Circuit – Earlybirds Invest

Legal battle concludes, ETF odds remain high

Under the settlement terms, XRP will not be classified as a security, representing a major victory for Ripple. Each side will cover its own legal costs, according to the court filing.

Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty previously described the agreement as closing a chapter that has overshadowed the crypto industry for nearly four years.

The outcome places Ripple alongside other crypto firms like Coinbase that have successfully resolved enforcement actions with the SEC. Further, it removes regulatory uncertainty around XRP’s status, keeping the odds of approval of XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) high.

In February, Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart predicted 65% odds of approval for spot XRP ETFs in the US.

Polymarket bettors placed their odds of such an approval happening this year at 98% in early June, followed by a 10% slide after the SEC delayed decisions on multiple filings the same month.

Despite the sliding odds on the crypto-based prediction market, Balchunas and Seyffart raised their odds to “90% or higher” on June 20.

Polymarket traders continued to oppose the analysts, taking the odds to 62% in early August after the news that Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw opposed the approval.

However, Balchunas reiterated the high odds of approval of XRP ETFs:

“Interesting, trades reporting how Polymarket odds of XRP ETF approval went down to 62% after the votes were disclosed showing Crenshaw voting no, but a) she’s gonna vote no on EVERYTHING and b) it’s meaningless, she’s outnumbered = we haven’t changed our odds, still at 95%.”

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President Donald Trump has nominated Eric Tung, a corporate lawyer known for his work with cryptocurrency companies, for a seat on the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit.

The nomination was sent to the Senate on July 15 for consideration. The Ninth Circuit covers several western states, including California, Washington, Oregon, and Hawaii, where many technology and cryptocurrency businesses are based.

Tung has been a partner at the law firm Jones Day since 2019. Court filings revealed that he worked with the Blockchain Association in its lawsuit against the US Treasury Department, which was brought by six Tornado Cash users after the department sanctioned the platform.

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Additionally, he represented an investor who sued HDR Global Trading, the parent company of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX

$105.06K

If confirmed, Tung would help decide appeals involving businesses from Silicon Valley and other areas in the court’s jurisdiction.

However, the group Accountable.US stated that Tung has a history of helping cryptocurrency firms avoid government oversight.

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According to a public statement on July 17, the group said:

Tung has built his career representing crypto firms seeking to avoid government regulation. He served as counsel for a stablecoin provider in a brief arguing standalone sales of stablecoins are not securities.

Accountable.US explained that Tung previously worked on a legal brief for the Blockchain Association opposing rules on permanent smart contracts.

Recently, President Trump met with House Republicans to regain support for three stalled crypto bills. What did he say? Read the full story.

Legal battle concludes, ETF odds remain high

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