Bitcoin punched a fresh record of over $122,000 on the morning of July 14th, extending its month-long rally to over 16%. Against this backdrop, Charles Edwards (founder and CEO of Capriol Investment, a digital asset hedge fund) acknowledges that it is only in the “early stage” of a much broader liquidity-driven boom that could control the rest of 2025 and beyond.

Bitcoin Liquidity Super Cycle

In the latest Capriol newsletter, Edwards argues that “money and liquidity provide a capital flow background, and Bitcoin finance companies are the funnels.” He dismisses the idea that the $20,000 advance over the past two weeks is a technical accident and instead refers to deep macro currents that have been built for months.

“The biggest bitcoin rallies occur when the market is net shortage of USD,” he writes, pointing to Capriol’s own “USD positioning” gauge, aggregating futures data across major currencies. The metric has been “deeply negative” since early summer, indicating that global investors are critically betting on the dollar and supporting hard assets.

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Another pillar is credits. The BBB rated corporate bond spread has been shattered more closely since 2020 since spring, a classic risk-on signal in the traditional market that has nearly mapped tics to major Bitcoin up maubes. “More evidence,” Edwards says, “Bitcoin is a Tradfi asset.”

Perhaps the strongest tail wind is the growth of raw money. Global M3 is enlarged with 9% clips per year. This is a historically extreme rate that Capriol has stated that it ultimately coincided with an average 12-month Bitcoin return of around 460%. Edwards warns that Bitcoin is unlikely to repeat its size as a trillion dollar asset today.

Capriole’s framework is also based on the historical lead rug relationship between gold and Bitcoin. Once bullion entered a meaningful breakout, Bitcoin tended to continue after 3-4 months. Gold’s early 2025 surge and its outperformance and global stocks therefore provided “a strong support for the decline in demand for fiat money in the current market and the favor of hard money,” Edwards argues. Bitcoin has risen 28% since Capriol flagged the gold move in April.

The stocks also offer green lights. The New York Stock Exchange Advance and Deklein lines lost to new highs last week, but Capriol’s “Equity Premium” indicator reset to zero in late May.

All of these data points are fed to the company’s flagship Bitcoin macro index, a combination of numerous public and proprietary variables that Capriol uses to form the fund’s trading exposure. Even after the latest vertical movement of the coin, the index is “still in a strong, positive growth area,” reported Edwards. It suggests that the underlying drivers – fluid, risk emotion, and chain activity “stays intact.”

Bitcoin Ministry of Finance – Company Flywheel

But perhaps the most striking piece of the puzzle is outside of pure macros. Edwards highlights the emergence of Bitcoin Finance Companies (TCS). It will organize vehicles raising fiat capital in the equity or debt market and roll out to Spot BTC as a new “major bubble dynamics of this cycle.”

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The quarterly inflow into TCS reached $15 billion in the second quarter, with Capriol having at least 145 such companies pursuing their strategy. In the market capitalization expanded on balance sheet coin paper, Edwards believes “is likely to help add more than $1 trillion to Bitcoin’s market capitalization next year,” they expand on balance sheet coin paper.

He rejects the notion that this corresponds to unhealthy centralization. “If Bitcoin is one day a basic money, we need to scale it to tens of trillions to flatten the volatility.

Edwards emphasizes that his analysis is on the horizon for months. “When Bitcoin sees a massive gathering, there’s always a strong pullback and local overheating,” he admits, adding that the newsletter intentionally sidelines short-term on-chain bubbles, focusing on “the big picture and driving factors for the next six months.”

Still, Capriol’s conclusions are clear as Central Bank’s liquidity is abundant, dollars are crowded, credit stress is calming, and a structurally new pool of corporate buyers intervening. The liquidity tap is wide open and only supplied with Bitcoin Supercycle.

“The early adopters today may be considered speculators, but that will become very obvious in hindsight. After the Treasury waves become the government’s financial waves (the next cycle).

At the time of pressing, BTC was traded for $122,438.

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Armed assailants have reportedly attempted to kidnap the daughter and grandson of a crypto exchange executive in France.

The news television network France 24 reports that four masked men attacked a couple and their child in broad daylight in Paris on Tuesday.

Video footage shows that three of the perpetrators jumped out of a white delivery van to force the woman and her child into the vehicle. They also beat the woman’s partner, who tried to intervene.

But the woman, the daughter of France-based crypto exchange platform Paymium CEO and co-founder Pierre Noizat, resisted. She grabbed one of the attackers’ handguns and threw it away.

The commotion caught the attention of passersby who tried to help, including one man who brought out a fire extinguisher. The attackers eventually ended up fleeing in their waiting vehicle.

The victims sustained injuries and were taken to the hospital.

The attack follows a series of incidents targeting crypto entrepreneurs in France. In January, kidnappers abducted crypto wallet firm Ledger co-founder David Balland and his wife and demanded a large ransom in cryptocurrency. The police managed to rescue the couple and the suspects, including the alleged mastermind, are now detained.

Last month, masked men also kidnapped the father of a crypto millionaire in the French capital and demanded ransom. The police were able to locate the place of detention and freed the man during a raid.

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Scammers are impersonating the BianLian ransomware gang in fake ransom notes sent to US companies via snail mail through the United States Postal Service.

The fake ransom notes were first reported by Guidepoint Security today, with BleepingComputer later being sent a scan of the note from a CEO who received the same letter.

The envelopes for these ransom notes claim to be from the “BIANLIAN Group” and have a return address located in an office building in Boston, Massachusets:

BIANLIAN GROUP
24 FEDERAL ST, SUITE 100
BOSTON, MA 02110

In the letter shared with BleepingComputer, the envelope shows it was mailed on February 25th, 2025. This mailing date is the same as the one seen by Arctic Wolf, who also reported on the scam today.

The letters are being mailed to the CEO of the companies at their corporate mailing address and show that they were processed through a postal facility in Boston, with the envelope marked, “Time Sensitive Read Immediately.”

The envelopes contain a ransom note addressed to the company’s CEO or another executive, claiming to be from the BianLian ransomware operation. According to notes reviewed by BleepingComputer, they are tailored to the company’s industry, with different types of allegedly stolen data corresponding to the company’s activities.

For example, fake BianLian ransom notes sent to healthcare companies claim that patient and employee information was stolen, while those targeting product-based businesses allege the exposure of customer orders and employee data.

“I regret to inform you that we have gained access to [REDACTED] systems and over the past several weeks have exported thousands of data files, including customer order and contact information, employee information with IDs, SSNs, payroll reports, and other sensitive HR documents, company financial documents, legal documents, investor and shareholder information, invoices, and tax documents,” reads a fake BianLian ransom note.

The mailed ransom notes are very different from BianLian’s, but the scammers attempt to make them look convincing by including the real Tor data leak sites for the ransomware operation in the notes.

However, unlike typical ransomware demands, these fake notes state that BianLian is no longer negotiating with victims. Instead, the victim has 10 days to make a Bitcoin payment to prevent data from being leaked.

Each ransom note includes a ransom demand ranging between $250,000 and $500,000, a freshly generated Bitcoin address to send payment, and a QR code for the Bitcoin address.

Arctic Wolf said that all healthcare organizations had their ransom demand set to $350,000, which is the same as the one shared by a healthcare company with BleepingComputer, as shown below.

Furthermore, Arctic Wolf states that two ransom notes the researchers saw included legitimate compromised passwords to add legitimacy to the demand.

“In at least two letters, the threat actor included a compromised password within the How did this happen? section, almost certainly in an attempt to add legitimacy to their claim.” explained Arctic Wolf.

The consensus in the reports is that these ransom notes are fake and are only designed to scare executives into paying a ransom, as there are no signs of an actual breach.

“While GRIT cannot confirm the identity of the letter’s authors at this time, we assess with a high level of confidence that the extortion demands contained within are illegitimate and do not originate from the BianLian ransomware group,” explains GuidePoint Security researcher Grayson North.

However, this does not mean the emails should be ignored. Due to the widespread mailing of these notes, all IT and security admins should notify executives about the scam so that they are aware and do not waste time and resources worrying about them.

These fake ransom notes are an evolution of the email extortion scams that have become so popular since 2018. However, instead of targeting personal emails, they are now targeting the CEOs of corporations.

BleepingComputer contacted the BianLian ransomware operation to see if they were involved with these mailings, but a reply was not immediately available.