For people who reach retirement without much savings, Social Security can be a true lifeline. And it’s people in that situation who tend to be very reliant on the program’s cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs).

Social Security benefits are eligible for a COLA each year. That doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to get one, though.

If there’s no rise in inflation from one year to the next, benefits don’t increase. Thankfully, though, the worst thing that happens is that they stay put. Social Security benefits can’t be adjusted downward, even if there’s a drop in inflation year over year.

At this point, many Social Security recipients are eager to know what raise they’ll be getting in 2026. And unfortunately, it’s too soon to have an official answer.

Social Security COLAs are based on third-quarter inflation data. This means that until data from September comes in, a COLA can’t be calculated. It’s for this reason that the Social Security Administration won’t be able to announce a COLA until Oct. 15.

However, based on inflation data so far, there are clues as to what year’s COLA might be. Whether you’re happy with the number, though, depends on how you look at things.

What we know about 2026’s Social Security COLA so far

In 2025, Social Security recipients saw their benefits increase by 2.5%. And many seniors were unhappy with that small a raise.

So far, next year’s COLA is potentially looking to be more promising. The Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group, is estimating that 2026’s raise will come in at 2.7%.

Of course, this number could wiggle upward or downward, depending on what inflation has in store for August and September. But either way, there’s a good chance seniors on Social Security will get a slightly larger raise in 2026 than they did this year.

Should you be happy with a 2.7% COLA?

That depends. On one hand, it’s higher than this year’s raise, and it’s not nothing. There have been many COLAs in the past that were much smaller (including a number of 0% COLA years).

On the other hand, 2.7% is hardly a large boost. If you’ve been struggling to keep up with your living expenses, you may find that a 2.7% Social Security COLA doesn’t do all that much for you.

But there’s another silver lining to a 2.7% COLA, or something in that vicinity. A moderate COLA is an indication that inflation isn’t rising at such a rapid pace.

There’s fear that in the coming months, tariffs will drive living costs up — not just for seniors, but Americans on a whole. If next year’s COLA ends up somewhere in the ballpark of 2.7%, it will be an indication of economic stability.

Think about your lifestyle carefully if you’re COLA-dependent

All told, you’ll have to wait until mid-October to see what the official word is on next year’s COLA. But if you’re worried it won’t be enough, it may be time to reassess your financial situation.

Think about the things you spend money on and the value they bring you. You may not be able to cut back on food or electricity, but you may be able to sell a nicer car and replace it with a cheaper one. Or you may be able to give up a car altogether if you live in a walkable neighborhood and no longer have a job to commute to on a daily basis.

Another thing worth considering is part-time work if you’re able to do it. Not only might that give you something to do with your time, but it could also improve your finances a lot more than a Social Security COLA — even a larger one.

Retirees on a fixed income often need every dollar they can get to cover their costs. That’s one reason why so many seniors are eager to find out how much their Social Security benefits will increase each year.

Social Security benefit payments go up in most years because they must do so to keep pace with rising prices. Since the cost of goods and services increases over time, retirees would quickly face financial trouble if their benefit checks didn’t increase, too.

Unfortunately, while seniors can expect to see a benefits increase in 2026, it is almost assuredly going to be a disappointing one. Here’s why retirees on Social Security may be mad when they see their checks next year — and also why they shouldn’t be overly concerned.

Retirees are not going to like next year’s Social Security raise

Retirees are almost sure to be disappointed in their Social Security raise in 2026 because it won’t be a very big one relative to the amount that benefits have risen in recent years. In fact, here’s what COLAs have looked like lately:

• 2020: 1.6%
• 2021: 1.3%
• 2022: 5.9%
• 2023: 8.7%
• 2024: 3.2%
• 2025: 2.5%

Since the pandemic ended, retirees have seen some of the highest COLAs in years. Anyone who retired in the last couple of years may expect that this is the norm, and even longtime retirees have likely grown accustomed to getting big benefit increases.

That’s changing next year, though. While we won’t know the exact cost-of-living adjustment until all the numbers from the third quarter are in, it’s possible to make projections based on current changes so far this year to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). That’s the price index used to set COLAs, as the annual benefits increase is based on year-over-year price changes as measured by the CPI-W.

In mid-May, the Senior Citizens League used CPI-W data to project what the COLA will look like next year. According to this senior advocacy group, the estimate for the 2026 COLA is 2.4%. This is a slight increase from the prediction last month, which was 2.3%. If this number holds and retirees get just a 2.3% or 2.4% raise, it will be the lowest since 2021.

Of course, this is not yet the official announcement, and things could change. But all evidence suggests that retirees will not see their Social Security checks go up very much next year at all — and this is probably going to disappoint many who were counting on a bigger payment being deposited when 2026 rolls around.

A low benefits increase may not be a cause for disappointment

While it’s understandable that seniors would be upset about seeing only a small increase in their Social Security payments, when you look at the big picture, this may not be such a bad thing. See, COLAs are directly based on inflation, so the raises were high in the past few years because inflation was surging.

In general, retirees tend not to benefit from periods of high inflation. In fact, it typically hurts them because their savings may lose ground, and many have conservative investment portfolios that struggle to beat high rates of inflation, as retirees can’t afford to take too many risks with money they’re relying on for support.

So, since a smaller COLA means that inflation isn’t as big of an issue, retirees could end up better off in the end, as their savings stop losing buying power so fast — even if it does mean their Social Security benefits increase is smaller. Retirees should start preparing for the reality of a smaller COLA sooner rather than later, before that first check of 2026 hits their account and they find themselves facing an unpleasant surprise.