clearer – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com Latest Crypto News Mon, 19 May 2025 02:57:41 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.7 https://i0.wp.com/earlybirdsinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/cropped-New-Project-2024-12-17T235703.455.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 clearer – Earlybirds Invest https://earlybirdsinvest.com 32 32 240146708 The Forerunner 570 & 970 have made Garmin’s tiered strategy clearer than ever https://earlybirdsinvest.com/the-forerunner-570-970-have-made-garmins-tiered-strategy-clearer-than-ever/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/the-forerunner-570-970-have-made-garmins-tiered-strategy-clearer-than-ever/#respond Mon, 19 May 2025 02:57:41 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/the-forerunner-570-970-have-made-garmins-tiered-strategy-clearer-than-ever/

Sunday Runday

Lloyd, the Android Central mascot, break-dancing

(Image credit: Android Central)

In this weekly column, Android Central Wearables Editor Michael Hicks talks about the world of wearables, apps, and fitness tech related to running and health, in his quest to get faster and more fit.

The Garmin Forerunner 570 and 970 are more expensive than their predecessors. Other 2025 Garmin watches skimped on new features to keep prices low, so I’m happy Garmin didn’t hold back on its Forerunners. But it’s also become clearer that Garmin doesn’t feel a need to compete with other brands’ features — only against itself.

The jump between the $599 Forerunner 965 and $749 Forerunner 970 is significant. You get the newest Elevate v5 generation for better HR accuracy, ECGs and skin temperature readings, flashlight, mic & speaker for calling and commands, sapphire crystal protection, and new metrics like running tolerance.

Or if you’re weighing the $549 Forerunner 270 against the $449 Forerunner 265, you also get the gen5 HR accuracy boost, doubled screen brightness on a larger display, the same mic & speaker, and skin temperature with heat acclimation.

The Instinct 3 and Vivoactive 6 stuck to last-gen HR sensors, treading water on hardware so that Garmin could keep them in their fixed price ranges. I feared Garmin would do the same with its Forerunners, making us wait until 2027 for real changes.

That’s why I’m excited for the Forerunner 970, but also feeling frustrated at how Garmin holds back mid-tier watches like the Forerunner 570.

As prices rise, held-back features are harder to accept

A map view during a hike activity on the Garmin Fenix 8, showing 0.08 miles to the next junction

(Image credit: Michael Hicks / Android Central)

The $499 Instinct 3 didn’t have offline maps despite being an “adventure” watch, while cheaper rival watches like the $349 COROS PACE Pro and Suunto Race S did. I complained at the time, but Garmin hadn’t given it storage space for maps, prioritizing a lightweight CPU for battery life.

The $549 Forerunner 570 does have storage space for maps, and no need to hold back the processor. There’s no logistical reason it shouldn’t support maps; even if they’re not pre-downloaded like on the 970, Garmin could let you download a specific region’s topo data, at least.

The only real explanation is that their absence makes people more likely to pay for the 970.

An ECG summary page on the Garmin Venu 3 saying the author's sinus rhythm is normal

(Image credit: Michael Hicks / Android Central)

The same applies to the 570 health sensors. I obviously appreciate the enhanced HR accuracy and skin temperature. But every other gen5 watch has ECGs, including the $449 Venu 3. And outside of Garmin, ECGs are the norm, from mainstream watches to fitness rivals like the COROS APEX and Polar Vantage series.

But Garmin ignores the context of its rivals; the only competitor that matters is the Forerunner 970. That needs to stand out, so the 570 misses out. Heart health warnings become a $750 bargaining chip.

It’s a common-enough strategy for Garmin. With the excellent Forerunner 165, you can’t see your training load even though it clearly calculates load in the background to determine your VO2 Max, recovery time, and daily suggested workouts with anaerobic or low aerobic focuses. Blocking that data upsells you to the Forerunner 265.

I accepted that artificial feature block because the 165 costs $249, and training load is still fairly niche. But Garmin watch prices keep creeping up. It’s harder to swallow blocked features when these mid-tier models cost much more than a Galaxy or Apple Watch.

With Garmin watches, every component has a price tag

The Garmin Forerunner 970 rendered in a black void, angled from the bottom to emphasize the titanium bezel and the screen showing a phone call.

(Image credit: Garmin)

Smartwatch “tiers” are common enough these days, and every company wants to upsell you. But they’re also selective about which features are price-locked because they know it’ll look bad if a competitor offers something for much less.

You obviously pay more for steel or titanium casing, or other hardware boosts like better battery life. But otherwise, they squeeze most features into the mainline model while sticking to the same pricing every year (aside from the occasional inflationary boost).

With Garmin, every new feature to modernize its watches comes with a price bump. MIP-to-AMOLED display swaps for the Forerunner and Instinct lineups cost tacked on another $50–100 to the usual price. On the Fenix 8, collectively adding AMOLED, better sensors, and a mic & speaker added $200 to the price.

You won’t find dual-band GPS on any watch $300 or less, nor offline maps on any sub-$600 watch. And even though Garmin’s Gen5 HR sensors came out in 2023, it will keep using the Gen4 sensors on “cheaper” models like the $500 Instinct 3 today.

I don’t know how much the components cost Garmin, but it wants us to know that it’ll pass that cost onto us.

The Garmin Forerunner 570 on a woman's wrist at the track, the screen showing her taking a phone call.

(Image credit: Garmin)

Other factors like tariff concerns bump up pricing, too. But Garmin’s 2025 strategy establishes a clear Garmin precedent: Once a watch costs a certain price, you shouldn’t expect new hardware at that price, nor features already established at the flagship tier.

The next version will either cost the same but make minimal upgrades, or add new tools and cost much more.

Garmin treats any new feature as an opportunity to ask athletes for more money in exchange for more value. And it can do this because it doesn’t feel as much pressure to price its fitness watches competitively as other brands.

Garmin users like its ecosystem too much — or are too invested in it — to leave. And so Garmin accepts the negative press around Connect+ paywalled features and price-locks the coolest new features because its loyal customers will pay $750 or more for them, even if they grumble about it.

If you think the Forerunner 970 and 570 are too expensive, then at least you know the last-gen Garmin watches are still available — and discounted for Memorial Day, so a Forerunner 965 costs $50 less than the 570.

Otherwise, we have to accept this new normal with new Garmin watches.

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Warren Buffett's Resounding Message to Wall Street, Delivered Over a Number of Years, Couldn't Be Clearer. And It May Change the Way You Invest Right Now. https://earlybirdsinvest.com/warren-buffetts-resounding-message-to-wall-street-delivered-over-a-number-of-years-couldnt-be-clearer-and-it-may-change-the-way-you-invest-right-now/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/warren-buffetts-resounding-message-to-wall-street-delivered-over-a-number-of-years-couldnt-be-clearer-and-it-may-change-the-way-you-invest-right-now/#respond Sun, 30 Mar 2025 23:46:22 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/warren-buffetts-resounding-message-to-wall-street-delivered-over-a-number-of-years-couldnt-be-clearer-and-it-may-change-the-way-you-invest-right-now/

Investors look to Warren Buffett for guidance because he’s proven he can weather any market storm. That’s even earned him the nickname the Oracle of Omaha (his hometown), as over time, he’s generally made just the right moves at just the right time. A recent example: Buffett sold positions in S&P 500 index funds in the fourth quarter, locking in gains before the benchmark went on to decline.

This top investor doesn’t look into a crystal ball when planning his moves, but instead considers key elements like valuation. And the index’s shift into one of its most expensive periods ever may have helped prompt him to hit the “sell” button on the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust in the quarter.

Of course, Buffett isn’t one to stand up and comment on the situation with each market movement. But over the years, the billionaire has offered many thoughts on his strategy, the market, and investing in general. For example, we know he appreciates quality companies trading for reasonable prices; we also know he doesn’t go for trends, and favors holding stocks for the long term.

Over the years, Buffett has repeated one particular idea several times, in different ways. This resounding message to Wall Street couldn’t be clearer, and it may change the way you see the market and invest right now. Let’s listen in.

Warren Buffett is seen at an event.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

A changing investing environment

First, though, let’s take a quick look at the recent investing environment. Stocks soared over the past two years on optimism about a lower-interest-rate environment ahead, and the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) to transform how work is done. Lower rates offer companies an easier path to growth — and AI has been seen as a technology that could unlock efficiency, cost savings, and more for companies.

All of this drove stocks to one of their most expensive levels ever as measured by the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio, a metric that considers stock price and earnings over a 10-year period to adjust for shifts in the economy. It reached a level of 35, something it’s only done twice before since the S&P 500 launched as a 500-company index in the 1950s.

S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio Chart

S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio data by YCharts.

However, stocks have recently retreated on concerns that President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imports will hurt companies’ earnings and the general economy. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both slipped into correction territory earlier this month, though the S&P 500 has since exited the correction zone.

Two key Buffett quotes

Now let’s turn to Buffett’s message to Wall Street, one that he’s repeated over the years. Two quotes in particular express it:

“The best chance to deploy capital is when things are going down,” he once said. And, in a letter to shareholders in the 1980s, Buffett wrote that he and his team at Berkshire Hathaway aim to “be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”

This message is particularly interesting right now, amid market declines. You may be asking yourself whether now is really a good time to buy stocks — as stocks and indexes slip, investing may seem scary. What if you buy a stock today and it falls even more tomorrow?

But Buffett tells us that times like these are actually the best moments to get in on the market. Why is this? Because as stocks fall, so do their valuations. As a result, some of the recently beaten-down players will offer you wonderful opportunities. This is the time to “be greedy … when others are fearful.”

Cheap tech stocks

For example, well-established technology stocks with bright future prospects — such as Nvidia (NVDA -1.51%) and Meta Platforms (META -4.22%) — have seen their shares drop into bargain territory. Today, Nvidia trades for 25 times forward earnings estimates, and Meta for 24. These could be fantastic buys for growth investors.

And even if the stock you buy today falls further in the coming days, that’s OK. When you hold on for the long term — and that’s the best way to invest — near-term fluctuations won’t crush your returns.

So now you may be wondering if Buffett, too, has been buying stocks in recent days. The billionaire was a net seller of stocks last year as the market soared, but it’s too early to know what moves he’s been making since the start of 2025. We’ll have to wait for his 13F filing in May for that information.

That said, he isn’t known for making rash decisions or jumping into something on a whim — so we may not see a sharp turnaround, with Buffett scooping up stocks like hotcakes. His words don’t mean that he piles into stocks during every market downturn. They just mean that during these times, he expects to find more opportunities to get in on quality stocks at the right price than he would in soaring markets.

All of this may ease your mind as you watch the indexes fluctuate these days. Buffett’s words may inspire you to seize this moment, and instead of fleeing the market, to look for smart buys that may boost your portfolio over time.

Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors.

Adria Cimino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Berkshire Hathaway, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Billionaire Money Managers Weighed In on Nvidia Long Before It Released Its Full-Year Results — and Their Sentiment Couldn't Be Clearer https://earlybirdsinvest.com/billionaire-money-managers-weighed-in-on-nvidia-long-before-it-released-its-full-year-results-and-their-sentiment-couldnt-be-clearer/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/billionaire-money-managers-weighed-in-on-nvidia-long-before-it-released-its-full-year-results-and-their-sentiment-couldnt-be-clearer/#respond Thu, 27 Feb 2025 10:15:14 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/billionaire-money-managers-weighed-in-on-nvidia-long-before-it-released-its-full-year-results-and-their-sentiment-couldnt-be-clearer/ Some of Wall Street’s most prominent asset managers have spoken volumes with their trading activity.

Data isn’t hard to come by on Wall Street. Between earnings season — the six-week period each quarter where the vast majority of S&P 500 companies unveil their operating results — and economic data releases from the U.S. government, investors are rarely struggling for catalysts that can move the broader market.

But among these market-moving data dumps, nothing has been more anticipated than Nvidia (NVDA 3.67%) lifting the hood on its fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year operating results (Nvidia’s fiscal 2025 ended on Jan. 26, 2025) following the closing bell on Feb. 26.

Nvidia has been the face of the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution for the last two years. The company’s Hopper (H100) graphics processing unit (GPU) and next-generation Blackwell GPU architecture are the undisputed top options in enterprise AI-accelerated data centers, and are what allow AI software and systems to make split-second decisions.

A money manager using a stylus and smartphone to analyze a stock chart displayed on a computer monitor.

Image source: Getty Images.

Although investors should have a good bead on what to expect from Nvidia following the release of its operating results, as of this writing on Feb. 25, we’ve already witnessed a number of billionaire money managers weigh in — and their sentiment regarding Wall Street’s AI darling couldn’t be clearer.

Wall Street’s prominent billionaire asset managers speak volumes with their actions

In addition to publicly traded companies reporting their operating results on a quarterly basis, institutional investors with at least $100 million in assets under management are required to file Form 13F with the Securities and Exchange Commission no later than 45 calendar days following the end to a quarter.

A 13F provides a snapshot that allows investors to see which stocks Wall Street’s most prominent money managers have been buying and selling. Even though these filings are stale for active hedge funds, they can still clue investors into the stocks, industries, sectors, and trends that have the full attention of top-tier asset managers.

As you can imagine, Nvidia’s historic ascent tied to the AI revolution made it a popular company for billionaire investors to keep an eye on. But based on 13F filings over the last two years, billionaire money managers have been decisive sellers of Nvidia stock. Note: All figures below have been adjusted for Nvidia’s historic 10-for-1 forward stock split in June 2024.

  • Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management: Sold 39,795,532 shares of Nvidia stock since the first quarter of 2023, equating to an 80% reduction.
  • David Tepper of Appaloosa Management: Sold 9,569,999 shares since the third quarter of 2023, which works out to a 93% haircut.
  • Stanley Druckenmiller of Duquesne Family Office: Sold the entirety of his fund’s 9,500,750-share stake since the second quarter of 2023.
  • Stephen Mandel of Lone Pine Capital: Sold his fund’s entire stake of 6,416,490 shares of Nvidia since the second quarter of 2023.

The “why?” behind this persistent selling activity can likely be explained by five factors.

A businessperson pressing the sell button on an oversized digital screen.

Image source: Getty Images.

Billionaire investors are selling Nvidia stock hand over fist

The most-logical of all reasons for these four billionaire investors to ring the register is simple profit-taking. These are relatively active fund managers who likely recognize that Nvidia’s roughly $3 trillion increase in market value isn’t something that happens to public companies on a regular basis. The worry is that this selling is tied to much more than just simple profit-taking.

A second possibility is that billionaire fund managers were concerned about an inevitable uptick in competition for Nvidia. Interestingly, while direct competitors tend to get the most attention, internal competitive pressure might be the bigger concern.

Many of Nvidia’s top customers by net sales are developing their own AI chips, with the goal of using this hardware in their AI-accelerated data centers. Even if these AI GPUs fail to match Nvidia’s chips in terms of computing speed, they’ll be notably cheaper and not backlogged. In other words, Nvidia is at serious risk of losing out on valuable data center real estate with its top customers and seeing its pricing power weaken over time.

The regulatory environment for AI chips and related equipment marks a third potential sell-side catalyst for billionaire money managers. The Joe Biden administration clamped down on exports of high-powered AI chips to China from 2022 through 2024. Donald Trump’s administration seems intent on keeping America’s AI intellectual property protected from the world’s No. 2 economy. This means billions of dollars of Nvidia’s quarterly sales to China are now at risk.

Historic precedent is the fourth worry that may have encouraged Laffont, Tepper, Druckenmiller, and Mandel to head for the exit. Every next-big-thing technology for three decades has navigated its way through a bubble-bursting event early in its existence. This is a reflection of investors consistently overestimating the adoption rate and/or utility of a new innovation. If history were to rhyme and the AI bubble bursts, no company would, arguably, be hit harder than Nvidia.

The fifth catalyst that may be responsible for spurring aggressive selling activity by billionaire fund managers is Nvidia’s valuation. While it’s not egregiously expensive on the basis of forward-year earnings, Nvidia’s price-to-sales (P/S) ratio peaked at more than 42 last summer. Businesses that have been on the leading edge of next-big-thing trends have often peaked at respective P/S ratios of roughly 30 to 40 over the last three decades.

Although all eyes have been on Nvidia’s operating results for weeks, billionaire investors spoke with their wallets long before the company’s full-year report came into focus.

Sean Williams has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Bitcoin completes 81 days in consolidation as traders await clearer macro signals https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-completes-81-days-in-consolidation-as-traders-await-clearer-macro-signals/ https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-completes-81-days-in-consolidation-as-traders-await-clearer-macro-signals/#respond Tue, 18 Feb 2025 02:37:08 +0000 https://earlybirdsinvest.com/bitcoin-completes-81-days-in-consolidation-as-traders-await-clearer-macro-signals/

Bitcoin (BTC) has remained locked in a tight trading range of $91,000 to $102,000 for the past 81 days, reflecting traders waiting for clearer macroeconomic signals before making decisive moves, according to Bitfinex.

The firm’s latest Alpha report highlighted that BTC has shown little directional momentum despite escalating global geopolitical tensions. Its weekly performance posted only a modest 4.3% peak-to-trough movement and closed with a slight 0.82% gain.

This period of stagnation has also impacted altcoins, many of which have struggled amid uncertainty. The broader altcoin market has significantly underperformed Bitcoin, with meme coins like PEPE suffering dramatic losses — declining 46.4% over the past month.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price stability suggests that capital flows away from altcoins and into the leading crypto, further reinforcing its role as the dominant digital asset.

Altcoins tank

The global altcoin market cap has dropped by $234 billion in just 14 days. Despite this downturn, Bitcoin has held relatively steady, signaling a growing divergence between the flagship crypto and the rest of the market. 

According to the report, this trend highlights Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with macroeconomic conditions and its maturation as a risk asset.

Another crucial indicator, the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP), turned bearish on Feb. 15 for the first time since June 2024. This shift suggests that traders may be reducing their risk exposure, potentially leading to further downside pressure. 

However, the IFP remains above its 90-day moving average, leaving room for a potential market rebound.

Realized losses

Despite the choppy price action, Bitcoin investors have recorded some of the largest realized losses of the current bull market cycle.

Short-term holders (STHs) have been particularly affected. The cohort realized $520 million in losses, mirroring levels seen in previous market pullbacks.

Meanwhile, Long-term holders (LTHs) have continued to hold their positions, reinforcing the sentiment that Bitcoin’s consolidation phase is a natural correction within an ongoing bull market.

While bullish catalysts, such as Abu Dhabi’s investment in BlackRock’s Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), have provided some support, traders remain wary.

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