Bitcoin slipped 0.11% in the past 24 hours to $116,702, according to CoinDesk Data, but remains up 25% year to date, second only to gold’s 29% gain among major asset classes, according to data shared by financial strategist Charlie Bilello on X.

2025 Performance so far

As of Aug. 8, bitcoin’s 25% year-to-date return ranked behind only gold’s 29.3% advance. Other major asset classes have posted more modest gains, with emerging market stocks (VWO) up 15.6%, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) up 12.7% and U.S. large caps (SPY) rising 9.4%. Meanwhile, U.S. mid caps (MDY) and small caps (IWM) 0.2% have only gained 0.8%, respectively. This marks the first time gold and bitcoin have occupied the top two positions in Bilello’s annual asset class rankings since records began.

2011–2025 Cumulative returns

Over the longer term, bitcoin has delivered an extraordinary 38,897,420% total return since 2011 — a figure that dwarfs all other asset classes in the dataset. Gold’s 126% cumulative return over the same period puts it in the middle of the pack, trailing equity benchmarks like the Nasdaq 100 (1101%) and U.S. large caps (559%), as well as mid caps (316%), small caps (244%) and emerging market stocks (57%). Based on Bilello’s figures, bitcoin’s total return has exceeded gold’s by more than 308,000 times over the past 14 years.

2011–2025 Annualized returns

When measured on an annualized basis, bitcoin’s dominance is equally clear. The flagship cryptocurrency has delivered a 141.7% average annual gain since 2011, compared with 5.7% for gold, 18.6% for the Nasdaq 100, 13.8% for U.S. large caps and 4.4% to 16.4% for other major equity and real estate indexes. Gold’s long-term stability has made it a valuable hedge in certain market cycles, but its pace of appreciation has been far slower than bitcoin’s exponential climb.

Gold vs. bitcoin, according to Peter Brandt

Renowned trader Peter Brandt weighed in on Aug. 8, contrasting gold’s merits as a store of value with bitcoin’s potential to surpass all fiat alternatives. “Some think gold is a great store of value — and it is. But the ultimate store of value will prove to be bitcoin,” he said on X, sharing a long-term chart of the U.S. dollar’s purchasing power. His comments echo the growing narrative that bitcoin’s scarcity and decentralization make it uniquely positioned to outperform traditional hedges over time.

Technical Analysis Highlights

• According to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis data model, between Aug. 8 at 21:00 UTC and Aug. 9 at 20:00 UTC, bitcoin traded within a $1,534.42 range (1.31%) from $116,352.52 to $117,886.44.
• Price opened near $116,900 and moved sideways before surging during Asian hours, climbing from $116,440 to $117,886 between 05:00 UTC and 10:00 UTC on Aug. 9, with 24-hour trading volume exceeding 9,000 BTC during these intervals.
• Strong buying emerged near $116,420 at 05:00 UTC, while selling pressure intensified around the $117,886 high.
• Bitcoin closed the session at $116,517, down 0.32% from the open, with defined support at $116,400–$116,500 and resistance at $117,400–$117,900
• In the final hour of the analysis period (Aug. 9, 19:06–20:05 UTC), bitcoin remained under downward pressure within a $195.11 band, sliding from $116,629.40 to $116,519.29 (-0.09%).
• The largest final-hour volume spike occurred at 19:27 UTC, when 296.43 BTC changed hands as price tested $116,547 support.
• Recovery attempts were repeatedly capped near $116,600–$116,713, in line with earlier intraday resistance.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

S&P 500 futures extended losses early Wednesday with a 1.6% intraday drop, falling to 444.32 and erasing nearly two days of gains.

The move came as investors digested rising uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy, including potential new tariffs targeting Chinese semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.

As of 8:00 A.M. GMT, futures on the benchmark index were down more than seven points from the previous close of 451.56.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, continued to underperform across a range of global assets over the last 24 hours. Trading around $83,400 at the time of writing, the digital asset moved mostly sideways after retracing steep overnight losses, diverging from the broader flight-to-safety shift seen in traditional markets.

Cross-asset divergence: Bitcoin stalls as bonds, gold catch bids

The multi-asset comparison chart below captures the disconnect in market behavior since yesterday’s U.S. market open.

Gold rose 2.7%, and U.S. 10-year bond prices gained 0.55%, reinforcing a defensive tilt in investor positioning. Even Chinese 10-year bonds, traditionally more insulated, posted a modest rise of 0.19%.

Equities, however, faced broad selling pressure. E-mini S&P futures (ESM2025) dropped 2.06% while oil slid 1.13%, both reflecting renewed macroeconomic caution following the White House’s confirmation that U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports have effectively reached 145%.

The losses come amid a new national security investigation into Chinese semiconductor and pharmaceutical exports, which markets interpreted as a prelude to further tariff escalation.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) fell 0.44% over the same period, partially due to weak sentiment surrounding further trade decoupling.

Bitcoin fell 2.8% over the same period, underperforming every other major asset class in the chart, including oil and S&P futures, which recorded smaller losses.

Trade uncertainty drives defensive allocation, leaves Bitcoin on sidelines

Market responses appear to reflect the growing weight of U.S.-China tensions on capital allocation decisions.

CNBC reported that China’s Q1 GDP rose 5.4%, exceeding expectations, yet investment banks cut annual forecasts, citing concerns about weakened exports to the U.S. and a sharp drop in capital expenditure.

With the share of Chinese exports to the U.S. now at 14.7%, down from 19.2% in 2018, global supply chains appear to be undergoing a sustained fragmentation.

The reaction across equities and bonds suggests rising demand for hedges and liquid assets, but Bitcoin’s stagnation may imply a reassessment of its current utility in macro hedging portfolios.

In contrast to gold, which set a new record high near $3,261 per ounce, Bitcoin’s price action does not currently reflect similar demand despite inflationary risks associated with rising tariffs.

The underperformance may also reflect uncertain signals around spot ETF flows, even as institutional narratives continue to shift toward Bitcoin’s role as a macro hedge.

However, outside of the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has shown relative strength compared to traditional assets since the start of April, gaining over 5% while S&P 500 futures (ESM2025) declined more than 4%, oil dropped nearly 13%, and the dollar index (DXY) fell 4.5%.

Despite its recent dip, Bitcoin remains one of the better performers over this multi-week window, trailing only gold, which has surged nearly 6%.

Semiconductor tensions mount as Nvidia flags $5.5B export risk

Further compounding market uncertainty, Nvidia disclosed that U.S. government licensing requirements would indefinitely restrict exports of its H20 AI chip to China, citing national security risks.

Per the BBC, the company projected a $5.5 billion hit to earnings from inventory-related charges and unfulfilled orders. The move was widely interpreted as reinforcing a broader U.S. strategy to curtail China’s access to cutting-edge semiconductor technologies.

Semiconductor-linked equities were sharply lower in Europe. Dutch chipmaking equipment firm ASML dropped 6.5% following a miss on net bookings and guidance, citing “export uncertainty,” while peer ASM International fell 4.5%.

As CNBC noted, these losses weighed heavily on the pan-European Stoxx 600, which fell 0.8% at the open. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 were also down approximately 1%, with investor sentiment further pressured by macro data showing weaker-than-expected UK inflation and declining beer sales at Heineken despite revenue beating expectations.

Outlook

Over the past day, the sharp divergence in asset performance emphasizes the extent to which traditional hedges like gold and sovereign bonds have reasserted themselves amid renewed trade conflict.

Bitcoin’s muted response, particularly in contrast to gold’s upward surge and bond inflows, raises fresh questions about its short-term sensitivity to global macro catalysts and its positioning in institutional portfolios during geopolitical shocks.

With the White House emphasizing that future negotiations are contingent on Chinese concessions, markets appear to be pricing in a prolonged standoff.

For now, Bitcoin’s relative stasis amid surging tariffs and falling equity futures signals cautious positioning by investors still weighing the asset’s evolving correlation to broader risk markets.

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