the January 10th weekly closing low of 41.02 to close three weeks ago at 40.58 in concert with the “TER” falling to 340.05. That said the TER did not print a lower low and has since risen back to 539.5 but, it would be premature to declare that it was a non-confirmation of the price lows, but the 13-Week Exponential moving average of the “TER” is hooking higher. More on the longer-term technical condition of the EEM follows…

The Average Weekly Technical Ranking (“ATR”) is the average Technical Ranking (“TR”) of the 20 Emerging Markets Country ETFs we track weekly and is plotted in the lower panel on the Weekly Candle Chart of the EEM presented below. Like the TER, it is a confirmation/divergence or overbought/oversold indicator.

Four weeks ago, prices were teetering on support offered by the Lower Parallel (solid red line) of the longer-term Standard Pitchfork (violet P1 through P3) after being capped at price resistance at 45.50 for the second time the week before. The following week prices broke below support at the of the longer-term Pitchfork and the Cloud. Prices traded lower two weeks ago before a temporary reversal in Trump’s Tariff plans led to a sharp intra-week turnaround. I have since drawn a new Schiff Pitchfork (red P1 through P3). Prices have retaken the ground above the Median Line (red dotted line) of the shorter-term Pitchfork but have been capped at the Kijun Plot (green line) and the Cloud last week. Both MACD and the Stochastic Momentum Index rolled over through their signal lines but (thanks to the price reversal at P3) there is a hint of stabilization in the shorter-term Stochastic Momentum Index. That in itself is not enough to suggest that a sustainable low is in place.

Learn about Pitchforks and Internal Lines in the three-part Pitchfork tutorial in the Market’s Compass website, www.themarketscompass.com

More on the technical condition of the EEM in Thoughts on the Short-Term Technical Condition of the EEM but first…

*For the four-day Holiday shortened week ending April 17th. Does not include dividends if any.

Fifteen of the twenty EM Country ETFs were up on an absolute basis last week (the iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund ETF (EWY) was flat on the week) and four traded lower. Fifteen EM ETFs outperformed the 0.41% gain in the EEM on a relative basis. The average four-day absolute gain in the EM ETFs was +2.00% adding to the previous week’s average absolute gain of +3.82% helping to reverse the -6.80% average absolute loss registered three weeks ago.

At the time of our last missive on the shorter-term technical condition of the EEM (highlighted with the yellow circle) prices continued (for weeks) to track sideways in a 3 point range. That was until the following week when prices fell sharply lower below support afforded by the Cloud and VAP support (volume at price) thanks to the “Tariff Bomb”. Two more days of extended price weakness brought about an oversold condition as witnessed by 10-Day Stochastic Momentum and more importantly, my EM Country ETD Daily Momentum / Breadth Oscillator and a sharp price reversal unfolded which led to me to draw the new Standard Pitchfork (violet P1 through P3) and a week ago last Friday, the EEM overtook the Median Line (violet dotted line) of the Pitchfork. That said, with the oversold fuel mostly spent, the rally has stalled at what was once VAP support now turned VAP resistance. It is premature to suggest the nadir was reached at P3. Only a follow through rally that overtakes VAP resistance, massive Cloud resistance and the Upper Parallel (solid violet line) of the Pitchfork would suggest that the correction has run its course. Buyers beware of another “Trump Card” (tip of the hat to Stephen Suttmeier for that one).

All the charts are courtesy of Optuma whose charting software enables anyone to visualize any data including my Objective Technical Rankings. The following links are an introduction and an in-depth tutorial on RRG Charts…

https://www.optuma.com/videos/introduction-to-rrg/

https://www.optuma.com/videos/optuma-webinar-2-rrgs/

To receive a 30-day trial of Optuma charting software go to…

www.optuma.com/TMC.

Welcome to The Market’s Compass US Index and Sector ETF Study, Week #522*. As always it highlights the technical changes of the 30 US Index and Sector ETFs that I track on a weekly basis and normally publish every third week. Past publications can be accessed by paid subscribers via The Market’s Compass Substack Blog.

*In observence of Christmas, Hanukkah, and New Years holiday this week’s complete Market’s Compass U.S. Index and Sector ETF Study will be the final Study for 2024. Many thanks to all subscribers, paid and free, for your attention and feedback to my technical observations on the US Index and Sector ETF markets through out 2024. Today’s study will be sent to all subscribers, Happy Holidays!

Regular readers will note that I have removed the repetitive explanations of my proprietary indicators. As will be seen below they can be reviewed on The Market’s Compass website.

To understand the methodology used in constructing the objective U.S. Index and Sector ETF Individual Technical Rankings visit the MC’s Technical Indicators page at www.themarketscompass.com and go to “us etfs”.

The Total ETF Ranking or “TER”, fell -24.16% last week to 601 from 792.5 the week before. Four weeks ago, the TER registered the best level since March 29th reading of 1,215 and as will be seen later is this week’s Study despite reaching an overbought condition the TER finally confirmed the record weekly closing November 29th high. It has fallen the past three weeks

At the end of last week, Twenty-nine ETFs registered losses in their TRs, and one was unchanged. Eight ETFs registered double-digit TR losses. At the end of the week only four of the ETF TRs were in the “green zone” (TRs between 35-50), thirteen ETF TRs were in the “blue zone” (TRs from 15.5 -34.5), and thirteen ended in the “red zone” (TRs between 0-15) versus the week before when there were ten in the “green zone”, eleven were in the “blue zone”, and nine were in the “red zone” (TRs between 0-15). Last week marked a deterioration in individual TRs week over week.

*To understand the construction the of The Technical Condition Factors visit the MC’s Technical Indicators page at www.themarketscompass.com and go to “us etfs”.

One technical takeaway would be if the DMC Factor or DMCTF rises to an extreme between 85% and 100% it would suggest a short-term overbought condition. Conversely a reading in the range of 0% to 15% would suggest an oversold condition was developing. This past week a reading of 9.52% was registered in the DMCTF or 20 out of a possible total of 210 positive points which left the DMCTF in oversold territory

As a confirmation tool, if all eight TCFs improve on a week over week basis, more of the 30 ETFs are improving internally on a technical basis confirming a broader market move higher (think of an advance/decline calculation). Conversely if all eight TCFs fell over the week it confirms a move lower in the broader market. Last week seven TCFs registered losses and one was unchanged helping to confirm the selloff in the broader market.

An explanation of the The Total ETF Technical Ranking Indicator visit the MC’s Technical Indicators page at www.themarketscompass.com and go to “us etfs”.

Before the precipitous drop in the TER over the past three weeks, the TER edged out a confirming high vs. December 6th closing price high but the 13-Week Exponential Moving Average failed to do so and has been tracking lower since.

The Weekly Average Technical Ranking (“ATR”) is the average Technical Ranking of the 30 US Index and Sector ETFs we track. Like the TER, it is a confirmation/divergence or overbought/oversold indicator.

Unsurprisingly, after reaching an overbought extreme (as did the TER) the ATR has fallen sharply thorough both moving averages and now has reached an oversold condition. The one positive technical feature is that the large cap index held support offered by the Median Line (red dotted line) of the Standard Pitchfork (red P1 through P3) on an intra-week basis. That said Weekly MACD is only another bad week away from violating its signal line. More in “Thoughts on the short-term technical condition of the SPX Index” but first…

*Does not include potential dividends

All thirty US ETFs we track in this blog lost ground on an absolute basis last week. The average absolute loss last week was -4.12%, adding to the average absolute loss -2.03% the week before. Only five ETFs outperformed the -1.99% loss in the S&P 500 Index on a relative basis and twenty-five underperformed.

Last Wednesday the S&P 500 Index sliced through support at the Lower Parallel (solid red line) of the Schiff Modified Pitchfork (red P1 through P3) and although on an intra-day basis it traded back above it, it was capped at the broken Kijun Plot and on Friday the large-cap index closed below it. My Daily Momentum / Breadth Oscillator has reached an oversold condition that may lead to a further reactionary price bounce. That said, the momentum oscillators do not suggest anything more than that.

For readers who are unfamiliar with the technical terms or tools referred to in the comments on the technical condition of the SPX can avail themselves of a brief tutorial titled, Tools of Technical Analysis.

Charts are courtesy of Optuma whose charting software allows the Technical Rankings to be calculated and back tested.

To receive a 30-day trial of Optuma charting software go to…

www.optuma.com/TMC

Welcome to this week’s publication of the Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study #175. The Study tracks the technical condition of sixteen of the larger market cap cryptocurrencies. Every week the Studies will highlight the technical changes of the 16 cryptocurrencies that I track as well as highlights on noteworthy moves in individual Cryptocurrencies and Indexes. As always paid subscribers will receive this week’s unabridged Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Study sent to their registered email*. Past publications including the Weekly ETF Studies can be accessed by paid subscribers via The Market’s Compass Substack Blog.

*In celebration of Groundhog Day, Free subscribers will get a look at this weeks unabridged version today. Unfortunately, Punxsutawy Phil saw his shadow signaling six more weeks of winter. Become a paid subscriber and spend the next six weeks of winter reading The Market’s Compass Crypto Sweet Sixteen Studies.

*An explanation of my objective Individual Technical Rankings go to www.themarketscompass.com. Then go to the MC’s Technical Indicators and select “crypto sweet 16”.

The Excel spreadsheet below indicates the weekly change in the objective Technical Ranking (“TR”) of each individual Cryptocurrency and the Sweet Sixteen Total Technical Ranking (“SSTTR”).

*Rankings are calculated up to the week ending Friday January 31st

After rising 21.11% to 593 three weeks ago the Sweet Sixteen Total Technical Ranking or “SSTTR” fell -6.73% for the second week in a row to 450.5.

Last week all but five of the Sweet Sixteen Crypto TRs fell (one was unchanged) The average Crypto TR loss last week was -2.03 vs. the previous week’s average loss of -6.88. Four ETF TRs ended the week in the “green zone” (TRs between 35 and 50), eleven were in the “blue zone” (TRs between 15.5 and 34.5), and one remained in the “red zone” (Matic Network) vs. the previous week when six TRs were in the “green zone” and nine were in the “blue zone”.

*The CCi30 Index is a registered trademark and was created and is maintained by an independent team of mathematicians, quants and fund managers lead by Igor Rivin. It is a rules-based index designed to objectively measure the overall growth, daily and long-term movement of the blockchain sector. It does so by indexing the 30 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, excluding stable coins (more details can be found at CCi30.com).

A brief explanation of how to interpret RRG charts can be found at The Market’s Compass website www.themarketscompass.com Then go to MC’s Technical Indicators and select Crypto Sweet 16. To learn more detailed interpretations, see the postscripts and links at the end of this Blog.

The chart below has two weeks, or 14 days, of data points deliniated by the dots or nodes. Not all 16 Crypto Currencies are plotted in this RRG Chart. I have done this for clarity purposes. Those which I believe are of higher technical interest remain.

Over the past two weeks both Tron (TRX) and Cosmos (ATOM) have escaped the Lagging Quadrant and have entered the Improving Quadrant. In the case of TRX, it is only one good day on a Relative Strength basis from entering the Leading Quadrant although there was a slowing of Relative Strength Momentum late last week. Ripple (XRP) rolled over in the Leading Quadrant a week ago last Friday and has fallen into the Weakening Quadrant. That weakening of Relative Strength and Relative Strength Momentum was followed by Solana (SOL) and ChainLink (LINK) last week.

The two charts below are longer term line charts of the Relative Strength or Weakness of the Sweet Sixteen Crypto Currencies vs. the CCi30 Index that are charted with a 55-Day Exponential Moving Average in blue and a 21-Day Simple Moving Average in red. Trend direction and crossovers, above or below the longer-term moving average, reveal potential continuation of trend or reversals in Relative Strength or Weakness.

*Friday January 24th to Friday January 31st.

Only three of the Crypto Sweet Sixteen registered absolute gains last week and thirteen lost absolute ground vs. the previous week when four registered absolute gains and tweleve traded lower. The seven-day average absolute price loss was -2.11%, (without the +7.90% gain in Litecoin (LTC) the average loss would have been -2.78%), versus the previous week’s average absolute loss of -5.96%.

*An explanation of my Technical Condition Factors go to www.themarketscompass.com. Then go to the MC’s Technical Indicators and select Crypto Sweet 16.

The DMTCF rose slightly last week from a reading of 33.04% or 37 the week before to 43.75% or 49 out of a possible 112.

As a confirmation tool, if all eight TCFs improve on a week over week basis, more of the 16 Cryptocurrencies are improving internally on a technical basis, confirming a broader market move higher (think of an advance/decline calculation). Conversely, if more of the TCFs fall on a week over week basis, more of the “Cryptos” are deteriorating on a technical basis confirming the broader market move lower. Last week five TCFs fell, and only three rose.

For a brief explanation on how to interpret the Sweet Sixteen Total Technical Ranking or “SSTTR” vs the weekly price chart of the CCi30 Index go to www.themarketscompass.com. Then go to the MC’s Technical Indicators and select Crypto Sweet 16.

The CCi30 Index remains “trapped” in what the bulls should hope is a triangulating consolidation pattern. Although MACD continues to reflect the obvious loss of upside price momentum it remains elevated in positive territory above its signal line but the shorter-term Stochastic Momentum Index continues to track lower after signaling an overbought condition in early January. My Sweet Sixteen Total Technical Ranking (bottom panel) continues to pull back from overbought territory (red dashed line). As I wrote last week, key to the bullish consolidation technical argument case will be that key support at 19,860 holds and prices are able to overtake the trend of lower highs highlighted with red dashed line.

The technical condition of the CCi30 Index on the daily price chart has not changed in a significant way over the past seven days aside from a turn in short-term price momentum as witnessed by the Stochastic Momentum Index and the Fisher Transform retaking the ground above its sinal line. That said, only a rally that advances the Index through key price resistance at the 24,260 level with follow through would suggest that the price action since early December has merely been a period of consolidation prior to new highs.

All the charts are courtesy of Optuma whose charting software enables users to visualize any data such as my Objective Technical Rankings. Cryptocurrency price data is courtesy of Kraken.

Most charting software offers some form of RRG charts, but nothing comes close to Optuma’s, and I urge readers to utilize them on a daily basis. The following links are an introduction and an in-depth tutorial on RRG Charts…

https://www.optuma.com/videos/introduction-to-rrg/

https://www.optuma.com/videos/optuma-webinar-2-rrgs/

To receive a 30-day trial of Optuma charting software go to…

www.optuma.com/TMC.

An in-depth comprehensive lesson on Pitchforks and analysis as well as a basic tutorial on the Tools Technical Analysis is available on my website…

www.themarketscompass.com